How do the following types of

election differ?
Primary Election
General Election
Special Election
Election by governor
Midterm Election
 Heads & Tails
Complete the sentences by the matching the “heads” and “tails” below.
Congressional elections are held…
The most important factor that determines which
candidate wins an election is…
Incumbents are elected officials who already hold office
and are running for re-election and they…
Incumbents usually win (sometimes by a narrower
margin) and therefore…
Incumbency allows senators and representatives to gain
valuable experience and bring some stability to Congress
however…
Senatorial races are usually intense because…
The challengers in senate races are also more likely to be
known in the political arena because…
…incumbents, who tend to have higher profiles, are more
likely to be held accountable for public policy successes or
failures.
…every two years in November.
incumbency.
…this may also work to insulate members of Congress
from change, making it more difficult for constituents to
effect change.
…senatorial races often draw former representatives or
governors.
…win re-election more than 90% of the time.
…turnover in Congress usually occurs when members
retire.
Enquiry Question: How do you ‘win’ a
congressional election?
Learning Outcomes
• To understand the context of congressional election
campaigns
• To explain the principal factors influencing the
outcomes in congressional elections
• To evaluate the significance of these factors in
affecting the outcome of congressional elections
Congressional Elections

• Craig Benzine talks about the importance of

elections.
• But he isn’t going to focus on presidential elections,
but instead those of the strongest part of our
government: congressional elections.
• Craig will talk about the frequency of elections in
the Senate and House, typical characteristics of a
candidate, and the motivating factors our congress
people follow to get re-elected.
• Watch the video clip.
 Political Context
Congressional Election Campaigns
• Parties are less important – getting nominated is an
individual effort in America today
• Media, polling, and money are more important – today’s
candidates spend the most on media
• The plurality of political ads designed to appeal to voters’ fears
• People are hired to perform campaign tasks
• Media consultants, direct mail firms, polling firms. political
technology firms
 Political Context
Key Differences
Presidential races are more competitive. programs, and so forth
• Presidential winner rarely gets more than 55 • President can't: power is not local
percent of vote
Congressional candidates can duck responsibility.
• Most House incumbents are reelected (more
than 90 percent) • "I didn't do it; the people in Washington did!“ -
President is stuck with blame
Fewer people vote in congressional elections
• But local candidates can suffer when leader's
• Unless election coincides with presidential economic policies fail
election
Benefit of presidential coattails has decline
• Gives greater importance to partisan voters
(party regulars) • Congressional elections have become largely
independent
Congressional incumbents can service their
constituents. • Reduces meaning (and importance) of party

• Can take credit for governmental grants,

Learning Outcomes
• To understand the context of congressional election
campaigns
• To explain the principal factors influencing the
outcomes in congressional elections
• To evaluate the significance of these factors in
affecting the outcome of congressional elections
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
If you wanted to get elected to Congress, what might influence the
outcome of your election?
Incumbency Campaign
Finance

Open Seats Independent

Voters

Coattail
Effect Issues

Party Redistricting & Voter

Gerrymandering
Identification turnout
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Incumbency
• Incumbents – those already holding office
• Since 1970, 95% of incumbent House members seeking re-election
have won.
• House elections – 90% of the incumbents seeking re-election win
and most of them win with more than 60% of the vote
• Few things in life are more predictable than the chances of an incumbent member
of the U.S. House of Representatives winning reelection.
• With wide name recognition, and usually an insurmountable advantage in campaign
cash, House incumbents typically have little trouble holding onto their seats—as this
chart shows.
• Senate races still overwhelmingly favour the incumbent, but not by as reliable a
margin as House races.
• Big swings in the national mood can sometimes topple long time office-holders, as
happened with the Reagan revolution in 1980. Even so, years like that are an
exception.
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Incumbency
Advantages of incumbency
• Name recognition – “the name you know”
• Advertising – ads in newspapers and on television
• Credit claiming – servicing the constituency through casework and pork
barrel
• Position taking – voting and responding to constituents’ questions
• Franking privilege
• Weak opponents – not well known or well qualified and lack experience
and organizational and financial backing
• Campaign spending – the typical incumbent outspent the typical
challenger by a ratio of more than 3 to 1 in races in 2008
Defeating incumbents
• One tarnished by scandal or corruption becomes vulnerable to a
challenger
• Redistricting may weaken the incumbency advantages
• Major political tidal wave may defeat incumbents
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Open Seats
• Greater likelihood of competition
• Turnover in Congress usually only comes when incumbents die,
decide to retire, or seek some other office vacating their
House/Senate seat
• Most turnover occurs in open seats – often in special elections
• Redistricting- happens once each decade after the census so often
promotes some turnover (e.g. 2002)
• Ageing Congress: 1/3 of the US House retired in 1992-1996.

SPECIAL ELECTION EXAMPLES

• Alabama Senate Special Election 2017
• Pennsylvania House Special Election 2018
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Redistricting & Gerrymandering

Watch the video clip!

Factors that affect Congressional Elections
The Coattail Effect
• Presidential popularity affects both House and Senate elections.
• Coattail Effect - the boost that candidates may get in an election
because of the popularity of candidates above them on the ballot,
especially the president.
• In midterm elections, presidential popularity and economic
conditions have long been associated with the number of House
seats a president’s party loses.
(President’s party usually loses seats)
• In all of the midterm elections between 1934 and 1998- the party
controlling the White House lost seats in the house.
• When presidential landslides occur, the victorious party is especially
vulnerable and likely to lose seats in the next midterm election.
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Campaign Finance
• Incumbents outspent their challengers roughly 3-1.
• Serious challengers in House races are hard to find- many are scared
away financially or by the public pressures.
• A few challengers mount serious campaigns because of a desire to
serve and to influence public policy.
• Incumbents have a host of advantages to help them like franking
privileges, free use of broadcast studios, a large staff to perform
countless favours for constituents.
• The Senate
• Incumbency is an advantage for senators, although not as much as
for representatives they have state-of-the-art campaign techniques
and a campaign usually costs well into the millions.
• Interest groups and parties direct more money to competitive races
in small cities where the stakes for control of the Senate are high.
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Campaign Finance
• All private funding (no public 2014 Congressional Election Finance
funding like in presidential
campaigns)
• From individuals, PACs, and parties
• Most from individual small donors
($100 to $200 a person)
• $1,000 maximum for individual
donors
• Benefit performances by rock
stars, etc.
• $5,000 limit from PACs 2016 Congressional Election Finance
• But most PACs give only a few
hundred dollars
• Tremendous PAC advantage to
incumbents: backing the winner
• Challengers have to pay their own
way; only one-sixth from PACs
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Party Identification
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Party Identification
If this graph is to be believed –
why don’t Democrats win all
elections? [Pew Research Data]

BECAUSE…
• Democrats less loyal
to their party
• GOP does better
among
independents
• Republicans have
higher turnout
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Independent Voters
• Most voters who switch parties do so in their own
interests
• They know which issues affect them personally
• They care strongly about emotional issues (abortion, etc.)

Prospective voting
• Know the issues and vote for the best candidate
• Most common among activists and special interest groups
• Few voters use prospective voting because it requires information.

Retrospective voting
• Judge the incumbent's performance and vote accordingly
• Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically?
• Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992
• Usually helps incumbent unless economy has gotten worse

• Most elections decided by retrospective votes

• Midterm election: voters turn against president's party
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Voter Turnout
In recent
elections, about
60% of the
voting eligible
population
votes during
presidential
election years,
and about 40%
votes during
midterm
elections.
Turnout is
lower for odd
year, primary
and local
elections.
 THINKING ANALYTICALLY:
• What patterns and trends can you
identify?
• What impact might this have on
the outcome of congressional
races?
• What, other than the election
year, might affect voter turnout?
[S&C: Read the handout to further
identify variables]
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
Issues
The balancing act
Types of Issues
• Being conservative (or liberal) • Valence issues are usually
enough to get nominated
those that the electorate are in
• Move to center to get elected almost complete agreement of,
• True nationwide in states where regardless of their political
activists are more polarized than persuasions or party allegiances.
average voter • Positional issues are those
• The "clothespin vote": neither which are affected by the political
candidate is appealing stance of an individual.

Why did Clinton lose on issues?

• Trust
• Economy
• Message vacuum
Watch the video clip.
Learning Outcomes
• To understand the context of congressional election
campaigns
• To explain the principal factors influencing the
outcomes in congressional elections
• To evaluate the significance of these factors in
affecting the outcome of congressional elections
Factors that affect Congressional Elections
YOUR TASK;
• Prioritize the Redistricting &
factors in Incumbency Gerrymandering
order of
importance
on the
outcome of
congressional
elections.
• Which
factors are
the most
significant?
• Why?
• Which
factors are
the least Independent
significant? Voters Issues
• Why?
Learning Outcomes
• To understand the context of congressional election
campaigns
• To explain the principal factors influencing the
outcomes in congressional elections
• To evaluate the significance of these factors in
affecting the outcome of congressional elections
Assess the extent to which incumbents have an
advantage over challengers in Congressional
elections. (15)
 Assess the extent to which incumbents
have an advantage over challengers in
Congressional elections. (15)
Bare percentages suggest that incumbents have a considerable advantage over
challengers;
• HoR incumbent success rate is usually above 90% and Senate above 80.
• Incumbency in the House is so potent that it is not unusual for congressional districts to
be uncontested;
• Senate elections are almost always fairly keenly contested because of the greater
prestige of a Senate seat.
• Because of gerrymandering, many House representatives are more likely to face a
meaningful challenge in their party’s primary than the general election.
Reasons for incumbents’ success include:
• gerrymandering & ‘safe’ states
• their track record of ‘pork’ generation
• name recognition & fund-raising prowess
• perks of office, e.g. free franking
However, there were more competitive House districts in 2010 than for many years, and
To what extent are mid-term elections merely a
referendum on the performance of the President?
(45)
 To what extent are mid-term elections
merely a referendum on the performance
of the President? (45)
Mid-term elections are the elections for the House of Representatives
and the Senate which occur half-way through the president’s four year
term.
Evidence that midterm elections are a referendum on the president
includes:
• the president’s party has lost congressional seats in all but three mid-
terms in the last 100 years
• since 1994, mid-terms have arguably become ‘nationalised’ and
elections such as 1994, 2006 and 2010 were all elections in which the
president’s record was a factor in his party’s loss of seats
• in 2002, when the Republicans won seats, the response of President
Bush to the attacks on New York and Washington, and his domestic
agenda of tax cuts, was also arguably a factor
 To what extent are mid-term elections
merely a referendum on the performance
of the President? (45)
Evidence that midterm elections are not merely a referendum on the
president includes:
• losses by the president’s party may be attributable to the absence of the
presidential ‘coattails’ which had won the party seats two years before
• the record of the congressional leadership may be a significant factor, e.g.
the Republicans’ campaigns against the ‘Pelosi-Reid’ agenda in 2010; in 1998
the strategy of the congressional Republican leadership in pursuing
impeachment proceedings against the president may have been a factor in
Democratic gains
• individual candidates’ campaigns may have a significant impact on the result,
e.g. George Allen in Virginia in 2006 and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware in
2010
• the power of incumbency, which fell below 90% in the House elections in
2010 for only the first time in 30 years
Homework
Application Task:
Assess the extent to which incumbents have an
advantage over challengers in Congressional
elections. (15)
Preparation Task:
Features of American Elections (Singh p83-90)
Stretch & Challenge Task
To what extent are mid-term elections merely a
referendum on the performance of the President?
(45)