Cholera

(Haiti)

- an infectious and often fatal bacterial disease of the small intestine, typically
contracted from infected water supplies and causing severe vomiting and diarrhea.
 Symptoms History
Vomiting During the 19th century, cholera
Diarrhea spread across the world from its original
Dehydration reservoir in the Ganges delta in India. Six
Seizures (Rare) subsequent pandemics killed millions of
people across all continents. The current
(seventh) pandemic started in South Asia
in 1961, and reached Africa in 1971 and
Treatment the Americas in 1991. Cholera is now
endemic in many countries such as Haiti,
Treatment includes rehydration, IV
India, and Several African Countries
fluids, and antibiotics.
Can cause death in hours if left
untreated
X 1000
 Growth Rate?
10 years? 20? 30?
In 10 years I predict that cholera will rise again due to the
the last point on the graph. The last point on the graph
showed an increase in population which could mean the
bacterium has mutated to resist current treatments
20 and 30 years I think that cholera will lower to about
10,000 cases a year and maybe less
 Summary

It seemed that Cholera followed a different

pattern than most other diseases. It expresses a
gaussian shaped function which showed the
rapid growth due to the population growth of
the disease and the rapid decay because of
doctors being able to understand how to lower
the population.
Dengue
Why is Dengue a threat?
Gaussian Model

0.3x2
y=7e
What can we do to stop it?
H7N9
Zack Branham
H7N9 is a form of the avian flu which is only transmitted zoologically.
This means the only way to get it is from an animal. This virus almost
always causes severe pneumonia. It has no vaccine, although it has
been treated with some of the medications we use to treat the common
seasonal flu with. The rate of death among those infected is 40%. China
has had 5 outbreaks of this disease and although they are small, this
virus cant spread between humans, so if it mutates to be able to it is
very likely to become a deadly pandemic. This is also worrying as China
has an aging population and the majority of its population is older and
therefore more susceptible and also more likely to die of the
complications of this virus such as severe pneumonia. The way that the
virus was combatted was by shutting down the live poultry markets
therefore stopping people from being exposed. China is also a very
large population and even though very few people are infected it would
have the potential to infect a massive amount of people where if it was
a place with a low population there would be a lower maximum to how
many people could be infected.
 2
- (x-30)
170
f(x)=4.5e
The reason for the graph going up and going back down is that once the
virus is known to be infecting people again and they make efforts to
avoid and minimize the amount of people exposed, and then the
number of new infections goes down and as people are treated the
number of cases goes down.
Future Growth
I expect that the future growth will be fairly similar to what it was in this
last seasonal outbreak, because as long as it does not mutate to be
spread from human to human, then it is limited by the amount of
exposure that humans have because if you are not in contact with the
bird that carries the virus, then you will most likely not contract the
virus. On the other hand if the virus does mutate to be able to spread
from human to human it has the potential to be a pandemic that would
have the ability to spread across the world and with a mortality rate of
40% that could have disastrous consequences. To put that 40% into
perspective if the entire US population of around 325 million contracted
this virus and 40% died that would be 130 million deaths or 6.678 times
the population of New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and
Philadelphia combined.
Learning
I learned that even though a disease or virus may not seem significant
that lots of the time all it might take is a single mutation that could lead
to it becoming a major world health threat that is very hard to stop and
that could wreak havoc on society. I also saw how the models of
exponential equations work and how to model exponential growth using
more than one type of exponential growth equation.