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Example:
A population of 100,000 people has an
average IQ of 100 (If you actually could
measure them all!)
If you sample 5 random people from this
population, what will you get?
Sampling Variation
Mean
IQ=100
Sampling Variation and
Sample Size
Do you expect more or less sampling
variability in samples of 10 people?
Of 50 people?
Of 1000 people?
Of 100,000 people?
Standard error
Standard error is the standard deviation
of a sample statistic.
Its a measure of sampling variability.
What is statistical inference?
The field of statistics provides guidance
on how to make conclusions in the face
of this chance variation.
Example 1: Difference in
proportions
Research Question: Are antidepressants
a risk factor for suicide attempts in
children and adolescents?
Any antidepressant
drug ever 120 (46%) 448 (36%)
46% 36%
Difference=10%
What does a 10% difference
mean?
Before we perform any formal statistical
analysis on these data, we already have
a lot of information.
Look at the basic numbers first; THEN
consider statistical significance as a
secondary guide.
Is the association statistically
significant?
This 10% difference could reflect a true
association or it could be a fluke in this
particular sample.
The question: is 10% bigger or smaller
than the expected sampling variability?
What is hypothesis testing?
Statisticians try to answer this question
with a formal hypothesis test
Hypothesis testing
Step 1: Assume the null hypothesis.
Standard error:
measure of
variability of
sample statistics
Standard error is
about 3.3%
Hypothesis Testing
Step 3: Do an experiment
.10
Z= = 3.0; p = .003
.033
What is a P-value?
P-value=the probability of
your data or something
more extreme under the null
hypothesis.
From our simulation, we
estimate the p-value to be:
3/1000 or .003
Hypothesis Testing
Step 5: Reject or do not reject the null hypothesis.
Standard error is
about 10%
50 cases and 50
controls.
With only 50 cases and 50 controls
If we ran this
Standard study 1000 times,
error is we would expect to
about 10% get values of 10%
or higher 170 times
(or 17% of the
time).
Two-tailed p-value
Two-tailed
p-value =
17%x2=34%
What does a 10% difference
mean (50 cases/50 controls)?
Is it statistically significant? NO
Is it clinically significant? MAYBE
Is this a causal association? MAYBE
Difference=4 points
What does a 4-point
difference mean?
Before we perform any formal statistical
analysis on these data, we already have
a lot of information.
Look at the basic numbers first; THEN
consider statistical significance as a
secondary guide.
Is the association statistically
significant?
This 4-point difference could reflect a
true effect or it could be a fluke.
The question: is a 4-point difference
bigger or smaller than the expected
sampling variability?
Hypothesis testing
Step 1: Assume the null hypothesis.
Standard error is
about 0.52
Standard error:
measure of
variability of
sample statistics
Hypothesis Testing
Step 3: Do an experiment
4
t88 8 p-value <.0001
.52
What is the P-value?
If we ran this
study 1000 times
we wouldnt
expect to get 1
result as big as a
difference of 4
(under the null
hypothesis).
P-value
P-value=the probability of
your data or something
more extreme under the null
hypothesis.
Here, p-value<.0001
Hypothesis Testing
Step 5: Reject or do not reject the null hypothesis.
Reject H0
Type I error () Correct
Do not reject H0
Correct Type II Error ()
Reminds me of
Pascals Wager
The TRUTH
Your Decision God Exists God Doesnt Exist
Reject God
BIG MISTAKE Correct
Reject H0
Type I error () Correct
Do not reject H0
Correct Type II Error ()
Review Question 1
If we have a p-value of 0.03 and so decide that our
effect is statistically significant, what is the
probability that were wrong (i.e., that the
hypothesis test gave us a false positive)?
a. .03
b. .06
c. Cannot tell
d. 1.96
e. 95%
Review Question 1
If we have a p-value of 0.03 and so decide that our
effect is statistically significant, what is the
probability that were wrong (i.e., that the
hypothesis test gave us a false positive)?
a. .03
b. .06
c. Cannot tell
d. 1.96
e. 95%
Review Question 2
Standard error is:
Rejection region.
Null Any value >= 6.5
Distribution: (0+3.3*1.96)
difference=0.
For 5% significance level,
one-tail area=2.5%
(Z/2 = 1.96)
Rejection region.
Any value >= 6.5
(0+3.3*1.96)
Z/2=1.96
2.5% area
Power closer to
20% now.
Study 2: 18 treated, 72 controls, STD DEV = 2
Critical value=
0+0.52*1.96 = 1
Clinically relevant
alternative: Power is nearly
difference=4 points 100%!
Study 2: 18 treated, 72 controls, STD DEV=10
Critical value=
0+2.59*1.96 = 5
Power is about
40%
Study 2: 18 treated, 72 controls, effect size=1.0
Critical value=
0+0.52*1.96 = 1
Power is about
50%
Clinically relevant
alternative:
difference=1 point
Factors Affecting Power
1. Size of the effect
2. Standard deviation of the characteristic
3. Bigger sample size
4. Significance level desired
1. Bigger difference from the null mean
Null
Clinically
relevant
alternative
Rejection region.
( p )(1 p )( Z Z /2 ) 2
n
(p 1 p 2 ) 2
Represents the
A measure of Effect Size desired level of
variability (similar to (the difference statistical
standard deviation) in proportions) significance
(typically 1.96).
Simple formula for difference
in means Represents the
desired power
Sample size in each (typically .84 for
group (assumes equal 80% power).
sized groups)
( Z Z /2 )
2 2
n 2
diffe re nce
Represents the
Standard deviation desired level of
Effect Size
of the outcome statistical
(the difference
variable significance
in means)
(typically 1.96).
Sample size calculators on the
web
http://biostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/twiki/bi
n/view/Main/PowerSampleSize
http://calculators.stat.ucla.edu
http://hedwig.mgh.harvard.edu/sample
_size/size.html
These sample size calculations are
idealized
They do not account for losses-to-follow up
(prospective studies)
They do not account for non-compliance (for
intervention trial or RCT)
They assume that individuals are independent
observations (not true in clustered designs)
Consult a statistician!
Review Question 5
Which of the following elements does not
increase statistical power?
a. Standard deviation
b. mean change
c. Effect size
d. Standard error
e. Significance level
Review Question 7
For your RCT, you want 80% power to detect a
reduction of 10 points or more in the
treatment group relative to placebo. What is
10 in your sample size formula?
a. Standard deviation
b. mean change
c. Effect size
d. Standard error
e. Significance level
Homework
Problem Set 3
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