13 vues

Transféré par Kartik Mehta

haha

- final review.docx
- Ppt of Bootstrap by Spida_2010
- Rijal2018_quantile Fire Burnt Area
- A Complete Tutorial on Tree Based Modeling From Scratch (in R & Python)
- eee482_homework3 (1)
- amfg2005-shan
- 2014_Predicting the Price of Used Cars using Machine Learning Techniques.pdf
- Random Forests
- c5b45ddb3ff1f62 Ek
- AWP-04-2014
- VIt Guide for BootsTrapping
- Bootstrapping EXPOS Methods
- Joseph F.Hair - PLS SEM Indeed a Silver Bullet.pdf
- sj10-2
- n21.pdf
- Bauer Etal 2008StataJ Blinder Oaxaca Decomp Nlinear Reg Models
- Risk Factors for Diarrhea in Children Under Five Years of Age Residing in Peri-urban
- Forecasting Accuracy of Commodity Futures Against Random Walk
- A Learning-based System for Predicting Sport Injur
- The trustworthy brand: effects of conclusion explicitness and persuasion awareness on consumer judgments

Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 51

Introduction

The accuracy of a predictive model can be boosted in two

ways: Either by embracingfeature engineeringor by

applying boosting algorithms. people prefer to work with

boosting algorithms as it takes less time and produces

similar results.

Boosting, XGBoost, AdaBoost, Gentle Boost etc. Every

algorithm has its own underlying mathematics and a slight

variation is observed while applying them.

What is boosting?

The term Boosting refers to a family of algorithms whichconverts

weak learner to strong learners.

How would you classifyan email as SPAM or not? Like everyone

else, our initial approach would beto identify spam and not spam

emails using following criteria. If:

Email has only oneimage file (promotional image), Its a SPAM

Email has only link(s), Its a SPAM

Email body consist ofsentence like You won a prize money of $

xxxxxx, Its a SPAM

Email from an official domain, Not a SPAM

Email from known source, Not a SPAM

Individually, these rules arenot powerful enough to

classify an email into spam or not spam.Therefore,

these rules are called asweak learner.

the prediction of each weak learner using methods like:

Using average/ weighted average

Considering prediction has higher vote

Types of Boosting Algorithms

AdaBoost (AdaptiveBoosting)

XGBoost

AdaBoost

equal weights to each data point and applied a decision

stump to classify them as + (plus) or (minus). The

decision stump (D1) has generated vertical line at left

side to classify the data points. We see that, this vertical

line has incorrectlypredicted three + (plus) as (minus).

In such case, wellassign higher weights to these three +

(plus) and apply another decision stump.

three (minus) are given higher weights. Adecision

stump (D3) is applied to predict these mis-classified

observation correctly. This time a horizontal line is

generated to classify + (plus) and (minus) based on

higher weight of mis-classified observation.

three (minus) are given higher weights. Adecision

stump (D3) is applied to predict these mis-classified

observation correctly. This time a horizontal line is

generated to classify + (plus) and (minus) based on

higher weight of mis-classified observation.

Combined D1, D2 and D3 to form a strong prediction

having complex rule as compared to individual weak

learner. You can see that this algorithmhas classified

these observation quite well as compared to any of

individual weak learner.

It works on similar method as discussed above.

Fits a sequence of weak learners on different

weightedtrainingdata.

Starts by predicting original data set and gives equal weight to

each observation.

If prediction is incorrect using the first learner, then it gives

higher weight to observation whichhave been predicted

incorrectly.

Is an iterative process, it continues to add learner(s) until a limit

is reached in the number of models or accuracy.

Mostly, we use decision stamps with AdaBoost.

Can use any machine learning algorithms as base learner if

itaccepts weight on training data set.

AdaBoost algorithms for both classification and regression

problem.

Learning An AdaBoost Model

From Data

AdaBoost was originally called AdaBoost.M1 by the authors of the technique

Freund and Schapire. More recently it may be referred to as discrete

AdaBoost because it is used for classification rather than regression.

The most suited and therefore most common algorithm used with AdaBoost

are decision trees with one level. Because these trees are so short and only

contain one decision for classification, they are often called decision

stumps.

Each instance in the training dataset is weighted. The initial weight is set

to:

weight(xi) = 1/n

Where xi is the ithtraining instance and n is the number of training

instances.

How To Train One Model

A weak classifier (decision stump) is preparedon the

training data using the weighted samples. Only binary

(two-class) classification problems are supported, so

each decision stump makes one decision on one input

variable and outputs a +1.0 or -1.0 value for the first or

second class value.

model. Traditionally, this is calculated as:

error = (correct N) / N

Where error is the misclassification rate, correct are the

number of training instance predicted correctly by the

model and N is the total number of training instances.

For example, if the model predicted 78 of 100 training

instances correctly the error or misclassification rate

would be (78-100)/100 or 0.22.

instances:

error = sum(w(i) * terror(i)) / sum(w)

Which is the weighted sum of the misclassification rate,

where w is the weight for training instance i and terror is

the prediction error for training instance i which is 1 if

misclassified and 0 if correctly classified.

For example, if we had 3 training instances with the

weights 0.01, 0.5 and 0.2. The predicted values were -1,

-1 and -1, and the actual output variables in the instances

were -1, 1 and -1, then the terrors would be 0, 1, and 0.

The misclassification rate would be calculated as:

error = (0.01*0 + 0.5*1 + 0.2*0) / (0.01 + 0.5 + 0.2)

or

error = 0.704

A stage value is calculated for the trained model which

provides a weighting for any predictions that the model

makes. The stage value for a trained model is calculated

as follows:

stage = ln((1-error) / error)

predictions from the model, ln() is the natural logarithm

and error is the misclassification error for the model. The

effect of the stage weight is that more accurate models

The training weights are updated giving more weight to incorrectly predicted

instances, and less weight to correctly predicted instances. For example, the

weight of one training instance (w) is updated using:

w = w * exp(stage * terror)

Where w is the weight for a specific training instance, exp() is the numerical

constant e or Eulers number raised to a power, stage is the misclassification

rate for the weak classifier and terror is the error the weak classifier made

predicting the output variable for the training instance, evaluated as:

terror = 0 if(y == p), otherwise 1

Where y is the output variable for the training instance and p is the prediction

from the weak learner.

This has the effect of not changing the weight if the training instance was

classified correctly and making the weight slightly larger if the weak learner

misclassified the instance.

AdaBoost Ensemble

Weak models are added sequentially, trained using the

weighted training data.

The process continues until a pre-set number of weak

learners have been created (a user parameter) or no

further improvement can be made on the training

dataset.

Once completed, you are left with a pool of weak

learners each with a stage value.

Making Predictions with

AdaBoost

Predictionsare made by calculating the weighted

average of the weak classifiers.

a predicted value as either +1.0 or -1.0. The predicted

values are weighted by each weak learners stage value.

The prediction for the ensemble model is taken as a the

sum of the weighted predictions. If the sum is positive,

then the first class is predicted, if negative the second

class is predicted.

For example, 5 weak classifiers may predict the values

1.0, 1.0, -1.0, 1.0, -1.0. From a majority vote, it looks like

the model will predict a value of 1.0 or the first class.

These same 5 weak classifiers may have the stage values

0.2, 0.5, 0.8, 0.2 and 0.9 respectively. Calculating the

weighted sum of these predictions results in an output of

-0.8, which would be an ensemble prediction of -1.0 or

the second class.

Bagging and Random Forest

Ensemble Algorithms for

Machine Learning

Bootstrap Method

The bootstrap is a powerful statistical method for estimating

a quantity from a data sample. This is easiest to understand

if the quantity is a descriptive statistic such as a mean or a

standard deviation.

like to get an estimate of the mean of the sample.

mean(x) = 1/100 * sum(x)

We know that our sample is small and that our mean has error in it.

We can improve the estimate of our mean using the bootstrap

procedure:

Create many (e.g. 1000) random sub-samples of our dataset with

replacement (meaning we can select the same value multiple

times).

Calculate the mean of each sub-sample.

Calculate the average of all of our collected means and use that as

our estimated mean for the data.

For example, lets say we used 3 resamples and got the mean

values 2.3, 4.5 and 3.3. Taking the average of these we could take

the estimated mean of the data to be 3.367.

This process can be used to estimate other quantities like the

standard deviation and even quantities used in machine learning

algorithms, like learned coefficients.

Motivation

Whats the average price of house prices?

average u.

of u? whats the confidence interval?

Solutions

One possibility: get several samples from F.

multiple samples.

Solution: bootstrap

The general bootstrap algorithm

Let the original sample be L=(x1,x2,,xn)

Repeat B time:

Generate a sample Lk of size n from L by sampling with

replacement.

*

Compute for x*.

* bootstrap

* values

* (1 ,..., B )

Use these values for calculating all the quantities of interest (e.g.,

standard deviation, confidence intervals)

An example

X1=(1.57,0.22,19.67,

0,0,2.2,3.12)

Mean=4.13

X=(3.12, 0, 1.57,

19.67, 0.22, 2.20)

X2=(0, 2.20, 2.20,

2.20, 19.67, 1.57)

Mean=4.46

Mean=4.64

X3=(0.22, 3.12,1.57,

3.12, 2.20, 0.22)

Mean=1.74

A quick view of bootstrapping

Introduced by Bradley Efron in 1979

is widely believed to come from the Adventures of Baron

Munchausen.

practice.

constructing confidence intervals for parameters.

Bootstrap distribution

The bootstrap does not replace or add to the original

data.

variation in a statistic based on the original data.

Sampling distribution vs.

bootstrap distribution

The population: certain unknown quantities of interest

(e.g., mean)

Bootstrapping:

One original sample B bootstrap samples

B bootstrap samples bootstrap distribution

Bootstrap distributions usually approximate the shape,

spread, and bias of the actual sampling distribution.

statistic from the original sample plus any bias.

parameter in the population, plus any bias.

Cases where bootstrap

does not apply

Small data sets: the original sample is not a good

approximation of the population

problems): Bootstrap is based on the assumption of

independence.

How many bootstrap samples

are needed?

Choice of B depends on

Computer availability

intervals,

Resampling methods

Boostrap

Permutation tests

Jackknife: we ignore one observation at each time

Cross fold valisation

Leave on out.

Jacknife

The Jackknife was proposed by M.H. Quenouille in 1949 and

later refined and given its current name by John Tukey in

1956.

for correcting bias. Later, Tukey described its use in

constructing confidence limits for a large class of estimators.

instead of sampling with replacement, the method samples

without replacement.

Many situations arise where it is impractical or even

impossible to calculate good estimators or find those

estimators standard errors.

basis to fall back on, or

function of a statistic, say g(X) for some function with

no closed-form integral.

derive an estimate of bias and standard error.

Bootstrap Aggregation

(Bagging)

Bootstrap Aggregation (or Bagging for short), is a simple and very powerful

ensemble method.

variance for those algorithm that have high variance. An algorithm that has

high variance are decision trees, like classification and regression trees (CART).

Decision trees are sensitive to the specific data on which they are trained. If

the training data is changed (e.g. a tree is trained on a subset of the training

data) the resulting decision tree can be quite different and in turn the

predictions can be quite different.

machine learning algorithm, typically decision trees.

Lets assume we have a sample dataset of 1000

instances (x) and we are using the CART algorithm.

Bagging of the CART algorithm would work as follows.

Create many (e.g. 100) random sub-samples of our

dataset with replacement.

Train a CART model on each sample.

Given a new dataset, calculate the average prediction

fromeach model.

For example, if we had 5 bagged decision trees that

made the following class predictions for a in input

sample: blue, blue, red, blue and red, we would take the

most frequent class and predict blue.

When bagging with decision trees, we are less

concerned about individual trees overfitting the training

data.

trees are grown deep (e.g. few training samples at each

leaf-node of the tree) and the trees are not pruned.

bias. These are important characterize of sub-models

when combining predictions using bagging.

The only parameters when bagging decision trees is the

number of samples and hence the number of trees to

include.

on run after run until the accuracy begins to stop

showing improvement. Very large numbers of models

may take a long time to prepare, but will not overfit the

training data.

used for classification and regression problems.

Random Forest

Random Forest is one of the most popular and most

powerful machine learning algorithms. It is a type of

ensemble machine learning algorithm called Bootstrap

Aggregation or bagging.

Random Forest

Random Forests are an improvementover bagged decision

trees.

A problem with decision trees like CART is that they are

greedy. They choose which variable to split on using a greedy

algorithm that minimizes error. As such, even with Bagging,

the decision trees can have a lot of structural similarities and

in turn have high correlation in their predictions.

Combining predictions from multiple models in ensembles

works better if the predictions from the sub-models are

uncorrelated or at best weakly correlated.

Random forest changes the algorithm for the way that

the sub-trees are learned so that the resulting

predictions from all of the subtrees have less

correlation.

point, the learning algorithm is allowed to look through

all variables and all variable values in order to select the

most optimal split-point.

that the learning algorithm is limited to a random

sample of features of which to search.

The number of features that can be searched at each split

point (m) must be specified as a parameter to the

algorithm. You can try different values and tune it using

cross validation.

For regression a good default is:m = p/3

Where m is the number of randomly selected features that

can be searched at a split point and p is the number of

input variables. For example, if a dataset had 25 input

variables for a classification problem, then:

m = sqrt(25)

m=5

Estimated Performance

For each bootstrap sample taken from the training data,

there will be samples left behind that were not included.

These samples are called Out-Of-Bag samples or OOB.

The performance of each model on its left out samples

when averaged can provide an estimated accuracy of

the bagged models. This estimated performance is often

called the OOB estimate of performance.

These performance measures are reliable test error

estimate and correlate well with cross validation

estimates.

Variable Importance

As the Bagged decision trees are constructed, we can calculate how

much the error function drops for a variable at each split point.

In regression problems this may be the drop in sum squared error and in

classification this might be the Gini score.

These drops in error can be averaged across all decision trees and output

to provide an estimate of the importance of each input variable.

The greater the drop when the variable was chosen, the greater the

importance.

These outputs can help identify subsets of input

variables that may be most or least relevant to the

problem and suggest at possible feature selection

experiments you could perform where some features

are removed from the dataset.

- final review.docxTransféré parAniKelbakiani
- Ppt of Bootstrap by Spida_2010Transféré parpran4cae
- Rijal2018_quantile Fire Burnt AreaTransféré parHim Lal Shrestha
- A Complete Tutorial on Tree Based Modeling From Scratch (in R & Python)Transféré parmeegoos
- eee482_homework3 (1)Transféré parSerkan Kalpak
- amfg2005-shanTransféré parmayur2510.20088662
- 2014_Predicting the Price of Used Cars using Machine Learning Techniques.pdfTransféré parSameerchand Pudaruth
- Random ForestsTransféré parScary Creatures
- c5b45ddb3ff1f62 EkTransféré parjstpallav
- AWP-04-2014Transféré parlloewens
- VIt Guide for BootsTrappingTransféré parMinghan Yong
- Bootstrapping EXPOS MethodsTransféré parlinahuertas
- Joseph F.Hair - PLS SEM Indeed a Silver Bullet.pdfTransféré parTimmy
- sj10-2Transféré parRajesh Kumar
- n21.pdfTransféré parChristine Straub
- Bauer Etal 2008StataJ Blinder Oaxaca Decomp Nlinear Reg ModelsTransféré parzeta_oi
- Risk Factors for Diarrhea in Children Under Five Years of Age Residing in Peri-urbanTransféré parAldy Setiawan Putra
- Forecasting Accuracy of Commodity Futures Against Random WalkTransféré paradkrog
- A Learning-based System for Predicting Sport InjurTransféré parManuel Bermúdez Herrero
- The trustworthy brand: effects of conclusion explicitness and persuasion awareness on consumer judgmentsTransféré parisvezich
- Different Types of Judgement(UCTI SLIDE)Transféré parNahid Miri
- Mandell Et Al Dynamics Brain Csf Fluid Growth j Neurosurgery 2010Transféré parrys239
- LTDFTransféré parEl inocente
- shahTransféré pargupta
- Food Quality and Preference 14 (2003) 463–472Transféré parNP
- Lec_20Transféré parcmollinedoa
- Ruscio and KaczetowTransféré parWalter Kaczetow
- Diffscores MacroTransféré parクマー ヴィーン
- ipredTransféré parAshwini Kumar Pal
- Big Data Machine Learning Course TrainingTransféré parAureliuscs

- Management Project Proposal - Kartik Mehta - 15A2HP441Transféré parKartik Mehta
- MRBTransféré parKartik Mehta
- Factors Influencing a Chocie of InvestmentTransféré parKartik Mehta
- Factors Influencing a Chocie of InvestmentTransféré parKartik Mehta
- Factors Influencing a Chocie of InvestmentTransféré parKartik Mehta
- Project CodeTransféré parKartik Mehta
- CAIW AssignmentTransféré parKartik Mehta
- 3Transféré parErica Crane
- BRMTransféré parKartik Mehta
- TBBTTransféré parKartik Mehta
- Solver Problem 13 Sep 2015Transféré parKartik Mehta
- ch12Transféré parKartik Mehta
- Regression AssuptionsTransféré parKartik Mehta
- Variance FtestTransféré parKartik Mehta

- Course MaterialTransféré pardejan_kanazir
- T6963CTransféré parapi-19831863
- Matlab Dc MotorTransféré pargravitypl
- Globotek Holdings Inc 131-page prospectus dated Jan. 2011Transféré parHarry the Greek
- Direct RegistrationTransféré parManan Atit
- Chapter 7 Lab ExerciseTransféré parcyclonextreme
- 16-Helicopter Performance 2008Transféré parStiven Castellanos
- Business ProposalTransféré parJolina Joy Battad Bayaca
- Vilamor.bible.norkis.dallion.crb.RadiowealthTransféré parKcompacion
- A Further Comprehensive Approach to Assessing the Groundwater Potential of the Basement Complex Terrain of Ekiti State Southwestern NigeriaTransféré parIJSTR Research Publication
- International Trojan HelpsheetTransféré parAdvait Tendulkar
- 6201-V-01Transféré parKamrul Islam
- APSE Guide v1.0Transféré parwilmat9
- ch14Transféré parLong Tran
- DOD-STD-2167Transféré parHercules Wu
- Ans Assignment2aTransféré parMurugan Ramachandran Pillai R
- Sundararajan's CVTransféré parSundar Jagannathan
- Hacktivity2010_WritingOwnPasswordCrackerTransféré partrlalan
- Parkinsons DiseaseTransféré parYusufAliBahr
- Gauff Consultants Sept 2012Transféré parDe Mee
- Merck ESMO Teleconference SlidesTransféré parmedtechy
- Rhino3D TutorialTransféré parBen Wilson
- Catantan - Tulin CaseTransféré parCesyl Patricia Ballesteros
- VHLP1-18-3GRTransféré parmdisic
- Ind Radiography GuideTransféré parツ ツ
- Unit1_Algo_Analysis.pdfTransféré parSwapnil Shinde
- HenssgeTransféré parJustyna
- Bdp 2900Transféré parAndreskoira
- africastrategy-110826083232-phpapp01Transféré parVinay Malik
- YEC BrochureTransféré parRobCollins