Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Crisis Financieras y
Limites de la Política
Fiscal
Sesión 3
Empresas y Gobierno
Fuente: IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2012 MAARE 14
MBA esan
Europa: Pequeño Margen en las Cuentas Fiscales
OECD Ingresos Fiscales: Gobierno General (% de PBI),
Fuente OECD Economic Outlook, July 2017
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia 34.3 34.6 34.8 34.1 33.4 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.5 34.2 37.1 36.6 35.5 35.9 35.5 35.7 35.8 36.3 36.0 35.7
Austria 52.3 50.7 51.4 51.1 51.4 54.0 51.4 50.5 49.5 50.3 54.5 53.1 51.1 51.5 51.3 52.7 51.7 51.0 50.0 49.6
Belgium 50.1 49.0 49.2 49.5 50.7 48.9 51.6 48.4 48.2 50.3 54.1 53.3 54.5 55.9 55.8 55.1 53.9 53.4 52.4 52.0
Canada 41.9 40.7 41.2 40.5 40.4 39.3 38.6 38.8 38.6 38.9 43.5 43.2 41.7 41.0 40.1 38.6 40.3 40.8 40.2 39.9
Czech Republic 41.2 40.3 42.5 44.3 48.5 42.2 41.9 40.8 39.9 40.2 43.6 43.0 43.1 44.5 42.6 42.2 42.1 39.9 40.1 40.0
Denmark 54.5 52.7 52.8 53.2 53.6 53.0 51.2 49.8 49.6 50.4 56.5 56.7 56.4 58.0 55.8 55.3 54.8 53.6 53.3 52.8
Estonia 40.3 36.4 35.0 36.1 35.2 34.3 34.0 33.6 34.1 39.8 46.0 40.5 37.4 39.3 38.5 38.5 40.4 40.4 40.8 41.0
Finland 51.0 48.0 47.3 48.5 49.4 49.3 49.3 48.3 46.8 48.3 54.8 54.8 54.4 56.2 57.5 58.1 57.0 56.1 55.1 54.2
France 52.1 51.1 51.2 52.3 52.8 52.6 52.9 52.5 52.2 53.0 56.8 56.5 55.9 56.8 57.0 57.3 57.0 56.6 56.1 55.9
Germany 47.8 44.7 46.8 47.2 47.7 46.5 46.3 44.7 42.8 43.6 47.6 47.4 44.8 44.3 44.6 44.3 44.0 44.4 44.5 44.5
Greece 46.2 46.3 45.9 45.7 46.5 47.6 45.5 45.1 47.1 50.9 54.1 52.4 54.2 55.4 62.3 50.6 54.3 49.1 48.6 48.0
Hungary 48.4 46.8 46.7 50.4 48.7 48.4 49.4 51.1 49.5 48.4 50.2 49.2 49.4 48.2 48.8 48.6 49.7 47.3 47.0 47.1
Iceland 41.6 41.2 41.8 43.3 44.7 43.0 41.6 41.1 41.0 55.3 48.4 49.3 45.7 45.4 43.9 45.3 42.9 41.2 40.4 39.9
Ireland 33.9 30.9 32.5 33.1 33.0 33.2 33.3 33.8 35.8 41.8 47.1 65.3 46.0 41.9 39.9 37.9 29.6 28.1 27.5 26.9
Israel 50.2 48.0 50.2 51.2 50.6 47.0 45.9 44.6 42.6 42.2 42.2 41.1 40.5 41.4 41.0 40.7 39.7 39.9 40.3 40.2
Italy 47.4 45.4 47.5 46.8 47.2 46.9 47.1 47.6 46.8 47.8 51.2 49.9 49.4 50.8 51.1 50.9 50.5 49.6 49.0 48.7
Japan 37.1 37.5 36.8 37.0 36.6 35.2 35.1 34.6 34.6 35.6 40.2 39.3 40.2 40.2 40.3 39.8 39.0 38.7 39.0 38.0
Korea 25.7 24.7 26.4 26.1 32.6 29.6 29.5 30.1 29.7 32.0 34.9 31.0 32.3 32.7 31.8 32.0 32.3 32.5 32.5 32.5
Latvia 40.8 37.3 34.8 35.2 33.5 34.8 34.3 36.1 34.0 37.5 43.7 45.0 39.0 37.3 36.9 37.5 37.0 36.3 37.5 37.2
Luxembourg 39.4 37.8 38.3 41.4 43.5 43.8 43.6 39.7 37.8 39.7 45.2 44.2 42.4 44.1 43.3 41.8 41.3 41.2 40.1 39.5
Netherlands 43.5 41.8 43.1 43.9 44.7 43.7 42.3 43.0 42.4 43.6 48.2 48.2 47.0 47.1 46.3 46.2 45.3 43.6 42.7 42.6
New Zealand 39.4 37.5 37.2 36.5 37.0 36.6 37.7 39.0 38.7 40.7 41.8 47.9 44.8 43.7 42.5 41.5 41.4 40.2 39.7 39.2
Norway 47.1 42.0 43.8 46.7 47.9 45.0 42.1 40.8 41.4 40.2 46.1 45.0 43.8 42.9 44.0 45.9 48.8 51.1 50.3 50.6
Poland 43.9 42.1 44.8 45.3 45.7 43.5 44.3 44.6 43.1 44.2 44.9 45.8 43.9 42.8 42.6 42.3 41.6 41.3 41.5 41.9
Portugal 42.6 42.6 44.1 43.7 45.3 46.1 46.7 45.2 44.5 45.3 50.2 51.8 50.0 48.5 49.9 51.8 48.3 45.1 43.9 43.2
Slovak Republic 47.9 52.0 44.4 45.1 39.9 37.8 39.8 38.8 36.3 36.9 44.1 42.1 40.8 40.6 41.4 42.0 45.6 41.6 40.7 39.9
Slovenia 45.8 46.1 47.0 45.8 45.8 45.3 44.9 44.2 42.2 43.9 48.2 49.3 50.0 48.6 60.3 50.1 48.1 45.5 44.4 44.1
Spain 39.9 39.1 38.5 38.6 38.3 38.7 38.3 38.3 39.0 41.1 45.8 45.6 45.8 48.1 45.6 44.9 43.8 42.4 41.4 40.6
Sweden 56.7 53.6 53.0 54.2 54.3 52.9 52.8 51.4 49.7 50.4 53.1 51.3 50.7 51.7 52.3 51.4 50.2 50.1 49.8 49.6
Switzerland 33.9 34.2 33.8 36.3 35.6 35.0 34.0 32.2 30.9 31.2 33.1 32.9 32.9 33.3 34.1 33.8 33.9 34.2 34.3 34.2
United Kingdom 36.0 35.9 37.2 38.2 39.4 40.6 41.7 41.4 41.5 45.3 48.6 48.3 46.6 46.5 44.9 43.7 43.0 42.4 41.9 41.3
United States 1 34.3 33.9 35.2 36.3 36.8 36.5 36.6 36.4 37.2 39.7 43.2 43.2 42.0 40.2 38.9 38.2 MAARE
37.9
38.1 14
38.1 37.9
Euro area 47.6 45.7 46.7 46.9 47.3 46.9 46.7 46.1 45.3 46.7 50.7 50.6 49.2 49.8 49.8 49.4 48.6 47.9 47.4 47.1
Total OECD 39.3 38.5 39.4 40.0 39.8 39.1 39.1 38.8 38.8 40.7 44.2 43.8 42.9 42.4 41.8 41.3 40.9 40.6 40.4 40.1
MBA esan
OECD Gastos Fiscales: Gobierno General (% de PBI),
Fuente OECD Economic Outlook, July 2017
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia 36.9 36.1 34.8 35.7 36.1 35.7 35.9 36.1 35.5 33.9 33.1 32.0 32.1 32.9 33.4 33.6 34.3 34.3 34.4 34.5
Austria 49.7 48.6 50.8 49.7 49.6 49.2 48.8 48.0 48.1 48.8 49.1 48.6 48.5 49.2 49.9 50.0 50.6 49.5 49.0 48.9
Belgium 49.5 49.0 49.4 49.6 49.0 48.8 48.9 48.7 48.3 49.2 48.8 49.3 50.3 51.6 52.7 52.0 51.4 50.8 50.6 50.2
Canada 43.6 43.3 41.8 40.3 40.3 40.0 40.2 40.6 40.4 39.1 39.6 38.4 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.6 39.1 38.8 38.5 38.6
Czech Republic 37.7 36.9 37.1 38.1 42.1 39.5 38.7 38.5 39.2 38.1 38.1 38.6 40.4 40.6 41.4 40.3 41.4 40.5 40.5 40.5
Denmark 55.4 54.6 54.0 53.2 53.5 55.1 56.2 54.8 54.6 53.6 53.7 54.0 54.4 54.5 54.8 56.7 53.5 52.7 52.5 52.5
Estonia 37.0 36.3 35.2 36.5 37.0 36.7 35.1 36.5 36.9 37.1 43.8 40.7 38.6 39.1 38.4 39.2 40.5 40.7 40.4 40.2
Finland 52.6 54.9 52.3 52.6 51.8 51.5 51.9 52.3 51.9 52.4 52.2 52.1 53.3 54.0 54.9 54.9 54.2 54.2 53.4 52.8
France 50.5 49.8 49.7 49.2 48.9 49.1 49.8 50.1 49.7 49.8 49.6 49.7 50.8 52.0 52.9 53.3 53.4 53.1 53.0 53.1
Germany 46.1 45.6 43.7 43.3 43.6 42.7 42.8 43.0 42.9 43.5 44.4 43.1 43.8 44.2 44.5 44.6 44.7 45.1 45.3 45.1
Greece 40.4 42.3 40.5 39.7 38.7 38.8 39.3 39.2 40.3 40.7 38.9 41.2 44.0 46.5 49.2 47.0 48.4 49.8 48.3 47.7
Hungary 43.3 43.8 42.7 41.6 41.6 42.1 41.6 41.9 44.5 44.8 45.7 44.7 43.9 45.9 46.3 46.5 48.1 45.5 44.4 44.3
Iceland 42.4 42.5 40.8 40.5 41.6 42.7 46.1 47.0 45.9 42.3 38.7 39.6 40.1 41.7 42.1 45.2 42.0 58.4 41.3 41.4
Ireland 36.4 35.8 33.5 32.7 33.4 34.5 34.9 36.6 36.1 34.8 33.3 33.2 33.4 33.9 34.2 34.2 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.8
Israel 44.8 44.8 44.6 44.4 43.0 41.9 41.9 42.9 41.9 39.5 36.6 37.7 37.7 36.7 37.0 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.6 37.6
Italy 45.6 44.1 44.1 43.7 43.8 43.3 43.0 44.0 45.3 45.2 45.9 45.7 45.7 47.8 48.1 47.8 47.8 47.1 46.9 47.3
Japan 30.3 30.2 30.5 29.6 29.1 29.9 30.7 31.6 31.8 31.5 30.5 30.1 31.1 31.9 32.7 34.4 35.4 34.1 34.0 33.6
Korea 27.3 29.1 29.4 29.6 30.6 29.9 31.0 32.4 33.9 34.3 33.6 32.0 33.3 33.7 33.1 33.2 33.6 34.5 34.5 34.3
Latvia 37.1 34.5 32.8 32.9 31.9 33.8 33.9 35.5 33.3 33.2 34.6 36.3 35.7 36.3 35.9 35.9 35.8 36.4 36.8 36.8
Luxembourg 42.9 43.7 44.2 43.8 43.7 42.6 43.7 41.6 42.0 43.0 44.5 43.5 42.9 44.4 44.3 43.2 42.7 42.7 40.8 40.1
Netherlands 43.8 43.6 42.8 41.8 41.7 41.9 42.1 43.2 42.7 43.8 42.7 43.2 42.7 43.2 43.9 43.9 43.2 44.0 43.8 44.2
New Zealand 39.2 39.2 38.6 39.8 40.5 40.5 42.3 44.2 43.0 41.2 39.0 40.7 40.7 41.6 41.9 41.8 41.4 40.2 40.0 40.0
Norway 53.0 57.1 57.0 55.8 55.1 55.9 56.9 58.8 58.6 58.9 56.4 56.0 57.3 56.8 54.8 54.6 54.8 54.2 54.4 55.0
Poland 41.6 39.1 40.0 40.4 39.6 38.4 40.3 41.0 41.3 40.6 37.7 38.5 39.1 39.1 38.5 38.8 39.0 38.8 38.6 38.9
Portugal 39.5 39.4 39.3 40.4 40.9 39.9 40.5 40.9 41.5 41.6 40.4 40.6 42.6 42.9 45.1 44.6 44.0 43.1 42.4 42.2
Slovak Republic 40.6 40.0 38.0 37.1 37.2 35.5 36.9 35.2 34.4 34.5 36.3 34.7 36.5 36.3 38.7 39.3 42.8 40.0 39.4 39.3
Slovenia 42.8 42.5 43.1 43.4 43.2 43.4 43.6 43.0 42.1 42.5 42.3 43.6 43.3 44.5 45.2 44.7 45.2 43.6 43.5 43.8
Spain 38.6 38.1 37.9 38.2 37.9 38.6 39.5 40.5 40.9 36.7 34.8 36.2 36.2 37.6 38.6 38.9 38.6 37.9 38.3 38.2
Sweden 57.4 56.9 54.4 52.7 53.0 53.2 54.6 53.5 53.0 52.4 52.4 51.2 50.5 50.7 51.0 49.9 50.5 51.0 50.7 50.5
Switzerland 32.9 33.7 33.0 33.6 33.2 32.8 32.8 32.5 31.9 33.2 33.9 33.3 33.6 33.5 33.6 33.5 35.0 34.8 34.8 34.7
United Kingdom 36.7 37.0 37.6 36.2 36.2 37.1 38.3 38.6 38.6 40.4 38.0 38.7 39.0 38.2 39.2 38.1 38.7 39.1 38.8 38.9
United States 1 34.2 34.7 33.8 31.5 30.9 31.0 32.4 33.3 33.5 32.5 30.4 31.0 31.3 31.2 33.4 33.2 33.5 33.0 33.3 32.7
Euro area 46.1 45.4 44.7 44.2 44.2 43.9 44.1 44.6 44.7 44.5 44.5 44.4 45.0 46.1 46.8 46.8 MAARE
46.5
46.3 14
46.2 46.2
Total OECD 38.1 38.1 37.6 36.4 35.5 35.5 36.3 37.0 37.2 37.0 35.8 35.8 36.3 36.7 37.8 37.8 38.0 37.6 37.6 37.3
MBA esan
OECD Gobierno General: Deficit Fiscal (-) (% PBI),
Fuente OECD Economic Outlook, July 2017
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia 2.6 1.5 0.0 1.6 2.7 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.0 -0.3 -4.0 -4.6 -3.4 -3.0 -2.0 -2.1 -1.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2
Austria -2.6 -2.1 -0.7 -1.4 -1.8 -4.9 -2.6 -2.6 -1.4 -1.5 -5.4 -4.5 -2.6 -2.2 -1.4 -2.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.0 -0.7
Belgium -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -1.8 -0.2 -2.8 0.2 0.1 -1.1 -5.4 -4.0 -4.1 -4.2 -3.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.6 -1.9 -1.9
Brazil -5.2 -3.3 -3.3 -4.4 -5.2 -2.9 -3.5 -3.6 -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.3 -3.0 -6.0 -10.2 -9.0 -8.2 -8.0
Canada 1.7 2.6 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 0.2 -3.9 -4.7 -3.3 -2.5 -1.5 0.0 -1.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3
China -2.2 -2.7 -2.3 -2.3 -1.9 -0.9 -0.7 0.1 1.7 1.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2
Czech Republic -3.5 -3.5 -5.3 -6.3 -6.4 -2.7 -3.1 -2.3 -0.7 -2.1 -5.5 -4.4 -2.7 -3.9 -1.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6
Denmark 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.0 -0.1 2.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.2 -2.8 -2.7 -2.1 -3.5 -1.0 1.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4
Estonia -3.3 -0.1 0.2 0.4 1.8 2.4 1.1 2.9 2.7 -2.7 -2.2 0.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.7
Finland 1.7 6.9 5.0 4.1 2.4 2.2 2.6 3.9 5.1 4.2 -2.5 -2.6 -1.0 -2.2 -2.6 -3.2 -2.7 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4
France -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -3.1 -3.9 -3.5 -3.2 -2.3 -2.5 -3.2 -7.2 -6.8 -5.1 -4.8 -4.0 -3.9 -3.6 -3.4 -3.0 -2.8
Germany -1.7 0.9 -3.1 -3.9 -4.2 -3.8 -3.4 -1.7 0.2 -0.2 -3.2 -4.2 -1.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6
Greece -5.8 -4.1 -5.5 -6.0 -7.8 -8.8 -6.2 -5.9 -6.7 -10.2 -15.1 -11.2 -10.3 -8.9 -13.2 -3.7 -5.9 0.7 -0.2 -0.2
Hungary -5.1 -3.0 -4.0 -8.8 -7.1 -6.3 -7.8 -9.2 -5.0 -3.6 -4.5 -4.5 -5.4 -2.3 -2.5 -2.1 -1.5 -1.8 -2.6 -2.7
Iceland 0.8 1.2 -1.0 -2.8 -3.1 -0.3 4.5 5.9 4.9 -13.0 -9.7 -9.8 -5.6 -3.7 -1.8 -0.1 -0.8 17.2 0.9 1.5
India1 -9.5 -9.5 -10.0 -9.6 -8.5 -7.4 -6.7 -5.5 -4.1 -8.6 -9.6 -7.1 -7.8 -6.9 -6.7 -6.5 -7.5 -7.0 -6.7 -6.4
Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.1 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -1.6 -2.2 -2.1 -2.5 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5
Ireland 2.4 4.9 1.0 -0.3 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.8 0.3 -7.0 -13.8 -32.1 -12.7 -8.1 -5.7 -3.7 -2.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2
Israel -5.3 -3.2 -5.6 -6.8 -7.6 -5.2 -4.0 -1.7 -0.7 -2.7 -5.6 -3.5 -2.7 -4.7 -4.0 -3.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.7 -2.7
Italy -1.8 -1.3 -3.4 -3.1 -3.4 -3.6 -4.2 -3.6 -1.5 -2.7 -5.3 -4.3 -3.7 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4 -2.1 -1.4
Japan -6.8 -7.4 -6.2 -7.4 -7.5 -5.3 -4.4 -3.0 -2.8 -4.1 -9.8 -9.1 -9.1 -8.3 -7.6 -5.4 -3.5 -4.6 -5.0 -4.4
Korea 1.6 4.4 3.0 3.5 -2.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 4.2 2.3 -1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.8
Latvia -3.7 -2.7 -2.0 -2.2 -1.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -4.3 -9.1 -8.7 -3.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.3 0.0 -0.8 -0.4
Lithuania -2.8 -3.2 -3.5 -1.9 -1.3 -1.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -3.1 -9.1 -6.9 -8.9 -3.1 -2.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.3
Luxembourg 3.5 5.9 5.9 2.4 0.2 -1.3 0.1 1.9 4.2 3.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.5 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.6
Netherlands 0.3 1.9 -0.3 -2.1 -3.0 -1.7 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -5.4 -5.0 -4.3 -3.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 0.4 1.1 1.6
New Zealand -0.2 1.7 1.4 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.6 5.2 4.4 0.5 -2.8 -7.1 -4.0 -2.2 -0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8
Norway 5.9 15.1 13.2 9.1 7.2 10.9 14.8 18.0 17.1 18.7 10.3 11.0 13.4 13.8 10.8 8.8 6.0 3.1 4.1 4.5
Poland -2.3 -3.0 -4.8 -4.8 -6.1 -5.0 -4.0 -3.6 -1.9 -3.6 -7.3 -7.3 -4.8 -3.7 -4.1 -3.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.9 -3.0
Portugal -3.0 -3.2 -4.8 -3.3 -4.4 -6.2 -6.2 -4.3 -3.0 -3.8 -9.8 -11.2 -7.4 -5.7 -4.8 -7.2 -4.4 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0
Russia .. .. .. -0.5 1.4 4.9 4.9 6.8 4.6 5.9 -3.3 -1.0 3.1 2.0 -0.2 -1.0 -3.4 -3.7 -3.3 -2.7
Slovak Republic -7.3 -12.0 -6.4 -8.1 -2.7 -2.3 -2.9 -3.6 -1.9 -2.4 -7.8 -7.5 -4.3 -4.3 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6
Slovenia -3.0 -3.6 -3.9 -2.4 -2.6 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -5.9 -5.6 -6.7 -4.1 -15.1 -5.4 -2.9 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2
South Africa -3.7 -4.1 -2.5 -3.3 -4.5 -4.6 -2.4 -1.7 -0.7 -1.7 -3.9 -3.3 -2.5 -3.6 -3.6 -4.1 -3.9 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0
Spain -1.3 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 1.2 2.2 1.9 -4.4 -11.0 -9.4 -9.6 -10.5 -7.0 -6.0 -5.1 -4.5 -3.1 -2.3
Sweden 0.8 3.2 1.4 -1.5 -1.3 0.3 1.8 2.2 3.3 1.9 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -1.4 -1.5 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.0
Switzerland -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2 -1.2 0.3 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
United Kingdom 0.7 1.1 0.4 -2.0 -3.3 -3.5 -3.4 -2.8 -2.9 -4.9 -10.6 -9.6 -7.7 -8.3 -5.7 -5.6 -4.3 -3.3 -3.1 -2.4
United States 0.0 0.8 -1.4 -4.8 -6.0 -5.5 -4.2 -3.1 -3.7 -7.2 -12.8 -12.2 -10.8 -9.0 -5.5 -5.0 MAARE 14
-4.4 -5.0 -4.7 -5.2
Euro area -1.5 -0.3 -2.0 -2.7 -3.2 -3.0 -2.6 -1.5 -0.7 -2.2 -6.3 -6.2 -4.2 -3.6 -3.0 -2.6 -2.1 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9
Total OECD -1.2 -0.4 -1.8 -3.6 -4.3 -3.6 -2.8 -1.8 -1.6 -3.8 -8.4 -8.0 -6.6 -5.8 -4.1 -3.5 -2.9 -3.0 -2.8 -2.7
MBA esan
Europa: Pequeño Margen de Política Fiscal :
OECD Gobierno General: Deuda Pública Bruta (% PBI),
Fuente OECD, Economic Outlook, July 2017
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia 28.4 27.1 26.1 24.5 21.8 22.1 21.9 20.8 20.4 21.5 27.1 30.3 33.9 37.3 38.1 42.1 44.2 46.6 46.9 46.0
Austria 70.7 70.5 71.6 75.0 73.7 73.0 80.4 77.7 74.6 80.1 92.4 96.1 96.6 102.9 99.0 106.8 106.2 106.1 102.7 100.9
Belgium1 126.5 120.3 119.0 118.1 114.6 110.2 108.0 100.1 93.8 101.1 109.5 107.8 110.4 120.3 118.5 129.8 126.9 127.7 125.9 124.6
Canada 92.5 84.7 85.4 83.6 80.1 76.2 75.8 74.6 70.6 71.5 83.9 86.3 89.1 92.9 90.1 92.3 98.4 99.4 99.5 99.5
Czech Republic 23.5 24.0 28.0 30.2 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.0 30.7 34.6 41.4 46.3 48.9 58.4 58.1 56.9 53.9 49.7 48.5 47.2
Denmark 67.1 60.5 58.3 58.1 56.1 52.3 45.1 40.5 34.6 41.9 49.3 53.4 60.1 60.6 56.7 59.0 53.1 52.2 52.9 53.1
Estonia 10.8 6.8 6.7 7.6 8.4 8.6 8.2 8.0 7.3 8.4 12.6 12.0 9.6 13.2 13.7 14.1 13.0 13.1 13.0 13.4
Finland 53.0 50.9 48.2 48.0 49.5 49.6 46.4 43.9 40.1 38.8 49.5 55.9 57.1 63.8 64.5 71.4 74.2 75.9 79.1 81.8
France 73.5 71.9 70.9 74.6 78.5 80.2 81.7 76.9 75.6 81.6 93.2 96.9 100.7 110.4 110.9 120.2 121.1 123.5 124.9 125.7
Germany 60.6 59.5 58.7 61.1 64.5 67.7 70.2 68.2 64.1 68.2 75.5 84.6 84.4 88.2 83.1 83.6 79.3 76.6 73.5 71.0
Greece 96.6 113.2 116.8 116.1 112.0 113.8 113.9 116.3 114.2 118.8 135.3 127.3 110.2 166.5 182.8 182.8 183.9 183.0 178.4 174.1
Hungary 66.6 60.9 58.9 59.6 60.6 64.3 67.3 70.5 71.3 75.1 84.1 85.9 94.8 97.4 95.5 97.9 96.4 96.8 96.0 94.3
Iceland 43.2 40.4 44.8 40.9 39.9 34.8 26.6 32.1 30.2 70.5 85.4 90.8 97.5 95.3 87.2 79.9 73.0 62.3 61.0 59.3
Ireland 49.8 38.4 35.6 34.3 33.1 31.6 31.9 28.1 28.1 48.3 68.7 85.2 112.6 131.8 134.3 124.1 92.7 91.0 90.3 87.6
Israel 89.6 79.6 83.7 90.3 93.0 91.3 88.2 80.1 73.0 71.9 74.6 70.7 68.8 68.3 67.0 66.0 64.1 62.2 62.4 62.1
Italy 123.9 118.8 118.2 117.0 114.3 116.3 118.9 116.3 111.7 114.6 127.4 126.2 119.6 138.4 145.5 158.4 159.6 158.1 157.4 156.2
Japan2 122.7 132.3 137.7 145.1 152.7 157.1 156.7 154.5 154.4 159.1 177.0 181.4 196.9 205.7 208.6 214.6 219.3 222.2 225.9 227.9
Korea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 29.4 31.6 33.5 36.1 38.5 40.5 43.7 45.7 45.6 45.3 45.5
Latvia 14.6 14.5 16.0 15.9 16.9 17.7 14.6 14.7 12.9 23.2 42.0 53.3 48.1 46.3 44.0 47.1 42.0 45.8 45.7 45.2
Luxembourg 12.9 12.6 12.9 12.8 14.2 15.2 13.8 13.0 12.6 20.0 19.7 26.8 26.5 30.2 30.1 31.6 30.8 27.6 29.9 32.1
Netherlands 67.7 60.5 56.5 57.3 58.3 58.4 57.4 51.3 48.5 61.3 64.1 68.1 72.0 77.8 76.6 81.2 78.1 75.8 73.2 70.2
New Zealand 38.3 36.2 34.3 32.4 30.4 27.7 26.6 26.2 25.1 28.1 33.3 37.0 40.2 41.3 40.3 40.7 40.8 39.7 39.1 38.2
Norway 28.7 32.2 31.3 38.7 48.0 49.9 46.9 57.8 55.6 54.2 48.1 48.4 33.8 35.1 35.4 33.4 39.2 42.7 55.5 59.4
Poland 46.8 45.4 43.7 55.0 55.5 53.1 54.7 54.4 51.1 53.4 56.7 61.0 61.2 64.4 65.0 70.0 69.4 71.9 72.7 73.6
Portugal 62.5 62.0 63.5 66.8 70.6 76.7 80.0 79.4 78.1 82.8 96.1 104.1 108.4 139.0 143.0 153.0 150.7 148.0 146.2 144.2
Slovak Republic 52.6 57.9 56.6 49.4 47.5 45.1 38.4 36.2 34.8 33.8 42.5 47.4 50.0 58.3 61.2 60.5 59.3 59.1 58.8 57.3
Slovenia .. .. 33.0 34.0 33.5 34.3 33.4 33.3 29.1 28.4 42.5 46.8 50.5 60.9 80.5 99.5 102.5 97.8 97.0 95.7
Spain 67.9 65.2 60.6 59.3 54.4 52.5 50.0 45.7 41.7 47.2 62.0 66.8 77.9 92.5 105.7 118.5 116.8 117.2 116.9 116.1
Sweden 67.5 57.3 59.0 58.7 57.8 57.4 58.2 51.7 46.6 46.7 48.4 46.0 46.2 46.4 48.6 55.7 53.9 52.6 50.5 48.3
Switzerland 52.6 52.7 52.5 60.1 58.5 59.7 57.1 50.7 50.5 48.7 46.5 44.9 45.1 45.9 45.5 45.7 45.4 44.7 44.1 43.5
United Kingdom 47.8 48.8 44.8 47.4 46.7 49.5 51.1 50.8 51.4 63.4 77.0 89.3 103.5 107.2 102.9 113.4 112.7 123.2 122.9 122.6
United States 58.6 52.8 52.7 55.1 58.3 65.5 65.1 64.0 64.4 73.4 86.7 95.4 99.7 103.1 105.1 105.0 105.4 107.1 107.8 109.2
Euro area 78.6 76.2 74.8 76.1 76.8 78.2 79.2 75.6 72.0 77.3 88.1 92.4 93.7 104.6 105.8 112.3 MAARE
110.0 14
109.2 107.9 106.4
Total OECD 71.4 69.2 69.1 71.4 73.3 76.8 76.9 74.9 73.6 79.2 90.6 96.6 101.0 107.3 108.6 111.9 112.2 113.5 113.5 113.5
MBA esan
OECD Gobierno General: Deuda Pública Neta (% PBI),
Fuente OECD, Economic Outlook, July 2017
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia -21.7 -21.2 -19.0 -21.0 -24.6 -26.7 -27.5 -29.9 -31.4 -30.3 -27.7 -23.0 -16.5 -13.8 -15.4 -13.0 -14.5 -14.8 -12.5 -10.7
Austria 35.7 34.8 33.8 37.5 36.0 37.9 44.7 42.3 39.5 43.9 49.9 51.5 52.9 57.9 56.6 59.1 57.1 57.0 53.5 51.8
Belgium1 106.6 100.9 98.5 99.4 96.1 90.9 89.0 80.7 74.2 76.7 83.0 81.8 83.6 92.2 90.6 100.3 98.0 98.1 96.4 95.0
Canada 53.8 45.8 44.3 43.7 39.6 35.1 30.7 27.3 23.8 23.5 29.1 31.1 34.2 35.0 30.9 30.8 30.0 31.3 31.4 31.4
Czech Republic -28.3 -25.4 -23.4 -15.1 -7.0 -10.2 -11.5 -11.7 -14.5 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 9.2 16.6 18.1 20.1 20.0 18.5 17.3 16.0
Denmark 30.6 25.5 22.0 21.1 18.4 14.2 9.5 1.1 -4.6 -6.7 -5.9 -3.3 1.1 6.6 3.9 4.5 4.4 3.3 4.1 4.3
Estonia -39.3 -30.2 -29.1 -28.6 -29.5 -31.9 -32.1 -30.8 -28.5 -25.9 -28.8 -36.0 -33.4 -31.4 -31.4 -30.8 -42.0 -43.6 -40.4 -37.4
Finland -48.4 -30.1 -30.4 -30.2 -36.8 -44.7 -56.0 -66.5 -69.7 -50.0 -59.6 -61.8 -48.8 -49.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -50.1 -47.4
France 31.0 32.4 34.6 39.5 41.6 43.1 41.0 35.5 32.2 42.7 50.2 54.6 59.6 67.4 66.3 74.3 76.1 79.1 80.5 81.3
Germany 31.4 31.0 33.1 36.9 40.0 44.0 46.3 44.6 39.4 41.3 45.8 47.7 49.1 49.5 45.4 45.4 42.1 40.1 38.3 36.3
Greece 68.0 87.5 90.7 92.3 86.3 85.9 82.6 85.6 81.0 91.3 102.7 92.1 73.3 105.2 124.9 135.3 147.9 147.1 142.4 138.2
Hungary 34.2 32.8 32.0 36.2 37.1 41.3 44.3 50.9 52.2 50.4 58.2 60.4 62.1 69.2 69.6 70.3 66.4 65.7 64.9 63.2
Ireland 25.7 14.7 11.3 12.9 10.8 7.7 6.0 1.2 -0.2 12.4 25.4 48.0 61.5 78.9 81.6 80.4 59.5 57.8 55.9 53.2
Italy 102.1 96.3 96.9 96.5 93.2 94.5 95.8 92.3 88.9 91.9 102.7 101.2 95.8 111.8 118.3 130.4 132.5 130.6 129.9 128.6
Japan2 40.3 46.8 52.4 60.3 66.7 70.4 66.7 65.7 71.0 81.0 94.0 101.5 113.2 118.0 117.3 115.0 122.5 125.5 129.2 131.1
Korea3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Latvia -7.8 -8.2 -10.9 -10.9 -7.7 -5.3 -4.8 -3.6 -3.8 -0.9 6.1 14.2 15.4 12.9 14.6 16.1 18.0 17.5 17.4 16.9
Luxembourg -48.3 -51.2 -55.1 -54.5 -53.8 -50.5 -49.2 -51.6 -54.6 -51.3 -55.7 -51.2 -45.2 -49.6 -50.8 -50.3 -49.6 -50.4 -48.2 -45.9
Netherlands 28.9 28.0 27.5 31.0 32.2 32.9 30.2 27.4 23.8 23.1 27.8 32.4 37.2 39.7 40.2 43.9 43.0 41.2 38.6 35.6
New Zealand 25.0 22.9 20.7 17.2 12.8 8.2 3.7 -1.2 -5.3 -4.9 -0.9 1.6 4.4 6.6 6.1 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.4 3.4
Norway -61.0 -70.8 -87.2 -81.7 -96.3 -104.4 -122.3 -135.3 -139.8 -124.2 -154.4 -164.1 -160.1 -169.0 -207.5 -249.4 -284.4 -289.0 -276.1 -272.3
Poland 13.2 15.2 18.1 21.6 25.5 21.7 22.6 21.0 15.8 15.7 20.7 26.7 30.4 35.1 37.6 42.0 42.0 43.1 43.8 44.8
Portugal 36.2 37.8 40.0 44.4 47.2 53.9 55.9 54.7 55.0 59.6 70.3 71.0 66.6 90.6 99.0 108.9 109.4 104.5 102.7 100.7
Slovak Republic 0.9 13.1 10.6 0.9 1.5 4.8 10.2 14.5 13.5 15.3 22.3 28.0 32.8 31.2 32.7 35.5 35.3 35.7 35.5 34.0
Slovenia .. .. -15.3 -13.9 -9.3 -9.8 -8.8 -10.2 -18.3 -7.2 -2.1 -0.6 2.4 9.0 14.8 22.5 25.9 29.3 28.5 27.1
Spain 46.8 43.4 40.6 39.2 36.0 33.5 28.6 22.1 17.4 22.3 33.8 39.5 48.1 59.1 69.7 81.9 81.7 84.0 83.7 82.9
Sweden 9.9 2.2 -2.3 4.0 0.8 -1.3 -6.8 -16.7 -21.0 -15.4 -22.9 -24.3 -26.8 -29.2 -29.3 -28.3 -27.6 -29.5 -29.1 -28.8
Switzerland 10.9 7.3 6.8 12.4 12.5 14.4 13.4 10.0 8.8 12.0 7.7 10.4 9.4 7.0 7.6 2.0 5.9 5.3 4.7 4.0
United Kingdom 30.3 29.3 26.5 29.3 28.4 30.8 31.4 31.8 32.4 39.2 49.1 54.6 70.2 71.9 70.2 81.1 82.4 92.8 92.5 92.2
United States 38.9 34.2 33.5 36.1 39.5 47.0 46.5 45.1 44.9 51.1 62.7 70.2 76.6 80.0 81.4 80.8 80.4 81.3 82.7 84.2
Euro area 46.8 46.0 46.6 49.0 49.2 50.4 49.8 45.8 41.5 46.4 53.9 56.1 57.9 65.3 66.2 72.0 MAARE 14
71.0 70.6 69.7 68.3
Total OECD 37.1 35.2 35.3 38.1 39.8 43.0 41.6 39.2 37.8 42.6 51.0 55.8 60.9 65.4 65.6 67.3 67.9 68.8 69.3 69.6
MBA esan
LA: Volatilidad
• Pude imponer costos a la economía, relacionado al
valor crediticio (se deteriora valor de préstamos)
• Acreedores: no solo preocupados del tamaño
del déficit, sino que sea difícil financiarlo
debido a la poca penetración financiera
• Por ello es que históricamente la eliminación del
déficit cuando gasto de gobierno es pequeño, lleva
a grandes ajustes en ingresos o gastos
MAARE 14
Fuente: CEPAL, Balance Preliminar de las Economías de AL, 2017
MBA esan
LA: Gastos Fiscales (% del PBI)
MAARE 14
Fuente: CEPAL, Balance Preliminar de las Economías de AL, 2017
MBA esan
LA: Posibilidad de Hacer Política Fiscal Anticlícica
Poca Deuda Bruta Sector Publico NF (% del PBI)
MAARE 14
Fuente: CEPAL, Balance Preliminar de las Economías de AL, 2017
MBA esan
Sub-Investment
Grade
Ba1 BB+ BB+
Ba2 BB BB
Ba3 BB- BB-
B1 B+ B+
B2 B B
B3 B- B-
Caa1 C+ C+
Caa2 C C
Caa3 C- C-
ARGENTINA B3 B B B B-
ECUADOR B3 B- B - -
PARAGUAY Ba1 BB BB - -
PERÚ A3 BBB+ BBB+ Disc. BBB+
URUGUAY Baa2 BBB BBB- BBB(L) -
Empresas y Gobierno
MAARE 14
MBA esan
LA: Inédita Política fiscal anti-cíclica y expansión de agregados
monetarios 2008-2010
Conclusiones
• Históricamente, las recesiones han sido mas
fuertes en Latinoamérica que en Europa o EEUU
Conclusiones
• Fortalecimiento del valor del crédito es crítico
• Valor del crédito: esta relacionado al valor y a la
percepción del mercado
• En la parte fiscal, el problema histórico de LA ha sido
el acceso precario a las fuentes no inflacionarias de
crédito y la inmediata necesidad de financiar los ajustes
• Fundamental es la Reforma Administrativa y Fiscal
para crear y ganar credibilidad (transparencia del
gasto) y mejorar calidad de gasto