Week 12 Statistical Process Control ATL

Quality Assurance
MT-257
SPC
Statistical Applications
Statistical Thinking
Collection, organization, analysis, interpretation and

presentation of Data
Understanding Variation is key

Variation occurs in all processes
Variation is the root cause of all problems
Scooter Inc.
Consider the Steer Support
Extrusion followed by CNC Machine
2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Scooter Inc.
Variation Still Exits from:
Differences in Raw Materials
Placement on CNC machine
Temperature of room at time of processing
Mistake in CNC programming
According to Design
Ideally should be 79.95 mm
Heights must fall between 79.90 80.00
If less than 79.0 Loose fit will rattle
If greater than 80.0 may not fit in gap
Variation Types
What to do?
Statistical
Process Control (SPC)
Take samples and measure accurately

On a daily basis
Define
performance measurements
Variation: Two Types

Common Causes
Common
Variation reflecting pure randomness in the
process
No two snowflakes are alike
No two flowers are exactly identical
The same with Scooter Inc.
Cannot Predict, but can Describe in form of Statistical
Distribution that applies to the larger population
Variation Types
Variation: Two Types
Assignable Causes
Changes
in the Parameters of
Underlying Statistical Distribution
of Process
Mistake in Programming of CNC
Wear & Tear of Extrusion Machine
Not
common to all steer support

parts
Only affect a subset
Distribution
will look different

Higher variance
Different Mean
Variation Types
Variation Types
Write
the letter R using your normal writing
hand
Switch
hands and write the R with the other
Use
the normal for first 4 and other for

remaining
Variation Types
Variation Types
Common
Cause Variation
Not every letter exactly the same
Still
a Common Cause Variation but much

larger
No Pattern to predict shape of next letter
Assignable
Causes Switch in Hand after 4th R
Common Cause Variability

Common Cause Variability
Common causes relate to the design of the
system
Expects a bell shaped or normal distribution
Further over time, this distribution should not
change
The process is said to be In control
Every Process shows this Common Variation
Time
Assignable Cause Variability

Assignable Cause
Operator error, bad batch, environment change, etc.
Over time a process may change
Changes can occur in the mean, variance or shape
The process is said to be Out of Control if such
changes occur
Time
10
SPC Objectives
Objectives of SPC
Alert
management of Assignable Causes
Do not want to alert management of small random
variations
Do Not alert on letter to next in the first row
Measure the amount of Variation in the Process
Create an Objective measure of Consistency
By how much is the first row of Rs better than the
second Row
Assign cause to variation currently perceived as pure
randomness and control these causes, leading to reduced
11
variation and higher consistency
Scooter Inc. Control Charts

Control Charts
Used to distinguish between
Assignable and Common Causes of
Variation
Track the Process Over-Time
Based on Samples
Sample Sizes between 2 10
Over several time periods; 20 to
50
Lets take 5 sample
sizes over a 25 day
period
12
Calculate x-bar and range for each
X-Bar and R Control Charts: Establishing the

X
&
Y
axis
Control Charts
Establish
X-axis:
Y-axis:
X-bar
the X & Y coordinates
Time Periods
Chart:
Mean of each Sample
R (Range) Chart
Range of each Sample
Mean
or
Range
of
each
Sampl
e
Calculate x-bar and range for each

sample
13
X-Bar and R Control Charts: Establishing the

X & Y axis
X-Bar Chart
Document Trends over time corresponding to Assignable Causes of

Variation
Identify unexpected drifts wear of tool
Jumps New person operating
is the Sample Size in each period
R Chart
Range:
Difference between highest and lowest in the
sample
A form of Variation in the Process
14
X-Bar and R Control Charts: Establishing

the X & X-bar
Y axis
Calculating
and Range for each Period
For Example: Day 14
X = (79.973 + 79.986 + 79.942 +

79.978 + 79.979) / 5
R = Max ( 79.973,79.986,
79.942,79.978,79.979)
Min (79.973,79.986,79.942, 79.978,
79.979)
Next need to establish the

upper and lower control
15
limits
X-Bar Control Charts: Upper and Lower Control

Limit
Upper and Lower Control LimitsX
for
Where A2 is based on
the number of
observations in the
subgroup (n)
16
R Control Charts: Upper and Lower Control

Limit
Upper and Lower Control Limits for R Chart
Where D3 & D4 are

based on the number
of observations in the
subgroup (n)
17
Scooter Inc. Control Charts
18
X-Bar and R Control Charts

X-Bar and R Charts
19
INTERPRETING CONTROL
CHARTS
NATURAL PATTERNS OF VARIATION
20
INTERPRETING CONTROL
CHARTS
X-Bar and R Charts
What is the Probability of 8 subsequent points above or below the center line?
(0.5)^
8 = 0.4% Highly Unlikely Corresponds to out of

control
21
Interpreting Control
Charts
Out of Control
What is the Probability?
A. 1 or more points fall outside control limits
B. 2 out of 3 consecutive points fall in the same region
C.
D.
E.
F.
A
4 out 5 consecutive points fall in the same region A
or B
9 consecutive points on the same side of
average
G
A B
D
F of decreasing
E
C points
6 consecutive
increasing
A
14 Bconsecutive points alternating up and down
C
B
A
22
Using X-Bar and Range Control Charts

Together
Use the X-Chart and R-Chart Together to determine if the process is
In Control
If.the process mean is Shifting Upwards
Sampling
Distribution
(process mean is
shifting upward)
UCL
Reveals shift
x-Chart
Then we will
see the
following:
LCL
UCL
R-chart
LCL
Does not
reveal shift
23
Together
Use the X-Chart and R-Chart Together to determine if the process is
In Control
If.the process Variability is Increasing
Sampling
Distribution
(process variability is
increasing)
UCL
x-Chart
Then we will
see the
following:
LCL
Does not
reveal increase
UCL
R-chart
Reveals increase
LCL
24
X-Bar using Standard Deviation & S-bar

Datachart
Pool
Data
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
0.65
0.75
0.75
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.75
0.6
0.65
0.6
0.8
0.85
0.7
0.65
0.9
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.65
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.65
0.65
0.7
0.85
0.8
0.7
0.75
0.75
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.75
0.75
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.8
0.65
0.6
0.7
0.65
0.75
0.8
0.7
0.65
0.75
0.65
0.8
0.85
0.6
0.9
0.85
0.75
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.85
0.6
0.85
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.75
0.65
0.7
0.65
0.85
0.7
0.75
0.85
0.85
0.75
0.75
0.85
0.8
0.5
0.65
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.8
0.65
0.65
0.6
0.6
0.85
0.65
0.75
0.65
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.75
0.75
0.65
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.85
0.65
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.65
0.8
0.75
0.65
0.7
0.65
a) Calculate X-Bar for each Subgroup

b) Calculate Standard Deviation for each Subgroup
c) Determine the X-Double bar
d) Determine the S-Bar (average of standard
Deviations)
X-bar Control
Limits
S-Bar Control
Limits
e) Find the Control Limits for both Charts

f) Plot X-bar and S-Values for each chart
25
X-Bar using Standard Deviation & S-bar

Datachart
Pool
Data
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
0.65
0.75
0.75
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.75
0.6
0.65
0.6
0.8
0.85
0.7
0.65
0.9
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.65
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.65
0.65
0.7
0.85
0.8
0.7
0.75
0.75
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.75
0.75
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.8
0.65
0.6
0.7
0.65
0.75
0.8
0.7
0.65
0.75
0.65
0.8
0.85
0.6
0.9
0.85
0.75
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.85
0.6
0.85
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.75
0.65
0.7
0.65
0.85
0.7
0.75
0.85
0.85
0.75
0.75
0.85
0.8
0.5
0.65
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.8
0.65
0.65
0.6
0.6
0.85
0.65
0.75
0.65
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.75
0.75
0.65
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.85
0.65
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.65
0.8
0.75
0.65
0.7
0.65
26
Attribute Control Charts
What if we have a Go, No-Go Situation

Binary:
Defective or Not Defective?

Does not have to based on a single dimension
Airline tracking Lost Luggage
Pharmacy providing wrong drugs to patient
We will use a P-Chart
Where P is the Fraction Defective
Sample
sizes are larger; 50 to 200

Especially if defects are rare
27
Constructing a P-Chart
1. Calculate P, Fraction of defects found for Sample
Size n
2. Determine the Average Fraction Defective

=
n = 100,
total number of defects in all groups = 194, Number of Parts
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
10
7= 5
13
9
7
8
9
12
6
15
8
5
8
8
10
8
4
6
6
9
Inspected
2400
n 100 100
np
6
7
p 0.06 0.07
0.1 0.07 0.05 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.06 0.15 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.08
100
8
0.1 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.08
P-average 0.081
28
3. Calculate the Upper and Lower Control Limits
a) If n is Constant
b) If n is Not Constant
Same equation but n = Average Sample Size
29
n 100 100
np
6
7
p 0.06 0.07
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
10
7
5
13
9
7
8
9
12
6
15
8
5
8
8
0.1 0.07 0.05 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.06 0.15 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.08
100 100 100 100 100 100 100

10
8
4
6
6
9
8
0.1 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.08
P-average 0.081
30
P-Chart Example
Five Production Runs are completed. Each had

some defectives. Compute the Control Limits for
P Chart based on the information given
31
P-Chart Example
Quantity is not the same

n = 1,550 / 5 = 310
32
P-Chart
Use the data to create a P-Chart
P-Chart
Calculate the Proportions for each Sub Group
Process Capability
Difference between Capability and In Control
Recall:
Both Rows are In Control

But does the second row meet Design Specifications for R? No
2nd
Row Process is Not Capable
Control
Charts only measure to what extent the process is operating

based on its Historical Behaviour
We Set Limits of 79.928 & 79.974 based on how the process
performed in past 25 days
35
Process Capability
Conditions
Three Primary Conditions for a Capable
Process:
1. Process is Statistically in Control
2. Test for Normality and Central
Tendency
Do not use averages, rather Individual

Measures
Process
Spread is
too wide
Process
Center
needs
adjustment
3. The Control Limits should be well
Inside the Tolerance Limits
Measured by Cp Process Capability

Index Cp = Minimum Value of 1.33
Capable Process
Spread centered and
within 36
Tolerance
Process Capability
Conditions
Three Primary Conditions for a Capable
Process:
Test for Normality and Central Tendency
Do not use averages, rather Individual

Measures
Draw the Nominal Dimension and
Tolerance Lines on the same distribution

and Calculate the Standard Deviation
If the Process is Centered
Use Cp
If the Process is Not Centered
Use Cpk
37
Process Capability
Conditions
Minimum Value Cp = 1.33
= 0.504 0.496
This is an Estimated Standard
Deviation Using Range
38
Process Capability
Conditions
What to do with a Process that is Not Capable?
Repair Existing Equipment
Modify Existing Process
Select a Better Process
Use 100% Inspection
Revise (Loosen) Drawing Tolerance where
possible
Purchase New Equipment
Etc.
39
Process Capability Scooter

Inc.
Design Specifications set by downstream or end
customer
Target Value = 79.950 mm
Tolerance level = 79.90, 80.00
How do we determine if the Process is Capable?

Tightness of the Design Specification
Difference between USL and LSL = 80.00 - 79.90 = 0.1
Amount of Variation in the current process

We estimate the Standard Deviation using R (for small sample
sizes)
= Estimated Standard Deviation

D2 = from Table based on Sample Size
40

Inc.
Scooter Inc. Capability
Recall R-bar = 0.0402
41
Process Capability
Combine these Two Measures into a Single Score
Process Capability Index

Measures
Allowable Tolerance relative to Actual
Variance
How can we Increase the Capability of the Process
in meeting Design Specifications?

Increase the Tolerance
Or
Decrease the Variability in the Process
42
Process Capability Analysis

Lower
Specification
Upper
Specification
=1
Process variability
matches specifications
Lower
Specification
>1
Upper
Specification
Process variability well

Lower
Upper
within specifications
SpecificationSpecification
If incapable:
redesign process or reduce variability
<1
use alternative process
use 100-percent inspection
relax design specification
Process variability
exceeds specifications
43

Inc.
Process Capability Index
USL
= 80.00
LSL = 79.90
0.017283
Experts
Recommend a Cp of 1.33
Motorola goal was 2.0 at every individual step
Corresponds to USL being 6 standard deviations
above and below the mean
Six-Sigma
44
Capability Example
The design specification for the width of a part is
between 101 mm and 101.8 mm. Which machines
are capable?
Machine
Standard
Deviation
Machine
Variability
6
0.13
0.78
0.08
0.48
0.16
0.96
Machine Capability
Cp = spec/6
45
Capability Example
The design specification for the width of a part is
between 101 mm and 101.8 mm. Which machines
are capable?
Machine
Standard
Deviation
Machine
Variability
6
Machine Capability
Cp = spec/6
0.13
0.78
0.80/0.78 = 1.03
0.08
0.48
0.80/0.48 = 1.67
0.16
0.96
0.80/0.96 = 0.83
Cp > 1.33 is desirable

Cp = 1.00 process is barely capable
Cp < 1.00 process is not capable
46
Using Cpk when Process Not

Centered
Use Cpk when process is Not Centered (But Normal)
C pk
USL LSL
min
,
3
3
A company creates small packages of cookies in a 16 gram
package. Government standards state that weights must be

within 5 percent of the weight advertised on the package
Inspectors test 1,000 packages of cookies and find an
average weight of 15.875 grams with a standard deviation

of 0.529 grams
47
Using Cpk Example

A company creates small packages of cookies in a 16 gram
package. Government standards state that weights must be

within 5 percent of the weight advertised on the package
Inspectors test 1,000 packages of cookies and find an
average weight of 15.875 grams with a standard deviation
of 0.529 grams
UCL= 16 + .05(16) = 16.8 grams
Mean = 15.875
LCL= 16 .05(16) = 15.2 grams
Center = (16.8 + 15.20) / 2 =

16.00
Will use Cpk
48
Using Cpk Example
C pk
C pk
Specification Limi
USL LSL
min
,
3
3
Upper Spec = 16.8

Lower Spec = 15.2
15.875 15.2 16.8 15.875

Min
;
3(.529)
3(.529)
C pk Min.4253; .5829
C pk .4253
Observed Weight
Mean = 15.875 g
Std. Dev = .529 g
< 1.33,
Process is
Not Capable
49

Week 12 Statistical Process Control ATL

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Week 12 Statistical Process Control ATL

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Quality Assurance

Collection, organization, analysis, interpretation and

Understanding Variation is key

Process Control (SPC)

Take samples and measure accurately

Variation: Two Types

Variation reflecting pure randomness in the

common to all steer support

will look different

the letter R using your normal writing

hands and write the R with the other

the normal for first 4 and other for

a Common Cause Variation but much

Causes Switch in Hand after 4th R

Common Cause Variability

Assignable Cause Variability

management of Assignable Causes

Do not want to alert management of small random

Scooter Inc. Control Charts

Calculate x-bar and range for each

X-Bar and R Control Charts: Establishing the

the X & Y coordinates

Calculate x-bar and range for each

X-Bar and R Control Charts: Establishing the

Document Trends over time corresponding to Assignable Causes of

is the Sample Size in each period

Difference between highest and lowest in the

X-Bar and R Control Charts: Establishing

X = (79.973 + 79.986 + 79.942 +

Next need to establish the

X-Bar Control Charts: Upper and Lower Control

R Control Charts: Upper and Lower Control

Where D3 & D4 are

Scooter Inc. Control Charts

X-Bar and R Control Charts

8 = 0.4% Highly Unlikely Corresponds to out of

Using X-Bar and Range Control Charts

X-Bar using Standard Deviation & S-bar

a) Calculate X-Bar for each Subgroup

e) Find the Control Limits for both Charts

X-Bar using Standard Deviation & S-bar

Attribute Control Charts

What if we have a Go, No-Go Situation

Defective or Not Defective?

sizes are larger; 50 to 200

2. Determine the Average Fraction Defective

100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Five Production Runs are completed. Each had

Quantity is not the same

Both Rows are In Control

Row Process is Not Capable

Charts only measure to what extent the process is operating

Three Primary Conditions for a Capable

Do not use averages, rather Individual

3. The Control Limits should be well

Inside the Tolerance Limits

Measured by Cp Process Capability

Three Primary Conditions for a Capable

Do not use averages, rather Individual

Draw the Nominal Dimension and

Tolerance Lines on the same distribution

Minimum Value Cp = 1.33

This is an Estimated Standard

Deviation Using Range