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Counting Methods)
Definitions
Event
any collection of results or outcomes of a
procedure
Simple Event
an outcome or an event that cannot be further
broken down into simpler components
Sample Space
all
Notation for
Probabilities
P - denotes a probability.
A, B, and C - denote specific events.
P (A) -
Copyright 2007
Pearson Education,
DEFINITIONS
Symbols:
P(event A) = the probability that event A will occur
P(red card) = the probability of a red card
P(~event A) = the probability of NOT getting event A [complement]
P(~red card) = the probability of NOT getting a red card
P(A & B) = the probability that both A and B happen [joint
probability]
P(red card & ace) = the probability of getting a red ace
Assessing Probability
1. Theoretical/Classical probabilitybased on theory (a
priori understanding of a phenomena)
e.g.: theoretical probability of rolling a 2 on a standard die is 1/6
theoretical probability of choosing an ace from a standard deck is 4/52
theoretical probability of getting heads on a regular coin is 1/2
Computing theoretical
probabilities:counting
methods
Great for
gambling! Fun to compute!
If outcomes are equally likely to occur
.0769
# of cards in the deck 52
Summary of Counting
Methods
Counting methods for computing probabilities
Permutations
order matters!
Combinations
Order doesnt
matter
With replacement
Without replacement
Without replacement
Summary of Counting
Methods
Counting methods for computing probabilities
Permutations
order matters!
With replacement
Without replacement
PermutationsOrder
matters!
A permutation is an ordered arrangement of objects.
With replacement=once an event occurs, it can occur again
(after you roll a 6, you can roll a 6 again on the same die).
Without replacement=an event cannot repeat (after you draw
an ace of spades out of a deck, there is 0 probability of
getting it again).
Summary of Counting
Methods
Counting methods for computing probabilities
Permutations
order matters!
With replacement
Permutationswith
replacement
memoryless After you get heads, you have an equally likely chance of getting a
heads on the next toss (unlike in cards example, where you cant draw the same card
twice from a single deck).
Whats the probability of getting two heads in a row (HH) when tossing a coin?
Toss 1:
2 outcomes
H
Toss 2:
2 outcomes
H
T
H
T
1 way to get HH
P ( HH ) 2
2 possible outcomes
Permutationswith
replacement
Whats the probability of 3 heads in a row?
Toss 3:
2 outcomes
Toss 2:
2 outcomes
H
T
Toss 1:
2 outcomes
1
P ( HHH ) 3
2 8 possible outcomes
HH
H
HHT
HTH
H
T
H
T
HTT
THH
H
T
H
T
THT
TTH
TTT
Permutationswith
replacement
When you roll a pair of dice (or 1 die twice),
whats the probability of rolling 2 sixes?
1 way to roll 6, 6
1
P (6,6)
2
36
6
2
36
6
the # of events
Summary of Counting
Methods
Counting methods for computing probabilities
Permutations
order matters!
Without replacement
Permutationswithout
replacement
Without replacementThink cards (w/o
reshuffling) and seating arrangements.
Permutationwithout
replacement
Permutationwithout
replacement
Seat Two:
only 4 possible
Seat One:
5 possible
A
B
A
B
C
D
E
Etc.
.
E
A
B
C
D
# of permutations = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 5!
Permutationwithout
replacement
What if you had to arrange 5 people in only 3 chairs
(meaning 2 are out)?
Seat Three:
Seat Two:
Only 4 possible
Seat One:
5 possible
A
B
A
B
C
D
E
only 3 possible
A
B
C
D
5 x 4 x3
5 x 4 x3 x 2 x1 5!
2 x1
2!
5!
(5 3)!
Permutationwithout
replacement
Note this also works for 5 people and 5
chairs:
5!
5!
5!
(5 5)! 0!
Permutationwithout
replacement
How many two-card hands can I draw from a deck
when order matters (e.g., ace of spades followed by
ten of clubs is different than ten of clubs followed by
52 cards
51 cards
ace of spades)
.
.
.
.
.
.
52!
52 x51
(52 2)!
Factorial Rule
A collection of n different items can be
arranged in order n! different ways.
(This factorial rule reflects the fact that
the first item may be selected in n
different ways, the second item may be
selected in n 1 ways, and so on.)
Copyright 2007
Pearson Education,
Permutations versus
Combinations
When different orderings of the same
items are to be counted separately, we
have a permutation problem, but when
different orderings are not to be counted
separately, we have a combination
problem.
Copyright 2007
Pearson Education,
Practice problems:
1.
2.
Answer 1
1.
P(success) = 1 (theres only way to get it right!) / total # of guesses she could make
Total # of guesses one could make randomly:
glass one:
4 choices
glass two:
3 vintages left
glass three:
2 left
= 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 4!
glass four:
no degrees of freedom left
Answer 2
2.
Summary of Counting
Methods
Counting methods for computing probabilities
Combinations
Order doesnt
matter
Without replacement
2. CombinationsOrder
doesnt matter
Introduction to combination function,
or choosing
n
Written as: n C r or
Spoken: n choose r
Combinations
How many two-card hands can I draw from a deck
when order does not matter (e.g., ace of spades
followed by ten of clubs is the same as ten of clubs
52 cards
51 cards
followed by ace of spades)
.
.
.
.
.
.
52 x51
52!
2
(52 2)!2
Combinations
How many five-card hands can I draw from a deck
when order does not matter?49 cards 48 cards
50 cards
51 cards
52 cards
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
52 x51x50 x 49 x 48
?
.
.
.
Combinations
1
.
2
.
3
.
.
Combinations
1
.
2
.
3
.
.
Combinations
Thats a permutation
without
replacement.
5! = 120
52 x51x50 x 49 x 48
52!
total # of 5 - card hands
5!
(52 5)!5!
Combinations
(52 2)!2!
52!
(52 5)!5!
r-card sets?
52!
(52 r )! r!
n!
n-cards?
r ( n r )! r!
n
Summary: combinations
If r objects are taken from a set of n objects without replacement and
disregarding order, how many different samples are possible?
n!
r (n r )!r!
n
ExamplesCombinations
A lottery works by picking 6 numbers from 1 to
49. How many combinations of 6 numbers could
you choose?
49!
13,983,816
6 43!6!
49
Examples
How many ways can you get 3 heads in 5 coin tosses?
5!
10
3 3!2!
5
Summary of Counting
Counting methods for computing probabilities
Methods
Combinations
Order doesnt
matter
Permutations
order matters!
With replacement: nr
Without replacement:
n(n-1)(n-2)(n-r+1)=
n!
(n r )!
Without
replacement:
n
n!
(n r )!r!
Gambling, revisited
52x51
Denominator 52 C 2
1326
2
26
So, P(pair of the same color)
1.96% chance
1326
P(any pair) =
# pairs
total # of two card combinations 1326
4! 4 x3
6
2!2!
2
4! 4 x3
number of different possible pairs of kings 4 C 2
6
2!2!
2
...
number of different possible pairs of aces 4 C 2
78
P(any pair)
5.9% chance
1326
312
P(two cards of the same suit)
23.5% chance
1326
26
Denominator = 1326
So, P (two cards of the same color) = 650/1326 = 49%
A chance
little non-intuitive? Heres another way to look at it
52 cards
From a Red branch: 26 black left, 25 red left
26x25 RR
26 red branches
50/102
26 black branches
26x26 RB
From a Black branch: 26 red left, 25 black left
Not
26x26 BR quite
26x25 BB 50/100
.
.
.
.
.
.
Rational strategy?
To bet or fold?
Rational strategy?
**Trick! P(at least 1) = 1- P(0)
Rational strategy?
P(at least one pair)= 1-P(no pairs)=
1-(.94)40=1-8%=92% chance
P(>=1 same suit)= 1-P(all different suits)=
1-(.765)40=1-.00002 ~ 100%
P(>=1 same color) = 1-P(all different colors)=
1-(.51) 40=1-.000000000002 ~ 100%
Rational strategy
Practice problem:
**Trick!
In this class?
--Jan?
--Feb?
--March?
--April?
--May?
--June?
--July?
--August?
--September?
.