WATER DEMAND

Water demand is based on population served, per

capita consumption, service factor, industrial and
other special demands. In estimating water demand,
various other factors should be taken to account
directly or indirectly.

These other factors include unaccounted-for-water,

unsatisfied demand, increase in per capita
consumption over time due to improvement in living
standards, increase in service factor over time and
maximum day demand.
PLANNING HORIZON AND STAGED
DEVELOPMENT:
The study of water demand for any urban water
supply scheme should cover a period of at least 20
years with projections made at 5 year intervals.

Planning on a horizon shorter than 20 years will not

allow the planner to take full advantage of the
potential of the water source selected or to make
provisions for full and economical development of
infrastructure, treatment facilities and distribution
systems.
On the other hand, planning on a horizon longer
than 20 years may introduce a great deal of
inaccuracy due to the lack of information of long
term development of the area served.

In the Malaysian context and with the circumstances

applicable to most urban centres in the country, a
planning horizon of 20 years is the optimum
and should be used unless circumstances justify a
shorter or longer planning horizon.
Although the planning horizon of any scheme is 20 years, for
economic reasons implementation of construction of facilities
may be staged or phased in two or more stages especially for
the bigger schemes. In the staging of construction, the stage 1
facilities should be adequate to meet the water demand for a
minimum period of another ten years.

Not with standing this recommendation on staging of water

supply development, a scheme may be implemented in one
stage if considered desirable or deemed necessary or the
water source has the potential only to cater for a period slightly
longer than 10 years based on the water demand projection.
BASIC FORMULA FOR WATER DEMAND
ESTIMATION:
POPULATION PROJECTION:
The population projection should be carried out at 5
year intervals to cover a 20 year period, in making
assumptions on growth rates, reference should be
made to historical data based on previous census
and the Demographic Section of the Economic
Planning Unit of the Prime Minister's Department
(EPU) should also be consulted.

If an assumed population growth rate is not expected

to be sustained throughout the 20 year planning
period, different growth rates may be assumed for
different parts of the period.
It should be noted that' it would not be practical to
expect changes in growth rates in 5 years.

In the case of historical data indicating negative growth

rates for any particular part of the study area, the
increase in water demand there would be due solely to
increases in the service factor and per capita
consumption.
Projections of population should be made on a
mukim by mukim basis and hence water demand
estimation should be made on such basis.

In projecting population growth a high and low

growth rate should be assumed.

Based on this assumption, two water demand

curves will be generated.

The median of these two water demand curves

should be used for water demand estimation.
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION:

Per capita consumption should be classified

under three categories. The guideline below gives
a range of per capita consumption for each of the
three categories:-

urban - 230 to 320 litres/head/day,

semi-urban - 180 to 230 litres/head/day,
rural- 135 to 180 litres/head/day.
By urban is meant communities with population
exceeding 10,000 in number. Semi-urban means areas at
the periphery of urban boundrieswhere living standards
and water usage is between urban and rural standards.

In selecting a figure to be used in the estimation of water

demand for an urban area for year zero, the planner
should take into consideration the present size of the
urban centre, the existing per capita consumption, the
degree of unsatisfied demand and the per capita
consumption of other similar sized urban centres without
suffering. from a high degree of unsatisfied demand.
Per capita consumption should be increased at 5 year
intervals until year 20. The target to be set for year 20 will
depend on the projected size of the urban centre.

In selecting the target per capita consumption for the year

20 consideration should be given to the same factors
affecting the selection of the appropriate per capita
consumption for year zero.

The guideline given under this paragraph on per capita

consumption is deemed to include normal commercial
and industrial use, domestic use and unaccounted-for-
water losses. If there is provision in the development
plans for specific industrial areas, additional water
demand for such use should be added to the estimation.
SERVICE FACTOR:

The service factor reflects the potential percentage

of population served.

A service factor of 0.9 means that the distribution

system covers adequately 90% of the area and the
population located in that area can get easy access
to public water supply.

A 0.9 service factor does not necessarily mean that

90% of the population have service connections.
In estimating the water demand the existing service
factor for urban and rural areas should be assumed
for year zero and the service factor should be
increased at 5 year intervals until it reaches the
target service factor in year 20.

The planner should use his judgement in selecting

the target service factor for year 20 taking into
consideration Government policy and the expected
water supply development budgets in future
development plans of the State Government.
Table 5.1 gives an indication of average service
factors State by State for the whole country but
for planning of a particular water supply scheme
serving for example a district, service factors
selected for urban and rural areas vary from
mukim to mukim.

The planner should use his judgement in

selecting targets for service factors for estimation
of water demand.
MAXIMUM DAY DEMAND:

The daily demand varies slightly due to the weather

and festive seasons.

In most states, daily water demand increases slightly in

the months of January and February.

During festive seasons, experience has shown that in

some urban centres, there is a change in demand due
to shutting down of factories while there is an increase
in demand in rural areas and smaller urban centres due
to people leaving the big urban centres for their home
towns or villages.
The maximum day demand is usually expressed as a
percentage of the average annual daily supply.

The maximum day demand is deemed to be catered

for by the provision on design operating hours of a
treatment plant for an operating period of 16 to 22
hours a day.
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