Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
x
x
x
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 1
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Continuous Probability Distributions
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 2
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Continuous Probability Distributions
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
x
x x1 xx12 x2
x1 x 2
x
x1 x 2
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 3
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uniform Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 4
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uniform Probability Distribution
Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 5
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uniform Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 6
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uniform Probability Distribution
where:
x = salad plate filling weight
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 7
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uniform Probability Distribution
Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 5)2/12
= 8.33
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 8
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uniform Probability Distribution
f(x)
1/10
x
0 5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 9
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Uniform Probability Distribution
f(x)
x
0 5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 10
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Area as a Measure of Probability
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 11
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Normal Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 12
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Normal Probability Distribution
1 ( x )2 /2 2
f (x) e
2
where:
= mean
= standard deviation
= 3.14159
e = 2.71828
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 13
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 14
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Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
Standard Deviation
x
Mean
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 15
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 16
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
x
-10 0 25
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 17
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
= 15
= 25
x
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 18
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
.5 .5
x
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 19
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 20
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
x
+ 3
3 1 + 1
2 + 2
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 21
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 22
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
z
0
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 23
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
x
z
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 24
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 25
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 26
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
z = (x - )/
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 28
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Probability
of a stockout P(x > 20)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 29
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033
z
0 .83
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 30
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 31
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Area = .9500
Area = .0500
z
0 z.05
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 32
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
x = + z.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87 or 25
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 34
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Probability Distribution
Probability of no
Probability of a
stockout during
stockout during
replenishment
replenishment
lead-time = .95
lead-time = .05
x
15 24.87
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 35
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 36
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Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 37
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Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 38
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Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
Example
Suppose that a company has a history of making
errors in 10% of its invoices. A sample of 100
invoices has been taken, and we want to compute
the probability that 12 invoices contain errors.
In this case, we want to find the binomial
probability of 12 successes in 100 trials. So, we set:
= np = 100(.1) = 10
np (1 p ) = [100(.1)(.9)] = 3
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 39
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
=3
P(11.5 < x < 12.5)
(Probability
of 12 Errors)
x
= 10 12.5
11.5
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 40
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
x
10 12.5
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 41
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
x
10
11.5
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 42
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Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
P(x = 12)
= .7967 - .6915
= .1052
x
10 12.5
11.5
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 43
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Exponential Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 44
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Exponential Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 45
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Exponential Probability Distribution
Density Function
1
f ( x) e x / for x > 0
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 46
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Exponential Probability Distribution
Cumulative Probabilities
P ( x x0 ) 1 e xo /
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 47
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Exponential Probability Distribution
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 48
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Exponential Probability Distribution
f(x)
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 49
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Relationship between the Poisson
and Exponential Distributions
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 50
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Homework 1 Review
Chapter 2:
5
22
40
Chapter 3:
28
33
57
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 51
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Thats All for Today!
2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 52
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.