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## May not be scanned, copied

Slide 1
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 2
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Managers often base their decisions on an analysis
of uncertainties such as the following:

## What are the chances that sales will decrease

if we increase prices?

## What is the likelihood a new assembly method

will increase productivity?

## What are the odds that a new investment will

be profitable?

Slide 3
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood
that an event will occur.

from 0 to 1.

## A probability near zero indicates an event is quite

unlikely to occur.

## A probability near one indicates an event is almost

certain to occur.

Slide 4
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Increasing Likelihood of Occurrence

0 .5 1
Probability:

## The event The occurrence The event

is very of the event is is almost
unlikely just as likely as certain
to occur. it is unlikely. to occur.

Slide 5
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In statistics, the notion of an experiment differs
somewhat from that of an experiment in the
physical sciences.

outcomes.

## Even though the experiment is repeated in exactly

the same way, an entirely different outcome may
occur.

## For this reason, statistical experiments are some-

2015
times called random experiments.
Slide 6
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
An experiment is any process that generates well-
defined outcomes.

## The sample space for an experiment is the set of

all experimental outcomes.

## An experimental outcome is also called a sample

point.

Slide 7
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Experiment Experiment Outcomes
Inspection a part Defective, non-defective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie

Slide 8
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Investment Gain or Loss
in 3 Months (in \$1000s)
Markley Oil Collins Mining
10 8
5 -2
0
-20

Slide 9
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Slide 10
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Markley Oil: n1 = 4
Collins Mining: n2 = 2
Total Number of
Experimental Outcomes: n1n2 = (4)(2) = 8

Slide 11
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Markley Oil Collins Mining Experimental
(Stage 1) (Stage 2) Outcomes
Gain 8 (10, 8) Gain \$18,000
(10, -2) Gain \$8,000
Gain 10 Lose 2
Gain 8 (5, 8) Gain \$13,000

## Lose 2 (5, -2) Gain \$3,000

Gain 5
Gain 8
(0, 8) Gain \$8,000
Even
(0, -2) Lose \$2,000
Lose 20 Lose 2
Gain 8 (-20, 8) Lose \$12,000
Lose 2 (-20, -2) Lose \$22,000
Slide 12
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N N!
CnN
n n !(N - n )!

Slide 13
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N N!
PnN n !
n (N - n )!

Slide 14
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1. The probability assigned to each experimental
outcome must be between 0 and 1, inclusively.

## 0 < P(Ei) < 1 for all i

where:
Ei is the ith experimental outcome
and P(Ei) is its probability

Slide 15
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2. The sum of the probabilities for all experimental
outcomes must equal 1.

## P(E1) + P(E2) + . . . + P(En) = 1

where:
n is the number of experimental outcomes

Slide 16
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Classical Method
Assigning probabilities based on the assumption
of equally likely outcomes

## Relative Frequency Method

Assigning probabilities based on experimentation
or historical data

Subjective Method
Assigning probabilities based on judgment

Slide 17
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Slide 18
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Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days
0 4
1 6
2 18
3 10
4 2
Slide 19
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days Probability
0 4 .10
1 6 .15
2 18 .45 4/40
3 10 .25
4 2 .05
40 1.00
Slide 20
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Slide 21
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Exper. Outcome Net Gain or Loss Probability
(10, 8) \$18,000 Gain .20
(10, -2) \$8,000 Gain .08
(5, 8) \$13,000 Gain .16
(5, -2) \$3,000 Gain .26
(0, 8) \$8,000 Gain .10
(0, -2) \$2,000 Loss .12
(-20, 8) \$12,000 Loss .02
(-20, -2) \$22,000 Loss .06
Slide 22
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1.00
An event is a collection of sample points.

## The probability of any event is equal to the sum of

the probabilities of the sample points in the event.

## If we can identify all the sample points of an

experiment and assign a probability to each, we
can compute the probability of an event.

Slide 23
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Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
M = {(10, 8), (10, -2), (5, 8), (5, -2)}
P(M) = P(10, 8) + P(10, -2) + P(5, 8) + P(5, -2)
= .20 + .08 + .16 + .26
= .70

Slide 24
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
C = {(10, 8), (5, 8), (0, 8), (-20, 8)}
P(C) = P(10, 8) + P(5, 8) + P(0, 8) + P(-20, 8)
= .20 + .16 + .10 + .02
= .48

Slide 25
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Complement of an Event

## Mutually Exclusive Events

Slide 26
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The complement of event A is defined to be the event
consisting of all sample points that are not in A.

## The complement of A is denoted by Ac.

Sample
Event A Ac Space S

Venn
Diagram
Slide 27
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The union of events A and B is the event containing
all sample points that are in A or B or both.

## The union of events A and B is denoted by A B

Sample
Event A Event B Space S

Slide 28
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Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
or Collins Mining Profitable (or both)
M C = {(10, 8), (10, -2), (5, 8), (5, -2), (0, 8), (-20, 8)}
P(M C) = P(10, 8) + P(10, -2) + P(5, 8) + P(5, -2)
+ P(0, 8) + P(-20, 8)
= .20 + .08 + .16 + .26 + .10 + .02
2015 = Reserved.
Cengage Learning. All Rights .82 May not be scanned, copied
Slide 29
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The intersection of events A and B is the set of all
sample points that are in both A and B.

## The intersection of events A and B is denoted by A

Sample
Event A Event B Space S

Intersection of A and B
Slide 30
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Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
and Collins Mining Profitable
M C = {(10, 8), (5, 8)}
P(M C) = P(10, 8) + P(5, 8)
= .20 + .16
= .36
Slide 31
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The addition law provides a way to compute the
probability of event A, or B, or both A and B occurring.

## P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B

Slide 32
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Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
or Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C) = .48, P(M C) = .36
Thus: P(M C) = P(M) + P(C) - P(M C)
= .70 + .48 - .36
= .82
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 33
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the
events have no sample points in common.

## Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one event

occurs, the other cannot occur.

Sample
Event A Event B Space S

Slide 34
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If events A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A B = 0.

## P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

There is no need to
include - P(A B

Slide 35
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The probability of an event given that another event
has occurred is called a conditional probability.

by P(A|B).

## A conditional probability is computed as follows :

P( A B)
P( A|B)
P( B)

Slide 36
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Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
P(C| M ) = Collins Mining Profitable
given Markley Oil Profitable
We know: P(M C) = .36, P(M) = .70
P(C M ) .36
Thus: P(C | M ) .5143
P( M ) .70

Slide 37
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The multiplication law provides a way to compute the
probability of the intersection of two events.

## The law is written as:

P(A B) = P(B)P(A|B)

Slide 38
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable
and Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C|M) = .5143
Thus: P(M C) = P(M)P(M|C)
= (.70)(.5143)
= .36
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 39
Collins Mining
Markley Oil Profitable (C) Not Profitable (Cc) Total

## Profitable (M) .36 .34 .70

Not Profitable (Mc) .12 .18 .30

## Total .48 .52 1.00

Joint Probabilities
(appear in the body
Marginal Probabilities
of the table)
(appear in the margins
of the table)
Slide 40
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If the probability of event A is not changed by the
existence of event B, we would say that events A
and B are independent.

## P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)

Slide 41
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The multiplication law also can be used as a test to see
if two events are independent.

## The law is written as:

P(A B) = P(A)P(B)

Slide 42
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Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
Are events M and C independent?
Does P(M C) = P(M)P(C) ?
We know: P(M C) = .36, P(M) = .70, P(C) = .48
But: P(M)P(C) = (.70)(.48) = .34, not .36
Hence: M and C are not independent.

Slide 43
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Do not confuse the notion of mutually exclusive
events with that of independent events.

## Two events with nonzero probabilities cannot be

both mutually exclusive and independent.

## If one mutually exclusive event is known to occur,

the other cannot occur.; thus, the probability of the
other event occurring is reduced to zero (and they
are therefore dependent).

## Two events that are not mutually exclusive, might

2015 or might
Cengage Learning. All Rightsnot be independent.
Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 44
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Application
Prior New Posterior
of Bayes
Probabilities Information Probabilities
Theorem

Slide 45
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Slide 46
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A1 = town council approves the zoning change
A2 = town council disapproves the change

## P(A1) = .7, P(A2) = .3

Slide 47
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Slide 48
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P(B|A1) = .2 P(B|A2) = .9

P(BC|A1) = .8 P(BC|A2) = .1

Slide 49
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Town Council Planning Board Experimental
Outcomes

P(B|A1) = .2
P(A1 B) = .14
P(A1) = .7
c
P(B |A1) = .8 P(A1 Bc) = .56

P(B|A2) = .9
P(A2 B) = .27
P(A2) = .3
c
P(B |A2) = .1 P(A2 Bc) = .03
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1.00 Slide 50
P( Ai )P( B| Ai )
P( Ai |B)
P( A1 )P( B| A1 ) P( A2 )P( B| A2 ) ... P( An )P( B| An )

Slide 51
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P( A1 )P( B| A1 )
P( A1 |B)
P( A1 )P( B| A1 ) P( A2 )P( B| A2 )
(. 7 )(. 2 )

(. 7 )(. 2 ) (. 3)(. 9)
= .34

Slide 52
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Slide 53
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 54
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional
Events Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai)
A1 .7 .2
A2 .3 .9
1.0

Slide 55
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 56
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B)

A1 .7 .2 .14
A2 .3 .9 .27
.7 x .2
1.0

Slide 57
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Slide 58
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 59
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B)
A1 .7 .2 .14
A2 .3 .9 .27
1.0 P(B) = .41

Slide 60
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
P( Ai B)
P( Ai | B)
P( B)

Slide 61
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(B|Ai) P(Ai I B) P(Ai |B)

A1 .7 .2 .14 .3415
A2 .3 .9 .27 .6585
1.0 P(B) = .41 1.0000

.14/.41
Slide 62
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.40

.30

.20

.10

0 1 2 3 4

Slide 63
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A random variable is a numerical description of the
outcome of an experiment.

## A discrete random variable may assume either a

finite number of values or an infinite sequence of
values.

## A continuous random variable may assume any

numerical value in an interval or collection of
intervals.

Slide 64
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Let x = number of TVs sold at the store in one day,
where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)

Slide 65
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Let x = number of customers arriving in one day,
where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .

Slide 66
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Question Random Variable x Type

## Family x = Number of dependents Discrete

size reported on tax return
Distance from x = Distance in miles from Continuous
home to store home to the store site
Own dog x = 1 if own no pet; Discrete
or cat = 2 if own dog(s) only;
= 3 if own cat(s) only;
= 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)

Slide 67
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The probability distribution for a random variable
describes how probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable.

## We can describe a discrete probability distribution

with a table, graph, or formula.

Slide 68
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Two types of discrete probability distributions will
be introduced.

## First type: uses the rules of assigning probabilities

to experimental outcomes to determine probabilities
for each value of the random variable.

## Second type: uses a special mathematical formula

to compute the probabilities for each value of the
random variable.

Slide 69
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The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), that provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.

## The required conditions for a discrete probability

function are:
f(x) > 0

f(x) = 1

Slide 70
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
There are three methods for assign probabilities to
random variables: classical method, subjective
method, and relative frequency method.

## The use of the relative frequency method to develop

discrete probability distributions leads to what is
called an empirical discrete distribution.
example
on next
slide

Slide 71
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Number 80/200
Units Sold of Days x f(x)
0 80 0 .40
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
Slide 72
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Graphical
.50 representation
of probability
.40 distribution
Probability
.30
.20
.10

0 1 2 3 4
Values
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights of Random
Reserved. May not beVariable x (TV
scanned, copied sales) Slide 73
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
In addition to tables and graphs, a formula that
gives the probability function, f(x), for every value
of x is often used to describe the probability
distributions.

## Several discrete probability distributions specified

by formulas are the discrete-uniform, binomial,
Poisson, and hypergeometric distributions.

Slide 74
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The discrete uniform probability distribution is the
simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.

## f(x) = 1/n the values of the

random variable
are equally likely
where:
n = the number of values the random
variable may assume

Slide 75
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The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.
E(x) = = xf(x)

## The expected value is a weighted average of the

values the random variable may assume. The
weights are the probabilities.

## The expected value does not have to be a value the

random variable can assume.

Slide 76
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The variance summarizes the variability in the
values of a random variable.

Var(x) = 2 = (x - )2f(x)

## The variance is a weighted average of the squared

deviations of a random variable from its mean.
The weights are the probabilities.

## The standard deviation, , is defined as the

positive square root of the variance.
Slide 77
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x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) = 1.20

expected number of
2015 Cengage Learning. TVs Reserved.
All Rights sold inMay
a day
not be scanned, copied
Slide 78
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
x x- (x - )2 f(x) (x - )2f(x)
0 -1.2 1.44 .40 .576
1 -0.2 0.04 .25 .010
2 0.8 0.64 .20 .128
3 1.8 3.24 .05 .162 TVs
4 2.8 7.84 .10 .784 squared
Variance of daily sales = 2 = 1.660
Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs
Slide 79
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A probability distribution involving two random
variables is called a bivariate probability distribution.

## Each outcome of a bivariate experiment consists of

two values, one for each random variable.
Example: rolling a pair of dice

## When dealing with bivariate probability distributions,

we are often interested in the relationship between
the random variables.

Slide 80
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Benefits Job Satisfaction (y)
Package (x) 1 2 3 Total
1 28 26 4 58
2 22 42 34 98
3 2 10 32 44

Total 52 78 70 200

Slide 81
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Benefits Job Satisfaction (y)
Package (x) 1 2 3 Total
1 .14 .13 .02 .29
2 .11 .21 .17 .49
3 .01 .05 .16 .22
Total .26 .39 .35 1.00

Slide 82
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x f(x) xf(x) x - E(x) (x - E(x))2 (x - E(x))2f(x)

## E(x) = 1.93 Var(x) = 0.505100

Slide 83
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y f(y) yf(y) y - E(y) (y - E(y))2 (y - E(y))2f(y)

## E(y) = 2.09 Var(y) = 0.601900

Slide 84
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s f(s) sf(s) s - E(s) (s - E(s))2 (s - E(s))2f(s)

## 2 0.14 0.28 -2.02 4.0804 0.571256

3 0.24 0.72 -1.02 1.0404 0.249696
4 0.24 0.96 -0.02 0.0004 0.000960
5 0.22 1.10 0.98 0.9604 0.211376
6 0.16 0.96 1.98 3.9204 0.627264
E(s) = 4.02 Var(s) = 1.660552
Slide 85
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Varxy = [Var(x + y) Var(x) Var(y)]/2

Slide 86
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x 0.5051 0.7107038

y 0.6019 0.7758221
xy
xy xy 0.276776 0.526095
x y
0.526095
xy 0.954
0.7107038(0.7758221)

Slide 87
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1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.

on each trial.

## 3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does

not change from trial to trial.
stationarity
4. The trials are independent. assumption
Slide 88
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Our interest is in the number of successes
occurring in the n trials.

## We let x denote the number of successes

occurring in the n trials.

Slide 89
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n!
f (x) p x (1 - p )( n - x )
x !(n - x )!
where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on one trial
n = the number of trials
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n! = n(n 1)(n 2) .. (2)(1)

Slide 90
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n!
f (x) p x (1 - p )( n - x )
x !(n - x )!

Probability of a particular
Number of experimental
sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly
with x successes in n trials
x successes in n trials

Slide 91
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Slide 92
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Slide 93
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Experimental Probability of
Outcome Experimental Outcome
(S, F, F) p(1 p)(1 p) = (.1)(.9)(.9) = .081
(F, S, F) (1 p)p(1 p) = (.9)(.1)(.9) = .081
(F, F, S) (1 p)(1 p)p = (.9)(.9)(.1) = .081
Total = .243

Slide 94
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Using the
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1 probability
function
n!
f ( x) p x (1 - p ) (n - x )
x !( n - x )!
3!
f (1) (0.1)1 (0.9)2 3(.1)(.81) .243
1!(3 - 1)!

Slide 95
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Using a tree diagram
1st Worker 2nd Worker 3rd Worker x Prob.
L (.1) 3 .0010
Leaves (.1)
S (.9) 2 .0090
Leaves
(.1) L (.1) 2 .0090
Stays (.9)
S (.9) 1 .0810
L (.1) 2 .0090
Leaves (.1)
Stays S (.9) 1 .0810
(.9) L (.1)
1 .0810
Stays (.9)
Slide 96
S part.
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in (.9) 0 .7290
Statisticians have developed tables that give
probabilities and cumulative probabilities for a
binomial random variable.

textbooks.

## With modern calculators and the capability of

statistical software packages, such tables are
almost unnecessary.

Slide 97
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
p
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250

Slide 98
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Expected Value

E(x) = = np

Variance

Var(x) = 2 = np(1 - p)

Standard Deviation

np(1 - p )

Slide 99
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Example: Evans Electronics

Expected Value

Variance

## Var(x) = np(1 p) = 3(.1)(.9) = .27

Standard Deviation

## 3(.1)(.9) .52 employees

Slide 100
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
A Poisson distributed random variable is often
useful in estimating the number of occurrences
over a specified interval of time or space

## It is a discrete random variable that may assume

an infinite sequence of values (x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ).

Slide 101
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Examples of Poisson distributed random variables:

pine board

## the number of vehicles arriving at a toll

booth in one hour

## Bell Labs used the Poisson distribution to model

the arrival of phone calls.

Slide 102
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
1. The probability of an occurrence is the same
for any two intervals of equal length.

## 2. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any

interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.

Slide 103
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
x e-
f ( x)
x!
where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an interval
= mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
x! = x(x 1)(x 2) . . . (2)(1)
Slide 104
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Since there is no stated upper limit for the number
of occurrences, the probability function f(x) is
applicable for values x = 0, 1, 2, without limit.

## In practical applications, x will eventually become

large enough so that f(x) is approximately zero
and the probability of any larger values of x
becomes negligible.

Slide 105
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 106
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Using the
probability
= 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4 function

3 4 (2.71828)-3
f (4) .1680
4!

Slide 107
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Poisson Probabilities
0.25

0.20
Probability

Actually,
0.15
the sequence
0.10 continues:
11, 12, 13
0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number
May not Arrivals in 30 Minutes
scanned, copied
Slide 108
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
A property of the Poisson distribution is that
the mean and variance are equal.
= 2

Slide 109
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
=2=3

Slide 110
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The hypergeometric distribution is closely related
to the binomial distribution.

## the probability of success changes from trial

to trial.

Slide 111
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
r N - r

x n - x
f ( x)
N

n
where: x = number of successes
n = number of trials
f(x) = probability of x successes in n trials
N = number of elements in the population
r = number of elements in the population
labeled success
Slide 112
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
r N -r
x n-x

f (x) for 0 < x < r
N
n number of ways
n x failures can be selected
number of ways from a total of N r failures
x successes can be selected in the population
from a total of r successes
in the population number of ways
n elements can be selected
be scanned, copied of size N
Slide 113
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
The probability function f(x) on the previous slide
is usually applicable for values of x = 0, 1, 2, n.

## However, only values of x where: 1) x < r and

2) n x < N r are valid.

## If these two conditions do not hold for a value of

x, the corresponding f(x) equals 0.

Slide 114
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Slide 115
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Using the
probability
function
r N - r 2 2 2! 2!
1
x n - x 2 0 2!0! 0!2!
f ( x ) .167
N 4 4! 6

n
2
2!2!

Slide 116
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Mean

r
E ( x) n
N

Variance

r r N - n
Var ( x) n 1 -
2

N N N - 1

Slide 117
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Mean

r 2
n 2 1
N 4

Variance

2 2 4 - 2 1
2 1 -
2
.333
4 4 4 - 1 3
Slide 118
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Consider a hypergeometric distribution with n trials
and let p = (r/n) denote the probability of a success
on the first trial.

## If the population size is large, the term

(N n)/(N 1) approaches 1.

## The expected value and variance can be written

E(x) = np and Var(x) = np(1 p).

## Note that these are the expressions for the expected

value and variance of a binomial distribution.