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SDC

SAV

Lesson 4:

Course:
Project Organization
& Implementation

Instructors: Dr. Tran Phuong Trinh


Project Management - 4.2

PROJECT PLANNING AND SCHEDULING


1. Overview
1.1 Project planning
1.2 The major components of planning phase
1.3 Tools of project planning
2. Gantt chart
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Gantt chart advantages and disadvantages
3. Network analysis: CPM and PERT
3.1 Network representation of project
3.2 CPM algorithm
3.3 Uncertainty in time estimates
3.4 PERT method and its criticism

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4. Scheduling with cost and limited resources
4.1 Project budgeting
4.2 Slack management
4.3 Project crashing
4.4 Project resource leveling
4.5 Constrained resource scheduling problem
Required Readings
Avraham: Chapter 7,8,9
Meredith: Chapter 9
So you are going to manage a project - by Tom Conkright
Homework:
See attached pages

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Learning Objectives
After completing this lesson you should be able to:
• discuss project planning and scheduling processes
• use Gantt charts and some popular network
techniques for project planing and sheduling
• discuss advantages and disadvantages of the above
techniques

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1.1 Overview of project planning and


scheduling
Project planning
• Planning: process of anticipating problems, analyzing them, estimating
their likely impacts, and determine actions that will lead to the desired
outcomes, objectives or goals.
• Project planning: a process of determine in advance a course of
actions within a forecasted environment in order to accomplish the
project objectives.

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• Planning is the answering to the following questions:
What must be done?
How it should be done?
Who will do it
By when must it be done?
How much will it cost?
How good does it have to be?
• Project planning should begin early even before the project is authorized.
In most cases, project planning begins during the formulation of project
proposal or during the conception and definition phases. The project plan
is then modified as conditions change throughout the project.

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Overview of project planning and scheduling

• Project scheduling: the conversion of the project


action plan into an operating time table.
♦ Two kinds of schedules are commonly used:
project schedules and task schedules.
♦ Project-level schedules show clusters of tasks and
work packages which comprise the project.
♦ Task-level schedule show the jobs needed to
complete individual work packages (represents either
a subcontract of work to be performed by an outsider
or inside functional unit) or smaller work elements.

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• Project control: process of comparing actual project work


accomplishment with planned project progress. This process
enables rational changes in management’s use of resources to
complete the project within time, cost and quality targets.
These ongoing functions ensure timely performance of the project
activities within cost and quality standards. Periodic generation of
updated charts, reports, and schedules keeps all the project
participants informed about their particular work, when each
activity must be done, corrective actions required and particular
problem to watch for.

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1.2 The major components of a project plan

Summary of project plan: brief description of project plan including project


scope, goal, budget size, major milestone, critical constraints.
Objectives: should be specific, measurable, time-limited, attainable.
Project strategy: major approach to implement the project.
For example:
Technology: employing a new technology or a well-proven one

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Construction: assembly of prefabricated components


or on-site building
Design: among different design alternatives which
one should be used.
Finance: ways of funding project
Contract: type of contract, division of project into
separate contracts, etc.

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The major components of a project plan

Contractual requirement
– List of all deliverables (reports, physical items, etc.)
– Specifications (performance specifications, government
regulations, etc.)
– Policies and procedures (contacts, data securities,
procedures for delivery, etc.)
Work breakdown structure

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Schedule
Resource requirements
Personnel, equipment, materials, information, etc. should be specified in
conjunction with schedule to ensure their availability when needed.
Monitoring and control system
– Methods of monitoring, collecting and analyzing the progress
measures
– Outlines of corrective actions for specific undesirable events.
Major contributors: linear responsibility chart can be used.
Risk analysis with contingencies when possible.

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1.3 Tools of project planning and scheduling


a. Work breakdown structure: used to define the project work and
break it down into specific tasks
• Dividing the project into work packages makes it possible to prepare
resources requirement, cost estimates, and to assign management and
task responsibility.
• A WBS can be product oriented or function-oriented
• Some suggestions on developing WBS:
♦ All paths on a WBS do not have to go down to the same level

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♦ WBS does not have to show the sequence to perform works


♦ WBS should be developed by individuals knowledgeable
about the work to be done.
♦ Project is broken down to a level sufficient to produce
estimates of the required accuracy (more than 20 levels is
considered overkill)

b. Line of responsibility chart: used to define project organization,


key individuals, and their responsibilities

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Tools of project planning and scheduling


c. Milestones charts: used to identify critical points and
major occurrences on the project schedule

Event1 Event2 Eventn

Time

For ease of viewing events and their due dates are depicted
on a time line
The project office in cooperation with the clients and the
participating organizations has the responsibility for defining
the key milestones prior to start up.

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Selecting the right types and number of milestones is critical.


♦ Each key milestone should represent a checkpoint for a major
occurrence such as completion of several critical or difficult
activities, a major approval, or the availability of crucial
resources.
♦ Too many milestones can result in over control, unnecessary
busy work and increased overhead cost. On the other hand, if
the milestones are defined too far apart, problems will arise in
project tracking and control.

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2.1 Gantt chart - Introduction


• The most commonly used tool for project scheduling and
control was developed during World War II by Henry
Gantt.
• The chart consists of a horizontal scale divided into time
units – days, weeks, months- and a vertical scale showing
project work elements-tasks, activities, etc.
Activity

Time
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• A bar denotes an activity and its location with respect


to the horizontal axis indicates the time over which
the activity is performed.
• Preparation of Gantt chart comes after a WBS
analysis including determination of precedence
relationship between activities and estimation of
activity times.

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Gantt chart - introduction (continued)


• It is possible to schedule activities by either early start or late
start logic.
– In the early start approach, each activity is scheduled as
early as possible without violating the precedence relations.
This schedule yields the earliest finish time of the project.

– In the late start approach, each activity is delayed as much


as possible as long as the project earliest finish time is not
compromised.

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– The difference between the start (or the end) times of an activity
on the two schedule is called the slack (or float) of the activity.

• Activities having no slack are termed critical. The sequence of


activities connecting the start and end points of the project is called
the critical path.

• The sum of durations for activities along a critical path gives the
shortest possible time to complete the project. A delay in any of
these activities delays the entire project.

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2.2 Gantt chart - advantages and
disadvantage

♦ Advantage of Gantt chart:


 It is simple to construct and easy for
everyone in the project to understand
 Gives a clear pictorial model of the project
 Once the project is underway, Gantt chart
becomes a means for assessing the status
of individual activities/tasks (behind or ahead
of schedule)

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♦ Disadvantages of Gantt chart


 Not show explicitly the interrelationships
among activities  provide no way of
knowing what is the effect of one activity
falling behind schedule on other activities.
• Gantt charts are often manually
maintained easy for small and simple
projects but burdensome in large projects.

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3. Network Analysis-CPM & PERT

• Network: a visual presentation of a project

marketing plan ❸ advertisement

sales
design

❶ ❷ material procurement ❻ ❼
production

❹ Production line setup ❺

• Network: a useful tool to help manage, schedule and


control projects

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3.1 History, attributes of CPM and


PERT methods

• CPM (Critical Path Method):


- Developed in 1957
- CPM is today an important project planning and control
technique.
- CPM emphasis on cost (including time/cost trade-off
and resource allocation)
- CPM is deterministic approach

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• PERT (Program Evaluation and Review


Technique)
- PERT was developed at about the same
time (in 1958)
- PERT concentrates on time factor. It used
three time estimates for each activity in a
project.
- PERT is probabilistic approach.

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3.2 Network-the basic definitions


• Network: a system consisting of a finite number of
nodes, some of which are interconnected by arcs.

Network representation of project activities:


Directed arcs can be used to indicate precedence
order of activities

• An Activity: represents a task or subproject that


uses time or resource.

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• A Dummy Activity: is an imaginary activity that


consumes no time and resource. It is interested for the
sole purpose of displaying the proper predecessor
relationship between activities.

• An Event: marks the start or completion of one or


more activities. It is denoted by the symbol “Ο ”, which
contains a number that helps identify its location.

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3.3 Network - AOA and AON

There are two ways displaying network: AOA and AON


+ AOA (Activity On Arrow - Activity On Arc): Each activity is
represented by an arc / arrow of the network. The node is then
called an event.

A B

+ AON (Activity1 On Node): Each


C
activity3 is represented
D
by
4 node, and

a directed arc leads from node A to node B if activity B can be


started only after the completion of activity A.

A B

C D

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Remark:
✍ AON is easier to construct, and there is no

need of dummy nodes or arcs. AON model is


the basic for most computer programming.
✍ AOA is better suit for PERT procedure that

places emphasis on events explicitly


represented by nodes in AON. Also, AOA
yields a natural Gantt Chart.

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3.4 Network-Relation among activities


Precedence relations among activities
➭ Start-to-end (most common)
Ex: finish financial accounting to start managerial accounting
➭ Start-to-start
Ex: start Vietware to start editing Vietnamese document
➭ End-to-start
Ex: stop a pretty good job only when a better job has already
started
➭ End-to-end
Ex: quality control can only finish when production finished

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3.5 The rules for constructing an AOA


network
• Under AOA network approach, network notation:

A B
i j k
tij tjk

Rule 1: Each activity is represented by one and only one


arrow in the network.
1 A
A C
1 2 3 4
B
2

A) B)

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Rule 2: Arrows denote logical precedence, its length has no


significance with respect to the time duration accompanying
either of the activities it connects.
Rule 3: There should be only one initial and one terminal node.

3 6

1 2
 Incorrect representation because4node 4 is no7predecessor8and
node 6 is no successor. 5

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The rules (continued)


Rule 4: No two activities can be identified by the same
head and tail events
A 2
A D1
1 2
B 1 3
B

(a)Incorrect representation (b) Correct representation


(by using dummy activity D1)

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Rule 5: Cycle or closed-loop paths through the network are not


permitted. They imply that an activity is a successor of
another activity that depends on it.

3 E 4
B C F
1 A 2 D 5 G 6

 Incorrect representation because activities B, C, and D make


a closed - loop

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Rule 6: A network should be shown in clear and simple


forms as possible. It implies that there should not be
many intersections of activities in the network.

2 3

1 4 1 2

3 4

(a) Should not b) Should

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Network construction examples


• Project 1:
➭ Activities A, B, C can start at any time
➭ Activity D starts after A has finished
➭ Activity E starts after both A and B have finished
➭ Activity F starts after both B and C have finished
• Project 2:
➭ Activities A, B can start at any time
➭ Activity C starts only after both A and B have finished
➭ Activity D starts after B has finished
➭ Activity E starts after C has finished
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• Project 3:
➭ Activities A, B and C can start at any time
➭ Activity D starts after C has finished
➭ Activity E starts after all A, B, C have finished
➭ Activity F starts after D and E have finished

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Network construction examples


• Project 4:
➭ Activities A and B can start at any time
➭ Activity C starts after A has finished
➭ Activity D starts after C has finished
➭ Activity E starts after both B and C have finished
• Project 5:
➭ Activities A, B and C can start at any time
➭ Activity D starts after both A and B have finished
➭ Activity E starts after A, B and C have finished
➭ Activity F starts after D and E have finished

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Example project
Activities After Time (weeks)
A - 1
B A 4
CB 6
DA 3
E D 2
F C,E 2
G- 3
HG 5
I F,H 2

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3.6 CPM-A manager’s view of CPM

Input Processing Output

(What information results from CPM that


(What information must be supplied to CPM) provides for better project management?)

•A complete list of project activities CPM processing •Estimated duration of the project
•Precedence relationship among activities procedure •Identification of critical activities
•Estimate of each activity’s duration •Amount of slack for each activity

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3.7 CPM -The major parameters of a


network
• Parameters of an event:
Lij : the duration of activity
Early time of an event: earliest time the event can take place without violating
precedence constraints (ti)
Calculate early times: forward pass
t1=0
ti=maxi[ti+Lij ] for all (i,j) activities defined

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Late time of an event: earliest time the event can take place without causing a schedule
overrun (Ti)
Calculate late times: backward pass
Tn=tn
Ti=minj[Tj-Lij ] for all (i,j) activities defined

• Critical path:
➭ the longest sequence(s) in the network
➭ the earliest time to finish the project
an activity lies on the critical path when:
ti=Ti
tj=Tj
tj-Ti=Tj-Ti=Lij

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The major parameters of a network


(continued)
• Parameters of an activity
• Early start time (ESij): the earliest time activity (i,j)
can start without violating any precedence relations
ESij=ti for all i
• Early finish time (EFij): the earliest time activity (i,j)
can finish without violating any precedence relations
EFij=ESij + Lij for all (i,j) defined

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• Late start time (LSij): the latest time activity (i,j) can
start without delaying the completion of the project
LFij=Tj for all j
• Late finish time (LFij): the latest time activity (i,j) can
finish without delaying the completion of the project
LSij=LFij-Lij for all (i,j) defined

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The major parameters of a network


(continued)
• Parameters of an activity (continued)

➭ Total Slack (TSij): time that activity can be delayed


without delaying the end of the project
TSij = LSij - ESij = LFij - EFij

➭ Free Slack (FSij): time that activity can be delayed


without delaying both the start of any succeeding
activity and the end of the project
FSij = tj - (ti + Lij)

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CPM - what it is able to provide


• CPM has been able to provide several valuable pieces of
management information:
• The project’s expected completion date
• The activities on the critical path. If any one of them is delayed for
any reason, the entire project will be delayed.
• The activities not on the critical path but having some slack time
built in. This means that their resources can be borrowed, if
needed, possibly to speed up the entire project.
• A detailed schedule of activity starting and ending dates available

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3.8 PERT - uncertainty consideration

• In CPM, it assumes no allowance for activity variance. When


fluctuations in performance time are low, this assumption is
logically justified and empirically been shown to produce quite
accurate results.

• When high levels of uncertainty exist, however, CPM may not


provide a very good estimate of the project completion time.
Therefore, PERT is developed. It employed a probability
distribution based on three time estimates for each activity:

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• Optimistic Time (a): Time an activity will take


if everything go as well as possible.
• Pessimistic Time (b): Time an activity would
take assuming very unfavorable conditions.

Most Likely Time (m): Most realistic time
estimate to complete the activity.

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PERT analysis
• To convert m, a, and b into estimates of the expected time te
and variance σ 2, two assumptions are made:
➭ The time estimates follow the beta probability distribution.
From one end of the beta distribution to the other is 6
standard deviations (± 3 standard deviation from the
mean). Since (b – a) is 6 standard deviation,

b −a
 Variance: σ=
6
(b −a ) 2
σ =
2

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➭ Expected time te is a weight average of the mode


m and the midpoint (a + b)/2, where the former is
given twice as much weight as the latter.
1 1 
t e = 2m + ( a +b )
3 2 
1 1 
t e =  2m + ( a + b ) 
3 2 

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3.10 PERT Algorithm


♦ Draw the network connecting all of the activities
♦ Calculate expected time (te) and standard error
(σ ) for each activity
♦ Use CPM algorithm with expected times to find
critical path and activities

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♦ For any milestone, given the scheduled occurrence (SO),


calculate the probability of meeting schedule by assuming
normal distribution:

SO −EO
Z =
Where:+ SO: Scheduled Occurrence ∑
σ 2
of completion time
+ EO: Expected Occurrence of completion time
+ The sum of σ 2 is taken over all critical activities

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Notes on PERT algorithm

• PERT makes two more assumptions:


– total project completion times follow a normal
probability distribution; and
– activity times are statistically independent.
• Project variance = Σ variances of activities on the
critical path
• Z = 0 implies probability = 0.5

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• The standard normal distribution table is used to find


the probability from Z
• Given the probability, we can find Z by the same
table and calculate back the SO

SO =EO +Z × ∑σ 2

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PERT example
Questions
• What is the completion time of the project?
• What is the critical path?
• What is the probability that the project will be
completed within 30 days?
• What would be the completion date that we could
promise with 80% certainty?
Network with Activity’s Three Time Estimates
E (4,11,12)
2 6
A (6,14,16) J (1,5,9)
F (5,7,9)
B (6,15,30) K (1,4,7)
1 7 8
C (2,5,8) I (1,5,9)
D (1,2,3)
G (3,12,21) H (3,4,5)
3 4 5

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PERT example
Activity a m b te σ 2

A=1-2 6 14 16 13 2.78
B=1-7 6 15 30 16 16.00
C=1-4 2 5 8 5 1.00
D=1-3 1 2 3 2 0.11
E=2-6 4 11 12 10 1.78
F=2-5 5 7 9 7 0.44
G=3-4 3 12 21 12 9.00
H=4-5 3 4 5 4 0.11
I=5-7 1 5 9 5 1.78
J=6-8 1 5 9 5 1.78
K=7-8 1 4 7 4 1.00

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Network with Activity’s Expected Time and Variance

2 E, 10 (1.78) 6
A, 13 (2.78) J, 5 (1.78)
F, 7 (0.44)

1 B, 16 (16) 7 K, 4 (1) 8
C, 5 (1) I, 5 (1.78)
D, 2 (1.1)
3 G, 12 (9) 4 H, 4 (0.11) 5

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PERT example
Q3:
SO = 30 days
SO −EO 30 −29 1
Z = = =
∑σ2
( 2.78 +0.44 +1.78 +1) 6
Z = 0.408
Using Standard Normal Distribution
p (completion time < 30 days) = 0.6691 = 66.91%
Q4:
p = 80%  Using Standard Normal Distribution  Z = ?

SO = EO +Z × ∑ =
σ2

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PERT - what it is able to provide


• Beside the information provided similar to CPM, PERT
answers more the two main questions:

♦ Given a scheduled completion time SO, what is the


probability that the project will be finished by that
time?

♦ What is the date that we can say with a given


certainty that we shall finish the project before it?

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3.11 Framework of CPM and PERT


Six steps of CPM and PERT
1. Define the project and all of its significant activities or task
2. Develop the relationships among the activities. Decide which
activities must precede and follow others.
3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities.
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity.
5. Computer the longest time path through the network; this is called
the critical path
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control
project

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4. Scheduling with cost and limited


resources
Project and budget
• Budget, a communication tool
– Long-range budget
– Midrange budget
– Short-range budget
• An efficient budget:
– objectives vs. measurable outputs
– trackable by time to give comparison between planned and
actual performance
– detailed for all levels

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4.1 Project budgeting


• Top-down budgeting
– Only suboptimality achieved as limited knowledge
from top management
– Competion for budget at the lower levels
• Bottom-up budgeting
– Lack of control
– Operational vs strategic objectives
• Iterative budgeting
– Long duration needed

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Budget management

Cash
flow
time

Cash
flow
time

Cash
flow
time
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4.2 Slack management

• Early start schedule: rather high expenses at the


early stages of the project
->
• Late start schedule: rather low expenses at the early
stages of the project
->
• Reschedule with slack: more even-distributed
expenses

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4.3 Project crashing


• Definition: modify the project schedule by expediting the
completion time at the least additional cost
Five Steps of Project Crashing

1. Estimate the normal time and cost of the activity


Estimate the crash time and cost of the activity
2. Find the normal critical path and identify the critical
activities. Sum up the normal costs of all the activities to
obtain the total cost under normal schedule.

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3. Compute the crash cost per week (or other time period)
for all activities in the network. This process uses the
following formula:
Crash Cost – Normal Cost
Crash Cost / Time Period = ------------------------------------
Normal Time – Crash Time
4. Select the activity on the critical path with the smallest
crash cost per week.
5. Check to be sure that the critical path you were crashing
is still critical.
If the critical path is still the longest path through the
network, return to step 4.
If not, find the new critical path and return to step 4.

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Crashing example
Activity Description Immediate Duration
Predecessors (weeks)
A Buildinternal components - 2
B Modifyroof andfloor - 3
C Construct collectionstack A 2
D Pour concreteandinstall frame B 4
E Buildhigh-temperatureburner C 4
F Install control system C 3
G Install air pollutiondevice D, E 5
H Inspect andtest F, G 2

2 C, 2 4
A, 2 F, 3
E, 4
1 6 H, 2 7
B, 3 G, 5
3 D, 4 5
Activity Earliest Start Latest Start Slack On
(ES) (LS) (LS – ES) Critical Path?
A 0 0 0 Yes
B 0 1 1 No
C 2 2 0 Yes
D 3 4 1 No
E 4 4 0 Yes
F 4 10 6 No
G 8 8 0 Yes
H 13 13 0 Yes
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Crashing example (continued)


Activity Time Cost ($) Crash cost Critical
Normal Crash Normal Crash per week ($) path?
A 2 1 22,000 23,000 1,000 Yes
B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No
C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes
D 4 3 48,000 49,000 1,000 No
E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes
F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No
G 5 2 80,000 86,000 2,000 Yes
H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes

Require: Shorten the completion time of the project by 1 week

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Crash and Normal Times and Costs for Activity A

Activity
Cost
Crash
$23,000
(Crash cost)

Normal
$22,000
(Normal cost)

1 2 Time (weeks)
(Crash time) (Normal time)

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Resource Management
Resource
level
Resource A

Time

Resource
level
Resource A

Time

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4.4 Resource Leveling


• Resource leveling: process of scheduling activities so that the
utilization of a certain resource is balanced through the project.

Resource leveling aims to minimize the period-by-period variations


in resource loading by shifting tasks within their slack allowances.
• Advantages of resource leveling
• Much less hands-on management
• Less waste
• Smooth implementation

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The steps for resource leveling


1. Carry on CPM method
2. Prepare the Gantt chart with all activities to be started as
soon as possible.
3. Prepare load diagram for each resource
4. Choose one specific resource (the most fluctuating, the most
expensive or most scarce). Use the slack to re-schedule the
activities using the resource to level its use over the project.
5. Redraw the load diagram for all resources. Choose the next
resource and repeat the procedure.

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Resource leveling example


C,6
A,4 ❷ (2) F,6
(8) (6)
B,2 ❹ ❻
❶ (2)
G,4 H,4
D,2 E,3 (3)
(4) ❺
(3) (4)

Note: A,4 - activity lasts 4 days, needs 8 labors/day
(8)

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• Activity ES EF LF LS TS FS
• A (1,2)
• B (2,3)
• C (2,4)
• D (1,3)
• E (3,4)
• F (4,6
• G (4,5)
• H (5,6)

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Resource leveling example (con’t)


Gantt Chart
Activities
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Time
5 10 15 20 25 26
Load Diagram
Labor

10

2
Time
5 10 15 20 25

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4.5 Constrained-resource scheduling


problem

Constrained resource scheduling problem: To


schedule the activities so that the utilization of a
particular resource does not exceed a specified
maximum

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Guidelines:
• Carry out resource leveling if possible
• If the resources are limited, the project’s completion
time will be delayed.
• Common priority rule can be used.
Example
Network with Activity Times and Resources

A, 2

(2)
C, 5
1 4
(4)

B, 3
(2)
3

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Constrained-resource
scheduling example
Assume that the project has only maximum 5 people. At that time
we must reschedule the project by extending its completion time.
In particular, we can delay some activities over their slack
allowance or extend them to reduce resources to allowed extent.

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Gantt Chart
Activities
A

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Time

No. of Constrained Resource Scheduling


People
8
6
4
A C
2
B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Time

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Constrained-resource scheduling
Notes
1. Common priority rules:
- Shortest Tasks First.
- Most Resource First.
- Minimum Slack First.
- Most Critical Followers.
- Most Successors.

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2. Technological necessities.

3. There is no guarantee that we can find the “best”


schedule. However, we can always improve on the
existing schedule.

4. Most computer programs for project management


has this capability.

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