society is unable to fulfill even its basic necessities of life. In India, the generally accepted definition of poverty emphasises minimum level of living rather than a reasonable level of living. WHY IS POVERTY A BIG CONCERN? VICIOUS CIRCLE OF POVERTY
VICIOUS LOW CIRCLE OF DEMAND POVERTY STUDIES OF POVERTY IN INDIA Ojha’s Estimate of Poverty-
Mr. P.D. Ojha estimated the number of persons below the
poverty line on the basis of an average calorie intake of 2,250 per capita per day. This entailed monthly per capita consumption expenditure of Rs. 15-18 (196061 prices) in urban areas andofRs. 8-11 in rural areas. On this basis, Ojha estimated that 184 million persons in the rural areas (51.8 per cent of total rural population) and 6 million persons in the urban areas (7.6 per cent of urban population) lived below the poverty line. For the country as a whole, 190 million persons (44 per cent of total population) could be classed as poor in 1960-61. Dandekar and Rath's study of Poverty in India
Dr. Y.M. Dandekar and Mr. Nilkantha Rath
estimated the value of the diet with 2,250 calories as the desired minimum level of nutrition. They suggested that whereas the Planning Commission accepts Rs. 20 per capita per month (or Rs. 240 per annum) as the minimum desirable standard, it would not be fair to use this figure for both the urban and the rural areas. Dandekar and Rath, Dandekar and Rath, therefore, suggested somewhat lower minimum for rural population, i.e., Rs. 180 per capita per annum and, a somewhat higher minimum Rs. 270 per capita per annum for the urban population at 1960-61 prices. Dandekar and Rath estimated that in 1968-69 about 40 per cent of the rural population (i.e.166 million) and alittle more than 50 per cent of the urban population (i.e.49 million) lived below the poverty line Minhas' Study of Rural Poor Another estimate made by B.S. Minhas on the basis of NSS data revealed that if one regards the level of per capita annual consumption expenditure of Rs. 240 as the bare minimum, then 50.6 per cent of the population lived below the poverty line in 1967-68. there has been a steady decline in the proportiod of people below the poverty line, Le., from 65 per centjt 1956-57 to 50.6 per cent in 1967-68. In other words, we had around 210 million poor people in rural areas in 1967-68, and the corresponding number in the earlier year varied between 206 and 221 million. Bardhan's Study of Rural Poor-
Dr. P.K. Bardhan questioned the validity of the
GNP deflator used by Dr. B.S. Minhas in his study. Bardhan suggested the use of agricultural labour price' index as a more suitable deflator. His main argument was that the national income deflator covers both the! agricultural and manufactured commodities and as such it is very likely to 'understate the rise in prices paid by the! rural poor because the budget of the poor in the rural areas) includes a much smaller proportion of the manufactures than the national average. Bardhan considered Rs. 15 at 1960-61 prices to be the national minimum as it was conservative approximation to the minimum standard fixed by the Planning Commission's Study. Bardhan's study brought out the conclusion the percentage of rural people below the poverty line as defined above has gone; up from 38 per cent in 1960-61 to 54 per cent in 1968-69.' Estimate of Poverty by the Seventh Finance Commission (1978)
From the data, it was revealed that 277 million
persons lived below the augmented poverty line in 197071. As a percentage of population of the 15 States, the people below the poverty line constituted 52 per cent. Out of this 225 million persons in the rural areas and 52 million persons in the urban areas lived below the poverty line. From the Seventh Finance Commission data, the following distinctive features emerge:
(i) As compared to all the earlier studies, the proportion of population living below augmented poverty line indicates a relatively higher figure of 52 per cent.
(ii) The proportion of persons below the poverty line in
the rural and urban areas is nearly the same. This is also in sharp contrast to the conclusions of earlier studies The World Bank study on Poverty More recent evidence by the World Bank supports the view that the proportion of persons below the poverty line has come down from 52.4 per cent in 1970 to 42.5 per cent in 1983 and further to 39.6 per cent in 1988. Gaurav Datt and Martin Ravallion also estimate that person below the poverty line are 43.9 per cent - 40 per cent in urban and 45 per cent in rural areas. Gaurav Datt and Martin Ravallion Study Gaurav Datt and Martin Ravallion clearly bring out that poverty gap in rural area is 12.7 per cent and in urban areas is 10.94 per cent. Obviously, greater effort is needed to reduce poverty gap by having specific programmes for rural areas to alleviate poverty. 1 P (poverty gap) = Po.G where G = (Z –Y)/ Z where Z represents the poverty line and Y represents the average consumption expenditure of poor in each state. Po expresses the percentage of population below the poverty line to the corresponding total population. Planning Commission Expert Group Report (1993) . The Poverty Line recommended by the Task Force on projection of minimum needs and effective consumption demand, namely a monthly per capita total expenditure of Rs. 49.09 (rural) and Rs. 56.64 (urban) rounded respectively to Rs. 49 and Rs. 57 at all-India level at 1973-74 prices be adopted as the base line. This was anchored in the recommended per capita daily intake of 2,400 calories in rural areas with reference to the consumption pattern as obtained in 1973-74. The Expert group recommended that these norms may be adopted uniformly for all states. Planning Commission Expert Group (1993) estimated that rural poverty ratio has declined from 56.4% in 1973-74 to 39.1% in 1987-88. As against it, there is a relatively smaller decline in urban poverty ratio which has comedown from 49.2% in 1973-74 to 40.1 % in 1987-88. The overall poverty ratio has, therefore, declined from 54.9% in 1973-74 to 39.3% in 1987-88. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF POVERTY AND INEQUALITY OF INCOMES
In a study conducted jointly by the World Bank and
the Institute of Development Studies at Sussex University (England), the extent of inequality was classified into three broad categories: (I) High inequality, (2) Moderate inequality, and (3) Low inequality. For analysing relative inequality the study examined the income shares of the lowest 40 per cent, the middle 40 per cent and the top 20 per cent of the households The degree of inequality was measured on the basis of the share of the lowest 40 per cent of the population as under: Share of lowest 40 per cent of population in national income. I. High inequality: less than 12 per cent. II.Moderate inequality: Between 12 and 17 per cent. III.Low inequality: 17 per cent and above Distribution of Income in Selected Countries COUNTRY LOWEST MIDDLE HIGHEST H/L 20% 60% 20%
US 6.6 50.4 43.0 6.5
INDIA 8.1 45.8 46.1 5.7 PAK 9.5 49.4 41.1 4.3 SWITZER 6.9 52.8 40.3 5.8
U K (1991) 6.6 50.4 6.5
43.0
LANKA (1995) 8.0 49.2 42.8 5.4
THE FIVE YEAR PLANS AND REMOVAL OF POVERTY
The raising of the standard of living of the masses is
one of the objectives of planning in India. The Second Plan talked of creating a 'milieu' for the small man. The Fourth Plan talked of improvement in the condition of the common man and the weaker sections, especially through provision of 'employment and education'. It also emphasised the attainment of a 'national minimum' as an essential pre-requisite to improve the conditions of the 'lower income groups' . Fifth Plan and Poverty- Despite all the pious sentiments for the weaker sections the number of the poor continued to swell in the country. The Garibi Ratao (Remove poverty) slogan raised during the Parliamentary elections of 1971, brought . The Fifth Plan stated: "at present over 220 million are estimated to be living below this level" The clearest expression of the diagnosis of poverty was made in the Fifth Plan Sixth Plan and Poverty- The Sixth Plan (1978-83) stated that "according to a recent estimate using norms of calorie consumption, the percentage of population below the poverty line in 197778 may be projected at 48 per cent in the rural areas and 41 per cent in the urban areas. The total number of the poor, so defined, would be about 290 million. About 160 million of these fall below 75 per cent of the poverty line. Like its predecessor, the Sixth Plan (l980-85) hoped that growth process would bring down the poverty percentage from 48.4 per cent in 1979-80 to 38.9 per cent in 1984 1:l5. Seventh Plan and Poverty- The Seventh Plan reviewing the impact of the poverty programmes mentions: 'There is now evidence to suggest that the process of economic growth and the antipoverty programmes have made a significant dent in the problem of poverty.“ In the light of the information provided by the National Sample Survey (38th Round), "one can conclude that 34 million people crossed the poverty line between 1977-78 and 1984-85. During the Seventh Plan, the planners hope that number of poor persons will fall from 273 million in 1984-85 to 211 million by 1989-90 and in percentage terms from 36.9 per cent to 25.8 per cent by 1989-90. In their over-enthusiasm, the planners project that the percentage of people below the poverty line is expected to decline to 10 per cent by 1994-95 and further to a level of 5 per cent in the year 2000. Ninth Plan and Poverty- The Ninth Five Year Plan used the concept of 'poverty gap' developed by World Bank to measur,e the severity of poverty. the Ninth Plan states: "It will be seen (Refer table 16) that the annual average rate of decline of the poverty ratio during the period 1973-74 to 1993-94 has been 2.05 per cent in both rural and urban areas, and 2.09 per cent for the country as a whole. The poverty gap ratio during this period declined by 3.31 per cent per year in rural areas, 2.71 per cent per year in urban areas and 3.21 per cent per year for the country as a whole. Tenth Plan and Poverty- Tenth Plan accepts that 26 per cent of the population i.e. 260 million persons were below the poverty line in 1999-2000. Out of these 75 percent (195 million) were in the rural areas and 25 per cent (65 million) were in the urban areas. India accounts for 22 per cent of the world's poor. With a programme of generating 50 million employment opportunities during the Tenth Plan accompanied by an overall growth of GDP by 8 per cent per annum. Tenth Plan targets to reduce poverty by about 7 percentage points, from 26.1 per cent in 1999-2000 to 19.3 per cent in 2006-07: However, most of the poor would be concentrated in six states-Bihar, M.P., Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Maharastra, These six states would have 164 million poor (i.e. 75% the total poor) in 2006-07. As against them, Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Goa, Delhi are likely to register negligible level of poverty (2%) by 2006-07. ECONOMIC REFORMS AND REDUCTION OF POVERTY Dr. Gaurav Datt of the World Bank in his article "Has Poverty Declined since Economic Reforms? has drawn the following conclusions:- 1. While there was a marked decline in both rural and urban poverty rates between 1973-74 and 198687, there is no sign of anything comparable thereafter 2. For the rural sector, for the period 1973-74 and 1990- 91, headcount index of poverty declined at the annual rate of 2.7 per cent, the rate of decline since then (i.e. in the post-reform period) is not significantly different from zero. 3. For the urban sector, during 1973-74 and 199091, head count index of poverty declined at the annual average rate of 2.2 per cent, the same trend is continued in the post-reform period (1990-91 to 1996-97) at the annual average rate of 2.2 percent. 4. While the urban sector seems to have continued its march of poverty reduction in the process of growth, rural poverty reduction was choked off by lack of rural growth. Dr. Gaurav Datt has identified stagnation in rural growth as the basic cause of slowdown in poverty reduction. This naturally puts a question mark on the very nature of the reform process in terms of rural welfare. CAUSES OF FAILURE TO REDUCE POVERTY Now the question arises: Why did the plans in India fail to eliminate degradation, not to speak of removing poverty? This was due to the fact that the planners assumed that the growth plus strategy aiming at an increase of national income, supplemented by policies of progressive taxation and public expenditure, would lead to a rise in the level of living of the poor.