Answers to Selected Questions

Barry Boehm
CS 510, Pre Midterm 1
September 21, 2015
 Risk and Time to Ship
Risk exposure- is there anything else that can mitigate risk exposure besides
time to ship? I noticed in the PowerPoint that as time to ship increases risk
exposure decreases. Is there anything related to evidence besides time to ship
that can cause risk exposure to fluctuate? (ICSM Principles 3 & 4; slide 20&21)

In slide 21, Time to Ship is only addressing risk due to unacceptable

dependability. As seen in slide 22, the risk of market share erosion increases
with time to ship. Risk management is all about balancing the sources of risk,
as seen in slide 23.
 Example RE Profile: Time to Ship
- Loss due to unacceptable dependability

Many defects: high P(L)

Critical defects: high S(L)

RE =
P(L) * S(L)
Few defects: low P(L)
Minor defects: low S(L)

Time to Ship (amount of testing)

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 Example RE Profile: Time to Ship
- Loss due to unacceptable dependability
- Loss due to market share erosion

Many defects: high P(L) Many rivals: high P(L)

Critical defects: high S(L) Strong rivals: high S(L)

RE =
P(L) * S(L)
Few rivals: low P(L)
Weak rivals: low S(L) Few defects: low P(L)
Minor defects: low S(L)

Time to Ship (amount of testing)

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 Example RE Profile: Time to Ship
- Sum of Risk Exposures

Many defects: high P(L) Many rivals: high P(L)

Critical defects: high S(L) Strong rivals: high S(L)

RE = Sweet
P(L) * S(L) Spot
Few rivals: low P(L)
Weak rivals: low S(L) Few defects: low P(L)
Minor defects: low S(L)

Time to Ship (amount of testing)

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Choosing Versions of COCOMO II

With regard to the Early Design and Post-Architecture models in

COCOMO II, when would choose one over the other/what is the
appropriate point in the development lifecycle to transition from early
design to post-architecture? What should you do if different parts
are in different phases?

In general, it is best to use the Applications Composition model in the

Exploratory phase, the Early Design model in the late Exploratory or
early Valuation phase, and the Post-architecture model in the late
Valuation or Foundations phase. It is best to try to have a Post-
Architecture estimate by the end of the valuation phase.

If different parts are in different phases, it is best to follow the

guidance above for each part.
 Reducing IDPD
Is it possible to minimize the effects of Incremental Development
Productivity Decline (IDPD) through design decisions? Many of the
examples in the book demonstrate that platform flexibility and reuse
across product lines can make a good business case for trading
additional early complexity for a product ecosystem that reuses earlier
development work. How does this balance with IDPD, when a software
artifact must support multiple product lines? Does that have an
unintended effect on the business case?

Yes. When a product line is feasible, developing its architecture and

reusable components will reduce the needed effort, particularly if the
increments are subsequent releases of the product line. There will still
be some IDPD for the earlier releases if they need to be kept up to date.
Similar strategies will work for multiple product lines. Other strategies
such as identifying and modularizing around major sources of change
will also reduce IDPD.
 MedFRS Additional Personnel

In HW3 table 7-3, discussed system upkeep and additional personnel figures, do
we need to use this in calculations and if so how would they apply?

The additional personnel are to be hired once the Initial Operational Capability is
ready to be operated. Thus they are not covered in Homework 3. They could be
continuing expenditures for a subsequent business case.
 Calibrating COCOMO II

So we learned about the A, B, C, D variables in the COCOMO II model and Dr.

Boehm mentioned that while the variables are based off empirical data, they can
be custom calibrated. Lets say I am a portfolio manager and I want to use my
firms historical data to accomplish this. How would I go about doing this?

You can get a free COCOMO II calibration package from Softstar Systems called
Calico by Googling on calico costar and clicking on the Softstar Systems website
url.
 Personnel and Team Factors
Question I: In EP-2 page 47, about personnel factors section 2.3.2.1.3, it
says the personnel factors are for rating the development teams capability
and experience, not the individual. In EP-2 page 34, about TEAM cohesion
section 2.3.1.4, it says The team cohesion scale factor accounts for the
sources of project turbulence and entropy because of difficulties in
synchronizing the projects stakeholders. The question is how to deal with
these factors when their sources are overlapped by each other, when
developers are also stakeholders. In other words, inexperienced developers
are counted twice by TEAM factor and personnel factors.

The TEAM factor adds effort caused by difficulties in getting all of the
success-critical stakeholder teams (Developers, Customers, Maintainers,
Users, Suppliers, etc.) to collaborate. This source of effort is largely
independent of the level of experience of the members of the Development
team. Highly experienced developers can sometimes be even less
cooperative.
 Cost Effects of CMMI Levels
- COCOMO II has the equation of calculating the schedule and cost for a software
program development and maintenance, however in the Aerospace industry
where they are CMMI compliant and requires activities such as Peer Reviewing,
SCM maintenance, and other activities that are SLOCC dependent. Is there any
cost estimation equation that links cost and schedule of software development
and CMMI activities?

- The COCOMO II Process Maturity (PMAT) scale factor covers the cost effects of
CMMI levels (see Table 2.15 in EP-2, Chapter 2 of the COCOMO II book).
COCOMO II was developed in 1995-2000, when the Software CMM was being
used, but we have found that the CMMI scale is roughly the same. In general,
improving by one CMMI level will decrese cost by about 10%.
 Overlaps Among the ICSM Principles

As for ICSM Principle 1, in the book on page 44&45 discussing valuation and
foundations phases, there were some example of prototyping and using it to test
with stakeholders, to see if it is well enough to be build-to specific product in the
near future. However, isnt this kind of action more like Principle 4 standards?
Evidence Decision, ex: providing prototypes for valued customer, to see the defects
earlier and they could have caught the failure in early stage. Need some specific
explanation in these overlapping confusions.

The ICSM principles are not meant to be mutually exclusive. As with other good
practices such as Teambuilding and Win-Win Negotiation, Prototyping supports all
four principles. As above, it supports stakeholders mutual understanding for
Principle 1. It supports stakeholders incrementally committing to partial versions
of the system for Principle 2. It involves concurrently engineering the systems
operational concept, requirements, and user interface for Principle 3. And as above,
it provides evidence of system feasibility for Principle 4.
 Alternatives to Competitive Prototyping
In the RPV failure story from the ICSM book Ch. 3, some of its failure can be attributed to
shortcomings with respect to Principle 2, incremental commitment and accountability, on
both the part of the customer and the winning bidder. Would a better approach have been a)
in order to facilitate incremental commitment, rather than publishing a comprehensive
proposal that encapsulated all of their wishes for the future of RPV, the customer could have
published a proposal prioritizing their requirements, or b) following one of the critical
elements of effective commitment, the winning bidder should have been forthcoming about
both their ability to fulfill some requirements, or c) both? If both, whats a good approach to
finding that sweet spot? Is it just a matter of trial and error? If neither, are there other better
approaches other than concurrent competitive prototyping?

For the 4:1 RPV, there were many serious uncertainties about the nature of the missions to be
supported, the maturity of some of the technologies, and the performance characteristics of
the RPVs and their controllers. Neither the customer nor the bidders had enough knowledge
of these uncertainties to define or prioritize requirements. As discussed at the end of Section
3.2, competitive prototyping has a number of practical difficulties, but it fulfills some of the
characteristics of prototyping as a way of buying information to reduce uncertainty and risk.
There are other approaches, such as the DARPA approach of offering million-dollar prizes for
such feats as producing the fastest unpiloted ground vehicle to reach Las Vegas.
 Overlaps Among the ICSM Principles - 2
I'm having a little bit of trouble discerning between incremental commitment and risk-
based decisions, or at least they seem very strongly connected to me. It seems to me
that if a team did well at making risk-based decisions, then they would be successful
at making incremental commitments as well (since the risk would be too high to
make the commitment if there was not enough evidence that the work could be
done). Conversely, if they did poorly at making risk-based decisions, this would
cause them to make bad commitments. From this, it seems there is a causal
relationship between Principle 4 and Principle 2. Am I correct in inferring this, or am I
getting confused?

As above, the principles overlap considerably, and thats OK. As seen in some of the
stories, some of the failure stories fail at all 4 of the principles, and some of the
success stories succeed at all 4 of the principles.
 Evaluating Competitive Prototyping
In page 89 of the ICSM book, it discusses the potential risks in the success story of the
concurrent competitive prototyping RPV systems development. In the solution for HW2
question 5, the second risk listed is from that page, which is an extra expense in keeping
prototype teams together and productive during often-overlong evaluation and decision
periods. The mitigation for this risk is to have contracts be for two phases, where the
contractors second phase overlaps with evaluation of their first phase. I dont
understand how can the two phases be overlapped? If they didnt finish the first phase,
could they go to the second phase? Can you give an example for this?

It is a nontrivial job to evaluate competitive prototypes. If it is not done thoroughly, the

losing competitor can protest the decision, leading to many months delay in judging the
protest. A thorough evaluation will take several months, and require a versatile
infrastructure for exercising several independently-developed prototypes. The
evaluations determine the next round of prototypers, and thus cannot overlap the
previous round or the next round. The competitors cant afford to keep their teams paid
for several months while they wait to see if they are still in the competition. The best
solution is for the customer to provide funds for keeping the core teams together, and to
have them answer questions and perform followup exercises of their prototypes.
 The Second Cone of Uncertainty
In page 89 of the ICSM book, it discusses the potential risks in the success story of
the concurrent competitive prototyping RPV systems development. In the solution
for HW2 question 5, the second risk listed is from that page, which is an extra
expense in keeping prototype teams together and productive during often-overlong
evaluation and decision periods. The mitigation for this risk is to have contracts be
for two phases, where the contractors second phase overlaps with evaluation of
their first phase. I dont understand how can the two phases be overlapped? If they
didnt finish the first phase, could they go to the second phase? Can you give an
example for this?

As shown in the next chart, the increasingly rapid rate of change in a products
competition, technology, organization, and mission priorities will make a projects
originally-determined requirements increasingly obsolete. Simply following the
original requirements will miss both capitalizing on new technology and saving
costs, and responding to competitive pressures and increasing costs. The longer
the period of development, the wider will be the Second Cone of Uncertainty.
 The Cones of Uncertainty
Need incremental definition and development

Uncertainties in competition,
technology, organizations,
mission priorities

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Skipping the Valuation and Foundations Phases

What if a project was started using one of the traditional software development
models, leaving us with a good documentation about the scope and
technology about the project, does skipping the valuation and exploration
phase violate the ICSM principle? If yes, is there a way we can use the existing
documentation without violating the ICSM principles? (Chapter 0)

If the project is relatively small, there is little risk of skipping the Valuation and
Foundations phases and doing short agile sprints and releases, as the Second
Cone of Uncertainty can be rebaselined for the next sprint or release. For
larger projects, using the existing documentation for the whole project will run
the risk of becoming obsolete per the Second Cone of Uncertainty. However,
proceeding incrementally (as with the MedFRS example) can reduce this risk.
 ICSM and Waterfall

In the exam, whether we will be asked the question related to

other software models such as waterfall model, and spiral model
that has been covered in lecture 1? _For example, the question:
The ICSM is better than Waterfall in saving money true or false.

Since the waterfall model and most other models are special
cases of the ICSM, that will not be an exam question.
RPV Failure Story and Principle 2

REFERENCE: HW 2, RPV FAILURE STORY( FAILURE WITH

RESPECT TO PRINCIPLE 2) Could you explain the failures with
respect to Principle 2 which speaks about Incremental
commitment and accountability since I lost points for that
answer in my homework so I wondering if I got the concept
wrong.

The RPV failure story was a failure because it made a total

commitment to a requirement, budget, and schedule without
evidence that this approach was feasible. Thus it was an
example of the need for Principles 2 and 4 as well as Principle
3. Since the RPV controllers would be stakeholders, it could
also be called a failure with respect to Principle 1.
TRW-SPS and the 4 ICSM Principles
In Chapter 2 section 2.2, the book and slides mostly focus on the
success with respect to Principle 2,(and also part of principle 4 I
think),could you please determine how the success of TRW SPS is
respecting to the other Principles of ICSM?

TRW-SPS followed Principle 1 in asking stakeholders for their

opinions about how best to improve productivity and including
the results in the strategy. It followed Principle 3 in incrementally
defining the systems technology and architecture choices, and
incrementally developing the early-adopter projects high-priority
requirements first. It followed Principle 4 in assessing evidence of
feasibility and risks of making the wrong commitments.
Risks of Proceeding on Small and Large Projects

1, Why the author says it is less risky to proceed with the evidence
shortfall on a small project with a small cost of rework, than to forge
ahead with a very large project with a very large cost of rework? Does
he mean it is better to invest in evidence on small project than on large
project because it can avoid the rework? I am confused with the
meaning of this part. Reference: ICSM book Ch. 4 Page 98

A risk-based decision as in Principle 4 is one that avoids large risks.

Since the risks are small on small projects it is less necessary to proceed
with complete evidence of feasibility, as compared to large projects.
Decision Reviews Without Evidence

Please explain how evidence serve as a important criterion at

milestone decision reviews with real time example and its relation
with respect to traditional schedule-based or event based reviews?
(Ref: ICSM p 97)

One explanation is the failure story of the Unaffordable Requirement

where the project customer decided to proceed without evidence of
feasibility. There are numerous other examples, such as the Master
Net example in Chapter 2, the failed RPV example in Chapter 3, and
the healthcare.gov example on section 0.7.
 Exam Format
What will be the exam format? i.e., will the questions be similar
to the homework (short answer), will there be T/F or multiple
choice sections, if there are multiple sections how will they be
weighted... [Note: This may not be the type of question you
were hoping for from this assignment, but it is one that I feel
will help me best prepare for the exam.]

Jim Alstads response is correct for Midterm 1, in that the

format follows last years Midterm 1 format: 2 calculation
questions worth 30 and 40 points, and 10 true-false questions
worth 3 points each. The calculations will not involve exotic
parts of EP-2, but may involve business case formulas. There is
no guarantee that Midterm 2 and the Final Exam will follow last
years formats.