After Victory: Towards a New Military

Posture in the Persian Gulf

Christopher Preble
Director of Foreign Policy Studies
Cato Institute, Washington, DC
May 2, 2003
TROOP DEPLOYMENTS AND TERRORISM

The stationing of U.S. forces in the holy land of Saudi Arabia has been Osama
bin Laden's principal recruiting device, even more than the other grievances he
cites.
I can't imagine anyone here wanting to . . . be there for another 12 years to
continue helping recruit terrorists.
- Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, March 2, 2003
TROOP DEPLOYMENTS AND TERRORISM

The great probability of further terrorism is an inescapable consequence of

the role we have assigned to ourselves as the principal guarantor of security and
stability in the region.
- Former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia Richard Murphy, June 27, 1996
TROOP DEPLOYMENTS AND TERRORISM

Regardless of the outcome of the Iraqi scenario, the United States will need to
maintain forces in the region.
- Richard D. Sokolsky, Distinguished Research Fellow, Institute for National
Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, 2003
TROOP DEPLOYMENTS AND TERRORISM
An Alternative View
The most important reason to withdraw U.S. troops is to eliminate a source of
antagonism that has fostered the sort of virulent terrorism seen on September
11.
- Doug Bandow, The Cato Institute, March 20, 2002
TROOP DEPLOYMENTS AND TERRORISM
An Alternative View
The United States could substantially reduce the chance of catastrophic terrorist
attacks if it lowered its military profile overseas.
Ivan Eland, The Cato Institute, December 17, 1998

Bringing home the military units in the region would not only eliminate many
costs and risks, it would greatly diminish popular resentment of the presence of
U.S. troops.
Barbara Conry, The Cato Institute, November 10, 1994

A longterm U.S. presence in the Middle East will simply fan the flames of Pan
Arabism and weaken the Americanposition. It will make the United States a
lightning rod for all the rage and frustration of that troubled region.
- Christopher Layne & Ted Galen Carpenter, The Cato Institute, November 9, 1990
U.S. Troop Deployments in the Middle East,
Prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom

Model from CNN, http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2002/iraq/deployment.map/index.html; troop data from

Defense Link, http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/almanac/almanac/people/serve.html as of 12/31/2001.
Cost of U.S. Forces in the Region:
As much as $60 billion per year
Wolfowitz estimated the U.S. cost of Iraqi containment during 12 years of
U.N. sanctions, weapons inspections and continued U.S. air patrols over the
country at slightly over $30 billion. - Washington Post, March 2, 2003

An estimated $30 billion to $60 billion a year has been expended to safeguard
Middle East oil supplies Donald Losman, The Cato Institute, August 1, 2001

[T]he annual expense of maintaining forces directed at protecting Saudi oil

[is] estimated at $50 billion by Georgetown Universitys Earl Ravenal. Cato
Handbook for the 108th Congress, 2003
Where does the U.S. get its oil?
- Consumption by Region of Origin
Other Europe
2.8%
Africa 3.3%
6.1%

South America
8.1%

Middle East
14.0%
North America
65.7%

Data compiled from Energy Information Administration, www.eia.doe.gov, for 2001.

Where does the U.S. get its oil?
- Consumption by Nation of Origin
Kuwait Domestic
1.2% Saudi Arabia
Iraq Mexico
4.1% Canada
Venezuela
Nigeria
Domestic
51.3% Iraq
Angola
Norway
Colombia
United Kingdom
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia Other
8.4%

Data from Energy Information Administration, www.eia.doe.gov, for 2001.

Number of Troops Protecting Oil Interests
4,300 military Kuwait
personnel
1.2%

Iraq
4.1%
13,559 military
personnel

4,802 military
personnel Saudi Arabia
8.4%
Number of Troops Protecting Oil Interests

Venezuela
6.7%

Canada
223 military
personnel
7.1%

Mexico
7.3%
Conclusion
Now that Saddam Hussein is gone, we can remove one of the primary
justifications used by Osama Bin Laden to recruit would-be terrorists the
presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia.
But the Bush administrations wise decision to shift U.S. forces out of the
kingdom should be the first of several steps to substantially reduce the U.S.
presence throughout the region.
U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf are unnecessary. They are costly. And they do
nothing to make the United States safer and more secure.

Thank You,
Christopher Preble
Director of Foreign Policy Studies
The Cato Institute