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EPIDEMIOLOGY
Learning Objectives
• At the end of the module:
• 1. discuss the importance of studying the causes of disease or health-
related conditions
• 2. explain and differentiate
2.1 causal association from statistical association
2.2 necessary cause from sufficient cause
• 3.Explain and discuss the following
• 3.1 models that explain the biologic aspect of disease causation
• 3.2 statistical aspect of determining disease causation
• 4. discuss the natural history of disease and its importance in prevention
and control
• 5. describe how diseases and disabilities are classified
The Importance of Studying the
Causes of Disease
• In Epidemiology , the establishment of disease condition is
the ultimate goal such that once cause is established,
prevention and control strategies may be formulated and
directed towards the “cause”. Definition of cause -
something that brings about an effect or a result ( Webster)
• Definition of Cause of disease –an event, condition or
characteristic that plays an essential role in producing an
occurrence of the disease (Rothman)
• As a consequence, good health will be maintained for those
who are not yet affected, prevention of disease among
those who are at risk and management of the disease
process among those who are already ill.
TYPES OF ASSOCIATION
• A. not statistically associated (independent)
• B. Statistically associated
1. Noncausally (secondarily associated)
2. Causally associated
a. Indirectly associated
b. Directly causal
Statistical Association
• Definition of Statistical Association – statistical dependence
between two variables, i.e., the degree to which the
disease rate in the exposed group is either higher or lower
than the rate in the unexposed group
• If one category of event occurs in a certain proportion, x, of
a group of persons and another proportion , y, the two
types of events will occur together among some members
of the group – in a proportion, in fact , equal to the product
of the separate proportions, xy.
• Statistical association means that the proportion of persons
exhibiting both events is either significantly higher or
significantly lower than the proportion predicted on the
basis of simultaneous consideration of the separate
frequencies of the two categories of events.
Statistical Association
• Statistical associations are determined for
categories and not for individual instances.
• Example: 100 persons vaccinated vs. 100 persons
received placebo and not vaccinated against a
particular disease (measles).
• An epidemic occurred: 20 of the vaccinated
persons and 50 of the unvaccinated contract the
disease.
• Question: Is the difference due to chance? If you
are not sure then do a test of hypothesis.
Statistical Association
• If the difference is statistically significant then
it is unlikely due to chance then we would say
that a statistical association exists between
vaccination and remaining free of the disease.
• QUESTION: Is it possible to say that
vaccination caused any individual person in
the vaccinated group to remain disease –
free?
Statistical Association
• However, we cannot deny that information
from a group experience may suggest the
likelihood of causal association in an individual
instance.
• The stronger the association between the two
categories of events revealed by the group
experience, the more likely is the assumption
of causal association in a specific instance to
be correct.
Statistical Association
• Thus, if the disease frequency in the
unvaccinated series had been 99 percent and
that in the vaccinated series 1 percent, there
would be a very high probability that the
absence of disease in any one vaccinated
individual was related to the vaccination, and
the statement that the vaccination of any one
individual was causally related to his freedom
from disease would probably be correct.
Statistical Association
• The validity of the previous statement would
depend however, on the TOTAL experience
and not any observation made on this one
individual (other than that he was one of
those who were vaccinated and remained free
of the disease).
CAUSAL vs. NONCAUSAL ASSOCIATION
• Definition of Causal Association (of exposure and disease) –
is one in which a change in the frequency and quality of an
exposure or characteristic results in a corresponding
change in the frequency of the disease or outcome of
interest.
• Causally associated – requires that change in one party to
the association alters the other.
• The large number of statistical associations which do not
satisfy this requirement are sometimes referred to as
(Noncausally) secondary associations.
• Noncausal statistical associations usually result from
association of both categories of events with a third
category.
NONCAUSAL STATISTICAL
ASSOCIATION- Example
• If Category A is causally associated with both
Category B and Category C ( i.e. A precedes
and influences B and C), B and C will also be
associated statistically.
• However, the association between B and C is
noncausal, since there is no prospect of
altering C by manipulating B or altering B by
manipulating C.
NONCAUSAL STATISTICAL
ASSOCIATION- More Specific Example
• Injection of Neoarsphenamine (B) in
outpatient clinics for venereal disease has
been noted to be associated with jaundice-
salvarsan icterus (C). For a long time the drug
was regarded as the cause of the icterus, until
it was discovered that the association was the
result of causal association of both icterus and
injection of neoarsphenamine with a third
factor- treatment for syphilis (A).
Neoarsphenamine
A
Treatment of syphilis
C
Icterus
B
C precedes both A & B and since an alteration in C will produce
alterations in both A & B; factors A & B will also show statistical
association with factor C. However, variations in A will never lead to
resulting variations in B and vice –versa. Hence, the statistical
association you find between factors A & B which is statistically
significant) will only be secondary to the association of both A & B
to C. There is no way for icterus to affect neoarsphenamine or vice-
versa. Hence, the two are secondarily associated through their
individual associations with treatment for syphilis.
CAUSAL ASSOCIATIONS :In the absence of
experimental data, three types of
consideration are useful in distinguishing
between epidemiologic associations that are
causal and those that are secondary:
1. Time sequence. For a relationship to be
considered causal, the events that are
considered causative must precede those
thought to be effects. When the sequence of
events cannot be determined precisely (a
frequent situation in chronic disease), at least
the possibility of such a sequence must exist.
2. Strength of the association. The stronger the
association between two categories of events (for
example, the higher the ratio of the incidence of
B following A to the incidence of B without A),
the more likely it is that the association is causal.
If the suspected cause is a quantitative variable,
the existence of a dose-response relationship –
that is, an association in which the frequency of
the effect increases as the exposure to the cause
increases – is usually considered to favor a causal
relationship, although even in a causal
relationship, such an association may not exist
over the entire range of exposures to the cause.
3. Consonance with existing knowledge. Here
several considerations come into play:
a. A causal hypothesis based on epidemiologic
evidence is supported by knowledge of a
cellular or subcellular mechanism that
makes it reasonable in the light of existing
knowledge in relevant sciences. In the
absence of this support, there should at
least be the belief that such mechanisms
are possible.
b. Evidence that the distribution of the disease
in populations follows the distribution of the
supposed causal factor supports a causal
hypothesis. Major discrepancies between the
two patterns, not reconcilable in terms of
other causal factors or explanations, tend to
weaken a causal hypothesis.
c. Evidence obtained through exclusion may be
pertinent. The more extensive the efforts
have been to identify non-causal explanations
of an association, the more one is likely to
believe, if these efforts have been
unsuccessful, that the association is causal.
DIRECT & INDIRECT CAUSAL
ASSOCIATION
• Causal Associations may be direct and
indirect:
• Direct Causal Association – no third variable
occupying an intermediate stage between
cause and effect.
• Indirect Causal Association- a third variable
occupies an intermediate stage between
cause and effect.
Indirect Causal Association
• If A is causally related to D (A being the cause and D the
effect) and D is causally related to B (D the cause and B the
effect ), there will be a causal relationship between A & B,
but the association is indirect.
• Example: Treatment for syphilis is not for itself productive
of icterus, but it is one of the factors associated with the
use of unclean syringes. Further inves. of salvarsan icterus
indicated that the unclean syringe component rather than
the treatment of the syphilis was responsible for the
icterus.
• However, since a certain number of cases of icterus would
presumably be prevented by failure to treat syphilis, the
association of syphilis treatment with icterus is a causal one
, even though indirectly so.
Difference Between Direct and Indirect
Causal Association
• The distinction between direct and indirect causal associations is a
relative one.
• Apparent directness depends on the limitation of current
knowledge.
• Example: The association of icterus with syphilis treatment was
indirect, and that with the use of unclean syringes direct.Further
inves. however revealed that the icterus was associated not with
unclean syringes per se, but with injection of minute amounts of
human serum that remained in unclean syringes after their
previous use. This discovery resulted in a change of the name of the
condition from Salvarsan Icterus to Serum Hepatitis. Still later, the
icterus was found to be associated directly , not with serum, but
with the presence in the serum of a specific virus.
• Thus the association with the virus is currently considered the
direct one and that with serum indirect.
Significance of Causal Associations in the
Development of Preventive Programs
• The practical significance of causal associations in the
development of preventive programs does not
necessarily depend on the degree of directness.
• First, more direct associations may not yet have been
identified and so there may be no choice but to make
use of obviously indirect associations in preventive
programs. Ex. Knowledge of the association of freedom
from scurvy with diets containing fresh fruit and
vegetables was put to practical use hundreds of years
before the identif. of Vit. C, and prevention of small
pox antedates modern virology by almost 200 years.
Significance of Causal Associations in the
Development of Preventive Programs
• More recently, regarding HIV/AIDS epidemiologists were
already aware of what type of behavior would lead to the
disease without actually knowing the direct cause of the
disease which is the virus. Based on this knowledge , they
were able to issue warnings regarding these unsafe
behaviors.
• Second, more direct causes, although known , may not be
susceptible to economical alteration, whereas the indirect
ones maybe. Ex. Preventive measures against serum
hepatitis are directed against poor syringe hygiene and not
specifically toward removal of the hepatitis virus. Same
with preventive measures against enteric disease.More
directed toward the provision of clean water and food,
rather than against specific microorganisms.
Necessary and Sufficient Cause
Study the three circles in the next
three slides:
Question: What sector or component
as denoted by a letter, is common to
all three circles?
Sufficient Cause
I
E A
D B
C
Sufficient Cause
II
H A
G B
F
Sufficient Cause
III
J A
I C
F
Necessary and Sufficient Cause
• Answer to the Question what sector or component , as
denoted by a letter, is common to all three circles? This is
Sector A.
• In the above three diagrams, A may therefore be
considered as a necessary cause since if one removes A ,
none of the circles or group of factors would be complete
and would now be unable to cause the disease.
• What is interesting about the 3 diagrams is that you don’t
have to know all of the sectors or the contributing
factors.By just eliminating one sector from the circle ( a
sector already known to you) you will successfully eliminate
those group of factors as a sufficient cause. For example
removing D from the first circle, will render that group of
factors inutile in causing the disease.
Necessary and Sufficient Cause
• Necessary Cause of disease – a cause that must
be present for the disease to occur i.e. , all
cases are exposed to it.
• Sufficient Cause of disease – a cause that
inevitably results in disease, i.e., all exposed
inevitably becomes cases
• For communicable diseases, the necessary
cause is the organism causing the disease.
Sufficient causes may involve an array of factors
which contribute to the condition like like
nutrition, compromised immune system, etc.
Concept of Sufficient Cause and
Component Cause
• Sufficient Cause – a set of minimal conditions and
events that inevitably produce disease; “minimal”
implies that none of the conditions and events is
superfluous. In disease etiology, completion of a
sufficient cause may be considered equivalent to the
onset of disease.
• Example: Smoking is not a sufficient cause of lung
cancer. Not everyone who are smokers, even heavy
smokers, will develop the disease but only those who
are “ susceptible” to the effects of smoking. In other
words there are other components of the causal
constellation that act together with smoking to
produce lung cancer.
Concept of Strength of Causes
• The apparent strength of a cause is determined by the
relative prevalence of component causes. A rare factor
becomes a strong cause if its complementary causes
are common. The strength of a cause has little biologic
significance in that the same causal mechanism is
compatible with any of the component causes being
strong or weak.
• The identity of the constituent components of the
cause is the biology of causation; the strength of a
cause is a relative phenomenon that depends on the
time-and place-specific distribution of component
causes in a population.
Concept of Interaction Among Causes
• Two component causes in a single sufficient
cause are considered to have a mutual
biologic interaction. The degree of observable
interaction depends on the actual
mechanisms responsible for the disease. The
extent of biologic interaction between two
factors is a principle dependent on the relative
prevalence of other factors.
Proportion of Disease due to a Specific
Cause