Operations Management

BU 385

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Product Design (Ch 4)

Reliability (Supplement to Ch 4)

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Midterm 1 Review

Today

Introduction to Reliability
Measures of Reliability

Series System
Parallel system
Combination of Series and Parallel Systems
Economic Analysis of back-up
Availability

Failure Rate

MTTF, MTTR
Exponential and Normal Distribution

Reliability

A system is reliable if it performs its

intended functions when required

Measures of Reliability

Probability that the system works

At an instant in time (consistency)

Over a specific length of time

Length of time can have a distribution.

Examples: Exponential, Normal

Availability

Mean Time to Failure (MTTF)

Mean Time to Repair (MTTR)

Reliability: Instant in Time

No time dimension

Reliability is 90%
This implies that the system will work on an
average 90% of the time it is switched on
In other words, 90 times out of 100, the
system will succeed in doing its intended
function
If there are 100 such systems, 90 of them
will work when switched on

Reliability: Length of Time

Probability that the system is on for a

given length of time
System can be on or off.
The length of on time can have any
probability distribution

Examples: Exponential, Normal

Example 1: Instant in Time (System in

Series)

System in Series

Stage 1: Mixing machine

Stage 2: Baking Oven
Stage 3: Decorating machine

Materials and Ingredients for ONE cake are

added to the Mixing Machine. Output from
Mixing goes to Baking and then to Decorating
The system succeeds if each of the three
steps works successfully
If each stage has a 90% chance of finishing
successfully, what is the reliability of the
system?

Example 1 contd.
Stage

Mixing

Baking

Decorati
ng

Reliability

0.9

0.9

0.9

Reliability =
Input

Mixing

Oven

Decorating

Output

System Reliability for a series system

0.9x0.9x0.9 = 0.729

R1*R2*R3**Rn

Reliability of a series system is less than

the reliability of the least reliable
machine in the series

Example 2: Instant in Time: System in

Parallel
There

are three Parallel Ovens

Baking

Oven-1, Baking Oven-2, Baking Oven-3

Unbaked

materials and Ingredients for ONE cake are sent to

Oven-1
If

Oven-1 fails, the materials move automatically to Oven-2

as unbaked ready to be baked. If Oven-2 fails, the materials

move automatically to Oven-3 as unbaked ready to be
baked. If Oven-3 fails then the OVEN System has failed and
the materials will be discarded. If all goes well with the
ovens, the output is a baked cake
If

each oven has a 90% chance of finishing successfully,

what is the reliability of the system, that is, the probability

that the system will work successfully?

Example 2 contd.

Reliability

OVEN-1

OVEN-2

OVEN-3

0.9

0.9

0.9

System Reliability =

No of Successes

1- (1-0.9)(1-0.9)(1-0.9) = 1- 0.001 = 0.999

Reliability of a Parallel System = 1 - (1-R 1)(1-R2)(1R3)

Reliability of a Parallel System (System with

backup) is greater than reliability of the most
reliable machine in the parallel system

Example 3: Instant in Time

(Series and Parallel Systems)

Stage 1: Mixing Machine

Stage 2: Baking Oven-1, Baking Oven-2, Baking Oven-3

Stage 3:

Materials and Ingredients for ONE cake are added to the Mixing Machine. If

Decorating Machine

all goes well, the output goes to the Baking Oven system as Good Materials
otherwise it goes as BAD materials and discarded

There are three ovens in parallel in the Baking Oven system. If Oven-1 fails,
the materials move automatically to Oven-2 as unprocessed ready to be
processed. If Oven-2 fails, the materials move automatically to Oven-3 as
unprocessed ready to be processed. If Oven-3 fails then the OVEN system
has failed. If all goes well with the ovens, that is if at least one of the ovens
does not fail then the output goes to the decorating machine as Good
Materials otherwise it is BAD and discarded. If all goes well in the
decorating machine the cake comes out as good cake otherwise as a bad
cake and discarded

If the mixing and decorating each has a reliability of 90%, and the ovens in
the oven system have reliabilities of 80%, 90% and 70% in any order,
is the reliability of the system?

what

Example 3 contd.
Oven3 (0.7)

Oven2 (0.8)

MIXING

Decorating (0.9)

Oven1 (0.9)

(0.9)

Parallel Oven System

OVEN-1

OVEN-2

OVEN-3

Mixing

Success
Rate

0.9
0.9

Decoratin
g
1- (1-0.9)(1-0.8)(1-0.7) = 1- 0.006 = 0.994

0.9

Reliability

System Reliability =

0.8

0.7

0.9 (0.994) (0.9) = 0.80514

0.9
0.9

Example 4: Instant in Time (Combining

Series and Parallel Systems)

Stage 1: Mixing Machine

Stage 2: Three baking Ovens in parallel

Stage 3:

Two Decorating machines in

parallel

Reliability of each machine is 0.9

What is system reliability?

Answer:
(0.9)[1-(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)][1-(0.1)(0.1)]

= 0.8901

Example 5: Economic Analysis of Backup

Systems

A product design engineer must decide if a

redundant component is cost-justified in a
certain system. The system in question
has a critical component with a prob. of .
98 of operating. System failure would
involve a cost of $20,000. For a cost of
$100, a switch and backup component
could be added that would automatically
transfer the system to the backup
component in the event of a failure.
Should the backup be added if the switch
and backup operating prob. is also .98?

Example 5 (cont): Reliability?

Backup
R=0.98

Component

R=0.98

Component
R=0.98

Reliability of a System with No backup = R1 = 0.98

Reliability of a Parallel System with backup

= 1 (1-R1)(1-R2)
= 1 (1- 0.98)(1-0.98)
= 0.9996

Example 5 (cont): Economy Analysis

Method 1
Expected Failure Cost: (1-Reliability)(Failure Cost)
Expected Failure Cost: No Backup : (1-0.98)20000 = 400
Expected Failure Cost: Backup Option: (1-0.9996)20000 = 8
Therefore, we could pay up to 392 for a backup
Backup investment of 100 is good

Method 2
Total Expected Cost with the Backup Option
= Cost of Backup Switch + Expected Failure Cost = 100 + 8 = 108
Total Expected Cost with no backup = 400
which is higher than the expected cost with backupTherefore backup option is better

Reliability: Length of Time

Probability that the system is on for a

given length of time
System can be on or off.
The length of on time can have any
probability distribution

Examples: Exponential, Normal

Failure rate

Failure Rate as a Function of Time

0
Burn-in

Steady state (random failures)

Time, T
Figure
Figure 4S-2
4S-2

Wear-out

The Bathtub Curve: Example

Wear out with

increasing failure

Initial high but

rate

decreasing rate of
failure

Random with constant mean

and standard deviation

Probability of Function for a Length of

Time

This is a common approach

Product warranties are based on this approach

failure rate
per hour

# of failures
total operating hours

If failure rate is constant over time, timequantity transposition is applicable

Can test 200 items for 2,500 hours

Can test 400 items for 1,250 hours
Can test 1 item for 500,000 hours

Mean Time to Failure

MTTF = Mean Time to Failure

Mean time it works before failing

Mean on time

MTTF

1
failure rate

Availability

MTTF = Mean Time to Failure

Mean time it works before failing

Mean on time

MTTR = Mean Time to Repair

Mean time it takes to repair the system

when it fails

MTTF
Availabili ty
MTTF MTTR
Ensure that MTTF and MTTR are in the same time dimensions

Example 6: Availability

Which of these systems is most

available?
PROVIDER

MTTF
(HOURS)

MTTR(HOURS)

60

36

24

SA = 60 / (60 + 4) = .9375 or 94%

A
SA = 36 / (36 + 2) = .9473 or 95%
B
SA = 24 / (24 + 1) = .96 or 96%
C

Provider C is most available

Example 7: Availability

A designer estimates that she can (a)

increase the average time between
failures by 5% at a cost of $450 or (b)
reduce the average repair time by 10%
at a cost of $200. Which option is best?
MTTF = 100 hours
MTTR = 4 hours

Example 7 (cont)

MTTF
100
Availability

0.9615
MTTF MTTR 100 4
Option 1: Increase MTTF by 5% from 100 to 105
Availability = 105/(105+4) = 0.9633
Cost: 450
Cost/unit increase = 450/(0.9633-0.9615) = $276,799

Option 2: Reduce MTTR by 10% from 4hrs to 3.6

Availability: 100/(100+3.6) = 0.9653
Cost: 200
Cost/unit increase = 200/(0.9653-0.9615) = $53,320

Reliability: Length of Time

Exponential Distribution
Reliability Prob(System does NOT fail before T) e
Prob(System fails before T )

T
MTTF

1 e

T
MTTF

Ensure that T and MTTF are expressed in

same time units

The Exponential Distribution

Example 8: Exponential distribution

By means of extensive testing, a

manufacturer has determined that its Super
Sucker Vacuum Cleaner models have an
expected life that is Exponential with a mean
of four years. Find the probability that one of
these cleaners will have a life that ends:
a. After the initial four years of services
b. Before four years of service are completed
c. Not before six years of service
d. Before 6 years
e. between 4 and 6 years

Example 8 (cont)
a. After the initial four years of services
P[T > 4] = e-T/MTTF = e-4/4 = 1/e = 0.3679
b. Before four years of service are completed
P[ T < 4] = 1-e-T/MTTF =1- e-4/4 = 1-1/e = 0.6321
c. Not before six years of service
P[T > 6] = e-T/MTTF = e-6/4 = 0.2231
d. Before 6 years
P[ T < 6] = 1-e-T/MTTF =1- e-6/4 = 0.7769
e. between 4 and 6 years
P[4 < T < 6] = P[T < 6] P[T < 4]
= 0.7769 0.6321 = 0.1448

Reliability Length of Time

Normal distribution
Property: A normal random variable, X,
with mean = and standard deviation =
can be transformed to a standard normal
random variable with mean 0 and
standard deviation 1 using
X the

Z
transformation

Standard Normal Distribution Table

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution-table.html

Understanding Standardized Scores

Example 9

The mean life of a certain ball bearing can

be modeled using a Normal distribution
with a mean of 6 years and a standard
deviation of 2 years. Determine each of the
following:
a) The prob. that a ball bearing will wear
before 7.5 years of services.
b)The prob. that a ball bearing will wear
out after 7.5 years of services.
c) the prob. it will wear out between 4 and
7 years
d) the prob. it will wear out before 4.5 years

Example 9 contd.: = 6 and = 2

a. The prob. that a ball bearing will wear
before 7.5 years
P[X < 7.5] = P[Z < (7.5-6)/2] = P[Z < 0.75] =
0.7734
b. The prob. that a ball bearing will wear out
after 7.5 years.
P[X > 7.5] = 1 0.7734 = 0.2266

Example 9 contd.: = 6 and = 2

c. The prob. it will wear out between 4 and 7
years
P[4 < X < 7] = P[X < 7] P[X < 4]
= P[Z < (7-6)/2] P[Z < (4-6)/2] = P[Z <
0.5] P[Z < -1]
= P[Z < 0.5] P[Z > 1]
= 0.6915 (1- 0.8413) = 0.6915 0.1587 =
0.5328
d. The prob. it will wear out before 4.5 years
P[ X < 4.5] = P[Z < (4.5-6)/2] = P[Z < -0.75]
= P[Z > 0.75] = 1 0.7734 = 0.2266

Length of Time: Economic Analysis

Example 10

The life span of Quality Printers specialty printer

is Normally distributed with a mean of 3.5 years
and a standard deviation of 0.5 year. Each printer
costs $499. When purchasing a printer, a
customer can choose between two warranty
plans, a 2-year warranty for $50 or a 3-year
warranty for $100. If the printer fails within the
warranty period, Quality Printer will replace it
free of charge. Assume that the probability for a
customer to have two successive failed printers
in a warranty period is zero. If a customer
decided to buy a warranty, which one (the 2-year
or 3-year warranty) is better in terms of cost?

Example 10 contd.: = 3.5 and = 0.5

2 year warranty
P[ X < 2] = P[Z < (2-3.5)/0.5] = P[Z < -3]
= P[Z > 3] = 1 - P[Z < 3] = 1- 0.9987 = 0.0013
Expected cost of failure = 499*0.0013 = 0.65

3 year warranty
P[ X < 3] = P[Z < (3-3.5)/0.5] = P[Z < -1]
= P[Z > 1] = 1 - P[Z < 1] = 1- 0.8413 = 0.1587
Expected cost of failure = 499*0.1587 = 79.19

Difference in cost between 3 year and 2 year

warranty is $50. The difference in loss if the printer
fails within 2 years or 3 years is 78.46 . Hence it is
better to buy a 3 year warranty.

Improving Reliability

Component Design
Production/Assembly Techniques
Testing
Redundancy/backups
Preventive Maintenance Procedures
User Education
System Design

Increase Overall Reliability

Next Class

Review for midterm one