A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

Desarrollo Estratgico de un

Desarrollo Estratgico de un Campo :

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Cuando un simple
modelo estocstico
conviene ms que un
simulador numrico.

Victor Sancho
Vincente
Vicente Berrios
Berrios
Oman Oquendo

STOIIP

SCGIIP

(MSm3)

(MSm3)

Mean Reward

3,77

75,46

Standard Deviation

1,87

37,31

90 Percent Probability

1,50

29,90

50 Percent Probability

3,62

72,39

10 Percent Probability

6,22

124,30

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Field Description
Generalities
Geology
Production History
Numerical Simulation

Reservoir Development Strategy

Stochastic Model
Reserves Estimations
Water Management
Infill Drilling

Conclusions

CONTENT:

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Where it is

Seal
Picad
a

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION
Discovered in 1963
Area: 15.000 acres (62 Km2)
Lease Ending: Nov. 2017
Reservoir Depth: 2750 (850 mts)
Reservoir Temperature: 110 F (43.3C)
API: 25
GOR: 120 ft3/Bl (22 m3/m3)
Drilled Wells: 306
Active Wells: 174
Injector Wells: 71
Well Spacing: 500 mts
Actual Gross Production: 105.546 BOPD, (16.781 m3/d)
Actual Oil production Rate: 5.604 BOPD, (900 m3/d)
Actual Water Injection Rate: 107.622 bbl/d (17.101 m3/d)
Water Cut: 94 %
Cummulative Oil Production: 122.0 MMBls (19.4 MMm3)

Basic Information

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Geology

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Discovered in 1963

How it was

Primary Drainage 1963 1976: 130 wells drilled, 8500 B/D (1350 m3/d)
25 % water cut, 2% annual decline rate,
Np: 26.4 MMBls (4.2 MMm3), RF: 7%

1976 Water Flooding Started:

Pilot Project 6300 BWPD, 6 inyectors.

1978 1979 Pattern Expansion: 61 new wells drilled, reached max. Oil rate
15.400 BOPD (2450 m3/d).

80s 90s Full scaled project: 71 injector wells, 10.000 BWPD, 11.600 BOPD
(1850 m3/d), 4% decline rate.

2000 today Project Maturity: 20.000+ BWPD, 5600 BOPD (900 m3/d), 95%
water cut, Np: 120.75 MMBls (19.2 MMm3),
RF:32%
180 active wells, 72 injectors

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Production HistoryPrimary
Apr
Apr 68:
68: 8500
8500 B/D,
B/D, 1%
1% WOR
WOR

Production
Production rate
rate proportional
proportional to
to Active
Active wells.
wells.
Decline
Decline rates
rates almost
almost constant
constant

Apr
Apr 76:
76: 2%
2% Decline
Decline rate,
rate, 25%
25% WOR.
WOR.
A
waterflooding
Pilot
Project
was
A waterflooding Pilot Project was initiated
initiated

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Production HistorySecondary
Primary
Apr
B/D,
Production
increased
Apr 68:
68: 8500
8500
B/D, 1%
1% WOR
WOR
Production
increased proportionally
proportionally to
to

new
new wells
wells entry
entry

Decline
Decline rate
rate constant
constant in
in 4%
4% annually.
annually.
Inyection
rate
BWPD
Inyection
rate 63.000
63.000to
BWPD
Production
rate
Active
Production
rate proportional
proportional
to
Active wells.
wells.
Decline
Decline rates
rates almost
almost constant
constant

Apr
Apr 76:
76: 2%
2% Decline
Decline rate,
rate, 25%
25% WOR.
WOR.
A
waterflooding
Pilot
Project
was
A waterflooding Pilot Project was initiated
initiated
Production decreased proportionally to inactive
wells. WOR increased rapidly to 90%
Pilot Project, 6300 BWPD, 6 Injectors

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Production HistorySecondary
Maturity
Production
Production increased
increased proportionally
proportionally to
to
new
new wells
wells entry
entry

Decline
Decline rate
rate constant
constant in
in 4%
4% annually.
annually.
Inyection
Inyection rate
rate 63.000
63.000 BWPD
BWPD

Injection rates reached 126 MBWPD, increasing

as water production increases. WOR 95%

Oil Production stabilized in 5400 B/D.

Production decreased proportionally to inactive
wells. WOR increased rapidly to 90%
Pilot Project, 6300 BWPD, 6 Injectors

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Reservoir Numerical Simulation

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Reservoir Simulation

Permeabilidad
Permeabilidad relativa
relativa
11

0,4
0,4
0,2
0,2
00
00

0,2
0,2

0,4
0,4

Sw
Sw

kro
kro

0,6
0,6

0,8
0,8

11

krw
krw

0,050
0,050
0,045
0,045
0,040
0,040
0,035
0,035
0,030
0,030
0,025
0,025
0,020
0,020
0,015
0,015
0,010
0,010
0,005
0,005
0,000
0,000
0,20
0,20

Presin
Presin Capilar
Capilar

SEAL
SEAL PICADA
PICADA
LMS
LMS 4a

10000
10000
1000
1000

0,40
0,40

0,60
0,60

0,80
0,80

sw
sw

1,00
1,00

Permeabilidad
Permeabilidad

0,6
0,6

P r e s i n C a p ila r ( B a r s a )

krw-kro
krw-kro

0,8
0,8

log
log k=
k=16,38*
16,38*phi
phi-- 2,7
2,7

100
100
10
10
11
00
0,00
0,00

0,10
0,10

0,20
0,20

0,30
0,30

0,40
0,40

Porosidad
Porosidad

Date: 2003
Reservoir Pressure = 54 Kg/cm- 768psi
Reservoir Bubble Point: 72 Kg/cm - 1024 psi
Cells: 96 x 85 x 16 = 130.560
65.490 active cells.
Swi: 32% from cores

LMS
LMS 4a
4a

Promedio
Promedio

0,50
0,50

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

History Matching and Prediction

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Reservoir Development Strategy

As seen so far, this field presents recovery optimization challenges:
The strategy contemplates:
Recalculate OOIP using an Stochastic Model.
Determining fluids distribution under current producing and injecting
conditions. Infill drilling Program
Implementing a Water Conformance Approach.

Construction of an expanded numerical simulator will be considered

further.

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

AREA

Hu

18

23

27

31

POROSITY
FVF

36

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

MODELO ESTRATIGRAFICO

InformacionLitolgica
Porosidad
Informacin
Informacion SP

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Determining fluids distribution under current producing and injecting conditions

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5
80

Analysis through segregated flux model software.

Analitic Simulation

Constant inyection of 150 m/d.

0
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4
0
3
8
3 0
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5
5
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3
2
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1
I1
5
I1
50

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Results

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

CONCLUSIONS
Although Seal Picada has a numerical simulator in a single block which matches
with production history and has been used to forecast future development, the
geological complexity and critical data availability suggested the use of a
stochastically model to accelerate field oil production.
Using a probabilistic model oil reserves were re-estimated in 472.5 MMBls (75.1
MMm3) which represents 12 % higher than initially calculated. A development plan
of 24 new wells was considered for the next two years.
Considering oil prices, lease time and reservoir characteristics, the selection of a
stochastically model can surpass the use of a numerical model in order to optimize a
mature field profitability.

A FIELD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY:

WHEN A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL SURPASSES NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Muchas Gracias

Thanks