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OUTBREAK
EPIDEMIC
ENDEMIC
PANDEMIC
SEASONAL VARIATION
CHANCE
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EPIDEMIC/OUTBREAK
The occurrence of cases of an illness, specific health-related
behavior, or other health-related events, in a
community or region,
clearly in excess of normal expectations.
The community or region and the period in which the cases occur are
specified precisely.
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EPIDEMIC
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ENDEMIC
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PANDEMIC
Worldwide epidemic
SEASONAL VARIATION
Change in physiological status
or in disease occurrence that conforms to a
regular seasonal pattern
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CHANCE
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Infectious Disease
(Communicable Disease)
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Factors Involved in Infection
Agent
Environment Host
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Types of Transmission
Indirect transmission
Vehicle-borne transmission
(water, food, milk, biological products,
contaminated materials or objects)
Vector-borne transmission
(mechanical, biological)
Airborne transmission
(microbial aerosols)
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Infectious Chain Model
Agent
Mode of transmission
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Other Definitions
Vehicle
Mode of transport of an infectious agent through the environment to
a susceptible host.
Vector
A living carrier (usually an arthropod) that serves as a mode of
transport for an infectious agent from an infected host to a
susceptible host.
Reservoir
The primary habitat in which an infectious agent survives and
reproduces.
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Carrier
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Periods
Exposure period
Time during which an individual or group is exposed to a source of
infection
Incubation period
Time from initial infection (entry of infection) to onset of clinical
illness.
Latent period
Time from receiving infection to onset of infectiousness.
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Latent period
Exposure period
Incubation period
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Periods
Infectious (or communicable) period
Period during which an infected person is able
to transmit the infectious agent.
Only applicable when infection spreads from person to person e.g. the interval
between onset of rash in the primary case to onset of rash in a secondary case
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Use of Periods
Useful for:
Quarantine
Contact tracing
Identification of possible time of infection
Outbreak investigation
Disease modeling and forecasting
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Types of Outbreak
1. Common source
Transmission of an infectious agent involving a source
that is common to all outbreak-associated cases
Point source : brief common exposure. A
single source of pathogen results in exposure of persons at one point in time
Extended source :
Common source exposure present over days or weeks - intermitten :
at several points in time - continuous : over a
continuous period
Onset will still be abrupt but cases would be spread over a greater
period of time than one incubation period depending upon how long the
exposure persists.
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Types of Outbreak
3. Mixed epidemic
Involves both a common source epidemic and secondary
propagated spread to other individuals.
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DISEASE OUTBREAK INVESTIGATION
Data sources
The public
The media
Reports of clinical cases from health care providers
Surveillance data
(laboratory reports, disease notifications)
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When reports of an outbreak are received,
the following information should be gathered :
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Steps in outbreak investigation
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DETERMINE THE EVENT :
IS IT AN EPIDEMIC OR NOT?
How much the usual morbidity rate are?
Based on time, place, person
How are the usual pattern of the disease in the community?
TIME
When was the first case founded? The last?
How long the epidemic/outbreak happened?
Find the probable of the first exposed time!
Assume the type of the epidemic!
(common source? person to person?)
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PLACE
What place is the most prominent number of cases?
What are the attack rate based on places?
PERSON
Identify the age specific and sex specific attack rate!
What group has the highest and the lowest attack rate?
Determine that the characteristic of the cases are differ
significantly compared with the whole population
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COLLECTING DATA
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IDENTIFICATION OF AGENT OR THE SOURCE
OF INFECTION AND TRANSMISSION
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EPIDEMIC CONTROL (MANAGEMENT)
1. THE PATIENT
Adequate and prompt treatment
2. CONTROLLING against :
The primary source of infection
The reservoir (carrier, vector, environment)
Transmission vehicle (food, fluid, air etc.)
Susceptible contact person
3. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEILLANCE
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INVESTIGATION REPORT
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INVESTIGATION REPORT
2. BACKGROUND
A brief description about factors that cause the problem
(e.g. geographic, politic, economic, demographic and
historic)
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3. DESCRIPTION OF INVESTIGATION
ARRANGEMENT
Include :
- the reason
- the method
- source of information
- how to explore the cases
- verification of diagnoses
- use of sample cases and control in analyzing data,etc.
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4. THE FINDINGS
Only the fact finding should be reported; without any comment,
discussion or suggestion. The recent data could be related to the
previous data as it happened as an epidemic.
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RECOMMENDATION
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EPIDEMIC CURVE
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EPIDEMIC CURVE
STEPS OF MAKING DIAGRAM
1. Draw the X and Y line : X for time of onset of cases
Y for the number of cases
2. Select interval of time depend on the incubation period of the disease,
e.g. hourly, daily, weekly or monthly
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21 days
(max incubation
period)
Probable period
of exposure
14 days
(minimum incubation period)
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EPIDEMIC CURVE
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Propagated outbreak
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Extended source epidemic
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ATTACK RATE
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Definitions in an outbreak investigation
CLINICAL DESCRIPTION
Sign and symptoms found in the outbreak
CASE DEFINITION
Standard set of criteria for deciding whether an individual
should be classified as having the health condition of interest.
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Case definition
Confirmed cases
- have a positive laboratory result
- high spesificity
Probable cases
have the typical clinical features of the illness, but without laboratory
confirmation
Possible cases
- have fewer or atypical clinical features
- high sensitivity
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DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS
List of possible diagnosis, ordered from the most
possible one
DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY
Characterize the outbreak by time, place and person
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Place
A. The occurrence of diarrhea by source of water supply of
community A and B in January 2011
The attack rate of B was much lower than the attack rate of A.
In other case, people of B who visited A and drank the water A became sick,
the attack rate was 55.0% ;a quite high incidence.
The table shows that the highest risk is the special class out of the whole
population, followed by the test class, the 5th and the first class.
The lowest is the 4th class.
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C. The occurrence of hepatitis A among restaurant worker
who work at night at May 12 and 13, 2011
The table shows that the night workers are much higher risk to get
hepatitis than non night worker.
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PERSON
Attack rate per 100 person by age group in diarrhea
in Polyclinic A.
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Outbreak Control Team (OCT)
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An OCT may be considered when :
The outbreak poses an immediate health hazard to the
local population
There are many cases
The disease is important in terms of its severity or its
propensity to spread
Cases have occured over a widespread area without
obvious point source
Cases have occured in high-risk establishments
(schools, day-care centres, hospitals, food
premises,etc.)
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The role of the OCT :
to coordinate all the activities involved in the
investigation and control of an outbreak.
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5. Ensuring that all collaborators use a complementary
methodology
6. Conducting an environmental investigation of
suspected source
7. Agreeing and implementing control measures to
prevent the further spread
8. Working in concert with local medical providers to
make recommendations on treatment and/or
prophylaxis
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9. Organizing ongoing communications among OCT
members about the outbreak
10. Making arrangements for liaison with the media
11. Producing reports, including lessons learned, for
health authorities and other interested parties
12. Requesting external assistance
(e.g. secondment of a national investigation team)
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