Methodology

DATA COLLECTION
• The survey was conducted through the Ipsos online I-Say panel among n=2501 Ontario home
owners in the 416 and 905 regions aged 18+, including an over-sample of n=1000 recent buyers
who have purchased within the last year.

FIELD DATES
• The survey was fielded from November 6th to November 21st, 2017.

ACCURACY
• Data is weighted according to Statistics Canada census data by age, gender and region to
ensure the data accurately reflects the distribution of Ontarians within this region. The
precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, results are
accurate to within +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would
have been had all GTA home owners been polled. Credibility intervals are wider among
subsets of the population, including the 416 (n=1170, +/-3.3) and the 905 (n=1331, +/- 3.1).
© 2017 Ipsos 1
 Living in Property or Investment
• Nearly all home owners continue to say their most recent purchase was for them to live in rather than as an investment to rent out.

May 2017
November 2017

98% 98%
Live in Property 97% 98%
98% 97%

2% 2%
Investment, Rented Out 3% 2%
Total
2% 2%
416
905
0% *
Investment, Vacant 0% 0%

0% 0%

A2. Do you live in the property or is it an investment?

© 2017 Ipsos Base: Total Sample November 2017 (n=2753): 416 (n=1219), 905 (n=1534); May 2017 (n=2019): 416 (n=959), 905 (n=1060) 2
Reasons For Not Moving in Past Year
• Most home owners who don’t plan to list their home for sale in the next year (82%) say there’s no reason for them to move as they like where they live.
Smaller numbers point to moving costs, planned renovations, costs from Land Transfer Taxes, or recent policy changes as being behind their decision to stay
put. Moving costs and Land Transfer Tax costs are more of a factor for those in the 416 than in the 905.
November 2017
82%
I like my current home – no reason to move 81%
84%
11%
Moving costs 14%
8%
11%
Decided to renovate existing home 11%
10%
5%
Upfront costs associated with Land Transfer Taxes 7%
3%
Recent policy changes made by the federal 5%
government, including more stringent mortgage 6%
qualification requirements 4%
7%
Other 7%
7%

2. Why have you not moved in the last year?

© 2017 Ipsos Base: Current Home Is More Than 12 Months Old November 2017 (n=1500), 416 (n=678); 905 (n=822) 3
Market Year in Review & Outlook Report 2018

Steering the Way to Housing & Transportation Diversity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
Market Year in Review & Outlook Report 2018

Steering the Way to Housing & Transportation Diversity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
Market Year in Review & Outlook Report 2018

Steering the Way to Housing & Transportation Diversity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe
 Fifth Best Sales on Record in 2017
TREB MLS® Sales - Annual
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 7
• 15% Foreign Buyers Tax

• Rent Control

• Discussions about Potential Solutions to

Supply Issues
 Average TREB MLS® Price Up in 2017, but…
TREB MLS® Average Price - Annual
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board TREB Economic Summit, January 30, 2018 9
Toronto Real Estate Board
Annual Average Price Growth

10%
15%
25%
30%
40%

20%
35%

0%
5%

-15%
-10%

-20%
-5%
Jan. '89
Jan. '90
Jan. '91
Jan. '92
Jan. '93
Jan. '94
Jan. '95
Jan. '96
Jan. '97

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Jan. '98
Jan. '99
Jan. '00
Jan. '01
Jan. '02
Jan. '03
TREB MLS® Average Annual Price Growth

Jan. '04
Jan. '05
Jan. '06
Jan. '07
Jan. '08
Jan. '09
Jan. '10
Jan. '11
Jan. '12
Jan. '13
Jan. '14
Jan. '15
Jan. '16
Jan. '17
33%

0.7%
Annual Price Growth has Moderated

Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018

10
 Diverging Trends in Home Price Growth
MLS® Home Price Index Year-Over-Year Growth
36 Single Family Detached Apartment
32
Year-Over-Year % Change

28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 11
Methodology
DATA COLLECTION
• The survey was conducted through the Ipsos online I-Say panel among n=1000 Ontario
residents in the 416 and 905 regions aged 18+ who are likely homebuyers (very likely or
somewhat likely). In order to gather a sample of n=1000 likely homebuyers, a total Ontario
sample of n=3974 had to be interviewed.

FIELD DATES
• The survey was fielded from November 3rd to November 13th, 2017.

ACCURACY
• Data is weighted according to Statistics Canada census data by age, gender and region to
ensure the data accurately reflects the distribution of Ontarians within this region. The
precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, results are
accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would
have been had every Ontario resident in the 416 and 905 regions aged 18+ been polled.

© 2017 Ipsos 13
Likelihood To Purchase A Home
• One in four GTA residents (26%) claim they are at least somewhat likely to purchase a home in which to live over the next year. Seasonality is in
evidence here – while likelihood to buy is down 9 points from May, it is relatively on par with intentions stated in December 2016 (when 28% were
likely to buy) and November 2015 (when 30% said they were likely). Intent to buy is directionally stronger among 416 residents than for those living in
the 905.
Nov 2017
416 35%
905

10%
Very likely 11% T2B - LIKELY
30%
9%
26%
28%
26%
28%
16% 25%
Somewhat likely 17%
16% 13%

24%
Not very likely 24% 12%
10% 10%
23%

50%
Not at all likely 48% Nov-15 Dec-16 May-17 Nov-17
52%
Likely (T2B) Very Likely
1. How likely are you to purchase a home in which to live over the next year?
Base: All respondents. Nov 2017 (n=3974); 416 (n=1645); 905 (n=2329). May 2017 (n=3981); 416 (n=1649); 905 (n=2332). Dec (n=3,774); 416 (n=1,475); 905 (n=2,299). Nov
© 2017 Ipsos 2015 (n=3451); 416 (n=1518); 905 (n=1933); 14
REALTOR® Usage: Future Home
• A majority of likely home buyers in the GTA (82%, +1 pt) say they’ll be using the services of a REALTOR® to help find and purchase the home. Among first-time home buyers, this
rises to 84%, continuing a gradual upward trend in play since 2015.

YES
Yes No
Dec 2016 Nov 2015 Jun 2015

Nov 2017 82% 19% 81% 81% 79%

416 80% 20% 77% 78% 80%

905 83% 17% 86% 84% 79%

First Time Home Buyer 84% 16% 81% 81% 80%

13. Will you be using a REALTOR® to help you find and purchase the home?
Base: Likely to Purchase. Nov (n=1,000); 416 (n=472); 905 (n=528) First Time Home Buyers (n=360). Dec 2016 (n=1,001); 416 (n=324); 905 (n=369). Nov 2015 (n=1000); 416
© 2017 Ipsos (n=450); 905 (n=400); First Time Home Buyers (n=360); June 2015 (n=768), 416 (n=347); 905 (n=312); First Time Home Buyers (n=360) 15
Reasons for Not Planning to Purchase a Home in Next Year
• Those who aren’t planning to buy a home are most likely to say they like where they currently like (29%, +7 pts), or that they already own a home
(19%, +1 pt). Financial issues are a factor for two in ten (19%, unchanged).
• Residents of the 416 remain more likely than those in the 905 to say financial issues are preventing them from buying, while 905 residents are more
inclined to say they like their current home.

Total
2017 Nov

Like my current home/ location 29%

Already own a home (any mentions) 19%

Cost is more prohibitive in the 416:
Financial issues/ no savings/ cannot afford 19%

Cost/ too expensive to buy new home 9% Financial issues/no savings/cannot afford:
No need/ not interested (unspecified) 7% 416: 26%
Don't plan on moving/ selling property 9% 905: 15%
Age factor (too old/ too young) 5%
Cost/too expensive to buy a home:
Retired/ will retire soon 3% 416: 11%
I rent/ prefer to rent 2% 905: 7%
Not ready yet 1%

Other 2%
2. Why are you not planning on purchasing a home over the next year?
Base: Not likely to purchase a home in which to live over the next year. November 2017 (n=2923); 416 (n=1147); 905 (n=1776). May 2017 (n=2019); 416 (n=981); 905
© 2017 Ipsos (n=1038). Dec 2016 (n=2,725); 416 (n=1,005); 905 (n=1,720). Nov 2015 (n=2428); 416 (n=1014); 905 (n=1414) 16
Did Recent Policy Changes Impact Your Decision NOT to Purchase?
• The behavioural impact of policy changes by the Ontario provincial government remain stable, and are consistent across regions: most GTA residents who don’t plan on buying
a home in the next year (85%, +1 pt) say the changes didn’t influence their decision not to buy. This leaves 15% who say it did influence their decision, but most (14%, -1 pt) say
it wasn’t the only factor.

2017 Nov May 2017

1% 1%
Yes, if not for these policy changes, I would have purchased a
1% 1%
home over the next year
2% Total 1%
416
14% 905 9%
Yes, but this was not the only factor influencing my decision
not to purchase a home over the next year 15% 10%
13% 9%

85% 89%
No 84% 90%
85% 89%

Q2B. Have recent policy changes made by the Ontario Provincial Government and its agencies influenced your decision NOT to purchase a home over the next year? These
changes include a tax on foreign buyers, rent controls, measures to increase housing supply and measures to address tax avoidance.
© 2017 Ipsos Base: All Respondents. November 2017 (n=2914); 416 (n=1143); 905 (n=1771). May 2017 (n=2016); 416 (n=979); 905 (n=1037). 17
Buying Property to Live in or as an Investment
• Those who do plan on buying a home are most likely to be looking for a place to live (84%, +9 pts), rather than an investment property to rent (15%, -10 pts) or to leave vacant
(1%, unchanged). While further tracking is needed to establish a pattern, there also appears to be a seasonal effect in the extent to which people think about buying investment
properties once the peak season is over.
• Intentions are stable across the GTA, with no differences between those living in the 416 and 905.

2017 Nov
May 2017

84% 75%
To live in 84% 77%
84% 72%

15% 25%
As an investment to rent to tenants 15% 23%
Total
15% 416 27%
905
1% 1%
As an investment to leave vacant 1% 0%
1% 1%

Q3A. Do you plan to purchase the property to live in or as an investment?

© 2017 Ipsos Base: Likely To Purchase November 2017 (n=1000); 416 (n=472); 905 (n=528). May 2017 (n=1376); 416 (n=781); 905 (n=595) 18
Incidence of First-Time Home Buyers
• First-time buyers remain fewer in numbers (41%) compared to a year ago. This suggests that the recent policy changes appear to be having a lasting impact on first-time buyers,
as they continue to represent a smaller share of the buying activity, confirming May’s data.
• As seen in previous waves, first-time buyers are more prevalent in the 416 than in the 905.

YES
May Dec Nov Jun
2017 2016 2015 2015
Yes No

Nov 2017 41% 59% 40% 53% 49% 47%

416 46% 54% 46% 64% 56% 52%

905 37% 63% 33% 44% 43% 43%

3. Will you be a first-time home buyer?

Base: Likely To Purchase. Nov 2017 (n=1,000); 416 (n=472); 905 (n=528). May 2017 (n=1376); 416 (n=781); 905 (n=595). Dec 2016 (n=1,001); 416 (n=455); 905 (n=546). Nov
© 2017 Ipsos 2015 (n=1000); 416 (n=490); 905 (n=510); June 2015 (n=768); 416 (n=387); 905 (n=381). 19
Type of Home Most Likely to Purchase
• Detached houses remain the most desirable type of home to buy, with nearly half (47%, +10 pts) of all likely homebuyers across the GTA saying they’re aiming to buy one.
Likelihood to buy a detached house remains strongest for those who intend to buy in the 905. While 39% of those looking to buy in the 416 also want to buy a detached home,
nearly three in ten (27%) are likely to opt for condos. Appetite for buying condos in the 416 is down since May and compared to most other waves. In short, the May data
appears to be a bit of a blip in the immediate aftermath of the new mortgage qualification rules.

*Note: 416 and 905 on this slide

indicates the region in which Nov 2017 May 2017 Dec 2016 Nov 2015 Jun 2015
respondent intends to buy, not
where they currently live
416 416 416 416 416
905 905 905 905 905

47% 37% 48% 54% 52%

Detached house 39% 36% 37% 41% 35%
54% 44% 55% 61% 62%

13% 11% 12% 10% 10%

Semi-detached house 14% 15% 13% 10% 13%
12% 9% 13% 11% 10%

16% 13% 15% 17% 15%

Town/Row house 18% 12% 14% 20% 19%
15% 14% 16% 17% 15%

22% 38% 23% 18% 22%

Condominium apartment 27% 36% 34% 28% 34%
18% 32% 15% 11% 12%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Other 2% 1% 2% 1% 0%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

6. What type of home are you most likely to purchase?

Base: Likely To Purchase. Nov 2017 (n=100; 416 (n=472); 905 (n=528). May 2017 (n=1376); 416 (n=338); 905 (n=327). Dec 2016 (n=1,001); 416 (n=324); 905 (n=369). Nov
© 2017 Ipsos 2015 (n=1000); 416 (n=450); 905 (n=400); June 2015 (n=768), 416 (n=347); 905 (n=312); 20
COST AND
MORTGAGE RATES
© 2017 Ipsos 21
Future Down Payment Percentage
(Among Those Who Will Need a Mortgage)
• Those who will use a mortgage expect still expect to put about 31% of their purchase price in a down payment towards a mortgage, with no significant differences noted
between the 416 and the 905.

MEAN
Nov 2015 Dec 2016 Nov 2017
40% Total 27.8% 27.6% 31.4%
35% 416 28.7% 25.8% 31.7%
30% 905 27.2% 30.8% 31.1%
st
1 Time Home Buyers
25% 25.3% 23.9% 27.4%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1% - 5% - 10% - 15% - 20% - 25% - 30% - 40% - 50% - 60% - 70% - 80% - 90% -
0%
4.9% 9.9% 14.9% 19.9% 24.9% 29.9% 39.9% 49.9% 59.9% 69.9% 79.9% 89.9% 99.9%
Nov 2017 0% 1% 4% 9% 4% 18% 9% 7% 5% 8% 2% 3% 3% 2%

8. What percentage of your purchase price will be covered by a down payment towards a mortgage?
Base: Planning to use mortgage with home purchase. Nov 2017 (n=1000); 416 (n=176); 905 (n=109); First Time Home Buyers (n=285). Dec 2016 (n=1001); 416 (n=324); 905
© 2017 Ipsos (n=369); First Time Home Buyers (n=524). Nov 2015 (n=825); 416 (n=379); 905 (n=344); First Time Home Buyers (n=436) 22
Source of Down Payment
• Nearly half (45%, +1 pt) of the average down payment will come from savings, whether from outside of RRSPs (32%) or within (13%). While 29% on average will come from
equity from buyers’ current home, first-time homebuyers are more likely to rely on gifts from family and friends (16%) and other sources (22%).

Nov 2017 First-Time Homebuyers

15% 22%
32% 35%

9%
29%

13% 16%
11% 18%

Dec 2016 Nov 2015

0
Savings outside of RRSP 31% 31%
Savings within RRSP 13% 13%
Gift from family/friends 12% 12%
Equity from current home 25% 26%
Other 19% 19%

9. What will be your source(s) of down payment? Please indicate the share of your down payment that will come from each of the sources below. Base: Planning to use
© 2017 Ipsos mortgage with home purchase. Nov 2017 (n=741) First-time Homebuyers (n=336); Dec 2016 (n=762); Nov 2015 (n=825); First-time Homebuyers (n=444) 23
Affordability of Mortgage Payments After 2-Point Rate Increase
• Two in ten likely (20%) home buyers in the GTA say they’re not confident they could continue to afford their mortgage payments if the interest rate on their mortgage were to
increase by 2 percentage points from its current rate. This perception is highly comparable across the 416 and 905.

T2B
(Very/Somewhat
Confident)

Nov-17 34% 46% 16% 4% 80%

416 33% 48% 17% 3% 81%

905 34% 45% 16% 5% 79%

Very confident Somewhat confident Not very confident Not at all confident

11D. How confident are you that you’d continue to be able to afford your mortgage payments if the interest rate on your mortgage increased by 2 percentage points?
© 2017 Ipsos Base: Will Use a Mortgage. Nov 2017 (n=741); 416 (n=369); 905 (372). 24
Qualifying for Mortgage at Higher Rate
• Three in four (74%) likely home buyers say they’d still qualify for a mortgage at a rate 2 percentage points higher than current rates – dropping to seven in ten (71%) – while one
in four (26%) think they wouldn’t qualify. Among first-time home buyers, this rises to 29% who don’t think they’d qualify if rates rose by just 2 points.

Nov 2017

Yes Nov 2017

74% YES NO
Total 74% 26%
416 72% 28%
905 76% 24%
1st Time Home Buyers 71% 29%

No
26%

10C. If you had a qualify for a mortgage at 2 percentage points higher than the current rates, do you think you’d still qualify for a mortgage at that rate?
© 2017 Ipsos Base: Have/Had Mortgage. Nov 2017(n=741); 416 (n=369); 905 (n=372); First-Time Buyers (n=336). 25
Federal Government Mortgage Policy Change
• Recent changes to federal policy on mortgage qualification requirement are having more of an impact on homebuyers compared to a year ago. Three in four (76%) say the
changes have influenced an aspect of their planned purchase (vs. 69% in December 2016). Most likely to be impacted are the price (42%, +9 pts), type (34%, +6 pts) and
location (30%, +7 pts) of the home they intend to purchase.

Nov 2017 Dec 2016

42% 33%
Price of home you intend to purchase 44% 30%
39% 35%

34% 28%
Type of home you intend to purchase 37% 30%
31% 25%

Location of home you intend to purchase 30% 23%

33% 22%
27% 24%
Total
27% 24%
Size of your down payment 25% 416 26%
30% 22%

24%
905 18%
Type of mortgage you will use 23% 21%
25% 16%

21% 18%
Length of mortgage term you will use 21% 17%
22% 19%

24% 31%
None of the above 21% 27%
27% 34%

Q.12B Did the recent policy changes made by the federal government, including more stringent mortgage qualification requirements, influence any of the following?
© 2017 Ipsos Base: Have/Had Mortgage: Nov 2017(n=741); 416 (n=369); 905 (372). Dec 2016 (n=762); 416 (n=367); 905 (n=395) 26
 Market Drivers Summary
TREB MLS® Sales Annual Price Growth

• Ontario Fair Housing Plan • More Balance

• OSFI Stress Test • Compositional Shift

• Higher Borrowing Costs • OSFI Stress Test

• Increased Immigration • Inventory Still Quite Low

• Tight Labour Market • Tight Condo Market

• Tight Rental Market

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 27
 Impact of Government Policy on Sales
TREB MLS® Sales
Fair Housing Plan
(Seasonally Adjusted) announced
11,000 OSFI stress test
announced
10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

Source: TREB; CREA Seasonal Adjustment

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 28
 Market Drivers Summary
TREB MLS® Sales Annual Price Growth

• Ontario Fair Housing Plan • More Balance

• OSFI Stress Test • Compositional Shift

• Higher Borrowing Costs • OSFI Stress Test

• Increased Immigration • Inventory Still Quite Low

• Tight Labour Market • Tight Condo Market

• Tight Rental Market

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 29
 Monthly Payment for Qualification Markedly Higher
Monthly Payments for Discounted and Posted Rates

$6,000 +$960
$5,000
+$683
$4,000 +$562
$3,000 +$447
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Posted

Posted

Posted

Posted
Discounted

Discounted

Discounted

Discounted
Detached Semi-Detached Townhouse Condominium
Apartment
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 30
 Actual Borrowing Costs Heading Up As Well
Government of Canada Five Year Bond Yield

5-Year Government of Canada Bond Yield

3.0%
TREB Forward Rate Estimation
2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

Source: Bank of Canada; TREB Forward Rate Estimation

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 31
 Market Drivers Summary
TREB MLS® Sales Annual Price Growth

• Ontario Fair Housing Plan • More Balance

• OSFI Stress Test • Compositional Shift

• Higher Borrowing Costs • OSFI Stress Test

• Increased Immigration • Inventory Still Quite Low

• Tight Labour Market • Tight Condo Market

• Tight Rental Market

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 32
 Unemployment Rate Very Low in GTA
Toronto CMA Unemployment Rate (SA)

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%
Jan-96

Jan-00

Jan-04

Jan-08

Jan-12

Jan-16
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95

Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99

Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03

Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07

Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11

Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15

Jan-17
Jan-18
Source: Statistics Canada

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 33
 GTA Vacancy Rates Fell in 2017
Purpose Built Apartments Condominium Apartments

2016: 1.4 % 2016: 1.0 %

2017: 1.1 % 2017: 0.7 %

Source: CMHC

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 34
 TREB MLS® Sales Forecast Range
TREB MLS® Sales Scenarios for 2018
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000 Sales 2018 Low Forcast 2018 High Forecast

40,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 35
 Market Drivers Summary
TREB MLS® Sales Annual Price Growth

• Ontario Fair Housing Plan • More Balance

• OSFI Stress Test • Compositional Shift

• Higher Borrowing Costs • OSFI Stress Test

• Increased Immigration • Inventory Still Quite Low

• Tight Labour Market • Tight Condo Market

• Tight Rental Market

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 36
 Likelihood of Listing Home For Sale
• Four in ten (40%, +10pts) GTA home owners claim it’s likely they’ll list their home for sale within the next year. Intentions to list are significantly higher in the
416 than in the 905 area of the GTA.
• It’s important to note that the uptick in the proportion who are “very likely” is only 2 points; the majority of the change is among those who say they’re
somewhat likely to sell – up from 18% to 27%.

November 2017 May 2017

T2B – T2B –
14% 12%
LIKELY LIKELY
Very likely 16% 15%
12% 40% 10% 30%
43% 32%
27% 38% 18% 28%
Somewhat likely 28% 17%
26% Nov 2017 18%
416
30% 26%
905
Not very likely 29% 26%
30% 26%

30% 44%
Not at all likely 28% 42%
32% 46%

A3. How likely are you to list your home for sale over the next year?
© 2017 Ipsos Base: Total Sample November 2017 (n=2753): 416 (n=1219); 905 (n=1534); May 2017 (n=2019): 416 (n=959); 905 (n=1060) 37
Reasons for Listing Home For Sale in the Next Year
• Home owners who plan to sell are most likely to cite personal reasons (61%) such as looking for a bigger house (18%), downsizing (9%), or moving to a new
neighbourhood as motivating their decision to list their current home. Financial motivations are up 6 points to 28%.

November 2017 May 2017

Personal Reasons (Net) 61% 64%
Changing house size/ moving to a bigger house 18% 30%
Change neighborhood/ city/ province 10% 10%
Downsizing/ moving to a smaller house 9% -
Changes/changes in life/family 5% 3%
Convenience/ close to work/ family/ school 5% 2%
Upgrade/better house 4% 3%
Moving (unspecified) 3% 3%
Buying a new house/ detached property 3% 6%
Retirement 2% 5%
I am not selling it now/ will sell at a later time 2% -
House prices/ value going down 2% -
Buy new place/ update/ something new 1% 3%
Buying another 1% 2%
New condo 1% 1%
Hard to maintain 1% -
I don't like/ want my house 1% -
Mortgage reasons 1% -
Financial Reasons (Net) 28% 22%
Profit/ to make money 14% 9%
Good price in the market 8% 11%
Can not afford the expenses/ taxes too high 4% 1%
Investment/ rental property 3% 2%
Other 3% 8%
Nothing 2% 3%
Don't know 10% 9%

© 2017 Ipsos A4. Why are you planning on listing your home for sale over the next year? 38
Base: Home Sellers November 2017 (n=1109) 416 (n=528); 905 (n=581); May 20017 (n=500)
Did Recent Policy Change Impact Your Decision to List
• Policy changes are having more of an impact on decisions to list than was the case six months ago. Six in ten (62%, +18 pts) GTA home owners who are
planning to list their home for sale within the next year say the recent provincial policy changes influenced their decision. Four in ten (42%, +13 pts) say it
was a factor among others, while two in ten (20%, +5 pts) say they wouldn’t have considered selling their home had it not been for these changes.
• Nearly four in ten (38%, - 19pts) say the policy changes haven’t impacted them. Home sellers in the 905 are more likely to say they weren’t impacted.
November 2017 May 2017

Yes, if not for these policy changes, I would 20% 15%

not be planning on listing my home for sale 22% 17%
over the next year 18% Total 13%
416
Yes, but this was not the only factor 42% 905 29%
influencing my decision to list my home for 44% 31%
sale over the next year 40% 27%

38% 57%
No 33% 52%
42% 59%

*Wording of question varies

slightly between waves.
A5 Have recent policy changes made by the Ontario Provincial Government and its agencies influenced your decision to list your
property for sale over the next year?
© 2017 Ipsos Base: Home Sellers November 2017 (n=1109): 416 (n=528), 905 (n=581); May 2017 (n=510): 416 (n=231), 905 (n=279) 39
Plan Once Property is Sold
• Once their current home is sold, three in four sellers (74%, -4 pts) plan to buy another property in which to live. The other one in four will, for the time being
at least, exit the property market: one in ten (11%, +3 pts) say they’ll move into rented accommodation, while smaller numbers will live with family (7%), in
an assisted living facility (4%) or some other arrangement (4%).

November 2017 May 2017

74% 78%
Purchase another property in which to live 69% 77%
77% 79%

11% 8%
Rent a property in which to live 14% 8%
9% Total 9%
416
7% 905 6%
Live with parents or another family member 7% 8%
7% 4%

4% 4%
Move to a retirement residence, assisted living or
5% 4%
similar 3% 4%
4% 3%
Other 4% 2%
4%
4%

A8. What do you plan to do once you sell your property?

© 2017 Ipsos Base: Home Sellers November 2017 (n=1109): 416 (n=528), 905 (n=581); May 2017 (n=505): 416 (n=228), 905 (n=277) 40
 Months of Inventory Have Increased
TREB MLS® Months of Inventory
(Seasonally Adjusted)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan. '97
Jan. '98
Jan. '99
Jan. '00
Jan. '01
Jan. '02
Jan. '03
Jan. '04
Jan. '05
Jan. '06
Jan. '07
Jan. '08
Jan. '09
Jan. '10
Jan. '11
Jan. '12
Jan. '13
Jan. '14
Jan. '15
Jan. '16
Jan. '17
Jan. '18
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 41
 Annual Price Growth will Moderate
TREB Average Annual Average Price Growth
40% 160%
Average Annual Price Growth 35% Average Annual Price Growth 140%

Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio

30% 120%
25% Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio 100%
20% 80%
15% 60%
10% 40%
5% 20%
0% 0%
-5% -20%
-10% -40%
-15% -60%
Jan-97

Jan-09

Jan-16
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08

Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15

Jan-17
Jan-18
Source: TREB

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 42
 TREB MLS® Average Price Forecast Range
TREB MLS® Average Price Scenarios for 2018
900,000
Average Price 2018 Low Forcast 2018 High Forecast
800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Toronto Real Estate Board Durham Region Economic Summit, March 20, 2018 43