Short-Term Load

Forecasting Using System-

Type Neural Network
Shu Du, Graduate Student
Architecture
Mentor: Kwang Y. Lee, Professor and Chair
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Baylor University
Outline
Introduction and Background
Objectives
Load Forecasting Categories
Load Forecasting Methods
Proposed Approach
Regression and Rearrangement
System-Type Neural Network Method
Learning Algorithm of System-Type Neural Network
Extrapolation and Interpolation
Simulation Results
Rearrangement
Output of Semigroup Channel
Extrapolation
Conclusions
Introduction and Background
Objective
Electric power generation, transmission,
distribution, security
Increase or decrease output of generators
Interchange power with neighboring systems

Prevent overloading and reduce occurrences

of equipment failures
Electric power market
Price settings
Schedule spinning reserve allocation

properly
Introduction and Background
Load Forecasting Categories
Short-term load forecasting
One hour ~ One week
Control and schedule power system in

everyday operations
Medium-term and Long-term load
forecasting
One week ~ longer than one year
Determine capacity of generation,

transmission, distribution systems, type of

facilities required in transmission expansion
planning, development of power system
infrastructure, etc.
Introduction and Background
Load Forecasting Methods
Parametric methods
Regression method
Time series

Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)

Spectral expansion technique (Fourier Series)
State equations
Artificial intelligence methods
Artificial neural networks
Feedforward network
Recurrent network
Fuzzy logic
Expert systems
Proposed Approach
Regression and Rearrangement
Regression
Objective
Represent given load with respect to two major
variablestime and temperature
Load
L LForm
total L
base weather Lother factors Load f ( Day, Hour ,Weather , Customer classes, )

Ltotal Lbase Lweather Load f (Temperatur e, Hour )

Lbase -----Base load component (time

factor)
Lweather -----Weather sensitive load component
(weather factor)
Lother factors -----Load component (other factors)
 Proposed Approach
Regression and Rearrangement
Rearrangement
Objective
Minimize the fluctuation caused by hourly
temperature
Obtain the smoothness of the given load data

Day Temperatur
e
Implementation

Rearrange Align given load based
ment upon magnitudes of
hourly temperatures

Ho Ho
1 2 24 ur 1 2 24 ur

Load before Load after

Rearrangement Rearrangement
Proposed Approach
System-Type Neural Network Method
Algebraic Decomposition
Objective
Form an approximation load
~ data to
L (T , H ) L(T , H )
Implementation
Reorganize given load into a parameterized set

L(T , H ),
Select T R H and
elements
1
LT ( H ) them
H
R orthonormalize , T [Tto
1 , Ta
f ] basis set

by Gram-Schmidt process

LT T ( H ), LT T the
Determine
1 2
linear
( H ), , LT T ( H
n
)
combination H ) basis
E (of [e1 ( H ),set
e2 ( Hfor
),each
, en ( H )]
element
LT Ti ( H ) c1 (T )e1 ( H ) c2 (T )e2 ( H ) cn (T )en ( H )
Combine the coefficient vector and the basis set to
achieve
~ an
~ approximation
L (T , H ) C (T ) E ( H )
T
Proposed Approach
System-Type Neural Network Method
Function Channel Semigroup Channel
Structure
N RBF StructureSimple

networks Recurrent Network

Each network Smoothen the coefficient
N
implements one of vector and
orthonormal basis Realize semigroup
~
H
functions Function
FunctionChannel
Channel T , H )
property (T ) E ( H )
L ( C T

(NN1) (NN1)
~ ~
C (T ) C (T ) (T )C (0), (T1 T2 ) (T1 ) (T2 )

T
Semigroup
SemigroupChannel
Channel
(NN2)
C (0) (NN2)
Proposed Approach
Learning Algorithm of System-Type Neural
Network
Function Channel
RBF
N network can be Ndesigned rather than trained
RBF networks emulate selected basis functions
Semigroup Channel ~
C (T ) C (T )
Primary Objective Replicate and smoothen the vector with a
vector which has the semigroup property
Secondary Objective Acquire a semigroup property in the weight
space which is the basis for extrapolation
The entire trajectory is sliced into a nested sequence of trajectories

W4 N
W3
W2
W1

d a ta p o in t
 Proposed Approach
Extrapolation and Interpolation
Extrapolation
Extrapolation is needed only when temperature forecast at a
given hour exceeds the historical bounds at the same time
Interpolation
Interpolation is needed when temperature forecast at a given
hour falls into the historical temperature range at the same
time
~ ~
Tempera C (T ) Tempera C (T )
ture Extrapol ture
ated Interpola
Coefficie ted
4 Decompo nt 4 Decompo Coefficie
se & se & nt
3 3
Smoothen Smoothen
2 2
1 1
Ho T Ho T
1 2 2 ur 4 5 1 2 2 ur 3 4
4 4
Load after Extrapolation of Load after Interpolation of
Rearrangement Coefficient Rearrangement Coefficient
Simulation Results
Forecasting Procedure
Data Source
New England Independent System Operator
Historical Data
Load load for the year 2002
Temperature weighted average hourly temperature

of 8 stations in
the New England area
Pattern
Weekday pattern (Mon ~ Fri) and Weekend pattern
(Sat, Sun)
Next Day Forecasting
Previous loads and temperatures in the length of four
weeks
 Simulation Results
Simulation of Forecasting A Weekday Load
Rearrangement

Regression Load before Rearrangement Regression Load after Rearrangement

4 4
x 10 x 10

2.5 2.5

2 2

1.5
Rearrange 1.5
MW

MW
1 1

0.5 0.5
20
15 25 25
20 20
10 15 15
5 10 10
5 5
Day 0 0 T 0
Hour Hour
Simulation Results
Simulation of Forecasting A Weekday Load
Output of Semigroup Channel

Comparison of Original and Smoothened Coefficient Vector 1 Comparison of Original and Smoothened Coefficient Vector 2
1 1
Smoothened
0.8 Original 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0 0
C1

C2
-0.2 -0.2

-0.4 -0.4

-0.6 -0.6

-0.8 -0.8 Smoothened

Original
-1 -1
T T

~ ~
C1 (T ) C 2 (T )
Simulation Results
Simulation of Forecasting A Weekday Load
Extrapolation

Extrapolation of C1 Extrapolation of C2
1 1
Output
0.8 0.8 Smoothened C2

0.6 Observation 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2
Extrapolation
0 0
C1

C2
Observation

-0.2 -0.2

-0.4 -0.4 Extrapolation

-0.6 -0.6

Output
-0.8 -0.8
Smoothened C1
-1 -1
T T
Simulation Results
Regression Load Forecasting Results
Conclusions
Next Day Load Forecasting based
upon Weather Forecast
A mathematical approach referred to as algebraic
decomposition is investigated
The system-type neural network architecture
combining Radial Basis Function Networks and a Simple
Recurrent Network is proposed
A new training algorithm in the SRN is proposed
Regression and Rearrangement are performed to
guarantee smoothness of coefficient vector
Interpolation and Extrapolation are implemented based
on temperatures
Much better results with respect to actual load and
removal of regression are expected if load and
temperature are highly correlated to each other
THANK YOU