Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Tom Kendrick
Technology required
Infrastructure required
Other significant data and issues
III. High- Level Risk Assessment Tools
Risk framework
Risk complexity index
Risk assessment grid
Risk Framework
Consider the following project factors & their
sub factors
Technology (the work)
2. Activity Definition
4. Activity Sequencing
1-Sources of Schedule Risk
Delay risks
Dependency risks
Estimating risks
Delay Risks
Late delivery
Slow documentation
Defective supply
Slow decisions
Poor access
Lack of interest
Extended debates
Delay Risks (contd.)
Lack of information
Geographic time lag
Miscommunication
Rework etc.
Dependancy Risks
Non-conformity
Interfacing
Dependancy Risks (contd.)
Dependency on support
Delay
Non-conformity
Documentation
Estimation Risks
Misleading historical data
Difference in approach
Level of skill
Improportional scale
Judgment error
Over-optimism
Quick planning
Estimation Pitfalls
Avoidance
Optimism
Lack of information
Granularity
Overall Estimation Process
Project-specific Factors
Clarity of the project specifications
Likelihood of significant specification change
New resource requirements
Longer expected project duration
New required technology
Unusual technical complexity
Project-specific Factors (Contd.)
Extreme requirements for reliability
Geographic separation and cultural diversity
on the project team
Infrastructure and environment differences
Training requirements
Resource Factors
The
amount of time each day each team
member has for project work
The number of people contributing to each
activity
Theskills, experience, and productivity of
each team member
Training and mentoring requirements
Non-project responsibilities for each person
Resource Factors (Contd)
Issues of distributed teams
Expected turnover during the project
The number and duration for meetings
Theamount of project communication and
reporting
Travel requirements
Thenumber of required people not yet
assigned
Nonproject Factors
Holidays
Weekends
Vacations and other paid time off
Other projects
Lengthy non-project meetings
Equipment downtime
Interruptions and shut-downs
Medical leave
Methods for Estimating
Activity Durations
Similarity to Other Activities
Historical Data
Rules and Formulas
Expert Advice
Delphi Technique
Three Point Technique
Wide-band Delphi Technique
Project- level Estimates
Thinkingall the initial work on a project,
such as planning, analysis, investigation, initial
design, proposal generation, specification, and
preparation for the business decision to
commit to the project.
Doingthe work that generally defines the
project. This is where the team rolls up their
sleeves and digs into the creation of the
project deliverable.
Checkingtesting the results created by the
project, searching for defects in the
deliverable(s), correcting problems and
omissions, and achieving project closure.
Applying Estimating Techniques
Estimates Adjusted for Uncertainty
O+4M+P
=E
6
O Optimistic time
P Pessimistic time
M Most likely time
Beta Distribution
Sources of Sequencing Risks