LSSG Green Belt

Training
Measure: Finding and Measuring
Potential Root Causes
 DMAIC Six Sigma - Measure

Objectives
Identify Inputs and Outputs
Determine key inputs and outputs
Control
for the process and measures to be
Improve analyzed
Measure Process Capability
Collect data and compare customer
Analyze requirements to process variation
Define Revise Charter
Measure Validate project opportunity and
perform charter revision
Agenda for Measure

1. Types of Measures/Setting Targets

2. Data Collection and Prioritization, MSA
3. SPC, Control Charts
4. Process Capability
 Measures
Purpose of measurement: Objective Lose 13 Pounds in
3 months
Performance of a process
vs. Expectations
Secondary Lose 1 Pound per
Objective week

Driver(s) Calories consumed

Select Measures less Calories
SMART Objectives burned
Clear operational
definitions Critical Success Run 4 miles/day
E.g. Losing Weight Factors (Drivers and consume less
than 1500
calories/day
Must measure both the result (Y) and the
drivers (Xs). Measure daily to determine if
CSFs are met, and to make adjustments to
plan.
 LSS Measurement
Measurement Plan
Data Operational Definitions and Procedures
What data How What By who? Where What sample
type? measured? conditions? measured? size?

How to ensure consistency of What is the data collection plan?

measurement?

Measurement vs. Control

Causes/ Measurement Control

Effects System System
Historical data Current data

Measurement is not control! So, what is it?

Setting Targets

Set Targets
Objective/Meaningful
Management-employees collaboration
Team goal compatible with value stream objective

Balanced Score Card

Perspectives

Financial

Customer

Internal Process

Learning & Growth

Agenda for Measure

1. Types of Measures/Setting Targets

2. Data Collection and Prioritization, MSA
3. SPC, Control Charts
4. Process Capability
Data Collection and Prioritization

Some Collection Tools

Customer Survey
Work / Time Measurement
Check Sheet

Some Prioritization Tools

Pareto Analysis
Fishbone Diagram
Cause and Effect Matrix
Work Measurement
Goals of Work Measurement
Scheduling work and allocating capacity

Motivating workers / measuring performance

Evaluating processes / creating a baseline

Determining requirements of new processes

 Time Studies

Typically using stop watches

For infrequent information - estimates OK
Measure person, machine, and delays independently
Medium Duration - not too short; not too long
Eliminate Bias - Compute Standard times from
observed times
 Time Study: Calculations

Step 1: Collect Data (Observed Time)

Step 2: Calculate Normal Time from Observed Time,
where:
Normal Time Observed Time per unit * (1 Performanc e Rating)
use when operator works faster then normal

Step 3: Calculate Standard Time from Normal Time,

where:
Standard Time Normal Time per unit * (1 Allowances )
Time Study: Numerical Example

A worker was observed and produced 40

units of product in 8 hours. The supervisor
estimated the employee worked about 15
percent faster than normal during the
observation. Allowances for the job
represent 20 percent of the normal time for
breaks, lunch and 5S.

Determine the Standard Time per unit.

 Data Analysis Tools

Scatter Diagram Run Chart

12 0.58
10

Diameter
0.54
Defects

8
6
0.5
4
2 0.46
0
0 10 20 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hours of Training Time
Can be used to illustrate the relationships Can be used to identify when equipment or
between factors such us quality and training processes means are drifting away from specs

Histogram Control Chart

500
Frequency

UCL
480

460

440 LCL
420

Data Ranges 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
400

Can be used to display the shape of variation Use to identify if the process is predictable (in
in a set of data control)
Cause and Effect Diagram

Machine Man

Environmental Effect

Method Material
Pareto Charts
Root Cause Analysis

80% of the
problems may be
attributed to 20%
of the causes

Design Assy. Purch. Training Other

Instruct.
Continuous Improvement Process

Orlando Remanufacturing
And
Distribution Center
 Phase 1: Internal Kickbacks
Equipment To Be Tear Down Remanu- Final
Reassembly
Remanufactured And Wash facture Clean-up

Unit
To Customer Not OK
QA

Five Most Common Reasons For Returns Impact of Reasons for Returns from QA -
From QA Weighted Average

Leaks Dirt/Rust Stainless Missing/ Defective Poor

Missing/ Dirt/Rust Defective Leaks Poor Steel Wrong Part Part Insulation
Wrong Part Insulation
Part Weighted Avg. = % Occurring X Defect Cost (0-10,
Based on Time to Repair)
Why Dirt? (Fishbone)
Environment Machinery Materials
Cleansing Compounds
Dust/Humidity Tools for $$

Space Limitations
Larger Wire Brushes
Poor Lighting
Dirt
Rework Attention to Detail
Lack of Communication
QA to IT
Training
Rinse

Measurement Methods Man

Environment Materials Machines

Dust/Humidity Cleansing Compounds Best Tools for $$?
Poor Lighting
Space Limitations Need Larger WireBrushes

Methods People Measurement

Reworking Steel after Need More Training QA Manager Fixes
Valves are Installed Some Things
Need to Rinse Parts off More Attention to Detail
Without Informing
after Sandblasting Do it Right First Time
the Technicians
 Why Leaks? (Fishbone)
Environment Machinery Materials
O Rings Old
Reengineer Rims
Poor Lighting

High Temperature Bad Tubing

Leaks
No Leak Testing Prior to QA Quality Check Use Wrong Clamps
Mishandle Units

Identify Most Occurrences Dont Crimp Properly

Forget to Connect

Measurement Methods Man

Environment Materials Machines

High Temperatures Bad Tubing Need Rims That Make it
Poor Lighting O Rings Too Old (Dry) Easier to Install Tubing

Methods Measurement
People
Check Units for Ways No Testing for Leaks
They Could Leak Use Wrong Clamps
Dont Crimp Properly Prior to QA
Does Testing Create
Leaks? Forget to Connect Which Mfr./Model Leak
the Most?
 Variation Analysis
Most variation without special causes will be normally distributed

Variation is typically Output

classifiable into the 6 Ms

Variation is additive
Variation in the process inputs will generate more variation in the
process output

Variation is Present in All Processes!

Measurement System Analysis (MSA)

Goal - To identify if the measurement system can distinguish

between product variation and measurement variation

observed
2
product
2
gage
2

Some key dimensions

Accuracy
Precision
Bias

Tools: Gage R&R, DOE, Control Charts

Agenda for Measure

1. Types of Measures/Setting Targets

2. Data Collection and Prioritization, MSA
3. SPC, Control Charts
4. Process Capability
 SPC vs. Acceptance Sampling
Acceptance Sampling: Used to inspect a batch prior to, or after the
process Send to
Accept
Customer
Take Meet
Receive
Lot Sample Criteria?
Rework
Reject
/Waste
Statistical Process Control (SPC): Used to determine if process is
within process control limits during the process and to take
corrective action when out of control
500

480
UCL

460

440
LCL
420

400
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 Statistical Process Control
Process in Statistical Control
Statistical process control is UCL
the use of statistics to
measure the quality of an
ongoing process
LCL
Process not in Statistical Control
A Process UCL
is in control when all
points are inside the
control limits
LCL

A Process Process not in Statistical Control

UCL
is not in control when one
or more points is/are
outside the control limits
LCL

Special Causes
 When to Investigate
In Control
UCL
Even if in control the process should
be investigated if any non random
patterns are observed OVER TIME
LCL

Trend - Constant Increase/Decrease 1 2 3 4 5 6

UCL

Close to Control Limit

UCL

LCL
1 2 3 4 5 6
LCL
1 2 3 4 5
Cycles
UC
L Consecutive Points Below/Above Mean
UCL

LCL
5 10 15 20 LCL
1 2 3 4 5 6
 Control Chart Development Steps
2 Collect Data
1 Identify Measurement Sample
Sample Size Defective p
1 100 4 0.04
2 100 3 0.03
3 100 5 0.05
4 100 6 0.06
5 100 2 0.02
6 100 1 0.01

INPUTS 7
8
100
100
6
7
0.06
0.07
9 100 3 0.03
OUTPUT 10
11
100
100
8
1
0.08
0.01
Xs 12 100 2 0.02

Ys 13
14
100
100
1
9
0.01
0.09
15 100 1 0.01
Total 1500 59

4 Improve Process
3 Determine Control Limits
Eliminate Reduce
Special Common
Start Causes
0.1
Cause
0.08
Variation Improve
0.06
Average
0.04

0.02

0
Defects
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

A B C D
Frequently Used Control Charts

Attribute: Go/no-go Information, sample size of 50 to 100

Defectives
p-chart, np-chart
Defects
c-chart, u-chart

Variable: Continuous data, usually measured by the mean

and standard deviation, sample size of 2 to 10
X-charts for individuals (X-MR or I-MR)
X-bar and R-charts
X-bar and s-charts
 SPC Attribute Measurements
Normal Distribution: Z-Value
p-Chart Control Limits

T o tal N u m b er o f D efectiv es
p= m
T o tal N u m b er o f O b serv atio n s
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Z
Z- VALUE is the number of Standard
p (1 - p ) Deviations from the mean of the Normal Curve

Sp =
n p percentage defects (mean)
Sp Standard deviation of p
UCL = p + Z sp
Z Number of standard
LCL = p - Z sp deviations
n Number of observation per
sample (i.e., sample size)
UCL Upper control limit
LCL Lower control limit
 p-Chart Example
1. Calculate the sample proportion, p, for each sample Sample
2. Calculate the average of the sample proportions Sample Size Defective p
1 100 4 0.04
59 2 100 3 0.03
p= = 0.0393 3 100 5 0.05
1500 4 100 6 0.06
3. Calculate the sample standard deviation 5 100 2 0.02
6 100 1 0.01
p (1 - p) .0393(1 - .0393) 7 100 6 0.06
sp = = = .0194
n 100 8 100 7 0.07
9 100 3 0.03
4. Calculate the control limits (where Z=3) 10 100 8 0.08
11 100 1 0.01
UCL = p + Z sp = .0393 3(.0194) = .0976 12 100 2 0.02
13 100 1 0.01
LCL = p - Z sp = .0393 - 3(.0194) = - 0.0189 0 14
15
100
100
9
1
0.09
0.01
Total 1500 59
5. Plot the individual sample
proportions, the average
of the proportions, and the 0.1

control limits 0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
 SPC Continuous Measurements
n A2 D3 D4
X-bar, R Chart Control Limits
2 1.88 0 3.27
3 1.02 0 2.57
4 0.73 0 2.28 x Chart Limits
5 0.58 0 2.11
6 0.48 0 2.00 UCL = x + A 2 R
7 0.42 0.08 1.92
8 0.37 0.14 1.86
9 0.34 0.18 1.82 LCL = x - A 2 R
10 0.31 0.22 1.78
R Chart Limits
Shewhart Table of
Control Chart Constants UCL = D 4 R
LCL = D 3 R
 SPC Continuous Measurements
UCL = x + A 2 R 10.54 .58(0.58) = 10.87
LCL = x - A 2 R 10.54 - .58(0.58) = 10.19
Observation
Sample Sample
Sample 1 2 3 4 5 Mean Range Sample Mean
UCL
10.90
1 10.6 10.7 10.5 10.9 10.9 10.7 0.4
10.80

2 10.4 11.0 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.6 0.6 X-bar 10.70

10.60

Means
3 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.2 10.5 10.6 0.6
Chart 10.50
10.40
4 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.4 11.0 10.4 0.8 10.30

10.20
5 11.0 10.7 10.9 10.6 10.8 10.8 0.4
10.10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
6 10.9 10.0 10.4 10.1 10.5 10.4 0.8 LCL
Sample

7 10.8 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.6 0.4

8 10.1 10.3 10.9 10.2 10.4 10.4 0.8
9 11.0 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.7 0.5 UCL = D 4 R (2.11)(0.58) 1.22
10 10.8 10.9 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.6 0.6
LCL = D 3 R (0)(0.58) 0
11 10.5 11.0 10.5 10.8 10.8 10.7 0.5
12 10.2 10.1 10.7 10.8 10.2 10.4 0.7 Sample Range
13 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.4 11.0 10.6 0.7
R 1.25 UCL
1.05
14 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.8 10.3 0.7
Chart 0.85
15 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.2 0.2 0.65

Total Average 10.54 0.58 0.45

0.25

0.05
LCL

-0.15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Sample
Proper Assessment of Control Charts

Find special causes and eliminate

If special causes treated like common causes,
opportunity to eliminate specific cause of variation is
lost.

Leave common causes alone in the short term

If common causes treated like special causes, you will
most likely end up increasing variation (called
tampering)

Taking the right action improves the situation

Quarterly Audit Scores

Did something unusual happen?

Score

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Quarter
Quarterly Audit Scores

What do these lines represent?

Score

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Quarter
Quarterly Audit Scores

Now what do you think?

Score

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Quarter
Agenda for Measure

1. Types of Measures/Setting Targets

2. Data Collection and Prioritization
3. SPC, Control Charts
4. Process Capability
Process Capability Introduction

Voice of the Process (The Voice of the Data)

Based on natural (common
cause) variation

Tolerance limits (The Voice of the Customer)

Customer requirements/Specs

Process Capability A measure of how capable

the process is to meet
customer requirements
Compares process limits to
tolerance limits
Process Capability Scenarios

A C
specification specification

natural variation natural variation

B D
specification specification

natural variation natural variation

Process Capability Index, Cpk

Capability Index shows if the process is capable of meeting

customer specifications

X LTL UTL - X
Cpk = min
or

3 3

Find the Cpk for the following:

Mean = 50.50
Stdev = 1.5
A process has a mean of 50.50 and a
variance of 2.25. The product has a
specification of 50.00 4.00
50.00 4.00
 Interpreting the Cpk

Cpk > or = 0.33 Capable at 1 *

Cpk > or = 0.67 Capable at 2 *
Cpk > or = 1.00 Capable at 3
Cpk > or = 1.33 Capable at 4
Cpk > or = 1.67 Capable at 5
Cpk > or = 2.00 Capable at 6

* Processes with Cpk < 1 are traditionally called not capable.

However, improving from 1 to 2, for example, is extremely valuable.
 Calculating Yield
0.9910 0.90 0.99100 0.37
96 units 98 units 95 units 90 units
100 units 96 units
Task 4 rwk Task 2 rwk Task 5 rwk Task 10 rwk Task
1 2 3 4 5

Total Output of the Final Task 96

Traditional Yield (TY) TY TY 0.96
Total Number of Units Started 100

Rolled Throughput Yield (RTY): Units Produced Without Re work

RTY cum( )
Total Number of Units Started
another way to get Sigma level
RTY 0.96 * 0.98 * 0.95 * 0.90 * 0.96 0.77

The Hidden Factory = TY - RTY The Hidden Factory = 0.96-0.77 =0.19

Traditional Yield assessments ignore the hidden factory!
Six Sigma Quality Level

Six Sigma results in at most 3.4 DPMO - defects per

million opportunities (allowing for up to 1.5 sigma shift).

Is Six Sigma Quality

IRS Tax Advice
Possible?
DPMO

1,000,000 Doctor Prescription Writing

Restaurant Bills
93% good
100,000
Airline Baggage Handling
99.4% good Payroll Processing
10,000
99.98% good
1,000

100
Domestic Airline Flight
10 Fatality Rate
(0.43PMM)
1
1 2 3 4 5 6

SIGMA

Source: Motorola Inc.

 Six Sigma Quality
Total Number of Defects
DPMO
Six Sigma Shift 1,000,000 opportunit ies
The drift away from target mean over time
3.4 defects/million assumes an average shift of 1.5 standard deviations
With the 1.5 sigma shift, DPMO is the sum of 3.39767313373152 and
0.00000003, or 3.4. Instead of plus or minus 6 standard deviations, you
must calculate defects based on 4.5 and 7.5 standard deviations from
the mean! Without the shift, the number of defects is .00099*2 = .002
DPMO.

Z 4.5 6.0 7.5

P(<Z) 0.99999660232687 0.99999999901341 0.99999999999997
1 - P(<Z) 0.00000339767313 0.00000000098659 0.00000000000003
* 1,000,000 3.39767313373152 0.00098658770042 0.00000003186340
 Quality Levels and DPMO

Defects per million opportunities

Assumes 1.5 sigma shift of the mean

DPMO (Defects per Reduction from previous

Sigma Level million opportunities) sigma level
1.0 697672
2.0 308770 55.74%
3.0 66811 78.36%
4.0 6210 90.71%
5.0 233 96.25%
6.0 3.4 98.54%

Regardless of the current process sigma level, a very significant

improvement in quality will be realized by a 1-sigma improvement!
Is Six Sigma Quality Desirable?

99% Quality means that

10,000 babies out of 1,000,000 will be given to the wrong
parents!
One out of 100 flights would result in fatalities. Would you fly?

What is the quality level for Andruw Jones?