Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Probability
Concepts and
Applications
Probabilities of Demand
Quantity Freq. Probability
Demand (days) (Relative Freq)
0 40 (40/200) = 0.20
1 80 (80/200) = 0.40
2 50 (50/200) = 0.25
3 20 (20/200) = 0.10
4 10 (10/200) = 0.05
Total days = 200 Total Prob =1.00
Note: 0 P(event) 1
and P(event) = 1
To accompany 2-8 2006 by
Quantitative Prentice Hall,
Types of Probability
Objective probability is based on
logical observations:
Number of times event occurs
P ( event )
Total number of outcomes or occurrences
Determined by:
Relative frequency Obtained using
historical data (Diversey Paint)
Classical method Known
probability for each outcome (tossing
a coin)
Boy/Boy
Boy/Girl
Girl/Girl
Girl/Boy
What is the probability that both
babies will be girls? / boys?
To accompany 2-14 2006 by
Quantitative Prentice Hall,
In-Class Practice
Assuming a traditional 52-card deck, can
you identify if these outcomes are mutually
exclusive and/or collectively exhaustive ??
P(A
a nd
B)
P(A) P(B)
+ -
=
P(A or B)
P(A)
P(B)
P(B|A) P(A|B)
P(A
P(A) P(B)
and
B)
/
P(B) P(AB) P(A)
P(B|A) = P(AB)/P(A)
P(A
P(A) P(B)
and
B)
/
P(A) P(AB) P(B)
P(A|B) = P(AB)/P(B)
Then:
P(Y) = .4
- marginal probability
P(L|Y) = P(YL)/P(Y)
= 0.3/0.4 = 0.75
- conditional probability
P(W|L) = P(WL)/P(L)
= 0.4/0.7 = 0.57
- conditional probability
Let M represent
the event of the
stock market Then:
reaching the P(MT) =P(T|M)P(M)
10,500 point = (0.70)(0.40)
level, and T
= 0.28
represent the
event that
Tubeless goes
up.
Prior
Probabilities
Bayes Posterior
Process Probabilities
New
Information
P( AB)
P( A | B) or
P( B)
P ( B | A) P( A)
P( A | B)
P( B | A) P ( A) P ( B | A ) P ( A )
Discrete
Inspect 600 Number Y = number 0,1,2,,
items acceptable acceptable 600
Send out Number of Z = number of 0,1,2,,
5,000 sales people people responding 5,000
letters responding
Build an % completed R = % completed 0R100
apartment after 4 after 4 months
Continuous
building months
Test the Time bulb S = time bulb 0S80,000
lifetime of a lasts - up to burns
light bulb 80,000
(minutes) minutes
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
SA A N DA SD
X 1P( X 1 ) X 2 P( X 2 ) X 3 P( X 3 )
X 4 P( X 4 ) X 5 P( X 5 )
(5)(0.1) ( 4)(0.2) (3)(0.3)
( 2)(0.3) (1)(0.1)
2.9
Thus, the mean response to Dr. Shannons
question is between disagree (2) and neutral (3),
with the average being closer to neutral.
To accompany 2-50 2006 by
Quantitative Prentice Hall,
Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
The variance of a discrete probability
distribution is:
n 2
2 X i EX PX i
i 1
For Dr. Shannons class:
2 5 2.9 0.1 4 2.9 0.2
2 2
(1 2.9) 2 (0.1)
0.44 - 0.242 0.003 0.243 0.361
1.29
Thus, the standard deviation for Dr.
Shannons question is 1.29 = 1.136
2
For Dr. Shannons class:
1.29,
2
so,
1.358
To accompany 2-52 2006 by
Quantitative Prentice Hall,
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a
probability distribution with:
trials that follow a Bernoulli
process and have two possible
outcomes.
probabilities that stay the same
from one trial to the next.
trials that are statistically
independent.
a positive integer number of trials.
n! r nr
pq
r!(n - r)!
Where,
n = number of trials
r = number of successes
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure (1-p)
np
The variance is:
np ( is:
The standard deviation p)
0.20 P(r=1)
P(r)
0.10
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
(r) Number of Successes
1 0 0.9500 0.9000 0.8500 0.8000 0.7500 0.7000 0.6500 0.6000 0.5500 0.5000
1 0.0500 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 0.2500 0.3000 0.3500 0.4000 0.4500 0.5000
2 0 0.9025 0.8100 0.7225 0.6400 0.5625 0.4900 0.4225 0.3600 0.3025 0.2500
1 0.0950 0.1800 0.2550 0.3200 0.3750 0.4200 0.4550 0.4800 0.4950 0.5000
2 0.0025 0.0100 0.0225 0.0400 0.0625 0.0900 0.1225 0.1600 0.2025 0.2500
3 0 0.8574 0.7290 0.6141 0.5120 0.4219 0.3430 0.2746 0.2160 0.1664 0.1250
1 0.1354 0.2430 0.3251 0.3840 0.4219 0.4410 0.4436 0.4320 0.4084 0.3750
2 0.0071 0.0270 0.0574 0.0960 0.1406 0.1890 0.2389 0.2880 0.3341 0.3750
3 0.0001 0.0010 0.0034 0.0080 0.0156 0.0270 0.0429 0.0640 0.0911 0.1250
4 0 0.8145 0.6561 0.5220 0.4096 0.3164 0.2401 0.1785 0.1296 0.0915 0.0625
1 0.1715 0.2916 0.3685 0.4096 0.4219 0.4116 0.3845 0.3456 0.2995 0.2500
n= 5 friends
2 0.0135 0.0486 0.0975 0.1536 0.2109 0.2646 0.3105 0.3456 0.3675 0.3750
3 0.0005 0.0036 0.0115 0.0256 0.0469 0.0756 0.1115 0.1536 0.2005 0.2500
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0016 0.0039 0.0081 0.0150 0.0256 0.0410 0.0625
5 0 0.7738 0.5905 0.4437 0.3277 0.2373 0.1681 0.1160 0.0778 0.0503 0.0313
1 0.2036 0.3281 0.3915 0.4096 0.3955 0.3602 0.3124 0.2592 0.2059 0.1563
2 0.0214 0.0729 0.1382 0.2048 0.2637 0.3087 0.3364 0.3456 0.3369 0.3125
3 0.0011 0.0081 0.0244 0.0512 0.0879 0.1323 0.1811 0.2304 0.2757 0.3125
4 0.0000 0.0005 0.0022 0.0064 0.0146 0.0284 0.0488 0.0768 0.1128 0.1563
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0010 0.0024 0.0053 0.0102 0.0185 0.0313
6 0 0.7351 0.5314 0.3771 0.2621 0.1780 0.1176 0.0754 0.0467 0.0277 0.0156
1 0.2321 0.3543 0.3993 0.3932 0.3560 0.3025 0.2437 0.1866 0.1359 0.0938
2 0.0305 0.0984 0.1762 0.2458 0.2966 0.3241 0.3280 0.3110 0.2780 0.2344
3 0.0021 0.0146 0.0415 0.0819 0.1318 0.1852 0.2355 0.2765 0.3032 0.3125
To accompany
4 0.0001 0.0012 0.0055
2-58
0.0154 0.0330
2006 by
0.0595 0.0951 0.1382 0.1861 0.2344
5 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0015 0.0044 0.0102 0.0205 0.0369 0.0609 0.0938
Quantitative
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 Prentice Hall,
0.0007 0.0018 0.0041 0.0083 0.0156
Soda Selection Solution
continued
What is the expected value, variance, and
standard deviation of your experiment?
expected value (u) = np
= 5(.5) = 2.5
variance = np(1-p)
= 5(.5)(.5) = 1.25
1 / 2 ( X ) 2
1
f (X ) e 2
2
To accompany 2-61 2006 by
Quantitative Prentice Hall,
Normal Distribution for
Different Values of
Different values of the mean shift the curve, but
do not affect the shape of the distribution.
0
30 40 50 60 70
=1
=0.1
=0.3 =0.2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
=100
=15
x
Z
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
x
Z = (125 100) / 20
= 1.25
x
Z = (75 100) / 20
= -1.25
Z (.5) = .69146
Z (1.25) = .89435
5 f ( X ) e x
4 =5 Expected value = 1/
3 Variance = 1/2
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
0.10
0.05
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9