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Reliability Calculations
What, Why, When
&
How do we benefit from them?
Who am I?
Harvey Altstadter
34 years experience in Component Engineering and Reliability
Military
Commercial
Commercial Space
Consultant to Industry
631 928-2847
What are Reliability Calculations?
Methodology for analyzing the expected or actual
reliability of a product, process or service, and
identifying actions to reduce failures or mitigate their
effect.
Stress Analysis
Reliability Predictions
FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) or
FMECA (Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis)
Yardstick for comparison of design approaches
Cost-Benefit Trade
Why Do Reliability Calculations?
Make the product more reliable
Selling feature
Reduce returns
Lower costs
Enhance or maintain company reputation
Comparisons with competition
Customer request
Design goal
Hard Requirement
Stress Analysis
Methodology
Use accepted standards
Model failure rates of components
Analyze system
Calculate the system predicted failure rate or MTBF
Evaluate prediction vs target or required MTBF
Evaluate stress or temperature reduction design changes
Evaluate practicality of design change especially when MTBF is self imposed
Reliability Predictions (Continued)
Common Standards
MIL-HDBK-217
Generally associated with military systems
Models are very detailed
Provides for many environments
Provides multiple quality levels
Bellcore (Telcordia)
Telecommunications Industry standard
Seems to have supplanted French CNET and British Telcom standards
Models patterned after MIL-HDBK-217, but simplified
Provides multiple quality levels
Can incorporate current laboratory test data
Can incorporate current field performance data
Other Standards
Auto Industry
Resources
Software packages cover both MIL-HDBK-217 and Bellcore models
RELEX is widely available
Reliability Predictions (Continued)
General approach to Prediction
Model for a single part consists of a number of factors multiplied together
ss = G * Q * S * T
ss = Steady State Failure rate
G = Generic or Base Failure Rate
Q = Quality Factor
S = Stress Factor
T = Temperature Factor
Other factors: First Year Multiplier or Experience Factor
Model for a unit
Consists of the sum of all of the individual part failure rates multiplied by an
Environmental Factor E
Source of Factor Information- varies with method used
Lookup table
Calculation based upon complexity
Reliability Predictions
Process FMEA
Similar to a Design FMEA but is applied to a manufacturing process
or service. The object is to use this methodology to optimize
processes.
FMECA
A FMECA is similar to a FMEA,
Criticality is computed in place of RPN .
FMECAs are used extensively in military, aerospace and medical
equipment fields, for both design and process reliability analysis.
MIL-HDBK-1629 is a widely accepted standard for FMECAs.
When
Stress Analysis
Prior to release of design to production
Prior to implementation of design changes
Reliability predictions should be done at all stages of design
Early design stage- Reliability Prediction may a rough estimate
Late design stage- Reliability Prediction is refined
Fielded system- revised prediction can incorporate field data for future
use
Design FMEA or FMECA
As design matures, impact of failure needs to be addressed
Process FMEA
During process design
Prior to implementing new or updated processes
How do we benefit from them?
No system benefits from a calculation
Calculation without action is window dressing
Contributes to good or bad feelings about system
Could make customer happy ...or not
Calculation after design is complete is a waste of time
Feedback of results into design yields the benefits
Longer predicted life
Fewer field failures
Lower warranty costs
Better customer relations
Famous Flubs
BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit)
FMEA not performed or inadequate
Oscillator Crystal Failure- Open. Oscillator Frequency went up
Train speed increased rapidly
Train overshot last stop
Train rammed barrier at high speed
Very serious accident