CLIMATE CHANGE

ADVANCED PLACEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

 GREENHOUSE EFFECT

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT IS NECESSARY FOR

LIFE ON EARTH BECAUSE IT HAS RAISED THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE APPROXIMATELY 96
DEGREES F.
SCIENTISTS ANALYZE TINY AIR BUBBLES
TRAPPED IN ICE CORES TO LEARN ABOUT
PAST:
TROPOSPHERE COMPOSITION.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS.
SOLAR, SNOWFALL, AND FOREST FIRE
ACTIVITY.
 IT ALL STARTED WITH KEELINGS CURVE
*THE VARIABILITY IS DUE TO SEASONAL PHOTOSYNTHETIC ACTIVITY
 HOW DOES RADIATION GET INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND THEN TRAPPED?

THE SUNS ENERGY REACHES EARTH IN THE

FORM OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH
ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION. MOST OF THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE EARTHS
ATMOSPHERIC GASES AND IS ABSORBED BY
THE EARTH.
THE ENERGY THAT IS REFLECTED OFF OF THE
EARTHS SURFACE IS IN THE FORM OF THE
LONGER WAVELENGTH INFRARED
RADIATION.
THE LONGER WAVELENGTH OF INFRARED
RADIATION STAYS MOSTLY TRAPPED IN THE
ATMOSPHERE DUE TO GREENHOUSE GASES.
 GREENHOUSE GASES
THE MOST ABUNDANT GREENHOUSE GAS IS WATER VAPOR.
NEEDED FOR LIFE TO EXIST
WOULD YOU REGULATE IT?
SECOND MOST IS CARBON DIOXIDE
EMISSIONS OF CO2 HAVE NOW EXCEEDED 400 PARTS PER MILLION (PPM)
DOUBLED SINCE THE START OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND WE HAVE NOT SEEN LEVELS THIS HIGH IN
400,000 YEARS.
THE HUMAN ADDITIONS TO THESE LEVELS ARE CREATING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AND VARIATION IN
EXTREMES BEYOND THE NATURAL PROGRESSION.
NITROUS OXIDES AND METHANE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE EFFECTIVE THAN CO2 IN TRAPPING HEAT, BUT ARE IN
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMOUNTS.
CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS ARE THE BEST AT TRAPPING HEAT, BUT PRODUCTION WAS GLOBALLY BANNED BY THE
MONTREAL PROTOCOL BY THE YEAR 2000.
 GLOBAL EMISSIONS OF CO

2015 total carbon

2015 total emissions
country rank
Country
1 China
2 United States
3 India
4 Russia
dioxide emissions
CHINA HAS THE HIGHEST EMISSIONS OF ANY
from fuel COUNTRY IN THE WORLD
combustion (million
metric tons) HOWEVER, THE U.S. HAS THE HIGHEST
EMISSIONS PER CAPITA (PER PERSON) BY FAR.
INDIA IS BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED AND IS
9040.74
RELYING MORE AND MORE ON THEIR
4997.50 ABUNDANT COAL RESERVES, SO THAT NUMBER
WILL INCREASE.
2066.01
1468.99
(UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS)
 THE IPCC

THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE

CHANGE (IPCC) IS THE INTERNATIONAL BODY FOR
ASSESSING THE SCIENCE RELATED TO CLIMATE
CHANGE. THE IPCC WAS SET UP IN 1988 BY THE
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO)
AND UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME
(UNEP) TO PROVIDE POLICYMAKERS WITH REGULAR
ASSESSMENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE, ITS IMPACTS AND FUTURE RISKS, AND
OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION.
 INTERNATIONAL PROTOCOLS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
A PROTOCOL IS THE OFFICIAL PROCEDURE OR SYSTEM OF RULES GOVERNING AFFAIRS OF STATE
OR DIPLOMATIC OCCASIONS. THEY ARE NOT A CONTRACT, BUT MORE OF AN AGREEMENT.

KYOTO PROTOCOL PARIS CLIMATE ACCORDS (COP21)

TREATY ON GLOBAL WARMING WHICH FIRST PHASE
WENT INTO EFFECT JANUARY, 2005 WITH 189
COUNTRIES PARTICIPATING.
IT REQUIRES 38 PARTICIPATING DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES TO CUT THEIR EMISSIONS OF CO2, CH4,
AND N2O TO 5.2% BELOW THEIR 1990 LEVELS BY
2012.
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WERE EXCLUDED.
THE U.S. DID NOT SIGN, BUT SEVERAL STATES LIKE
CALIFORNIA AND MAINE ARE PARTICIPATING.
U.S. DID NOT SIGN BECAUSE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
SUCH AS CHINA, INDIA AND BRAZIL WERE EXCLUDED.
IN 2015 COP21, ALSO KNOWN AS THE 2015 PARIS
CLIMATE CONFERENCE, AFTER OVER 20 YEARS OF UN
NEGOTIATIONS, AIMED TO ACHIEVE A LEGALLY
BINDING AND UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE,
WITH THE AIM OF KEEPING GLOBAL WARMING
BELOW 2C.
THE U.S. DECIDED TO WITHDRAW FROM THE COP21
AGREEMENTS IN 2017
 SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLES THAT GUIDE RESEARCH IN
GLOBAL WARMING
THERMAL EXPANSION
AND SEA LEVEL RISE
ALBEDO
FEEDBACK LOOPS
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
 THERMAL EXPANSION

SEA LEVEL RISE IS NOT MAINLY DUE TO MELTING OF

SEA ICE! IT IS MOSTLY DUE TO THERMAL EXPANSION
AS THE OCEAN WARMS, THE DENSITY DECREASES
AND THUS EVEN AT CONSTANT MASS THE VOLUME
OF THE OCEAN INCREASES. THIS THERMAL
EXPANSION (OR STERIC SEA LEVEL RISE) OCCURS AT
ALL OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND IS ONE OF THE
MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO SEA LEVEL CHANGES
DURING THE 20TH AND 21ST CENTURIES. WATER AT
HIGHER TEMPERATURE OR UNDER GREATER PRESSURE
(I.E., AT GREATER DEPTH) EXPANDS MORE FOR A
GIVEN HEAT INPUT, SO THE GLOBAL AVERAGE
EXPANSION IS AFFECTED BY THE DISTRIBUTION OF
HEAT WITHIN THE OCEAN.
 ALBEDO
THE MEASURE OF THE REFLECTIVITY OFF OF A
SURFACE
SNOW HAS THE HIGHEST ALBEDO, WHICH IS WHY
YOU CAN GET A SUNBURN IN A SNOWSTORM.
FORESTS AND GRASSLANDS ABSORB HEAT ON
EARTH
THIS IS WHY DEFORESTATION AND DESERTIFICATION
ARE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES.
 POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOPS

WHAT ARE FEEDBACK LOOPS? CLIMATE FEEDBACK LOOPS

CLIMATE FEEDBACKS: PROCESSES THAT CAN
EITHER AMPLIFY OR DIMINISH THE EFFECTS
OF CLIMATE FORCINGS. A FEEDBACK THAT
INCREASES AN INITIAL WARMING IS CALLED
A "POSITIVE FEEDBACK." A FEEDBACK THAT
REDUCES AN INITIAL WARMING IS A
"NEGATIVE FEEDBACK."
 EXAMPLES OF CLIMATE FEEDBACK LOOPS
CLOUDS. CLOUDS HAVE AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON EARTH'S CLIMATE, REFLECTING ABOUT ONE THIRD OF THE TOTAL
AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT THAT HITS THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE BACK INTO SPACE. EVEN SMALL CHANGES IN CLOUD
AMOUNT, LOCATION AND TYPE COULD HAVE LARGE CONSEQUENCES. A WARMER CLIMATE COULD CAUSE MORE
WATER TO BE HELD IN THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND ALTERING THE AMOUNT OF
SUNLIGHT THAT REACHES THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH. LESS HEAT WOULD GET ABSORBED, WHICH COULD SLOW THE
INCREASED WARMING.
PRECIPITATION. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY INCREASE DUE TO THE
INCREASED AMOUNT OF WATER HELD IN A WARMER ATMOSPHERE, BUT NOT IN ALL REGIONS. SOME REGIONS WILL
DRY OUT INSTEAD. CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS, SUCH AS INCREASED WATER AVAILABILITY, MAY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN PLANT GROWTH, WHICH IN TURN COULD POTENTIALLY REMOVING MORE CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THE
ATMOSPHERE.
GREENING OF THE FORESTS. NATURAL PROCESSES, SUCH AS TREE GROWTH, REMOVE ABOUT HALF OF HUMAN
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM THE ATMOSPHERE EVERY YEAR. SCIENTISTS ARE CURRENTLY STUDYING WHERE
THIS CARBON DIOXIDE GOES. THE DELICATE BALANCE BETWEEN THE ABSORPTION AND RELEASE OF CARBON DIOXIDE
BY THE OCEANS AND THE WORLDS GREAT FORESTED REGIONS IS THE SUBJECT OF RESEARCH BY MANY SCIENTISTS.
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE ABILITY OF THE OCEANS OR FORESTS TO CONTINUE ABSORBING CARBON
DIOXIDE MAY DECLINE AS THE WORLD WARMS, LEADING TO FASTER ACCUMULATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
ICE ALBEDO. ICE IS WHITE AND VERY REFLECTIVE, IN CONTRAST TO THE OCEAN SURFACE, WHICH IS DARK AND
ABSORBS HEAT FASTER. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND SEA ICE MELTS, THE DARKER OCEAN ABSORBS MORE HEAT,
CAUSES MORE ICE TO MELT, AND MAKES THE EARTH WARMER OVERALL. THE ICE-ALBEDO FEEDBACK IS A VERY STRONG
POSITIVE FEEDBACK.
 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

WHEN CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) IS ABSORBED

BY SEAWATER, CHEMICAL REACTIONS OCCUR
THAT REDUCE SEAWATER PH, CARBONATE ION
CONCENTRATION, AND SATURATION STATES
OF BIOLOGICALLY IMPORTANT CALCIUM
CARBONATE MINERALS.
THESE CHEMICAL REACTIONS ARE TERMED
"OCEAN ACIDIFICATION" OR "OA" FOR SHORT.
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION CONTINUED

CALCIUM CARBONATE MINERALS ARE THE BUILDING

BLOCKS FOR THE SKELETONS AND SHELLS OF MANY
MARINE ORGANISMS. IN AREAS WHERE MOST LIFE
NOW CONGREGATES IN THE OCEAN, THE
SEAWATER IS SUPERSATURATED WITH RESPECT TO
CALCIUM CARBONATE MINERALS.
THIS MEANS THERE ARE ABUNDANT BUILDING
BLOCKS FOR CALCIFYING ORGANISMS TO BUILD
THEIR SKELETONS AND SHELLS.
HOWEVER, CONTINUED OCEAN ACIDIFICATION IS
CAUSING MANY PARTS OF THE OCEAN TO
BECOME UNDERSATURATED WITH THESE
MINERALS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
ABILITY OF SOME ORGANISMS TO PRODUCE AND
MAINTAIN THEIR SHELLS.
WE HAVE GOTTEN EXPONENTIALLY BETTER AT
MODELING EVERY DECADE
THE AGE OF BIG DATA
 FROM THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE CLIMATE
SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT 2017 MANDATED BY
CONGRESS EVERY FOUR YEARS
GLOBAL ANNUALLY AVERAGED SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1.8F (1.0C)
OVER THE LAST 115 YEARS (19012016). THIS PERIOD IS NOW THE WARMEST IN THE HISTORY OF
MODERN CIVILIZATION. THE LAST FEW YEARS HAVE ALSO SEEN RECORD-BREAKING, CLIMATE-
RELATED WEATHER EXTREMES, AND THE LAST THREE YEARS HAVE BEEN THE WARMEST YEARS ON
RECORD FOR THE GLOBE. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CLIMATE TIMESCALES.
THIS ASSESSMENT CONCLUDES, BASED ON EXTENSIVE EVIDENCE, THAT IT IS EXTREMELY LIKELY
THAT HUMAN ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES, ARE THE DOMINANT
CAUSE OF THE OBSERVED WARMING SINCE THE MID-20TH CENTURY. FOR THE WARMING OVER
THE LAST CENTURY, THERE IS NO CONVINCING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION SUPPORTED BY THE
EXTENT OF THE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE.
HTTPS://SCIENCE2017.GLOBALCHANGE.GOV/CHAPTER/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY/
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
 WHAT ARE SOME POTENTIAL TIPPING POINTS AND
EXTREMES WE WILL SEE?
TABLE 15.1: POTENTIAL TIPPING ELEMENTS (ADAPTED FROM KOPP ET AL. 2016 ).

Candidate Climatic Tipping Element State Shift Main Impact Pathways

Atmosphereocean circulation

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Major reduction in strength Regional temperature and precipitation;
global mean temperature; regional sea
level

El NioSouthern Oscillation Increase in amplitude Regional temperature and precipitation

Equatorial atmospheric superrotation Initiation Cloud cover; climate sensitivity

Regional North Atlantic Ocean convection Major reduction in strength Regional temperature and precipitation
Cryosphere
Antarctic Ice Sheet Major decrease in ice volume Sea level; albedo; freshwater forcing on
ocean circulation
Arctic sea ice Major decrease in summertime and/or Regional temperature and precipitation;
perennial area albedo
Greenland Ice Sheet Major decrease in ice volume Sea level; albedo; freshwater forcing on
ocean circulation
Carbon cycle

Methane hydrates Massive release of carbon Greenhouse gas emissions

Permafrost carbon Massive release of carbon Greenhouse gas emissions

Ecosystem

Amazon rainforest Dieback, transition to grasslands Greenhouse gas emissions; biodiversity

Boreal forest Dieback, transition to grasslands Greenhouse gas emissions; albedo;

biodiversity

Coral reefs Die-off Biodiversity