Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Political, Economical,
Social and Real Estate
Panorama
Author:
Iancu Guda, CFA, EMBA
Services Director & Chief Economist Coface
AAFBR President
IBR-ISF Trainer
Academic Lecturer
Summary
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 2
1. Political and legislative updates (1)
The Social Democratic Party (PSD) won the presidential elections on 11 December 2016 by a
large margin and it has obtained 47.5% of total seats in Parliament;
PSD formed a parliamentary majority together with its ally ALDE (Alliance of Liberals and
Democrats) that has obtained 6.2% of seats in Parliament;
We expect this parliamentary majority to be stable due to the large number of MPs and due to
the links between the two parties in the previous years;
With some delay, the cabinet backed by the two parties and led by Mr. Sorin Grindeanu was
sworn in on 4 January
Structure of Parliament, by parties
Economical and social implications
Minorities;3,70
standard VAT rate was reduced to 19% from PMP, 5.60% %
20%;
ALDE, 6.20%
excises on fuels were lowered
UDMR, 6.50%
tax on special constructions (1%) was
removed;
Minimum wage increase from 1.250 RON to PSD, 47.50%
Source: http://parlamentare2016.bec.ro,
1. Political and legislative updates (2)
The governments surprising enforcement of an
Emergency Ordinance 13 decriminalizing some
corruption offenses resulted in massive street
protests against the PSD led Government
across the country. As a result, the Emergency
Ordinance had to be repealed and the Justice
Minister resigned;
Romanias Constitutional Court declared that the
law aimed to convert in RON at historical
exchange rate loans denominated in CHF is
unconstitutional;
Emergence Ordinance enacted on 6th of January bring important fiscal changes to companies:
Microenterprise s cap increased from 100K EUR up to 500 K EUR => 94% of the companies affected
Income tax on companies with 1 employee lowered from 2% to 1%;
Companies with turnover between 100K 500 K EUR obliged to pay taxes on income (instead of
gross profit
=> IMPACT: 955 mil RON lower fiscal burden on companies, completely offset by higher overheads due to
minimum wage increase (936 mil RON impact if 25% of the employees are paid at the minimum).
Source: Iancu Guda impact study issued on 9th of January: http://economie.hotnews.ro/stiri-finante_banci-
21520984-impactul-masurilor-fiscale-luate-guvernul-grindeanu-asupra-microintreprinderilor-studiu-
impact.htm
/ 4
Summary
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 5
2. Macroeconomic Trend: GDP Growth (1)
Romania the largest GDP growth in the CEE region for both 2016 and 2017
Baseline scenario for GDP growth during 2017: 3,6% (according to market consensus),
with potential to reach 4% if new fiscal stimulus, recently announced in February 2017, will
be implemented: increase of pensions by another 9% (effective in July, following an
increase by 5.3% in January), lower taxation of pensions (pensions below RON 2000 are
not anymore taxed; health contributions are not anymore paid by pensioners), increase of
wages in the local public administration by 20% starting with 2018
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016(H1)
10%
-10%
0%
-20%
Consumption YoY Import YoY
-30%
Source: NIS, author calculations
/ 7
2. Macroeconomic Trend: increasing fiscal deficit
Procyclical fiscal slippages : 45.00% 2.00%
40.00%
2,61% fiscal deficit during 2016, as 0.00%
35.00%
compared to 2,8% target; 30.00% -2.00%
25.00%
January 2017 started with a public -4.00%
20.00%
budget surplus of 0,4% (bellow 0,6% 15.00% -6.00%
Q2_2009
Q2_2013
Q4_2005
Q2_2006
Q4_2006
Q2_2007
Q4_2007
Q2_2008
Q4_2008
Q4_2009
Q2_2010
Q4_2010
Q2_2011
Q4_2011
Q2_2012
Q4_2012
Q4_2013
Q2_2014
Q4_2014
Q2_2015
Q4_2015
Q2_2016
Q4_2016
capital expenses (public investments
decreased by -30,3%);
Public Revenue % GDP Public Expense % GDP Public Deficit % GDP
Without corrective measures, public
deficit can climb to 3,7% Source: MF, Fiscal Council, author calculations
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
mar. 11
mar. 12
iul.13
iul.14
iul.15
iul.16
ian.13
mar.13
ian.14
mar.14
ian.15
mar.15
ian.16
mar.16
ian.17
mai. 11
sep. 11
nov. 11
mai. 12
sep. 12
nov. 12
mai.13
mai.14
mai.15
mai.16
ian. 11
iul. 11
ian. 12
iul. 12
sep.13
nov.13
sep.14
nov.14
sep.15
nov.15
sep.16
nov.16
-2.00%
-4.00%
-6.00%
Annual Inflation Rate NBR Inflation Target Monetary Policy Rate
/ 9
2. Macroeconomic Trend: Credit Evolution
Increasing loans and savings for households:
Total (balance) loans increasing by 5% during 2016 compared to the previous year, from
107 Bn RON up to 113 Bn RON
Total (balance) deposits increasing by 11% during 2016 compared to the previous year,
from 146 Bn RON up to 163 Bn RON
Deleverage for companies:
Total (balance) loans decreasing by 2% during 2016 compared to the previous year, from
109 Bn RON up to 107 Bn RON
Total (balance) deposits increasing by 4% during 2016 compared to the previous year, from
106 Bn RON up to 110 Bn RON
=> IMPACT: total loans to deposits ratio constant decrease, from 1,2 (11) down to 0,8 (17)
Households Companies
14% 25%
12% Credit YoY %
Credit YoY %
Deposits YoY % 20%
10% Deposits YoY %
8% 15%
6%
10%
4%
2% 5%
0%
0%
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
-2%
-4% -5%
-6%
-10%
Evolution %
INDICATOR Year 1990 Weight 1990 Year 2011 Weight 2011
2011 vs 1990
Age Range K pers. % K pers. %
09 3,503 15.1% 2,099 10.43% -40%
10-19 3,845 16.6% 2,199 10.93% -43%
20-29 3,368 14.5% 2,669 13.27% -21%
30-39 3,428 14.8% 3,062 15.22% -11%
40-49 2,634 11.4% 2,82 14.02% 7%
50-60 2,794 12.0% 3,05 15.16% 9%
60-70 2,201 9.5% 2,036 10.12% -7%
Above 70 1,432 6.2% 2,186 10.86% 53%
TOTAL 23,207 100.0% 20,121 100.0% -7%
Future GDP growth (after 2020) jeopardized by unsustainable fiscal stimulus on the long run.
Structural reforms are critical: from consumption to investment policies, lower bureaucracy,
reduction of the corruption and underground economy, more stable juridical environment,
infrastructure, healthcare and education, improving european funds absorption, increasing
transparency on public expenditures;
Source: http://economie.hotnews.ro/stiri-finante-21667431-livevideo-text-fondul-monetar-
international-prezinta-concluziile-dupa-vizita-romania.htm
/ 13
2. Macroeconomic Trend: Dashboard
Pre-crisis period (2008): Crisis period(09 12): Post-crisis period: 2016-2018:
- Large GDP growth fueled by - FDI and foreign capital - Gradual GDP and - Macroeconomic
consumption, triggering inflation high; rapid withdrawal, causing FDI recovery; equilibrium
- Large external imbalances, due to scarce liquidity, RON - Lower inflationary jeopardized by similar
increasing imports, current account deficit depreciation, blocking pressures with lax pre-crisis procyclical
being financed through volatile FDI credit and real estate monetary policy and fiscal policy;
- Restrictive monetary policy offset by plummeting values stable domestic - Gradual domestic
procyclical fiscal policy; - GDP plummeting without currency; currency depreciation
- Real estate assets on the peak; consumption, causing - Fiscal deficit and due to higher inflation,
- Overall unemployment low without large fiscal deficit; current account fiscal deficit and
considering the emigration effect - NPL large increase; adjustment; external debt cost;
Indicator S 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real GDP [1] 7,9% -6,8% -0,9% 2,3% -0,5% 3,5% 2,9% 3,9% 4,8% 3,7% 3,5%
Real GDP without agriculture [1] 6,3% -6,5% -0,5% 1,2% 2,3% 1,4% 2,8% 4,7% 5,0% 3,7% 3,5%
Monetary Interest Rate (end of year) [2] 10,25% 8,00% 6,25% 6,00% 5,25% 3,75% 2,75% 1,75% 1,75% 1,75% 2,25%
Inflation Rate (Annual CPI) [2] 7,90% 5,60% 6,10% 5,80% 3,30% 4,00% 1,10% -0,60% -1,50% 0,90% 2,90%
Unemployment Total [1] 5,6% 6,5% 7,0% 7,2% 6,8% 7,1% 6,7% 6,8% 6,0% 5,4% 5,1%
Unemployment workforce <25 years [1] 17,6% 20,0% 22,1% 23,9% 22,6% 23,7% 23,7% 23,0% 22,5% 22,0% 21,5%
Exchange Rate (EUR:RON) [1] 3,68 4,23 4,21 4,23 4,45 4,42 4,44 4,45 4,49 4,55 4,60
Fiscal Deficit [3] -5,6% -8,9% -6,6% -5,5% -3,0% -2,2% -1,9% -0,8% -2,6% -3,7% -4,0%
Public Debt % GDP [3] 13,2% 23,2% 29,9% 34,2% 37,3% 37,9% 38,2% 38,7% 39,0% 41,0% 44,0%
Current Account Deficit (% GDP) [2] -11,50% -4,50% -4,60% -4,60% -4,50% -0,80% -0,90% -1,20% -2,40% -3,60% -3,80%
FDI (mil EUR) [2] 9.496 3.490 2.220 1.814 2.139 2.937 3.050 3.500 4.100 4.550 5.010
Non - Performing Loans Rate
[2] 5,8% 7,9% 11,9% 14,3% 18,2% 21,9% 13,9% 12,1% 11,3% 10,8% 9,0%
(overall banking sector)
Real Estate Prices (EUR / sq m, 2 rooms
[4] 2.015 1.304 1.179 1.163 1.128 1.070 1.066 1.107 1.157 1.165 1.190
flat, national average)
Sources:
[1] National Institute of Statistics, http://www.insse.ro/cms/ro/content/comunicate-de-presa-arhiva
[2] National Bank of Romania, http://www.bnr.ro/Interactive-database-1107.aspx
[3] Ministry of Finance, http://www.mfinante.ro/
[4] http://www.imobiliare.ro/indicele-imobiliare-ro/bucuresti
/ 14
Summary
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 15
3. Business Environment
Principal opportunities
Improvement of the payment behavior and financial standing the survivorship bias
Low competition among companies easy to differentiate
Increasing consumption incentive for investments
Low interest rates and good liquidity incentive for risk taking projects
Increasing financing schemes for younger entrepreneurs SRLD & European Funds
Principal challenges
/ 16
3. Business Environment companies dispersion
Source: Coface
ICON Database,
Ministry Finance,
Trade Register,
author calculations
/ 18
3. Business Environment companies dispersion
Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number
Turnover Range (EUR) Companies Companies Companies Companies Companies Companies Companies Companies
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0. No activity 156.547 135.335 168.046 178.204 176.574 177.979 130.822 139.094
1. 0-100 K EUR 371.906 357.549 331.841 301.314 324.495 330.928 329.706 332.097
2. 100K -500 K EUR 89.428 73.521 73.619 72.491 75.472 73.839 78.940 77.480
3. 500K-1.000 K EUR 19.254 15.325 15.618 15.926 16.538 16.263 17.512 16.776
4. 1-5 MIL EUR 20.292 15.618 15.930 16.793 17.151 17.222 18.385 18.310
5. 5-10 MIL EUR 3.109 2.377 2.522 2.635 2.834 2.632 2.762 3.048
6. 10-50 MIL EUR 2.588 2.007 2.047 2.199 2.324 2.311 2.465 2.567
7. 50-100 MIL EUR 298 210 233 235 242 231 258 288
8. Above 100 MIL EUR 264 216 216 235 247 235 257 260
Total 663.686 602.158 610.072 590.032 615.877 621.640 581.107 589.920
Turnover (Bn RON) Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 Year 2013 Year 2014 Year 2015
0. No activity - - - - - - - -
1. 0-100 K EUR 42 37 34 33 36 35 36 37
2. 100K -500 K EUR 69 69 69 72 75 73 80 77
3. 500K-1.000 K EUR 59 45 46 50 52 50 55 53
4. 1-5 MIL EUR 157 138 142 156 161 159 165 138
5. 5-10 MIL EUR 89 70 75 82 88 81 86 94
6. 10-50 MIL EUR 147 167 170 193 207 204 219 240
7. 50-100 MIL EUR 85 62 68 73 74 70 86 96
8. Above 100 MIL EUR 288 275 308 345 370 364 393 428
Total 936 864 912 1.004 1.062 1.037 1.119 1.163
Value weight of
companies with 65% 67% 68% 69% 70% 69% 70% 74%
turnover > 5 miL EUR
Number) weight of
companies with 0,9% 0,8% 0,8% 0,9% 0,9% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0%
turnover > 5 miL EUR
Turnover of top 1000 Top 1000 companies Pareto Structure Romania vs CEE
Year
companies (Bn RON) turnover % in total
1.2
2008 323 35%
2009 295 34% 1
2010 355 39%
2011 438 44% 0.8
2012 478 Romania
45%
2013 501 0.6 Hungary
48%
2014 532 48% Poland
0.4
2015 567 49% Czech
Category 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Suspension 12.019 29.456 24.398 21.221 21.086 24.078 15.788 17.698 15.600
Dissolution 3.762 18.766 7.508 4.001 22.500 23.208 18.336 27.967 29.500
Cancelations 17.676 43.615 58.726 56.245 71.746 80.786 76.483 94.374 115.000
Insolvencies 14.483 18.421 19.650 21.499 25.842 27.924 20.170 10.170 8.053
Interruptions 47.940 110.258 110.282 102.966 141.174 155.996 130.823 150.209 168.153
New Registrations 144.239 116.022 119.048 130.162 125.603 124.816 101.627 113.167 106.000
SRL Registrations 100.661 56.698 48.102 62.735 61.542 60.292 56.381 64.417 74.000
Ratio OUT : IN 0,5 1,9 2,3 1,6 2,3 2,6 2,3 2,3 2,3
180,000 3.0
160,000
2.5
140,000
120,000 2.0
100,000
1.5
80,000
60,000 1.0
40,000
0.5
20,000
0 -
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
/ 21
3. Business Environment maturity and survivorship
Romania compared to CEE: Insolvencies in CEE
Immature business environment Insolvencies to
Companies :
Country 1.000 active
1.000 inhabitants
lower survivorship rate of the start-ups companies
Romania 43 23
More insolvent companies and less active firms
Serbia 41 17
Ungaria 24 57
Survivorship Rate of new start-ups in Romania
Lituania 17 34
Setup Year Active Non-Active Active % Non-Active % Total Croatia 10 62
2005 37.328 53.289 41% 59% 90.617 Cehia 9 137
2006 40.020 51.032 44% 56% 91.052 Slovenia 6 99
2007 48.624 51.396 49% 51% 100.020 Letonia 4 111
2008 51.069 49.592 51% 49% 100.661 Bulgaria 2 56
2009 33.422 23.276 59% 41% 56.698 Slovacia 1 100
2010 34.714 13.388 72% 28% 48.102 Estonia 1 128
Total 245.177 241.973 50% 50% 487.150 Polonia 0 48
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Indicator (mil RON) Year 2016 Year 2015 Year 2014 Year 2013
Total insolvencies 8.053 10.110 20.170 27.924
with financial statements 4.429 5.456 10.038 13.816
Total Debt 18.006 21.213 23.426 33.441
Total Tangible Assets 9.502 6.870 10.247 18.587
Debt above tangible assets 8.504 14.343 13.179 14.854
Financial loss / company 1,9 2,6 1,3 1,1
Number of employees 69.886 81.577 82.273 92.983
Avg Employees / company 16 15 8 7
800 757
25000
700 617
20000 569 577
600
482 485
500
15000
400 333
10000 300
5000
200
100
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of Insolvencies Insolvency Trend (10 years average)
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 24
4. Constructions sector (1) 0.0
2014M01
2014M03
2014M05
2014M07
2014M09
2014M11
2015M01
2015M03
2015M05
2015M07
2015M09
2015M11
2016M01
2016M03
2016M05
2016M07
2016M09
2016M11
2017M01
Construction confidence sluggish -5.0
70,000
40%
60,000
30%
B-IF
50,000
Centru
20%
40,000 N-V
V
10%
30,000 S-V
S
0%
20,000 S-E
N-E
10,000 -10%
-
-20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0% 0%
0%
-10% -10%
-10%
-20% -20%
-20% -10%
-10%
-30% -20%
Sursa: INSSE /
4. Constructions sector (3)
13,5% of total banking loans are granted to companies from the construction
sector, as compared to the peak recorded in 2009 (17,7%);
5,8% construction weight in GDP formation, 2,4 times less compared to the
banking loans weight;
29,5% NPL (non-performing loans) rate reported by the banking sector for the
debtor companies belonging to the construction sector;
Construction sector weight in GDP and Non-Performing Loans (dec. 2016)
banking sector loans
20.0% 0.35
18.0%
0.3
16.0%
14.0% 0.25
12.0%
0.2
10.0%
8.0% 0.15
6.0%
0.1
4.0%
2.0% 0.05
0.0%
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Agriculture Industry Retail Services & Constructions
Utilities and Real
Weight in total banking loans Weight in GDP Estate
Indicator Anul 2008 Anul 2009 Anul 2010 Anul 2011 Anul 2012 Anul 2013 Anul 2014 Anul 2015
Fixed Assets % 65% 64% 58% 55% 55% 54% 53% 52%
DSO (days) 115 135 183 194 208 215 210 185
Debt Ratio to total Assets 73% 68% 78% 79% 82% 86% 86% 86%
EAT (Earnings After Tax) % 8% 2% -4% -4% -4% -3% -1% 2%
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 29
5. FMCG - Market Evolution (1)
0.0
2015M05
2017M01
2014M01
2014M03
2014M05
2014M07
2014M09
2014M11
2015M01
2015M03
2015M07
2015M09
2015M11
2016M01
2016M03
2016M05
2016M07
2016M09
2016M11
Constant growth of consumer -5.0
140
120
100
80
60
2014_Mai
2015_Mai
2016_Mai
2014_Mar
2015_Mar
2016_Mar
2016_Jan
2014_Iul
2015_Iul
2016_Iul
2014_Ian
2014_Feb
2014_Iun
2015_Ian
2014_Apr
2015_Feb
2015_Iun
2016_Feb
2016_Iun
2017_Ian
2014_Aug
2014_Sep
2014_Nov
2014_Dec
2015_Apr
2015_Nov
2015_Dec
2016_Apr
2016_Nov
2016_Dec
2014_Oct
2015_Aug
2015_Sep
2015_Oct
2016_Aug
2016_Sep
2016_Oct
Food, beverages and tobacco Non-Food Products Automotive fuel
Category
Year 2015 Year 2014 Year 2013 Year 2012 Year 2011 Year 2010 Year 2009 Year 2008
Turnover (EUR)
0. Non-operational 1.968 1.987 2.639 2.543 2.676 2.258 1.867 2.443
1. EUR 0 - 100,000 2.723 2.914 2.964 2.987 2.691 2.904 3.173 3.106
2. EUR 100,000-500,000 1.192 1.307 1.243 1.335 1.435 1.495 1.442 1.581
3. EUR 500,000 - 1,000,000 484 518 523 588 550 562 534 581
4. EUR 1-5 MIL 818 850 810 834 879 862 880 42.826
5. EUR 5-10 MIL 193 163 175 210 200 201 191 217
6. EUR 10-50 MIL 169 155 180 188 181 165 182 215
7. EUR 50-100 MIL 17 15 14 12 12 9 11 13
8. MORE THAN EUR 100 MIL 11 9 6 6 7 8 11 10
TOTAL Number 7.575 7.918 8.554 8.703 8.631 8.464 8.291 9.206
Number evolution -4% -7% -2% 1% 2% 2% -10%
Total Turnover (mil RON) 61.168 58.118 51.621 54.666 58.234 54.516 55.881 48.364
Turnover Evolution 5% 13% -6% -6% 7% -2% 16%
NACE Net Result Evolution - Wholesale of ... Year 2015 Year 2014 Year 2013 Year 2012
4631 fruit and vegetables 1.74% -0.51% -1.90% -0.01%
4632 meat and meat products 1.52% -0.47% -0.04% 0.03%
4633 dairy products, eggs, oils 2.52% 0.66% 0.84% -0.34%
4634 beverages 1.33% 0.44% -3% -0.76%
4635 tobacco products 3.65% 3.05% 3.10% 0.47%
4636 sugar, chocolate and sugar confectionery 1.45% 6.23% -1.57% 0.38%
4637 Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices 1.56% 1.67% 1.54% 1.10%
4638 of other food, including fish, crustaceans and mollusks 2.77% 2.16% 2.71% 0.15%
4639 Non-specialized wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco 1.61% 0.74% 1.13% -1.52%
FMCG consolidated level 2.16% 1.36% 0.73% 0.71%
NACE CAPEX to Fixed Assets - Wholesale of ... Year 2015 Year 2014 Year 2013 Year 2012
4631 fruit and vegetables -1% 14% 21% 29%
4632 meat and meat products -4% 21% 24% 21%
4633 dairy products, eggs, oils 0% 7% 4% 86%
4634 beverages -2% 83% 10% 19%
4635 tobacco products 0% 2% 29% 11%
4636 sugar, chocolate and sugar confectionery -10% 0% 1% 11%
4637 Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices 10% 16% 21% 30%
4638 of other food, including fish, crustaceans and mollusks -3% 6% 12% 14%
4639 Non-specialized wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco -2% 8% 4% 15%
FMCG consolidated level -1% 12% 11% 21%
Source: MF, Trade Register, author calculations /
Summary
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 34
6. Real Estate First House program
First House program in 2017
2,5 Bn RON state guarantees + 175 mil RON unused from 2016;
57K EUR cap for old buildings (40% state guarantee) and 66K EUR for new buildings (50% state
guarantee);
Interest and upfront payment (5%) remain the same, excepting ING Bank increasing the upfront
payment up to 10%
Aprox 200.000 new loans granted between 2009-2016, forecast for +15% during 2017
IMPACT: old buildings prices expected to reduce by -5%
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Surface (1000 sqm) 110 209 729 1.063 1.273 1.273 1.273 1.323 1.323 1.553 1.768
First two digits growth (13%) of office spaces stock values Office spaces stock evolution
Year Delivered Stock Delivered / Stock
during 2016 since 2010, expected to escalate up to 18% 1.000 1.000
1994
during 2017 1995 2.800 3.800 280%
1996 3.200 7.000 84%
1997 38.500 45.500 550%
1998 22.000 67.500 48%
1999 42.000 109.500 62%
2000 16.300 125.800 15%
Vacancy Rate 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 63.000 188.800 50%
Bucharest (RO) 17,00 19,00 18,00 20,00 14,00 13,50 13,50 12,50 2002 42.000 230.800 22%
Budapest (HU) 16,00 17,00 15,50 17,00 16,00 16,00 16,50 16,00 2003 48.600 279.400 21%
2004 49.300 328.700 18%
Warsaw (PL) 8,00 7,00 6,00 9,00 11,00 12,00 12,50 12,00
2005 128.800 457.500 39%
Sofia (BG) 25,00 25,00 23,00 22,00 19,50 19,00 19,00 18,00 2006 179.000 636.500 39%
Average 22,00 17,00 15,63 17,00 15,13 15,13 15,38 14,63 2007 293.500 930.000 46%
2008 370.000 1.300.000 40%
Rent Index 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 340.000 1.640.000 26%
Bucharest (RO) -13,79 -10,00 2,22 -4,35 2,27 2,22 0,87 1,29 2010 140.000 1.780.000 9%
Budapest (HU) -7,55 -2,04 -0,83 -1,26 -2,13 -0,87 -3,51 0,45 2011 106.000 1.886.000 6%
Warsaw (PL) -21,21 -3,85 4,00 3,85 -3,70 3,08 0,75 1,11 2012 92.600 1.978.600 5%
Sofia (BG) -11,32 -10,64 -6,67 -6,12 4,35 -1,04 1,58 -0,52 2013 119.000 2.097.600 6%
Average -13,913 -6,5657 -0,1081 -1,6234 -0,22 0,99 0,99 0,99 2014 140.000 2.237.600 7%
2015 70.500 2.308.100 3%
Source: Real Estate Asset Valuation companies 2016 302.000 2.610.100 / 13%
2017* 465.000 3.075.100 18%
6. Real Estate FMCG and modern trade trends in 2017
Roland Berger Estimates
19 Bn EUR total FMCG market
+10% in 2016 followed by +5% for 2017
Modern trade to reach 60% of total market weight
Increasing concentration in top players, top 8 companies reaching a consolidated market share of
50%, as compared to only 20% in 2008
Modern trade has doubled in the last 8 years, but still under the penetration reported by EU
countries
Source: http://modernbuyer.ro/roland-berger-5-cresterea-pietei-de-retail-in-2017/
/
6. Real Estate modern retail new projects in 2017 - 2018
[1] Shopping City Sibiu (NEPI)
Extension one additional level
+ 50 stores, food court and entertainment
+ 11.000 sqm of space to be renovated / extended
Final: 90.000 sqm & 2.500 parking places - the largest
commercial center in Romania &
Source: https://www.imobiliare.ro /
6. Real Estate Brasov
[4] Cosmopolit Magnolia
Location: Str. Crisului, Nr 18A, zona Racadau
Apartments: 1,2,3,4 rooms
Delivery: December 2018
Source: https://www.imobiliare.ro /
6. Real Estate Brasov
[7] Safety Residence
Location: Str. George Calinescu , nr 2-4, zona Tractorul
Surfaces 30 84 sqm
Apartments: 1,2,3 rooms
Status (march 2017): building block 7
Delivery: Final July 2018
Source: https://www.imobiliare.ro /
6. Real Estate Brasov
[10] Safety Village
Location: #NA (10 minutes by car)
Surfaces 99 212 sqm
Villas: 65 houses
Status: spring 2017 first 5 villas
Source: https://www.imobiliare.ro /
6. Real Estate Brasov
[13] Imperial Residence
Location: Str. Stefan Baciu, zona 13 Decembrie
Surfaces 99 212 sqm
Apartments: 6 blocks, 1-3 rooms
Status: 2 blocks available
Delivery Final : 2018
Source: https://www.imobiliare.ro /
Summary
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 48
7. E-commerce (1)
Date
SITUATIA INSOLVENTELOR IN ROMANIA 50