Global Vehicle Forecast

WardsAuto/AFS
Global Light-Vehicle Production Outlook
(China Becoming the World Hub?)

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

GLOBAL LIGHT-VEHICLE PRODUCTION FORECAST

After averaging 4%
year/year increases the past
four years, production
growth in 2015 slowed to an
estimated 1.4% gain to 88.9
million units
2015 slowdown due to
lower growth in China and
downturns in Brazil, Canada,
Japan, Russia.
Chinas growth picks up in
2016 while most other
major production hubs
recently in decline at least
stanch their losses.
Annual production tops 100
million by 2019

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

LONG-TERM PRODUCTION SHARE BY REGION

China, if it can keep its
economy from imploding
and continue steady
economic growth, will
continue as the bellwether
for automotive production
(and sales)
Share for the rest of Asia-
Pacific peaks in 2016, but
begins to drop along with
other regions, especially as
Japan and South Korea-
based automakers continue
spreading capacity around
the world

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

PRODUCTION OF TOP 12 BRANDOWNERS

(Rank based on forecast volume 2016 through 2022)

Millions

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

PRODUCTION OF TOP BRANDOWNERS CONTINUED (REST OF INDUSTRY)

(Rank based on forecast volume 2016 through 2022)

Millions

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

WHATS HAPPENING WHILE GLOBAL PRODUCTION

CONTINUES ONWARD AND UPWARD
Platform consolidation
More production from globally based platforms
Vehicle proliferation
New volume to China
Lions share of new-platform starts
More foreign-based automakers initiating new
products there first

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

PLATFORM CONSOLIDATION
GLOBAL PLATFORM COUNT PER YEAR
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
The number of platforms
TOTAL PLATFORMS 387 404 400 399 397 391 390 387 globally peaks in 2016,
NEW PLATFORMS 17 29 10 12 2 3 4 1
NET GAIN/LOSS 1 17 -4 -1 -2 -6 -1 -3
then declines as global
automakers consolidate
architectures
There still will be a spat
of new platforms
replacing older versions,
including in some cases
more than one
New architectures
expand the global
manufacturing footprint
of their owners

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

PRODUCTION BY PLATFORM VOLUME GROUPINGS Top Heavy

The Top 15 by
volume will account
for one-third of
production by 2022
The Top 50 (out of
387) in 2022 account
for two-thirds of
global volume

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

REGIONAL GROWTH OF TOP 50 PLATFORMS

Production in total for the
highest volume platforms
increases in all regions
Biggest gains in China
Top 50 growth in Asia-
Less-China not as strong as
other regions

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION: Production Share Based on Number

of Regions Where Each Platform is Manufactured
Platforms produced in all five
regions will account for one-in-
three vehicles built in 2022, up
South America and Middle
from one-in-five in 2016
East/Africa counted as one
Over 70% of production in 2022
region for this chart
will come from platforms
assembled on at least three
continents
A major portion of the volume
for one- and two-region
platforms comes from General
Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler
(due to the North American
markets penchant for big
trucks), and from China-OEM
engineered architectures

Data includes all platforms

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
 Global Vehicle Forecast

WHERE PRODUCTION OF NEW PLATFORMS ARE ORIGINATING

Production for most new architectures starting in China before

spreading to other regions

FIRST REGION TO START PRODUCTION OF NEW PLATFORMS

(Based on Calendar Year Starts)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ASIA-PACIFIC (LESS CHINA) 4 4 2 3 0 0 0 0
CHINA 8 11 3 2 1 0 0 0
EUROPE 3 6 2 3 0 3 1 1
NORTH AMERICA 0 4 1 2 0 0 1 0
SOUTH AMERICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MULTI-REGION STARTS 2 4 2 2 1 0 1 0
MULTI-REGION STARTS 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
INCLUDING CHINA
High count for that year.

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

WHO IS ORIGINATING NEW PLATFORMS AMONG TOP GLOBAL PRODUCERS

NUMBER OF NEW
PLATFORMS STARTING
OUTPUT IN CHINA BY
AUTOMAKER
2016 2022

GAC Motor 2
Geely (Volvo) 2
General Motors 2
Honda Motor 2
Brilliance Jinbei 1
BYD 1
Changan Auto 1
Chery 1
Chery-JLR 1
Dongfeng-Luxgen 1
FAW 1
Ford Motor 1
Suzuki Motor 1

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

PROGRAMS PROLIFERATE AS PLATFORMS CONSOLIDATE

GLOBAL PROGRAM COUNT PER YEAR As major automakers
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
PROGRAM COUNT 1,429 1,488 1,495 1,520 1,532 1,557 1,566 1,549 expand globally, and
NEW PROGRAMS 216 172 123 145 87 153 125 119 developing markets
NET GAIN/LOSS 105 59 7 25 12 25 9 -17
continue growing, the
number of programs (and
nameplates) will increase to
meet local needs
Ironically, 2015 is a peak
year for new-program
launches even though a rash
of new platforms debut in
2016
The cadence of new
programs, or product intros,
indicates the next peak
circa 2025

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

NEW PROGRAM (PRODUCT) STARTS BY REGION

New product startups appear to be waning in China, but just a lull
after the bombardment of the past several years

TOTAL
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016-22

ASIA-PACIFIC (LESS CHINA) 78 52 30 28 12 63 50 22 257

CHINA 100 76 39 42 22 40 36 60 315

EUROPE 36 34 46 56 30 41 33 38 278

NORTH AMERICA 16 19 20 32 33 30 17 13 164

SOUTH AMERICA 6 7 5 6 6 6 8 12 50

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 3 3 3 1 3 2 3 4 19
High count for that year.
Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
 Global Vehicle Forecast

PROGRAM (AND VEHICLE) EXPANSION AMONG

HIGH-VOLUME PLATFORMS
Even with globalization of
platforms, successful expansion
into global markets in many cases
means some extent of product
differentiation to meet local
consumer tastes or regulations
Thus, the number of programs on
major platforms will increase by
23 in the next seven years
But nameplates off those
programs, and the mid-cycle
enhancements that go with
them, will increase too.

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

HOW MUCH AND WHERE TOP OEMs ARE STARTING NEW PRODUCTS: 2016-2022
GM could be in the best position going forward based on its new-product cadence
got the bases covered in North America, appears to be regrouping in Europe and
progressing well in China.
Toyota also well-covered globally and has a lot of money

ASIA LESS NORTH SOUTH MIDEAST

CHINA CHINA EUROPE AMERICA AMERICA /AFRICA TOTAL
General Motors 33 16 12 33 2 0 96
Toyota Motor 25 35 2 6 1 0 69
Volkswagen 9 2 51 2 4 0 68
Renault/Nissan 14 24 13 10 0 0 61
Fiat Chrysler 6 2 28 14 8 0 58
Ford Motor 14 1 16 18 2 0 51
PSA/Peugeot-Citroen 17 0 19 1 1 3 41
Hyundai (incl. Kia) 15 19 4 2 0 0 40
Honda Motor 10 16 0 11 0 0 37
BMW 3 0 23 5 0 0 31
Daimler 2 0 19 4 0 0 25
Suzuki Motor 7 17 1 0 0 0 25

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

REPLACEMENT /NEW VOLUME PEAKS IN 2020

Production from new

programs peaks in
2020
By 2022, over 80% of
production will be new
or replacement
volume of vehicles in
production from 2015

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

CHINA TAKES LIONS SHARE OF NEW VOLUME 2022

(and beyond?)

Japan- and South Korea-

based manufacturers
prime new-product
volume in 2015
Japan/South Korea
makers peak again in
2020
In between, Europe soars
in 2018 and 2019
largely due to makeovers
for big trucks soars for
North America
Chinas emerges again
2022

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

WHAT WILL CHANGE THE OUTLOOK AND WHO IS BEST SET FOR IT?
Something will change over next five years good or
bad: Politics, oil prices, exchange rates, global and local
economic health, manufacturer financial health, etc.
A likely result: OEM consolidation--
Who in best position to survive next economic
downturn or significant slowdown in demand globally
or in major markets
Who lags in investing to meet 2025 (emissions and fuel
efficiency standards)

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto

 Global Vehicle Forecast

FORECASTING TOOLS

Powerful database and reporting tools to

customize your output
Scenario-building tool to consider
different assumptions and their effects

Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com - 248-799-2642
 Global Vehicle Forecast

VEHICLE FORECAST

Global production covering

6 regions
Eight-year planning window, updated
monthly
Medium and heavy duty truck volumes
included for N.A.

Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com - 248-799-2642
 Global Vehicle Forecast

POWERTRAIN FORECAST

Realistic picture of
powertrain volumes
Engine, transmission,
hybrid & electric
Eight-year forecast,
updated monthly

Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com - 248-799-2642
 Global Vehicle Forecast

PRODUCT CYCLES

All current and future product plans with

SOP and EOP, updated monthly
By Manufacturer, Brand, Platform,
Program, Nameplate, Plant, Average
Lifetime Volume

Talk with Lisa Williamson to learn more

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com - 248-799-2642
 Global Vehicle Forecast

Talk with us today to learn how

WardsAuto can help you

Lisa Williamson Nakia Elsaidi

Lwilliamson@wardsauto.com Nelsaidi@wardsauto.com

248-799-2642 248-799-2622

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst, WardsAuto