Multivariate Data Analysis

SRM CLASS ASSIGNMENT 1

GROUP DETAILS
Section D - Group 4

Roll No.
UM16198
UM16200
UM16225
UM16235
UM16238
UM16239
UM16245
UM16249
UMF16005

Name
Biswajit Dash
Divya Agrawal
Saurav Pattanaik
Sunil Patra
Swati Seemanchal Mohanty
Swati Sucharita Das
Ankit Pattanaik
Veeneet Acharya
Sumit Sandilya

AIM OF THE ANALYSIS

Objective: To conduct a multivariate analysis in order to find the
relationship between Raw Materials Expense, Power & Fuel Cost,
Employee Cost,Manufacturing Expenses, Selling and Admin
Expenses and Sales Revenue of TVS Motor. Both additive and
multiplicative models to be used for the same.

Data Set: For our analysis, we have collected a time series data set
of annual Expense (as mentioned above) of TVS Motor. and their Net
Sales (In Crores) from the year 2000 till 2010.

Data Source:
Prowess CMIE Database and http://www.tvsmotor.com/

Hypothesis:
Null Hypothesis H0: Annual Sales of TVS Motor is not related with
Raw Materials Expense, Power & Fuel Cost, Employee
Cost,Manufacturing Expenses, Selling and Admin Expenses of TVS
Motor.
Alternate Hypothesis H1: Annual Sales of TVS Motor Is related
with mentioned Expenses of TVS Motor.

DATA

Variables
A Priori Reasoning:
The Annual Sales is the total revenue generated by a company in
any given year. Since we know that the major expenses occurred
in an automobile industry are Raw Materials Expense, Power &
Fuel Cost, Employee Cost,Manufacturing Expenses, Selling and
Admin Expenses. So there shall be a relationship between
expenses and annual sales of automobile companies.
We would like to find the relationship between major annual
expenses and Sales of a pharma company.

Variables:
Dependent Variable (Y): We have taken Annual Sales as
dependent variable (in crores INR).
Independent Variable (X): We have taken major Annual
Expenses as mentioned as independent variables (in crores
INR).
Time Variable (T): We have used the Years as time variable
(T) (Time from 2000 to 2010 has been considered).

Additive Summary of Outputs

Depende
nt
Variable

Sales

Raw Packag
S&D Markt
Consta R&D
Mat
ing
Adjusted
R Square
Expens
Expens
Expense
R Square
nt
Expens Expens
e
e
e
e

Coefficie
-760.690
3.631
-7.502
9.833
.205
8.754
nt
Significa 0.4196 0.0940 0.2992 0.0738 0.5194 0.0066
nce
06
77
73
69
66
46
Standard
ized
0.2141
0.4587 0.0526 0.7452

0.4575
Coefficie
81
54
43
72
4
nt

.997

.995

816.890

Equation:
Y = -760.690+ 3.631*X1 7.502*X2 + 9.833*X3 + 0.205*X4+ 8.754*X5

Correlations
Packaging R&D
Expense
Expense
Packaging
Expense

Markt
Expense

S&D
Expense

1.000

.096

-.536

.397

-.698

.096

1.000

-.223

.823

-.738

-.536

-.223

1.000

-.512

.457

Markt Expense

.397

.823

-.512

1.000

-.901

S&D Expense

-.698

-.738

.457

-.901

1.000

R&D Expense

Correlations

Raw Mat
Expense

Raw Mat
Expense

MAPE

Year

Actual

Calculated

% Deviation

2013

82973.8

77951.9

6.05%

2014

95587.2

95081.0

0.53%

2015

102277.9

103640.0

1.33%

MAPE = 2.64%

Multiplicative Summary Output

Depende
nt
Variable

Log
Sales

Log
Log
Log
Log
LogPac
Raw
R&D
S&D
Markt
kaging R Square Adjusted
Constant
Mat
R Square
Expens Expens Expens
Expens
Expens
e
e
e
e
e

Coefficie
1.254
0.214
0.006
0.107
.161
0.462
nt
Significa
0.0160 0.9854 0.7212 0.1500 0.0241
8.04E-10
nce
77
74
63
03
01
Standard
ized
0.2472 0.0058 0.1079 0.1737 0.4697
Coefficie

67
84
06
36
54
nt

.998

.997

1488.197

Equation:
Ln(Y) = 1.254+ 0.214*(Ln(X1)) + 0.006*(Ln(X2)) + 0.107*(Ln(X3)) +
0.161*(Ln(X4))+ 0.462*(Ln(X5))

Correlations
Packaging
Expense

Correlations

Log R&D
Expense

Log Raw
Mat
Expense

Log Markt
Expense

Log S&D
Expense

Packaging
Expense

1.000

-.450

-.362

-.001

-.329

Log R&D
Expense

-.450

1.000

-.450

.644

-.454

Log Raw Mat

Expense

-.362

-.450

1.000

-.543

.486

Log Markt
Expense

-.001

.644

-.543

1.000

-.917

Log S&D
Expense

-.329

-.454

.486

-.917

1.000

MAPE

Year

Actual

Calculated

% Devation

2013

4.919

4.878

0.83%

2014

4.980

4.976

0.10%

2015

5.010

5.021

0.23%

MAPE = 0.39%

Interpretation

Multiplicative model is a better fit here due to the following

reasons.
Higher R2 value (0.998)
Lower MAPE value (0.39%) which signifies less
Forecasting error
From Standardized coefficients, it can be inferred that
packaging expense has a relatively high importance in
comparison to other parameters
Hence our null hypothesis is rejected and there is indeed
a relation between independent variables and dependent
variable

Posteriori
We found out that QA and QC play an important role in
pharma industry and also that pharma companies
especially cipla invest heavily in packaging costs.
It aims to pack capsules, syringes etc of different sizes.
The type of packing in adherence with norms makes it even
more challenging
We also found out that Cipla offers Package Development
profiles which are one of the highest payers in the market
There are also other factors apart from all these which play
a pivotal role. For eg the recent Cipla Roches Drug
patenting controversy affected sales and lowered Ciplas
profit percentage by 39%.

THANK YOU