Cosmic Rays

and

Space Weather
Erwin O. Flckiger
Laurent Desorgher, Rolf Btikofer, Benot Pirard

Physikalisches Institut
University of Bern
erwin.flueckiger@space.unibe.ch

The
Cosmic Ray
Space Weather
System

87% p
12%
& ..

Galactic and Solar Cosmic Rays

Main Space Weather
Domain at present

ACE, GOES

AMS, BESS, PAMELA,

Neutron Monitors

Special Detectors

AUGER,
Muon Telescopes

Flux: ~35 orders of magnitude / Energy: ~ 14 orders of magnitude

Worldwide Neutron Monitor Network

Detector Response
(Parameterized Yield Function)
p
Cascade of
Secondary Cosmic Rays
in the Atmosphere
neutrons
& protons

Neutron Monitors

Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

1991-2001

Geomagnetic
Shielding
of
Galactic
Cosmic Rays

Latitude Dependence of
Cosmic Ray Intensity
(sea level)

Earth

Solar Minimum
Solar Maximum

Solar Cosmic Rays

Solar Flare

Charged
Particles

Sun
Earth
Electromagnetic
Radiation
& Neutrons

Solar Energetic Particle Event Alert

In the January 20,

2005 GLE, the
earliest neutron
monitor onset
preceded the
earliest Proton
Alert issued by
the Space
Environment
Center by
14 minutes

Neutron Monitors
can provide the
earliest alert of a
Solar Energetic
Particle Event

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

 GLE Alert Study: a GLE Alert is issued when 3 stations of Spaceship

Earth (plus South Pole) record a 4% increase in 3-min averaged data
With 3 stations, false alarm rate is near zero
GLE Alert precedes SEC Proton Alert by ~ 10-30 min
Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Solar Cosmic Ray Events

Forecasting Intensity / Time Profile

September 29, 1989 GLE: forecasting of total neutron intensity

(time t is in minutes after 11.40 UT)
circles observed total neutron intensity
curves forecasting
Dorman et al., 2005

Solar Cosmic Rays

Evaluation of Radiation Doses

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event

Neutron Monitor Observations

Method
From NM Data, outside of the Magnetosphere:
- Apparent Source Direction
- Pitch Angle Distribution
- Rigidity Spectrum
PLANETOCOSMICS: - Asymptotic Directions
(MAGNETOCOSMICS)
- Cutoff Rigidities
Spectrum at the top
of the Atmosphere
for specified arrival
directions
PLANETOCOSMICS:
- Cascade in the Atmosphere
- Secondary Spectra
Secondary Spectra Dosage
Pelliccioni et al., Overview of Fluence to
Effective Dose and Fluence to Ambient Dose Conversion Coefficients for High Energy Radiation Calculated Using the
FLUKA Code, Radiation Protection Dosimetry 2000;88:4:279-297

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event

Radiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude
Apatity NM

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event

Radiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude
Apatity NM

Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth

Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth

The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle Event

Radiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude
Notification of Ground Level Event:
December 13th, 2006
Assessment of doses by the EURADOS
Working Group `Aircraft Crew Dosimetry`

For normal aircraft altitudes and for higher latitudes, for instance for
Europe to US west coast or Japan routes, initial estimates indicate
that the additional doses should not exceed 40 Sv/flight.
Final estimates will be produced after analysis of satellite and ground
monitor data, and any inflight measurements results.
.
http://www.euradnews.org/

GLEs during Solar Cycles 19-23

30th ICRC; Paper 715, Shea & Smart

CMEs
Interplanetary Shocks
Geomagnetic Storms

Warning of Approaching Disturbance

CME / Interplanetary Shock Geomagnetic Storm

Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab

Directional Viewing of Ground Based CR Detectors

Interplanetary Space
Magnetopause

Bending of Particle
Trajectories in the
Earths Magnetic Field

Cascade of
Secondary Cosmic Rays
in the Atmosphere
neutrons
& protons

muons

Neutron Monitors

Muon Telescopes

Directional Viewing

Sun
180

IMF

90
30S
60S

Example: Five selected viewing directions of the

MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald
(~ 54N, ~ 13E)
(GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)

Directional Viewing

Sun

IMF

Example: 24-hour rotation of five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG

Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald
(GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)

Muon Diagnostics
Loss-cone Precursors
Nagashima et al. [1992], Ruffolo [1999]

Intensity deficit
confined in a cone

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Muon Diagnostices
Loss Cones appear as a Predecrease when viewed by a single detector

Event on December 14, 2006 observed by muon detector in So Martinho, Brazil

As detector viewing directions rotate through loss cone, a predecrease is seen first from
the East, then from Vertical, and finally from West

Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Muon Diagnostices

URAGAN
muon
hodoscope

ICRC 2007, Paper 298, Timashkov et al.

Loss Cones Can Be Seen in a

Bubble Plot in Large Events

In this bubble plot, each circle

represents a directional channel
in a muon telescope
Circle is plotted at time of
observation (abscissa) and pitch
angle of asymptotic viewing
direction (ordinate)
Solid circles indicate a deficit
intensity relative to
omnidirectional average, and
open circles indicate excess
intensity; scale is indicated at
right of plot
Loss cone is evidenced by large
solid circles concentrated near
0O pitch angle
Figure adapted from Munakata
et al., J. Geophys. Res., 105,
27457-27468, 2000.
Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop

Spaceship Earth
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/spaceweather/
11-station network of neutron monitors strategically located to provide precise, real-time,
3-dimensional measurements of the cosmic ray angular distribution. Participating institutions
include the University of Delaware, IZMIRAN (Moscow Region, Russia), Polar Geophysical
Institute (Apatity, Russia), Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (Russia), Institute of
Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and
Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Australian Antarctic Division (Hobart), and the University of
Tasmania (Hobart).

Spaceship Earth Loss Cone Display

and Bidirectional Streaming Display

Muon Network Loss Cone Display

and Bidirectional Streaming Display

CMEs
Interplanetary Shocks
Geomagnetic Storms

Geo-effectiveness
Predictions limited

The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm

The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm

The 14 December 2006 Forbush Decrease

Modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity
~5% Decrease at mid-latitude

GLE

Jungfraujoch Neutron Monitor

Space Weather Networks

e.g.
- Spaceship Earth
- Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC) in Armenia
- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center
- MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald
- Space Environmental Viewing and Analysis Network (SEVAN)
- FP-7 Program NMDB (Real Time Neutron Monitor Data Base)
Kick-off meeting January 2008

Summary and Conclusions

Galactic and solar cosmic rays play a significant role in all space
weather scenarios

Solar cosmic ray particle events:

- Forecasting of occurrence not possible at present stage
- New analysis techniques allow limited alert and prognosis of
characterstics of ongoing events
- Quantitative modelling (e.g. of radiation dosis at aircraft
altitude) needs expertise in a broad field of topics

Solar/geomagnetic storms:
- Inner heliosphere screening: Warning of approaching
disturbances possible with neutron monitor and muon
telescope data

New Hybrid Particle Detectors measuring multiple secondary

particle fluxes have a large potential

Global detector networks operating in real time are essential for

space weather applications!