S3 Kedokt Bag0.0

BIOSTATISTIKA:
Statistical Inference:
Population and Sample
Bagian 0.0
Prof. Suryo Guritno, Ph.D
Kepala KBK Statistika
Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UGM
Program S3 Non-Reguler
Ilmu Kedokteran dan Kesehatan
UGMUnit Epidemiologi dan Biostatistik Fakultas Kedokteran UGM
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Materi Kuliah
Pendahuluan
Statistika
Deskriptif
Probabilitas dan Variabel Random
Distribusi Probabilitas
Distribusi Sampling
Interval konfidensi
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Materi Kuliah
Uji
Hipotesis
Inferensi Statistika Dua Sampel
Pengantar Quality Improvement
Process Improvement dengan Control
Chart
Analisis Regresi Linear Sederhana
Regresi Ganda
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Materi Kuliah
Model
Building dan Model

Diagnostics
Peramalan Runtun Waktu
Rancangan Percobaan dan Analisis
Variansi
Uji Chi-Kuadrat
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Buku Pegangan
Daniel, W.W., (1999). Biostatistics: A
Foundation for Analysis in the Health
Sciences.7th Edition. Wiley Series.
Belle, G., Fisher, D. L., Heagerthy, P. J.
and T. Lumley, (2004). Biotstistics: A
Methodology for the Health Sciences.
2nd Edition. Wiley-Interscience
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What is Statistics?
Statistics is a collection of procedures and

principles for gathering data and analyzing
information when faced with uncertainty.
When we have a question that needs answering, we use statistics as a
method to find the answer. Statistics helps us to ask the right
question, collect the right data, and make the correct conclusion.
Statistics is not just about number crunching! Critical thinking skills
and common sense are far more important than mathematical ability.
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Statistics in a Nutshell
We use statistics to make conclusions about

populations from samples.
1. Draw a Representative
SAMPLE from the POPULATION
2. Describe the SAMPLE

Var 1
Var 2
Va 3
459
Brown
28
657
Red
43
321
Green
46
213
Blue
47
536
Blue
53
3. Use Rules of Probability and

Statistics to make Conclusions about
the POPULATION from the SAMPLE.
T = (x )/
P(x) = x(1-p)*(n-x)p
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Fundamental Rule for Data Inference
Data can be used to make inference about a much

larger group, if the sample can be considered to
be representative with regard to the question of
interest!
Example:
A) Wanted to know average hand span of female
college students in the US.
B) Wanted to know the typical fastest speed US
college students have ever driven.
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Simple Random Sample
A simple random sample is when every unit of the

population has the same chance of being selected
for the sample.
Simple random samples are often neither practical
nor ethical.
For example: Most clinical trials rely on volunteers. It

is unethical to administer a treatment to an
individual who does not wish to receive it.
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Types of Research Studies
Observational Studies: Researches simply observe

or question the participants about opinions,
behaviors, or outcomes.
Experiment (randomized experiment): Researchers

manipulate experimental units directly, and
measure the effect of the manipulation on some
outcome of interest.
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Example
Consider a researcher interested in the effect of garlic on
reducing the frequency of colds in the elderly.
Observational Approach: Ask a sample of elderly about

their diets and the extent to which they use garlic in
cooking or as a supplement. Also inquire about how
often they are ill.
Experimental Approach: Assign a random sample of

elderly volunteers to 3 treatments. Garlic in tablet form, a
garlic sauce to use in cooking, and a placebo sugar pill.
Record the incidence of colds.
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Relationships Between Variables

Cause and Effect Relationship:
When we do a study we are usually interested in a relationship

between two variables. Often one of the variables is naturally an
explanatory variable which may explain or cause differences in a
response variable.
Variable Types
1. Explanatory
Independent
2. Response
Dependent
Outcome
Examples:
1. Hours of sleep versus how well an individual does on an exam.
2. Type of medicine versus how quickly a headache disappears.
3. Weight
status (obese,
overweight, normal) of parent compared with the child.
Program
S3 Non-Reguler

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Relationships Between Variables

Other Relationships:
Not all relationships we are interested in are

necessarily cause and effect.
Examples:
1.
Might want to know if there is a correlation between

musical ability and mathematics.
2.
Might want to predict body fat percentage based on

weight, height, and waste size.
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Confounding Variables
A confounding variable is a variable that both affects the

response and also is related to the explanatory variable.
Confounding variables interfere with conclusions about cause
and effect relationships, and are a serious problem in
observational studies.
Example: 3.3 in the text:

Consider case study 1.5 where it was shown that those who
attend church regularly have lower blood pressure than those
who stayed home and watched religious services.
Possible Confounding Variables: Amount of Social Support, Health
Status, etc..
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More on Experiments
Randomized experiments allow us to determine

cause and effect relationships.
By randomizing you insure the different treatment

groups are approximately equal in all respects, so
that any difference in the outcome can be attributed
solely to the treatment.
The sample that is randomly assigned the

treatments still needs to be representative of the
population of interest!
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Experiment Terminology
Control Group: Consists of either no treatment, or the

standard treatment. Used to compare to the treatment of
interest to see if there is a real effect.
Placebo: Special kind of control group in drug studies. The

placebo is a fake drug that is given to patients in the control
group.
Blinding: To avoid biases from both the patient and researcher

it is best if both are blinded from knowing whether the patient
received the actual treatment or a placebo. Such an
experiment is called a double-blind experiment. A single-blind
experiment is one where either the patient or researcher does
not know the treatment.
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Experimental Designs
Basic Design: Subjects randomly assigned

treatments.
Block Design: Subjects are grouped into

homogenous blocks. Treatments are randomly
assigned within each block.
Matched-pair design: Subjects are either grouped into

pairs (each member of the pair receives a different
treatment), or the same individual receives multiple
treatments. Special case of a block design.
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Illustration of Experimental Designs

Treat A:
Treat B:
Basic
Block
Treat A:
Matched
Pairs
Treat A:
Treat B:
Treat A:
Treat B:
Treat B:
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More on Observational Studies
Retrospective Studies: Participants are asked to

recall past events.
Prospective Studies: Participants are followed into

the future and events are recorded. This is usually
preferred.
Case Control Study: A study in which those who have

a particular attribute are compared to controls who
do not. Controls are chosen to reduce the influence
ofProgram
confounding
variables.
S3 Non-Reguler
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Why Use Observational Studies?
Ethical Reasons: not always ethical to do an

experiment.
Examples: effectiveness of seatbelts, effect of
cocaine use on infant brain development, etc
Practical Reasons: long term experiments are not

always practical (very expensive!).
Examples: long term effect of low fat diet on overall
health, effect of a multivitamin on developing
cancer, etc.
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Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments and

Observational Studies
Concluding a cause and effect relationship in an observational

study.
Extending results inappropriately: the sample must be
representative of the population!
Interacting Variables: Variables that interact with the explanatory
variable and its relationship with the outcome variable.
Experimenter effects: Experimenter can influence the results.
Need blinding!
Ecological Validity: Study is somehow artificial, results do not
reflect the impact of variables in real life.
Relying on Memory: Retrospective cause and effect studies can
depend too heavily on a subjects memory.
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BIOSTATISTIKA:

Building dan Model

Statistics is a collection of procedures and

We use statistics to make conclusions about

2. Describe the SAMPLE

3. Use Rules of Probability and

Fundamental Rule for Data Inference

Data can be used to make inference about a much

Simple Random Sample

A simple random sample is when every unit of the

For example: Most clinical trials rely on volunteers. It

Types of Research Studies

Observational Studies: Researches simply observe

Experiment (randomized experiment): Researchers

Observational Approach: Ask a sample of elderly about

Experimental Approach: Assign a random sample of

Relationships Between Variables

When we do a study we are usually interested in a relationship

Ilmu Kedokteran dan Kesehatan

Relationships Between Variables

Not all relationships we are interested in are

Might want to know if there is a correlation between

Might want to predict body fat percentage based on

A confounding variable is a variable that both affects the

Example: 3.3 in the text:

Randomized experiments allow us to determine

By randomizing you insure the different treatment

The sample that is randomly assigned the

Control Group: Consists of either no treatment, or the

Placebo: Special kind of control group in drug studies. The

Blinding: To avoid biases from both the patient and researcher

Basic Design: Subjects randomly assigned

Block Design: Subjects are grouped into

Matched-pair design: Subjects are either grouped into

Illustration of Experimental Designs

More on Observational Studies

Retrospective Studies: Participants are asked to

Prospective Studies: Participants are followed into

Case Control Study: A study in which those who have

Why Use Observational Studies?

Ethical Reasons: not always ethical to do an

Practical Reasons: long term experiments are not

Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments and

Concluding a cause and effect relationship in an observational

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