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Basic Probability
(Week 1)
L1 Introduction to Basic Probability -
Sample Spaces and Events
Learning Objectives:
December 17 2
Probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty.
Probability forms the basis with which we can make inferences
about a population based on the distribution and it provides
methods for quantifying the chances or likelihood associated with
various outcomes. Probability helps to explain a lot of everyday
occurrences and we actually discuss it frequently.
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Definitions
Random Process: any process whose possible results are known but actual
results cannot be predicted with certainty in advance.
Compound events:
A : observe an odd number = {1, 3, 5}
B : observe a number greater than or equal to 4 = {4, 5, 6}
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Example 1
Toss a coin three times and note the number of heads
S = { 0, 1, 2, 3 }
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Example 2:
Each message in a digital communication system is classified as to
whether it is received within the time specified by the system design. If
3 messages are classified, what is an appropriate sample space for
this experiment?
To generate the sample space, we can use a tree diagram
Message 3
Message 2 y
Message 1 y n S = { yyy, yyn, yny, ynn,
y
y n n nyy, nyn, nny, nnn}
y
y
n n
n y
n
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More Definitions
The union of events A and B, denoted by A U B and read A or B is the event
consisting of all outcomes that are either in A or in B or in both events.
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Venn Diagram
Graphical display of events in a sample space.
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Example 3
A digital scale is used that provide weights to the nearest
gram.
Let event A: a weight exceeds 11 grams
B: a weight is less than or equal to 15 grams
C: a weight is greater than or equal to 8 grams and
less than 12 grams.
b) A U B = S c) A B = { X: 11 < X 15 }
or {12, 13, 14, 15}
d) A = { X: X 11} e) A U B U A U C = S
or {0, 1, 2, , 11} September 2013 11
A ={12,13,14,..}
B ={0,1, 2, 3, .....15}
C ={8, 9, 10, 11}
g) A B C = {A B} C
= {12, 13,14, 15} {8, 9, 10, 11} =
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A ={12,13,14,..}
B ={0,1, 2, 3, .....15}
C ={8, 9, 10, 11}
h) B = { X: X > 15}.
Therefore, B C would be the empty set.
They have no outcomes in common or
i) B C = { X: 8 X <12}.
A (B C) = {X: X 8}
or {8, 9, 10, }
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