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AERO 2355 Systems Engineering

AERO 2355 Systems Engineering

Learning Outcomes

Understand the principles of Design for Manufacturability Understand the concepts of Design For Assembly Basic ability to predict manufacturing learn-out process Familiarity with FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis) How design choices affecting manufacturing process affects cost

Manufacturing Learn Out

The aircraft industry was the first to quantify that it took less time to manufacture the 2nd aircraft, and even less time to

manufacture the 3 rd , and less for

  • 4 th

, …

First Noticed by Wright Patterson Air Force Base in the 1920’s

T.P. Wright, Factors Affecting the Cost

of Airplanes, 1936.

A typical rate is a 20% reduction in cost every time the quantity produced doubles

This “Learn Out” of the manufacturing process applies to most complex systems and results in a net decrease in the direct labour costs to manufacture the product

Unit Number

Unit Labor

Cumulative

Cumulative Average

Hours

Labor Hours

Labor Hours

  • 1 100

100

100

  • 2 80

180

90

  • 4 64

314.21

75.55

8

51.2

534.6

66.82

16

40.96

892

55.75

  • 32 32.77

1468

45.87

  • 64 26.21

2392

37.38

3

Manufacturing Learn Out

This has cost and planning implication when bidding for a program or managing a program

The 50 th F-22 should cost considerably less than the first (make more profit)

Can also make them faster (increased production rate)

There are also training and staffing implications

You can use the same process to estimate how fast a trainee should come up to speed on a process

Alternatively, can use this process to determine future staffing needs

If you are not ramping up production, you will need fewer staff as the process becomes more efficient

A380 List Price

Manufacturing Learn Out  This has cost and planning implication when bidding for a program or

4

Manufacturing Learn Out Equation

The Learn Out Equation can be used to estimate the hours for units later in the production stream

Should be noted that this is an exponential model where rate of improvement is initially very fast, but gets slower with increasing units Model as a smooth curve, but it is generally not a smooth process.

log log2 Y  Kx x
log
log2
Y
Kx
x

Where x = the unit number Y x = number of labor hours to produce xth unit

What are number of hours to produce 11 th unit if the first unit

requires 100 hours and it takes 75 hours to produce second unit

K = number of labor hours to produce the 1 st unit

Φ = cost fraction per doubled production

Y

11

100

log0.75

11

log2

37

Learn-Out Examples - Staffing

Learn-Out Rate for Aircraft is typically 80%

90% rates more typical in Micro electronics

as processes are more automated and less ‘learning’

Staffing Example:

Gulfstream is introducing a derivative aircraft. 90% learning curve is assumed. Estimated demand for the next three years are 50, 75, and 100 aircraft. The time to produce the first aircraft is estimated to be 35000 hrs. What are the staffing requirements assuming employee work 160 hrs/mo, 1920 hrs/year?

Y

10

3500010

log0.90

log2

24664

Y

50

35000

log0.90

50

log2

19313

Cumulative Hours For first 50 Airplanes 1,124,970 hours

1124970/1920 = 590 workers

Learn-Out Examples - Staffing

Staffing Example:

In year 2, Gulfstream will make 75 aircraft. More or less employees needed?

Y

51

35000

log0.90

51

log2

19254

Y

125

35000125

log0.90

log2

16801

Cumulative Hours For next 75 Airplanes 1336630 hours

1336630/1920 = 696 workers

Note how the rate of improvement in production has decreased. In year 3, Gulfstream will make 100 aircraft. More or less employees needed?

Y

225

35000

log0.90

225

log2

15365

Cumulative Hours For next 100 Airplanes 1.6M hours 833 workers 33% more planes 205 more workers

Learning Curves

 

log

Y

x

Kx

log2

On average each new employee takes 10 minutes to do a certain task the first time.

 

If the goal is to have the employee be able to perform the task in 6 minutes by the end of the first day, do you have the right person for the job?

 
Takes 21 days (1000 attempts) Vastly over qualified
Takes 21 days (1000 attempts)
Vastly over qualified

Y

x

log

Kx

log2

Learn-Out Principle Example 1

Time provided for first aircraft. Determine how long to build 100 th aircraft. Also determine average number of hours

Takes 750 hours to build first aircraft Assume 10% reduction of time when building 2d aircraft

1

750

2

675

3

634.6545

4

607.5

5

587.24

6

571.189

7

557.9609

8

546.75

9

537.0484

 
  • 10 528.516

11

520.9144

 
  • 12 514.0701

 
  • 13 507.8535

 
  • 14 502.1648

 
  • 15 496.926

 
  • 16 492.075

 
  • 17 487.5613

 
  • 18 483.3436

 
  • 19 479.3876

……..

87

380.4069

88

379.7466

89

379.0949

90

378.4516

91

377.8165

92

377.1894

93

376.57

94

375.9583

95

375.3541

96

374.7571

97

374.1673

98

373.5844

99

373.0083

100

372.4389

 

436.0577

Average

9

Y

x

log

Kx

log2

Learn-Out Principle Example 2

For the three workers below, determine how long it will take them to get a process down to 7 minutes based on their first and second attempts.

 

Trainee

Try1

Try2

 
 

(hrs)

(hrs)

Art

11

9.9

Sherry

10.5

8.9

Dave

12

9.6

Solution

log(9.9/11) log2 7 (11)K Art 
log(9.9/11)
log2
7
(11)K
Art 

Learning Curve

Number of Repetitions

0.9

6.97641169

20

0.847619048

7.152806966

5

0.8

7.147648123

5

What is Design for Manufacture and Assembly?

Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) is the general engineering art of designing products in such a way that they are easy to manufacture and easy to assemble

Where

is DFM used?

  • DFM is utilized in many industries ranging from industrial products, microelectronics, scientific instruments, and the aerospace industry

• Boeing’s 787 example

• Need to incorporate ability to manufacture and assemble into such a design or it will not work well

11
11

DFMA and Product Design

To design a product that can be easily, efficiently, and cost effectively be manufactured and assembled

  • Why DFMA?

    • Lower development cost

    • Shorter development time

    • Faster manufacturing start of build

    • Lower assembly and test costs

    • Higher quality

Engine for a 2010 Corvette ZR1

ZR1 Engine Design

It normally takes between three and five years to design a car engine

The design team consists of many engineers who usually stay on the same page in terms of the overall design of the engine.

But what about the people who are responsible for designing the processes to produce that engine?

Or what about the people who are responsible for putting that engine together?

Design for Manufacture

  • When designing it is important to consider how the parts are going to be produced

  • Manufacturing engineers need to be able

 

to take your design and create the

manufacturing processes

  • This can be done by:

 

Creating simple parts

Using a machinable materials

Design for Assembly

  • MUST be EASY to assemble

  • The harder a product is to assemble:

The longer it takes to produce

The more likely the chance that

something will go wrong (Quality suffers) The more it costs to produce

Time Equals Money

In Australia, you need to manufacture 9 times more efficiently than China or India just to break even

Need for Lean manufacturing

Time Equals Money  In Australia, you need to manufacture 9 times more efficiently than China

15

Assembly Hours per Vehicle

Japanese have been the pioneers of lean manufacturing

They have reduced the time to manufacture automobiles through:

1970’s and 80’s the introduction of lean manufacturing processes 1990’s to present the introduction of automated assembly (robotics)

The rest of the world has struggled to keep up

Cost and quality advantage (for similar class vehicles)

Assembly Hours per Vehicle  Japanese have been the pioneers of lean manufacturing  They have

Japan

  • 16 Savings resulting from the use of DFMA for the Ford TAURUS are estimated to be > $1B.

25

 

U.S. (Big 3)

U.S. (Big 3)

Europe

Assembly Hours per Vehicle  Japanese have been the pioneers of lean manufacturing  They have

36

Design for Manufacture - General Rules

  • 1. Keep it Simple

  • 2. Use Standard Materials and Components

  • 3. Standardize the Design of the Product

  • 4. Use Liberal Tolerances

  • 5. Use Materials that are Easy to Process

6.Teamwork with Manufacturing Personnel

  • 7. Avoid of Secondary Operations

8.Design for Expected Level of Production 9.Design for Specific Capabilities or Process Characteristics 10.Avoid Process Restrictiveness

Reduce the Total Number of Parts

Designing a product with less parts means less

  • - Purchases

  • - Inventory

  • - Handling

  • - Development Time

  • - Equipment

  • - Engineering Time

  • - Assembly Difficulty

- Service Inspection

  • - Testing

  • - Processing Time

F18 E/F has 42% FEWER parts than C/D even though it is 25% LARGER

18

DFMA on the Tomahawk Cruise Missile

1980 2000 Parts 11500 7500  Through applying DFMA techniques the part count, and assembly hours
1980
2000
Parts
11500 7500
 Through applying
DFMA techniques
the part count, and
assembly hours of
the Tomahawk
Land Attack Missile
has been reduced
Fasteners
2500 800
Circuit Boards
45
22
Connectors
160
45
 As a result the unit
cost has been
halved
Assembly/Test
Hours
Unit Cost
610
195
$1,000,000
$500,000
Manufacturing Processes  Casting, foundry, or molding  Forming or metalworking  Machining  Joining and
Manufacturing Processes  Casting, foundry, or molding  Forming or metalworking  Machining  Joining and

Manufacturing Processes

Casting, foundry, or molding Forming or metalworking Machining Joining and Assembly Surface Treatments Rapid Prototyping Heat Treating

Manufacturing Processes  Casting, foundry, or molding  Forming or metalworking  Machining  Joining and
Manufacturing Processes  Casting, foundry, or molding  Forming or metalworking  Machining  Joining and
Manufacturing Processes  Casting, foundry, or molding  Forming or metalworking  Machining  Joining and

Design for Manufacture - Processes

There are multiple manufacturing processes. Which manufacturing process to use? Depends on part design and requirements Depends on number of parts

x3
x3

$95

$75

Machine from Block

Assemble 3 Parts

$10

$100

Cost of Part

Cost of Tooling

$1.20

Bend from Stock

$0.30

Cast Part

$5,000 $60,000

Plastics

Much more use of plastics in automotive and other industries Consider plastic bumper in a car as an example

Process

Mold Cost

Labor/unit

Injection Molding

$450,000

3min = $1

Compression Molding

$55,000

6min = $2

Contact Molding

$20,000

1hr = $20

Process

1000 parts

10,000 parts

100,000 parts

1M parts

Injection Molding

$451

$46

$5.50

$1.45

Compression Molding

$57

$7.50

$2.55

$2.06

Contact Molding

$40

$22

$20.20

$20.02

Design for Manufacture - Tolerances

The cost of increasing tolerance is non linear Tight tolerances should be avoided when possible

Design for Manufacture - Tolerances  The cost of increasing tolerance is non linear  Tight

Part Complexity

The complexity of a part can be mathematically modelled based on its shape, type and number of geometric features.

This ‘complexity’ can be useful in predicting manufacturing cost

The information content ‘I’ represents the number of digital bits of information

 l  log      l   I  n log2
l
log 
 l
I  n
log2

Where n = the number of dimensions of the component

1 l   l  l  ... l  n 1 2 n 
1
l
l
l
...
l
n
1
2
n
     
l
l
l
...
l
1
2

is the geometric mean dimension

n

1 n
1
n

is the geometric mean of the tolerance

An engine block might have 1000 bits of information Which represents a complex part

Spatial Complexity of Parts

Spatial Complexity of Parts From Schey, Introduction to Manufacturing Processes 25

From Schey, Introduction to Manufacturing Processes

Design for Manufacture – Reduce Processes

Every operation adds cost

Time Machines

Material and fluid waste

Every operation adds opportunity for

error

26
26

Design for Manufacture – Dual Use of Components

Reduce the total number of parts required

Reduce manufacturing time Reduce inventory required

Example – A part that acts as a heat dissipating element and as a structural support Example – Wing provides lift and is also place for fuel storage Make a fuel tank which also carries part of the structural load

Design for Manufacture – Dual Use of Components  Reduce the total number of parts required

27

Design for Assembly

Assembly typically occupies 40-60% of production time, and is thus as important as manufacturing Can be more so for complex products such as aircraft

Design for Assembly is the art of designing such that the assembly process is minimized or made more cost effective

DESIGN CONCEPT SUGGESTIONS FOR DESIGN FOR ASSEMBLY ( DFA ) SIMPLIFICATION FOR PRODUCT STRUCTURE SELECTION OF
DESIGN CONCEPT
SUGGESTIONS FOR
DESIGN FOR ASSEMBLY
( DFA )
SIMPLIFICATION FOR
PRODUCT STRUCTURE
SELECTION OF
MATERIALS AND
PROCESSES AND EARLY
COST ESTIMATES
SUGGESTIONS FOR
MORE ECONOMIC
MATERIALS AND
PROCESSES
Design for Assembly  Assembly typically occupies 40-60% of production time, and is thus as important

BEST DESIGN CONCEPT

   
Design for Assembly  Assembly typically occupies 40-60% of production time, and is thus as important

DETAIL DESIGN FOR

MINIMUM MANUFACTURING COST

DETAIL DESIGN FOR MINIMUM MANUFACTURING COST
DESIGN FOR MANUFACTURE ( DFM ) PROTOTYPE
DESIGN FOR MANUFACTURE
( DFM )
PROTOTYPE

PRODUCTION

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners

Use snap fits where possible Consider molded hinges, straps Rationalize fasteners - types, lengths etc. Use one piece fasteners with lead Design geometry for automatic alignment

Snap fits

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners  Use snap fits where possible  Consider
Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners  Use snap fits where possible  Consider

Living hinges & straps

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners  Use snap fits where possible  Consider
Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners  Use snap fits where possible  Consider

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners

Use one piece fasteners with lead in pilots

Use single-piece fasteners, with guide pilots

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners  Use one piece fasteners with lead in

or

inserts

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fasteners  Use one piece fasteners with lead in

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fastener Carry Tray

Design For Assembly – Reduce Number of Fastener Carry Tray 90% 4 parts 24 parts 8

90%

4 parts

24 parts

8 parts

How do we take it to 2 parts?

How do we get rid of 16 parts?

How do we get rid of 4 parts?

You have reduced

assembly cost by

You just cut the

assembly cost by

40%

Design For Assembly – Orientation

Assemble in only one direction – vertical if possible Make gravity your friend Avoid assembly from side Never turn the assembly over Gravity is no longer your friend Everything not fastened securely will move Lose datum point for machine assembly

Design For Assembly – Orientation  Assemble in only one direction – vertical if possible 

Design For Assembly – Standardize

Reduce not only the number but also the type of Fasteners If you can use the same size and length of fastener, do so Reduces inventory and waste Reduces error and assembly time (tool change out, switching screws) Use common materials and metals Reduces corrosion Overall reduction in inventory and number of suppliers Reduces costs and logistical burden

Design for Assembly – Provide Reference Points and Fixture Points

Of particular importance for automated assembly is to provide reference points for machines

Also important to provide fixture points to attach to assembly line hardware and or robots

- Common datum’s for all fixtures - bottom rails for conveyor -One common plane for assembly
- Common datum’s for all fixtures
- bottom rails for conveyor
-One common plane for assembly
- Tabs for robotic lift

DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues

How many ways can you orient a part? If a person must pick it up and orient it correctly that takes time Can a robot even perform that task?

DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues  How many ways can you

z

β α x
β
α
x
DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues  How many ways can you

y

DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues

1. Components should be symmetrical or have exaggerated asymmetry 2. Design so that resting position either:

a) Does not matter b)Or is predictable

Symmetrical shapes have a predictable rest aspect

Non-symmetrical shapes have an unpredictable resting aspect

exaggerated asymmetry and part falls on one of its flat faces

DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues 1. Components should be symmetrical or
DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues 1. Components should be symmetrical or
DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues 1. Components should be symmetrical or

DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues 1. Components should be symmetrical or
DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues 1. Components should be symmetrical or

DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues 1. Components should be symmetrical or

DFA – Understand Symmetries and Rotational Degrees of Freedom Issues

1. Components should be designed to have the least number of asymmetries

2. Allows for part to be used in multiple orientations

To reduce the chance of correct feeding and positioning:

A is better than B
A
is better
than
B
A B is better than
A
B
is better
than

Specific Design Guidelines for Automated Assembly

Understanding the automated processes and learning from past problems leads to design of parts which facilitate assembly

Specific Design Guidelines for Automated Assembly

Consider the dimensions important to feeding and orienting

Loosely tolerancing non-functional dimensions can cause problems if the feeding and orienting method is not considered -

 jamming may occur if components are at extremes of limit: Feeder / Hopper Delivery Tube
 jamming may occur if components are at extremes
of limit:
Feeder / Hopper
Delivery
Tube
 In other words the assembly process may drive the
dimensions of parts over and above the part’s
function in the system
Parts

out

Questions to Determine if a Part is Necessary

  • 1. Is the part used only for fastening or securing other items?

  • 2. Is the part used only for connecting other items?

If you answer YES to either then the part is not theoretically necessary If NO, then ask

  • 1. During operation of the product, does the part move relative to all other parts already assembled? (exclude small motions)

  • 2. Must the part be of a different material than, or be isolated from, all other parts already assembled? (only material property reasons allowed)

  • 3. Must the part be separate from all other parts already assembled because otherwise necessary assembly or dissassembly of other separate parts would be impossible?

If answer to all three questions is NO, then part is not theoretically necessary

DFA – Example

A Design for Assembly analysis was conducted for the pressure controller

Note that several design for assembly guidelines violated

Assembly from side Unnecessary parts

Analysis estimates assembly time by estimating handling time for each part and process associated with each part

Insertion Time (s)

Handling Time (s)

Number of Items

Required Part

Total Time (s)

DFA - Example

A list of items and assembly operations is generated

A handling time and insertion time for each is estimated

Add the insertion and handling times and multiply by the number of items to get the total time

Pressure Regulator Y Y Y Screw
Pressure Regulator
Y
Y
Y
Screw

Time for entire assembly process can thus be estimated

Y
Y

Also determine whether part is theoretically required or not

Y
Y

227 seconds of assembly Only 5 theoretically necessary parts

DFA – Example – Eliminate Parts and Save Time

DFA -Example

Proposed redesign has reduced the number of parts from 21 to 10

Assembly time has been reduced from 227 sec to 77 sec

Assembly cost reduced by 60%

Manufacturing cost also reduced

Failure Mode Effects Analysis

Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) are techniques which help explore design or process weaknesses

Examine the ways in which a system can fail Determine the effects of those failures and rank the effects Rank the failure modes and effects in terms of their probability of occurrence

Basically - What is likely to happen if Function X were to fail, what are the consequences of that failure, and how likely is it to occur?

The FMECA process allows these failure modes to be ranked and helps the designers focus on failure modes which should be addressed

Preferable to do the analysis before failures occurs, but can still be helpful after the fact

FMECA

Identify Failure Modes Determine Outcomes of Failure – Chain of events Assess severity of outcome

FMECA  Identify Failure Modes  Determine Outcomes of Failure – Chain of events  Assess

Risk Priority Number

During a FMECA process, a Risk calculated for each event.

Priority Number (RPN) is

These RPN’s are

used to rank the failure modes

The ones with the highest RPN should receive the most attention

RPN = (severity of failure) x (occurrence of failure) x (detection rating)

RPNs range from 1 to 1000

Some product specifications will include that no RPN is over some threshold such as 100 or 200

Often the FMECA is done after a failure, and then the top few RPN’s are addressed.

Cost usually comes into the picture

November 4 2010 QE32 Engine ‘Explosion

 Probably a 9  Safety risk, complete shut down, but obviously not catastrophic to aircraft
 Probably a 9
 Safety risk, complete shut down,
but obviously not catastrophic
to aircraft

So where does this incident rank on the severity scale?

The ongoing investigation by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau indicated that "fatigue cracking" in a stub

pipe within the engine resulted in oil leakage followed by an oil fire in the engine. The fire led to the release of the

Intermediate Pressure Turbine (IPT) disc. It also said the issue is specific to the Trent 900.

Airbus determined that the IPT disc released three different high energy fragments, resulting in structural and

systems damage. It also concluded that segregated wiring routes were cut by two out of the three individual

pieces of disc debris and as a result, engine one could not be shut down after landing

FMECA – Occurrence Scale

3 of 45 Trent 900’s were removed from service after inspection since faulty oil pipes found on them

Probability ranking of 9

FMECA – Detectability Scale

FMECA – Example of Fan Disk Failure

Consider 3 causes of Fan Disk Failure, with 3 failure modes

FMECA provides a way to determine which failure mode should be addressed first

Learning Summary

Design for Manufacture and Assembly is an important concept which can greatly improve the profitability of a design

The consideration of manufacturing processes and the method by which the system will be assembled, during the design phase leads to both a reduction in unit cost and a higher throughput in the factory

There are general rules which can be applied to most designs

The ‘learn out’ of a manufacturing process leads to faster production times for subsequent units

FMECA is an important tool to assess risks associated with designs