CHAPTER 3: THE

PRESIDENTIAL
BANDWAGON FRAMEWORK
3.2 Explaining Instability in the Legislative Party System (p.37-38)
3.3 Explaining Instability in Presidential Elections (p.38-40)
Chapter 3: The presidential bandwagon framework (p.32)
Permeable
Patronage party
controlled by nomination
president (constant)
Patronage-
driven
election
(constant)

Shortened Candidates affiliate

presidential term with parties with
limit (1 term, 1987 viable presidential
consti) candidate
Increased number
of presidential
candidates

Set of preferred Instability of

party affiliation
Frequent change in option for legislative party
party labels used by legislative system
presidential candidates unstable
candidates
Weak party-vote
ties (constant)
3.2 EXPLAINING INSTABILITY IN THE
LEGISLATIVE PARTY SYSTEM
(p.37-38)
REASONS for instability of
legislative-party competition
1. The number of preferred party affiliation options depends on
the number of viable presidential candidates
2. The party labels adopted by the legislative candidates
depend on those used by presidential candidates
1.
The number of preferred party
affiliation options depends on
the number of viable presidential
candidates
# of preferred partylist options = # of viable presidential candidates
2. The party labels adopted by the legislative
candidates depend on those used by
presidential candidates
instability of the legislative party system:
reflection of 2 types of changes
1. The increased variability in the number of parties from one election to another
2. Increased variability in the set of party labels from one election to another

# of parties # of party labels

2016 election 2018 election 2016 election 2018 election

 HYPOTHESIS 3.3
The increased variability in the number of viable presidential candidates
and in the party label they adopted increased the instability of the
legislative party in post-Marcos elections
 Increased the
Increased variability Increased variability in
Instability of
in the no. of parties the set of party labels the legislative
party system
(post-marcos
era)
 3.3 EXPLAINING INSTABILITY
IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
p. 38-40
Change in the nature of presidential
elections (post-Marcos era)
Current president cannot
Single-term enter the presidential election
limit of Implications:
president -has no considerable advantage over other
under the 1987 candidates
Constitution -cannot use gov. resources for reelection bid
-electoral rules
-cannot deter actual entry of other aspirants = NO
-societal cleavage
-value of party endorsement
coordination between aspirants (more likely to
switch parties)
-harder to determine who the clear frontrunner
=increased # of aspirants (aspirants expect they
would have higher chances of winning)
PH voter-party system ties

Voter-Party Voters were linked to

ties = WEAK individual politicians,
pre and post Marcos era not parties
Weak party-citizen Single-term presidential Instability of
ties limit the presidential
elections
Stable party system | Unstable party system

Pre-Marcos era Post-Marcos era

• 2 terms presidential limit (1973
Consti)
• All incumbents entered the
presidential race
• Presence of incumbents = stabilized
the elections
• 1 term presidential limit (1987 Consti)
• All incumbents banned from seeking
reelection
• Absence of incumbents in the presidential
race = increases the # of aspirants