SHORT-TERM

LOAD
FORECASTING
Janna Pauline G. Pueblas
BS EE
SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING

Load forecasting has always been an

essential and important topic for power
systems, especially the STLF, which is
fundamental in many applications such as
providing economic generation, system
security, and management and planning
Different forecasting models have been employed in
power systems for achieving forecasting accuracy. Among
the models are regression, statistical and state-space
methods. In addition, artificial intelligence-based
algorithms have been introduced based on expert
system, evolutionary programming, fuzzy system,
artificial neural network (ANN), and a combination
of these algorithms. Among these algorithms, ANN has
received more attention because of its clear model, easy
implementation, and good performance.
APPLICATIONS OF LOAD FORECASTING
Generation Scheduling. Scheduling is the main
purpose of short-term load forecasting. For hydro
generating systems, forecasting would determine the
flow of water from reservoirs. For thermal systems,
forecasting is used for unit commitment, in calculating
start-up and shutdown of each plant. For
hydrothermal systems, forecasting is required for
balancing the amount of power produced by hydro
and thermal plants to achieve an economical
operation.
Power System Security. STLF could lead to more
secure operation of the system. Using load forecasting,
the effect of scheduled operation on power system
security can be predicted, and preventive and corrective
actions can be prescribed, before the occurrence of
contingencies.
Generation Reserve of the System. Power
generation reserves could overcome shortcomings
caused by sudden load increases and plant failures. The
appropriate amount of reserve can be determined based
on load forecasting.
Providing Information to Dispatchers. The
dispatcher would need the real time information
regarding very short-term loads in order to operate the
system most economically.
Market Operation. With deregulation of the power
industry, load forecasting is becoming even more
important, not only for system operators but also for
market operators, transmission owners, and other
market participants, so that adequate energy
transactions can be scheduled, and appropriate
operational plans and bidding strategies can be
established [Che01].
 LOAD FORECASTING CATEGORIES
In power systems planning, load forecasting is for a span of several months
to one year. This type of forecasting is mainly for fuel scheduling. Longer terms
in load forecasting could be from one to ten years, which is used for
determining the economical location, type, and size of future power plants.
In power systems operation, load forecasting is mostly for a span of few
minutes to 168 hours. There are two main categories of load forecasting in
power systems operation: i.e., very short- and short-term load forecasting.Very
short-term load forecasting is for minutes ahead and is used for automatic
generation control (AGC). Short-term load forecasting is for one to 168 hours
ahead. Short-term load forecasting results are mainly used for generation
scheduling purposes.
In general, short-term load forecast ought to
be available every morning before 7 o’clock
for the next 40 hours. Friday’s forecast
includes weekend and next Monday’s
forecasts. But when the Monday forecast
becomes crucial, the forecast could be made
on Sunday.
QUIZ
1. Scheduling is the main purpose of short-term load forecasting. For hydro generating systems,
forecasting would determine the flow of water from reservoirs.
a) Generation Scheduling
b) Power System Security
c) Generation Reserve of the System
d) Providing Information to Dispatchers
2. Is fundamental in many applications such as providing economic generation, system security, and
management and planning.
a) Load Forecasting
b) Load Demand
c) Load Patterns
d) None of the above
3. could overcome shortcomings caused by sudden load increases and plant failures. The appropriate
amount of reserve can be determined based on load forecasting.
a) Generation Scheduling
b) Power System Security
c) Generation Reserve of the System
d) Providing Information to Dispatchers
4. STLF could lead to more secure operation of the system. Using load forecasting, the effect of scheduled
operation on power system security can be predicted, and preventive and corrective actions can be
prescribed, before the occurrence of contingencies.

a) Generation Scheduling
b) Power System Security
c) Generation Reserve of the System
d) Providing Information to Dispatchers
5. In general, short-term load forecast ought to be available every morning before 7 o’clock for the next
________ hours.
a) 50 hours
b) 45 hours
c) 40 hours
d) 35 hours