Académique Documents
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7
International Arbitrage And
Interest Rate Parity
B7 - 2
International Arbitrage
$
Value of Value of
£ in $ MYR in $
£ MYR
Value of
£ in MYR
B7 - 7
International Arbitrage
• Example:
£ spot rate = 90-day forward rate = $1.60
U.S. 90-day interest rate = 2%
U.K. 90-day interest rate = 2%
Borrow $ at 3%, or use existing funds which
are earning interest at 2%. Convert $ to £ at
$1.60/£ and engage in a 90-day forward
contract to sell £ at $1.60/£. Lend £ at 4%.
B7 - 8
International Arbitrage
B7 - 9
International Arbitrage
B7 - 10
Interest Rate Parity (IRP)
B7 - 11
Determining the Forward Premium
Example:
• Suppose 6-month ipeso = 6%, i$ = 5%.
• From the U.S. investor’s perspective,
forward premium = 1.05/1.06 – 1 - .0094
• If S = $.10/peso, then
6-month forward rate = S (1 + p)
_
.10 (1 .0094)
$.09906/peso
B7 - 12
Determining the Forward Premium
B7 - 13
Graphic Analysis of Interest Rate Parity
Interest Rate Differential (%)
home interest rate – foreign interest rate
4
IRP line
2
Forward -3 -1 1 3 Forward
Discount (%) Premium (%)
-2
-4
B7 - 14
Graphic Analysis of Interest Rate Parity
Interest Rate Differential (%)
home interest rate – foreign interest rate
4
Zone of potential
covered interest IRP line
arbitrage by
foreign investors 2
Forward -3 -1 1 3 Forward
Discount (%) Premium (%)
Zone of potential
- 2 covered interest
arbitrage by
local investors
-4
B7 - 15
Test for the Existence of IRP
B7 - 16
Interpretation of IRP
B7 - 17
Does IRP Hold?
Transaction Costs
iH – iF
IRP line
Zone of potential
covered interest
arbitrage by
foreign investors Zone of
p potential
Zone where covered
covered interest interest
arbitrage is not arbitrage
feasible due to by local
transaction costs investors
B7 - 19
Considerations When Assessing IRP
Political Risk
¤ A crisis in the foreign country could cause
its government to restrict any exchange of
the local currency for other currencies.
¤ Investors may also perceive a higher
default risk on foreign investments.
Differential Tax Laws
¤ If tax laws vary, after-tax returns should be
considered instead of before-tax returns.
B7 - 20
Explaining Changes in Forward Premiums
Interest Rates
iA
Because of IRP,
iU.S.
a forward rate
will normally
move in tandem
with the spot
t0 t1 t2 time
rate.
Forward Rates
Spot and
This correlation
SA
depends on
FA
interest rate
movements,
t0 t1 t2 time i.e. p iH–iF
B7 - 21
Explaining Changes in Forward Premiums
B7 - 22
Chapter Review
• International Arbitrage
¤ Locational Arbitrage
¤ Triangular Arbitrage
¤ Covered Interest Arbitrage
¤ Comparison of Arbitrage Effects
B7 - 23
Chapter Review
B7 - 24
Chapter Review
B7 - 25