Stability Indices

How to forecast the likelihood of thunderstorms!!!

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 SOME OF STABILITY INDEX
Lifted Index (LI)*
Total Totals (TT)
K Index (KI)
Showalter Index (SI)
Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT)
CAP Strength (700 mb LI)
Lapse Rate (LR)*
Relative Humidity (RH)*
Lifted Condensation Level (LCL)*
Level of Free Convection (LFC)*
Equilibrium Level (EL)*
Wet Bulb Zero (WBZ)
Melting Level (MLT)
Warm Cloud Depth (WCD)*
Precipitable Water (PW)*
Equivalent Potential Temperature (e)*
Moisture Flux “Convergence” (MFC)*
* Can be calculated over many different layers/levels/parcels
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)*
Convective Inhibition (CIN)* HI = Haines Index*
HMI = Hybrid Microburst Index
Bulk Richardson Number (BRN)* LSI = Lid Strength Index
DCI = Deep Convective Index
Bulk Richardson Number Shear (BRNSHR) TQ Index = for “low-topped
instability”
Bulk Vertical Wind Shear*
Total Vertical Wind Shear* Indices of Indices (“Inbreeding”)
Storm-Relative Wind* Energy-Helicity Index (EHI)*
Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH)* Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP)*
Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP)*
(SCP)
Normalized CAPE (nCAPE)* Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)*
Significant Hail Parameter (SHIP)
Wind Index (WINDEX) Significant Severe Parameter (SSP)
Dry Microburst Index (DMI) Strong Tornado Parameter (STP)
Theta-E Index (TEI)
Microburst Day Potential Index (MDPI)
Wet Microburst Severity Index (WMSI)
Mesoscale Convective System Forecast Index (MCS Index)
 a recent index published in WAF (2007)
 This list is not nearly exhaustive!
 Stability Indices
Basic Idea:

Single number that characterizes the stability (or instability) of the atmosphere

Advantages:

• Easily computed
• Easily applied in forecasting

Disadvantages:

• Details of atmospheric profile may be ignored

Application Guidelines:
• Forecaster must always closely examine the entire sounding
• Must be used in conjunction with other forecasting methods

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Showalter Index (SI):

Temperature difference between:

• The environmental air at 500 mb and

• The temperature of an air parcel at 500 mb lifted
dry-adiabatically from 850 mb to saturation (i.e., the LCL)
and then pseudo-adiabatically thereafter up to 500 mb.

SI  Te 500  Tp 500

where: Te 500 Environmental temperature at 500 mb in K

Tp 500 Parcel temperature at 500 mb in K

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Showalter Index (SI):

Skew-T Procedure: 1. Find the LCL for a parcel lifted from 850 mb
2. Find the LFC for the same parcel
3. From the LCL move up a pseudo-adiabat to 500 mb
4. Subtract the parcel temperature (Tp) at 500 mb from
the environmental temperature (Te) at 500 mb

Td T SI = Te500 – Tp500

SI = (-32ºC) – (-25ºC)
SI = (241 K) – (248 K)
Te500 Tp500 SI = –7
500 mb

LCL
850 mb

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Showalter Index (SI):

SI  Te 500  Tp 500

Forecast Guidelines:
+1 to +3 Showers are probable, Thunderstorms possible
need strong forced ascent
0 to -3 Unstable – Thunderstorms probable
-4 to -6 Very Unstable – Heavy thunderstorms probable
less than -6 Extremely Unstable – Strong thunderstorms probable
Tornadoes are possible

Usage Guidelines:
• Good for forecasting mid-level convection
• Does not account for moisture in boundary layer

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Lifted Index (LI):

Definition:
Temperature difference between:
• The environmental air at 500 mb and
• The temperature of an air parcel at 500 mb lifted dry-adiabatically
from the mean conditions in the boundary layer to saturation
(i.e., the LCL) and then pseudo-adiabatically thereafter up to 500 mb

LI  Te 500  Tp 500

where: Te 500 Environmental temperature at 500 mb in K

Tp 500 Parcel temperature at 500 mb in K

• Mean boundary layer conditions are determined by finding the

average wsw and θ in the lowest 100 mb of the sounding

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Lifted Index (LI):

Skew-T Procedure: 1. Identify the lowest 100 mb of the sounding

2. Find the mean wsw and mean θ in the lowest 100 mb
3. Follow the mean wsw and mean θ up to the LCL
4. From the LCL move up a pseudo-adiabat to 500 mb
5. Subtract the parcel temperature (Tp) at 500 mb from
the environmental temperature (Te) at 500 mb

Td T LI = Te500 – Tp500

LI = (-32ºC) – (-26ºC)
LI = (241 K) – (247 K)
Te500 Tp500 LI = –6
500 mb

mean wsw LCL

880 mb mean θ
980 mb

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Lifted Index (LI): Finding the mean wsw and θ:

1. Identify the lowest 100 mb

2. Identify the maximum and minimum θ within the 100 mb
3. Mean θ is located 50 mb above the surface halfway between θmax and θmin
4. Identify the maximum and minimum wsw within the 100 mb
5. Mean wsw is 50 mb above the surface halfway between wsw-max and wsw-min
Note: The mean θ and mean wsw may NOT fall along the sounding

wsw-min wsw-max
θmin θmax

Td T

100 mb

50 mb

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Lifted Index (LI):

LI  Te 500  Tp 500

Forecast Guidelines:
0 to -2 Thunderstorms possible, need strong forced ascent
-2 to -5 Unstable – Thunderstorms probable
less than -5 Very Unstable – Strong thunderstorms probable

Usage Guidelines:
• Good for forecasting surface-based convection
• Accounts for moisture in boundary layer
• Addresses limitations of Showalter Index

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
K Index (K):

Definition:
Measure of thunderstorm potential based on:
• Vertical temperature lapse rates (T850-T500)
• Moisture content of the lower atmosphere (Td 500)
• Vertical extent of moist layer (T700-Td 700)

K  (T850  T500 )  Td 850  (T700  Td 700 )

where: T850 Temperature at 850 mb in ºC

T500 Temperature at 500 mb in ºC
Td 850 Dewpoint temperature at 850 mb in ºC
T700 Temperature at 700 mb in ºC
Td 700 Dewpoint temperature at 700 mb in ºC

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
K Index (K):

K  (T850  T500 )  Td 850  (T700  Td 700 )

Forecast Guidelines:
K < 15 0% chance of thunderstorms
15 – 20 < 20% chance of thunderstorms
21 – 25 20-40% chance of thunderstorms
26 – 30 40-60% chance of thunderstorms
31 – 35 60-80% chance of thunderstorms
36 – 40 80-90% chance of thunderstorms
K > 40 > 90% chance of thunderstorms

Usage Guidelines:
• Does not require a plotted sounding
• Biased toward “air mass” thunderstorms (i.e. not near fronts)
• Works best for non-severe thunderstorms

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Total Totals (TT):

Definition:
Used to identify areas of potential thunderstorm development:
• Temperature lapse rate between 850 and 500 mb (T850 and T500)
• Low-level moisture (Td 850)

TT  (T850  Td 850 )  2T500

where: T850 Temperature at 850 mb in ºC

T500 Temperature at 500 mb in ºC
Td 850 Dewpoint temperature at 850 mb in ºC

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Total Totals (TT):

TT  (T850  Td 850 )  2T500

Forecast Guidelines:
TT < 45 No thunderstorm activity
45 – 50 Weak potential for thunderstorm activity
50 – 55 Moderate potential for thunderstorm activity
TT > 55 Strong potential for thunderstorm activity

Usage Guidelines:
• Does not require a plotted sounding
• Good for “air mass” thunderstorms (i.e. not near fronts)
• More reliable than K-Index for severe thunderstorm potential

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT):

Definition:
Measure of severe weather potential based on:
• Low-level moisture (Td 850)
• Instability (Total Totals)
• Low-level jet stream (vv850)
• Mid-level jet stream (vv500)
• Warm air advection (dd500 and dd850)

SWEAT  12Td 850  20(TT  49)  2vv 850  vv 500  125[sin (dd 500  dd 850 )  0.2]

where: Td 850 Dewpoint temperature at 850 mb in ºC

TT Total Totals in ºC
vv850 Wind speed at 850 mb in knots
vv500 Wind speed at 500 mb in knots
dd850 Wind direction at 850 mb in degrees
dd500 Wind direction at 500 mb in degrees

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT):

SWEAT  12Td 850  20(TT  49)  2vv 850  vv 500  125[sin (dd 500  dd 850 )  0.2]

Rules:

No term may be negative!

• Set 12Td 850 = 0 if Td 850 is negative
• Set 20(TT-49) = 0 if TT < 49
• Set 125[sin(dd500 – dd850) +0.2] = 0 if any of the following are not met:
• dd850 is in the range 130º to 250º
• dd500 is in the range 210º to 310º
• dd500 – dd850 > 0
• vv500 and vv850 are both > 15 knots

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT):

SWEAT  12Td 850  20(TT  49)  2vv 850  vv 500  125[sin (dd 500  dd 850 )  0.2]

Forecast Guidelines:
SWEAT > 300 Severe Thunderstorms
SWEAT > 400 Tornadic Thunderstorms

Usage Guidelines:
• Does not require a plotted sounding
• Only indicates potential for severe weather
• Includes vertical wind shear terms required for deep convection
• Forced ascent is needed to realize the potential

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Convective Inhibition (CIN):

Definition:
• The energy that must be overcome to make a parcel buoyant
• Energy is overcome by forced ascent
• The negative area below the LFC between the environmental sounding
and the temperature of a lifted parcel

Td T

LFC
Negative
Area
LCL

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Convective Inhibition (CIN):

Skew-T Procedure: 1. Find the LCL for a parcel lifted from the surface
2. Find the LFC for the same parcel
3. Identify those layers below the LFC in which the
parcel temperature is less than the environmental
temperature
4. The CIN is the total negative area

Td T

LFC
CIN
LCL

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE):

Definition:
• Buoyant energy available in the atmosphere
• Forced ascent is usually required to tap into this energy
• The positive area above the LFC between the environmental sounding
and the temperature of a lifted parcel

Td T

EL

Positive
Area

LFC

LCL

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE):

Skew-T Procedure: 1. Find the LCL for a parcel lifted from the surface
2. Find the LFC and EL for the same parcel
3. Identify those layers below the LFC and EL in which the
parcel temperature is greater than the environmental
temperature
4. The CAPE is the total positive area

Td T

EL

CAPE

LFC

LCL

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin
 Stability Indices
Convective Inhibition (CIN):

Forecast Guidelines:

CIN > -10 J/kg Early development of storms

-10 to -100 J/kg Late development of storms
(severe weather possible)
CIN < 100 J/kg No storms (“capped”)

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE):

Forecast Guidelines:

CAPE < 500 J/kg Unlikely development of strong storms

500 – 2000 J/kg Potential for strong or severe storms
CAPE > 2000 J/kg Strong or severe storms likely

Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin