UNIVERSITY OF GONDAR

Institute of Technology
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Computer Aided Power System Analysis(CAPA)
Chapter 2 Load/Power Flow Analysis

By Dawit Adane
The power sector in the US
Accounts for 42% of primary energy consumption
Accounts for 35% of U.S. fossil fuel consumption
Uses almost no petroleum
Accounts for 40% of U.S. CO2 emissions
Annual revenues (from consumers) > b$250
Total asset value > b$800
Generation 60%, Distribution 30%, Transmission 10%
Ownership (3100 entities)
213 Investor Owned Utilities: 74% consumers
2000 Public Owned Utilities: 15% consumers
930 cooperatives: 11% consumers
US Electricity Market in 2007
Customer Retail (cents/kWh) No. of customers
Residential 10.65 123,949,916
Commercial 9.65 17,377,219
Industrial 6.39 793,767
Transportation 9.7 750
Total 9.13 142,121,652

Average Residential Monthly Use: 936 kWh

Average Residential Monthly Bill: $99.70
Time scales in power systems management
How can it be possible to meet the demand at any time efficiently and reliably, for an
infinite time horizon and under uncertainty?
The answer: Use a temporal hierarchy of decisions
Decision functions hierarchically chained
Each function optimizes its own decisions subject to
Its own constraints
Constraints that are imposed from upstream
Time Scale -1
The temporal hierarchy of decisions
Time scale 2
Power System Organizational Structure - Regulatory paradigms
Two regulatory paradigms
Centralized Traditional, regulated, monopolies
Decentralized De-regulated, market-oriented
Traditional regulation Generation

Monopolies with geographic franchises

Transmission
Vertically integrated businesses
Centralized operation and expansion Distribution
Cost minimization
Cost of service-based remuneration Customer Service
Fixed investment costs (plant, line construction...) /MW
Variable operating costs (fuel consumption, maintenance, ...) /MWh
Tariff-based prices for users; utilities subject to mandatory supply obligations
Minimum (cheap) risk assumed by consumers
Liberalized regulation
De-regulate activities
Freedom to invest and operate
Attract private, international investment
Allow new and more efficient initiatives
Decentralization
Introduce competition to
Lower costs
Encourage demand-side participation
Unbundle business activities
Competitive: generation and retailing
Natural monopolies: transmission and distribution
Market mechanisms govern generation investment and operating decisions
supply-demand balance sets prices & amounts
Wholesale Market
 remuneration based on the competitive sale of the electricity product /MWh
Short-term sales (pool balancing markets)
Long-term sales (OTC contracts)
higher (expensive) risk, assumed by investors
maximized individual profit and market balance
Market mechanisms govern power retailing decisions
Distinction between the wire business (likened to roads) and the business of
selling power (likened to tomatoes), distributed across wires
Notion of customer
Absence of tariffs
Retailing valued for the added value offered to customers
Expansion planning Operation planning (medium term)
in centralized environment in centralized environment
Operation planning (short term) Real time operation
in centralized environment in centralized environment
Load Forecasting
What is load forecasting?
Forecasting is a tool used for predicting future demand based on past
demand information.
Demand for products and services is usually uncertain.
Why is forecasting important?
Forecasting can be used for
Strategic planning (long range planning)
Finance and accounting (budgets and cost controls)
Marketing (future sales, new products)
Production and operations
General characteristics of forecasts
Forecasts are always wrong/uncertain
Forecasts are more accurate for shorter time periods
Every forecast should include an error estimate
Forecasts are no substitute for calculated demand
1.A forecast is only as good as the information included in the forecast (past data)
2. History is not a perfect predictor of the future (i.e.: there is no such thing as a perfect forecast)
How should we pick our forecasting model?
1.Data availability
2.Time horizon for the forecast
3.Required accuracy
4.Required Resources

Benefits of Load Forecasting

Capacity Planning
Selling of Excess Power
Optimum Supply Schedule - automatic generation control, safe and reliable operation, and resource dispatch
Network Planning
Demand Side Management
Fuel Mix Selection
Renewable Planning
Load Driving Parameters
parameters affecting the forecasted load of future.
Time factors such as
Hours of the day (day or night)
Day of the week (week day or weekend)
Time of the year (season)
Weather conditions (temperature and humidity)
Class of customers (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, public, etc.)
Special events (TV programs, public holidays, etc.)
Population
Economic indicators (per capita income, Gross National Product (GNP), Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), etc.)
Trends in using new technologies
Electricity price
Classification of Load Forecasting

1.Short Term Load Forecasting(STLF)

2.Mid Term Load Forecasting(MTLF)
3.Long Term Load Forecasting(LTLF)
The STLF methods are used for hour-by-hour predictions(for 1 day to 1 week).
MTLF normally results in daily forecast (for several weeks to several months).
LTLF focuses on monthly or seasonal forecasts (the peak of the month or the season) for
several years from now.
Some load driving parameters may be ineffective or ignored5 for each of the above categories.
For instance, GDP may have strong effects on LTLF; while ineffective in STLF. On the other
hand, TV programs are effective in STLF but ineffective in LTLF.
Moving towards longer time frames, the accuracies of some driving parameters drop. For
instance, the price and weather forecast for STLF is more accurate than that of MTLF. Due to
inaccuracies involved in long-term driving parameters, it is of common practice to perform
LTLF for several scenarios (such as various GDPs, weather forecasts, etc.).
Spatial Load Forecasting
Planning for the future expansion of a power system involves determining both the capacities
and the locations of future components; namely, generation facilities, transmission/ sub-
transmission/distribution lines and/or cables and various substations. This requires forecasting
the future loads with geographic distribution details (locations and magnitudes).
Spatial load forecasting is accomplished by dividing utility system into a number of small
areas and forecasting the load of each. Once the load of each cell is predicted, the electric
load of the system (or a larger geographical area) can be predicted.
Load of each cells (small areas) do not simultaneously demand their peak powers. The
coincidence factor(inverse of diversity factor) defined as the ratio of peak system load to
the sum of small areas peak loads is, normally in the range of 0.30.7.
For LTLF, we have to predict, initially, the small area loads (locations and magnitudes) in
order to plan (location, capacity and possible loading) for the future substations Once done,
we may move upwards to predict the magnitudes and the locations of higher level loads.
Long Term Load Forecasting Methods/Techniques
a) Trend Analysis(Extrapolation Method)
b) Correlation Method(Econometric Modelling)
c) End-Use Analysis
d) Combined Analysis
Techniques further classified as either deterministic, probabilistic or stochastic.
Trend Analysis
Uses the information of the past to forecast the load of the future by employing a curve
fitting approach.
Simple and inexpensive to implement.
Assumes the load driving parameters remains unchanged during the study period. if there is a
substantial change in economic growth, the approach fails to forecast the future load,
accurately.
To improve, in a modified trend analysis method, more weight may be given to the loads
towards the end of the past period.
Called deterministic extrapolation since random errors are not accounted for.
Standard analytical functions used in trend curve fitting are
Linear Curve Fitting (LCF) as follows Y = a + bX
Second order Curve Fitting (SCF) as follows Y = a + bX + cX 2
Third order Curve Fitting (TCF) as follows Y = a + bX + cX 2 + dX3
Exponential Curve Fitting (ECF) as follows Y = Ce dX
Gempertz Curve Fitting as follows Y = ln -1(a + CedX)
Econometric Modeling
initially the relationship(may be linear, nonlinear, additive or multiplicative) between
the load and the driving parameters is estimated based on available historical data.
The drawback is the assumption of holding the relationship established for the past to
be applicable for the future. In this way, the influence of any new driving parameter
cannot be taken into account. The other disadvantage is the need to forecast
demographic and economic factors, which can be more difficult than forecasting
system load.
A typical nonlinear estimation is

where i denotes the year and a, b, c and d are the parameters to be determined from the
historical data, Di is the demand for specified year.
Once this relationship is established, the future values of the driving variables (i.e. per
capita income, population, electricity price, etc.) should be projected. Di for a future year
can then be determined.
End-use Analysis
mostly confined to residential loads but may be applied with some modifications to
other load classes too.
Eg.:- If refrigerator is concerned, based on the number of households and estimating the
percent of households having a refrigerator, the number of refrigerators for a future year
may be estimated. Based on average energy use of such an appliance, the total energy
consumption of refrigerators may be estimated.
explicitly predicts the energy consumption. Some indirect approaches have to be used
to convert the predicted energy to load (power demand).
lead to accurate results if its extensive accurate data requirements can be provided.
Combined Analysis
The end-use and econometric methods may be simultaneously used to forecast the load. It
has the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches.