Chapter 12

Chapter 12
Sample Surveys
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.
Background
We have learned ways to display, describe, and

summarize data, but have been limited to
examining the particular batch of data we have.
To make decisions, we need to go beyond the
data at hand and to the world at large.
Lets investigate three major ideas that will allow
us to make this stretch
Slide 12 - 3
Idea 1: Examine a Part of the Whole
The first idea is to draw a sample.

Wed like to know about an entire population of
individuals, but examining all of them is usually
impractical, if not impossible.
We settle for examining a smaller group of
individualsa sampleselected from the
population.
Slide 12 - 4
Idea 1: Examine a Part of the Whole (cont.)
Sampling is a natural thing to do. Think about

sampling something you are cookingyou taste
(examine) a small part of what youre cooking to
get an idea about the dish as a whole.
Slide 12 - 5
Idea 1: Examine Part of the Whole (cont.)
Opinion polls are examples of sample surveys,

designed to ask questions of a small group of
people in the hope of learning something about
the entire population.
Professional pollsters work quite hard to
ensure that the sample they take is
representative of the population.
If not, the sample can give misleading
information about the population.
Slide 12 - 6
Bias
Sampling methods that, by their nature, tend to

over- or under- emphasize some characteristics of
the population are said to be biased.
Bias is the bane of samplingthe one thing
above all to avoid.
There is usually no way to fix a biased sample
and no way to salvage useful information from it.
The best way to avoid bias is to select individuals
for the sample at random.
The value of deliberately introducing randomness
is one of the great insights of Statistics.
Slide 12 - 7
Idea 2: Randomize
Randomization can protect you against factors

that you know are in the data.
It can also help protect against factors you are
not even aware of.
Randomizing protects us from the influences of
all the features of our population, even ones that
we may not have thought about.
Randomizing makes sure that on the average
the sample looks like the rest of the population.
Slide 12 - 8
Randomizing (cont.)
Not only does randomizing protect us from bias, it

actually makes it possible for us to draw
inferences about the population when we see
only a sample.
Such inferences are among the most powerful
things we can do with Statistics.
But remember, its all made possible because we
deliberately choose things randomly.
Slide 12 - 9
Idea 3: Its the Sample Size
How large a random sample do we need for the

sample to be reasonably representative of the
population?
Its the size of the sample, not the size of the
population, that makes the difference in sampling.
Exception: If the population is small enough and
the sample is more than 10% of the whole
population, the population size can matter.
The fraction of the population that youve sampled
doesnt matter. Its the sample size itself thats
important.
Slide 12 - 10
Does a Census Make Sense?
Why bother determining the right sample size?

Wouldnt it be better to just include everyone and
sample the entire population?
Such a special sample is called a census.
Slide 12 - 11
Does a Census Make Sense? (cont.)
There are problems with taking a census:

It can be difficult to complete a censusthere
always seem to be some individuals who are
hard (or expensive) to locate or hard to
measure; or it may be impractical - food.
Populations rarely stand still. Even if you could
take a census, the population changes while
you work, so its never possible to get a perfect
measure.
Taking a census may be more complex than
sampling.
Slide 12 - 12
Populations and Parameters
Models use mathematics to represent reality.

Parameters are the key numbers in those
models.
A parameter that is part of a model for a
population is called a population parameter.
We use data to estimate population parameters.
Any summary found from the data is a statistic.
The statistics that estimate population
parameters are called sample statistics.
Slide 12 - 13
Notation
We typically use Greek letters to denote

parameters and Latin letters to denote statistics.
Slide 12 - 14
Simple Random Samples
We draw samples because we cant work with the

entire population.
We need to be sure that the statistics we
compute from the sample reflect the
corresponding parameters accurately.
A sample that does this is said to be
representative.
Slide 12 - 15
Simple Random Samples (cont.)
We will insist that every possible sample of the size we

plan to draw has an equal chance to be selected.
Such samples also guarantee that each individual
has an equal chance of being selected.
With this method each combination of people has an
equal chance of being selected as well.
A sample drawn in this way is called a Simple
Random Sample (SRS).
An SRS is the standard against which we measure
other sampling methods, and the sampling method on
which the theory of working with sampled data is based.
Slide 12 - 16
To select a sample at random, we first need to

define where the sample will come from.
The sampling frame is a list of individuals from
which the sample is drawn.
Once we have our sampling frame, the easiest
way to choose an SRS is to assign a random
number to each individual in the sampling frame.
Slide 12 - 17
Samples drawn at random generally differ from

one another.
Each draw of random numbers selects
different people for our sample.
These differences lead to different values for
the variables we measure.
We call these sample-to-sample differences
sampling variability.
Slide 12 - 18
Stratified Sampling
Simple random sampling is not the only fair way

to sample.
More complicated designs may save time or
money or help avoid sampling problems.
All statistical sampling designs have in common
the idea that chance, rather than human choice,
is used to select the sample.
Slide 12 - 19
Stratified Sampling (cont.)
Designs used to sample from large populations

are often more complicated than simple random
samples.
Sometimes the population is first sliced into
homogeneous groups, called strata, before the
sample is selected.
Then simple random sampling is used within
each stratum before the results are combined.
This common sampling design is called stratified
random sampling.
Slide 12 - 20
Stratified Sampling (cont.)
The most important benefit is Stratifying can

reduce the variability of our results.
When we restrict by strata, additional samples
are more like one another, so statistics
calculated for the sampled values will vary less
from one sample to another.
Stratified random sampling can reduce bias.
Stratified sampling can also help us notice
important differences among groups.
Slide 12 - 21
Cluster and Multistage Sampling
Sometimes stratifying isnt practical and simple

random sampling is difficult.
Splitting the population into similar parts or
clusters can make sampling more practical.
Then we could select one or a few clusters at
random and perform a census within each of
them.
This sampling design is called cluster sampling.
If each cluster fairly represents the full
population, cluster sampling will give us an
unbiased sample.
Slide 12 - 22
Cluster and Multistage Sampling (cont.)
Cluster sampling is not the same as stratified

sampling.
We stratify to ensure that our sample represents
different groups in the population, and sample
randomly within each stratum.
Strata are internally homogeneous, but differ from

one another.
Clusters are more or less alike, are internally

heterogeneous and each resembling the overall
population.
We select clusters to make sampling more practical

or affordable.
Slide 12 - 23
Cluster and Multistage Sampling (cont.)
Sometimes we use a variety of sampling methods

together.
Sampling schemes that combine several
methods are called multistage samples.
Most surveys conducted by professional polling
organizations use some combination of stratified
and cluster sampling as well as simple random
sampling.
Slide 12 - 24
Systematic Samples
Sometimes we draw a sample by selecting

individuals systematically.
For example, you might survey every 10th
person on an alphabetical list of students.
To make it random, you must still start the
systematic selection from a randomly selected
individual.
When there is no reason to believe that the order
of the list could be associated in any way with the
responses sought, systematic sampling can give a
representative sample.
Slide 12 - 25
Systematic Samples (cont.)
Systematic sampling can be much less expensive

than true random sampling.
When you use a systematic sample, you need to
justify the assumption that the systematic method
is not associated with any of the measured
variables.
Slide 12 - 26
Defining the Who
The Who of a survey can refer to different groups,

and the resulting ambiguity can tell you a lot
about the success of a study.
To start, think about the population of interest.
Often, youll find that this is not really a welldefined group.
Even if the population is clear, it may not be a
practical group to study.
Slide 12 - 27
Defining the Who (cont.)
Second, you must specify the sampling frame.

Usually, the sampling frame is not the group
you really want to know about.
The sampling frame limits what your survey
can find out.
Slide 12 - 28
Then theres your target sample.

These are the individuals for whom you intend
to measure responses.
Youre not likely to get responses from all of
them. Nonresponse is a problem in many
surveys.
Slide 12 - 29
Finally, there is your samplethe actual

respondents.
These are the individuals about whom you do
get data and can draw conclusions.
Unfortunately, they might not be representative
of the sample, the sampling frame, or the
population.
Slide 12 - 30
At each step, the group we can study may be

constrained further.
The Who keeps changing, and each constraint
can introduce biases.
A careful study should address the question of
how well each group matches the population of
interest.
Slide 12 - 31
One of the main benefits of simple random

sampling is that it never loses its sense of whos
Who.
The Who in a SRS is the population of interest
from which weve drawn a representative
sample. (Thats not always true for other kinds
of samples.)
Slide 12 - 32
The Valid Survey
It isnt sufficient to just draw a sample and start

asking questions. A valid survey yields the
information we are seeking about thepopulation
we are interested in. Before you set out to survey,
ask yourself:
What do I want to know?
Am I asking the right respondents?
Am I asking the right questions?
What would I do with the answers if I had them;
would they address the things I want to know?
Slide 12 - 33
The Valid Survey (cont.)

These questions may sound obvious, but there are
a number of pitfalls to avoid.
Know what you want to know.
Understand what you hope to learn and from
whom you hope to learn it.
Use the right frame.
Be sure you have a suitable sampling frame.
Tune your instrument.
The survey instrument itself can be the source
of errors - too long yields less responses.
Slide 12 - 34
Ask specific rather than general questions.

Ask for quantitative results when possible.
Be careful in phrasing questions.
A respondent may not understand the question
or may understand the question differently than
the way the researcher intended it.
Even subtle differences in phrasing can make a
difference.
Slide 12 - 35
Be careful in phrasing answers.

Its often a better idea to offer choices rather
than inviting a free response.
Slide 12 - 36
The best way to protect a survey from

unanticipated measurement errors is to perform a
pilot survey.
A pilot is a trial run of a survey you eventually
plan to give to a larger group.
Slide 12 - 37
What Can Go Wrong?or,

How to Sample Badly
Sample Badly with Volunteers:

In a voluntary response sample, a large group of
individuals is invited to respond, and all who do
respond are counted.
Voluntary response samples are almost always

biased, and so conclusions drawn from them are
almost always wrong.
Voluntary response samples are often biased toward
those with strong opinions or those who are strongly
motivated.
Since the sample is not representative, the resulting
voluntary response bias invalidates the survey.
Slide 12 - 38

How to Sample Badly (cont.)
Sample Badly, but Conveniently:

In convenience sampling, we simply include
the individuals who are convenient.
Unfortunately, this group may not be
representative of the population.
Convenience sampling is not only a problem
for students or other beginning samplers.
In fact, it is a widespread problem in the
business worldthe easiest people for a
company to sample are its own customers.
Slide 12 - 39

How to Sample Badly (cont.)
Sample from a Bad Sampling Frame:

An SRS from an incomplete sampling frame
introduces bias because the individuals included
may differ from the ones not in the frame.
Undercoverage:
Many of these bad survey designs suffer from
undercoverage, in which some portion of the
population is not sampled at all or has a smaller
representation in the sample than it has in the
population.
Undercoverage can arise for a number of reasons,
but its always a potential source of bias.
Slide 12 - 40
What Else Can Go Wrong?
Watch out for nonrespondents.

A common and serious potential source of bias
for most surveys is nonresponse bias.
No survey succeeds in getting responses from
everyone.
The problem is that those who dont respond
may differ from those who do.
And they may differ on just the variables we
care about.
Slide 12 - 41
What Else Can Go Wrong? (cont.)
Dont bore respondents with surveys that go on

and on and on and on
Surveys that are too long are more likely to be
refused, reducing the response rate and
biasing all the results.
Slide 12 - 42
What Else Can Go Wrong? (cont.)
Work hard to avoid influencing responses.

Response bias refers to anything in the survey
design that influences the responses.
For example, the wording of a question can influence

the responses:
Slide 12 - 43
How to Think About Biases
Look for biases in any survey you encounter

before you collect the datatheres no way to
recover from a biased sample of a survey that
asks biased questions.
Spend your time and resources reducing biases.
If you possibly can, pilot-test your survey.
Always report your sampling methods in detail.
Slide 12 - 44
What have we learned?
A representative sample can offer us important

insights about populations.
Its the size of the same, not its fraction of the
larger population, that determines the precision
of the statistics it yields.
There are several ways to draw samples, all
based on the power of randomness to make them
representative of the population of interest:
Simple Random Sample, Stratified Sample,
Cluster Sample, Systematic Sample,
Multistage Sample
Slide 12 - 45
What have we learned? (cont.)
Bias can destroy our ability to gain insights from

our sample:
Nonresponse bias can arise when sampled
individuals will not or cannot respond.
Response bias arises when respondents
answers might be affected by external
influences, such as question wording or
interviewer behavior.
Slide 12 - 46
Bias can also arise from poor sampling methods:

Voluntary response samples are almost always
biased and should be avoided and distrusted.
Convenience samples are likely to be flawed
for similar reasons.
Even with a reasonable design, sample frames
may not be representative.
Undercoverage occurs when individuals
from a subgroup of the population are
selected less often than they should be.
Slide 12 - 47
Finally, we must look for biases in any survey we

find and be sure to report our methods whenever
we perform a survey so that others can evaluate
the fairness and accuracy of our results.
Slide 12 - 48

Chapter 12

Transféré par

Informations du document

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Chapter 12

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Chapter 12

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

We have learned ways to display, describe, and

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Idea 1: Examine a Part of the Whole

The first idea is to draw a sample.

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Idea 1: Examine a Part of the Whole (cont.)

Sampling is a natural thing to do. Think about

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Idea 1: Examine Part of the Whole (cont.)

Opinion polls are examples of sample surveys,

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Sampling methods that, by their nature, tend to

Randomization can protect you against factors

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Not only does randomizing protect us from bias, it

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Idea 3: Its the Sample Size

How large a random sample do we need for the

Does a Census Make Sense?

Why bother determining the right sample size?

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Does a Census Make Sense? (cont.)

There are problems with taking a census:

Populations and Parameters

Models use mathematics to represent reality.

We typically use Greek letters to denote

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Simple Random Samples

We draw samples because we cant work with the

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Simple Random Samples (cont.)

We will insist that every possible sample of the size we

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Simple Random Samples (cont.)

To select a sample at random, we first need to

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Simple Random Samples (cont.)

Samples drawn at random generally differ from

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Simple random sampling is not the only fair way

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Stratified Sampling (cont.)

Designs used to sample from large populations

Stratified Sampling (cont.)

The most important benefit is Stratifying can

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Cluster and Multistage Sampling

Sometimes stratifying isnt practical and simple

Cluster and Multistage Sampling (cont.)

Cluster sampling is not the same as stratified

Strata are internally homogeneous, but differ from

Clusters are more or less alike, are internally

We select clusters to make sampling more practical

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Cluster and Multistage Sampling (cont.)

Sometimes we use a variety of sampling methods

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Sometimes we draw a sample by selecting

Systematic Samples (cont.)

Systematic sampling can be much less expensive

Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Defining the Who