National Climate Change Security

And
Alex Sombath, Kolbie Swensen, Keira Solt, Kellin Thorne, Carlos
Mayorga, Victoria Alvarez, Quinn Ayers and Richard Hall
Main idea(s)
How does anthropogenic climate change affect the national security of the world?

How does climate change affect the national security?

Look for oceans, landscapes, natural disasters etc. ?

EXAMPLE: Where is the military right now? They are in the Gulf of Mexico due to the
earthquake.

Forms of national security; military, president, socio economic issues, population,

anything with geopolitics.

Why do things with geopolitics work the way they do?

Introduction:
Understanding National Security & Climate Change

- National security is a concept that a government, along with its

parliaments, should protect the state and its citizens against all kind of
"national" crises through a variety of power projections, such as political
power, diplomacy, economic power, military might, and so on.

- Climate change is a change in global or regional climate patterns, in

particular a change apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards
and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide
produced by the use of fossil fuels.
Introduction: Relations
- These two ideas intertwine with each other due to the fact that
Climate change presents a serious threat to the security and
prosperity of the United States and other countries.

- The National Security sees it as a threat due to the science around

climate security is definitive enough for action: the military knows
that you cannot have 100% certainty before acting.

- Without having 100% certainty it is hard for them to act upon any
type of climate changes to avoid them at times. Creates a very
difficult void between the two.
 Geopolitics and Global Warming (victoria)
The slow progress of the climate change negotiations are
due not just to the politics of the issue itself, but to the
absence of a new political bargain on material power
structures, normative beliefs, and the management of the
order amongst the great powers. (Terahalle, 2013)
 Policies (victoria)

Despite the achievements of the 2012 Doha Climate Change Conference, the
climate negotiations are not on course to limit warming to 2 C, and thereby avoid
dangerous climate change. Several factors have been invoked to account for
such slow progress: notably, the nature of the climate change problem itself, the
institutional structure of the climate regime, and lack of political will among key
players. (Terahalle, 2013)
Europe adapts to climate change
The UN had to come up with some adaptations strategies because of climate.
...a general plan of action for addressing the impacts of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes. It will include a mix of policies and
measures with the overarching objective of reducing the countrys
vulnerability. Depending on the circumstances, the strategy can be
comprehensive at a national level, addressing adaptation across sectors,
regions and vulnerable populations, or it can be more limited, focusing on just
one or two sectors or regions (Niang-Diop and Bosch, 2005, 186).
How Climate Change is affecting Syria
Higher global temperatures and reduced rainfall will result in more and extreme
droughts.
As the Syrian-Civil war developed, people intentionally attack water systems such
as dams because of their strategic value. In 2012, a major pipeline delivering
water to the city of Aleppo was badly damaged and about three million people was
suffering shortages of drinking water.
Political unrest and economic dislocations, the lack of international agreements
over shared water resources( Jordan/Syria with the Yarmouk River and
Turkey/Syria with the Euphrates River), and poor water management.

(Top) Shows a drop in rainfall in the 1971 - 2010 period. (Bottom) The red and orange highlight the
areas around the Mediterranean that experienced significantly drier winters during 1971 - 2010 than
the comparison period of 1902 - 2010.
 Mitigation
When some kind of political stability returns, rebuild
sustainable groundwater management, more modern
irrigation technologies, economic regulatory. Pretty
much rebuild the country.
Negotiation of international agreements on use of the
major transnational rivers and discussions about
proposals for new dam and irrigation projects on the
Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.
(Recep Tayyip Erdoan and
Bashar Al Assad)
The Evolution of Natural and Social Sciences and Climate
Change
Its hard enough getting various groups and cultures to come together and work with each other, let alone the
scientific disciplines. The first official movement goes back to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program or
IGBP (Mooney, Duraiappah, and Larigauderie, 2013). The biggest issue amongst the respective disciplines is that
no single scientific group should become overly dominant. This was especially made so for the physical,
geological, and meteorological sciences since they all focus around supporting life on Earth. Along with that
there is great stress to not neglect the social sciences in the matter because half of solving the problem is how
people react to the situation (Mooney, Duraiappah, and Larigauderie, 2013). Social sciences were determined to
focus on two factors of global change; land use and industrial metabolism. Meaning how much land are we using
and how much we use our natural resources. Presumably with a rise in population and a rise in technology, we will
be using more resources in order to accommodate society. Eventually the World Climate Impact Program (WCIP)
was created and this program is summed us as a way to understand the relationship between climate change and
human activities. This program helps answer the question of an integration of climatic, ecological and socio-
economic factors entering into complex problems of vital importance to society, such as availability of water,
food, and energy (Mooney, Duraiappah, and Larigauderie, 2013).
Europe adapts to climate change
The country selection was limited to European countries with relative high
adaptive capacity (Haddad, 2005), which had developed national adaptation
policy or were in the process of doing so (Massey and Bergsma, 2008).
In addition for them to choose a country they had to have different types of
climate impacts
There could've been more countries that could've helped out in the research
like Romania and Hungary but they didn't have the necessary information.
Which could just mean they weren't a reliable source or not the type of
climate impact that they were looking for.
The Evolution of Natural and Social Sciences and Climate
Change
The study of Biodiversity relative to the earths systems was the best thing to happen for the social sciences. By
introducing Biodiversity as an official study in 1980s, a door was opened for social sciences to investigate what is
happening to our earth. There is even a plan called DIVERSITAS that is supposed to determine what changes in
biodiversity can be detrimental to us and how we can mitigate against it (Mooney, Duraiappah, Larigauderie,
2013). Each day is a step closer to complete integration of natural sciences and social sciences. I think we are
incredibly lucky to have such compromising scientific groups that can come together and look at the big picture
instead of focusing on single tasks. Now we have the Resilience Alliance (est. 1999) that holds a network of
scientists and institutions that observe and study the hierarchies and cyclic properties of both ecosystems and
social-ecological systems and their adaptive nature (Mooney, Duraiappah, Larigauderie, 2013). They wish to
mitigate and avoid systems going into unfit stages for society. This may not completely solve climate change in
one fell swoop, but its a great step forward that can be continually improved upon. It just goes to show that
indeed some groups can actually com together and work towards a common goal without complete upset.
Climate Change and World Food Security
Schneider (1995, this volume) reviews the current estimate of climate change: the canonical range
of global temperature increases of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius with a doubling of greenhouse gas
concentrations. This could occur by the end of the next century, in the absence of any efforts to
reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (Houghton et al. 1990, 1992, 1995). Regional projections
are highly uncertain, but suggest that the largest changes in temperature will be more poleward
latitudes and delayed warming in the Southern Hemisphere due to the thermal capacity of the
ocean. Potential changes in precipitation, the key factor affecting agriculture for many vulnerable
populations is more difficult to estimate. The IPCC is now working on the second full assessment,
including projections of climate change, potential impacts, and effective response strategies.
Estimating climate change and its impacts, however, is still an uncertain science.
 Climate Change and World Food Security
The goals for a food secure world encompass: the end of famine, chronic and
seasonal undernutrition rates of 1 per cent (100 million people); virtually no
deficiencies in micronutrients (e.g. iodine and vitamin A); and control of diseases
such as malaria, diarrhea and anemia that affect nutritional status (Chen and
Kates 1994, 1995). The idea is to have a normative scenario of a food secure
future. Policies to achieve a food secure world in the next few decades include the
suit of sustainable agricultural development, implementation of a social norm of
food as a human right, and effective safety nets for famine prevention, emergency
assistance, income support, and groups with special needs.
Germany Changes
Germany has become a key player in
international climate politics in recent
years, yet it is falling behind its
domestic carbon targets.
Germany has a long-term goal to
reduce emissions by 80-95% below
1990 levels in 2050. Last year it set
interim emissions targets for
individual sectors, including
agriculture, industry and transport.
Germany Changes
The largest barrier to German emissions targets is a
continued reliance on coal. Germanys coal use
roughly halved between 1965 and 2000, but has
remained relatively flat since then.
Germany has a target to reduce transport emissions
42% by 2030, but emissions have barely changed
since 1990.
While the election outcome is unlikely to alter its
global positioning, future government policy will likely
affect its national climate progress.
Philippine Typhoon 2013 (Haiyan)
On november 8th, 2013 a super typhoon hit the Philippines. There is an ongoing debate about whether
climate change will both increase the number of tropical cyclones as well as their intensity. What we do
know is that the water in the Pacific has been warmer than average and that warmer water is an
important part of cyclone intensity. After the typhoon, reports of the death toll were as high as 10,000, with
over 600,000 people displaced and facing a shortage of food and water. Beyond the evident threats of the
typhoon itself, there are additional threats that we might not realize from a onlooking perspective. Natural
disasters can act as a clear threat to national security especially when the government is unable to
respond effectively. Thats because a government failure can create the opportunity for other security
threats to develop, ranging from crime and corruption to insurgency or terrorism. There are reports of
massive looting after the storm passed over, and unverified reports that the Filipino military has engaged
and killed a group from the New Peoples Army, a communist rebel group in Leyte, as they tried to attack
a government relief convoy.
Typhoon continued
These are precisely the reasons that the U.S. Department of Defense has labeled climate change as an
accelerant of instability in the 2010 QDR. About 90 U.S. Marines and sailors were deployed from
Okinawa to the Philippines and were on the ground providing support. Prime Minister Cameron ordered
the Royal Navys HMS Daring to the region as well. This disaster response mission is part of the
Department of Defenses growing humanitarian response mission to help affected regions. Simply put, if
the U.S. military did not provide fast-acting logistical support to relief missions like this, there are no other
entities that can provide the heavy lift or logistical expertise necessary to get large quantities of aid to a
region in time. With the instability that the Philippines were in after the typhoon, they were faced with many
threats to their national security. The U.S. sent some of our troops to the scene in order to provide relief,
this however left our country even more susceptible to dangers. MITIGATION- Efforts to reduce risk
should include military preparations for response, readiness that increases the capacity to prevent such
harm, as well as greenhouse gas mitigation to reduce the chance of future storms.
Conclusion
National Security and Climate Change are interrelated because global warming is
becoming an issue for people all over the world and is something that nations are
trying to fix.

Its difficult to find any one reason as to why climate change occurs so this makes
it difficult for us to fix.
References and Citations
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Dai, A. (2010). Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:
Climate Change. 2(1), 45-65. Doi:10.1002/wcc.81
Holland, A. (2013, November 13). National Security, Climate, and the Philippine Typhoon. Retrieved November 15, 2017, from
https://www.americansecurityproject.org/climate_security_-and_the_typhoon/
Terahelle, M. (2013, September 06). Great-power politics, order transition, and climate governance: insights from international relations theory. Retrieved November 16,
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Biesbroek, G. R., Swart, R. J., Carter, T. R., Cowan, C., Henrichs, T., Mela, H., . . . Rey, D. (2010). Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation
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