Between well-being and the planet

v0: Provisioning
systems as locus
of research and
action in
degrowth
v1: Notes from
an abyss
Dr Julia Steinberger
Associate Professor in Ecological Economics
Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds
J.K.Steinberger@leeds.ac.uk @jksteinberger
http://lili.leeds.ac.uk 1
2
If we know so much, how come we
are so ineffective in acting to prevent
disaster?

Two main culprits, from the world of

ideas:
1. Scientific positivism, insistence on
exact knowledge and high
statistical significance.

2. Market fundamentalism: social

well-being best achieved through
“free” markets, necessary for
personal freedom (alternative is
tyranny) – aka neoliberalism.
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But… did we really know so much?
Not if we were relying on IPCC Assessment Reports for
summaries of natural science: accused of consistently
downplaying scientific evidence.
Several mechanisms of downplaying.
(1) Reporting likely outcomes, rather than “fat-tail” risks.

(2) Reporting too little

(average of evidence
rather than full scope),
too late.
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 (3) Giving larger credence to models with exact underlying theory (“fully coupled”)
and narrow scope, rather than known effects with heuristic representation of links
(“semi-empirical”).
Examples of omissions:
 tipping points & positive feedback loops such as methane emissions from
permafrost or methane hydrates,
 reduction in sink function of terrestrial ecosystems and oceans,
 underestimates of possible warming levels,
 sea level rise.

Not being able to model these “fully” means they are neglected. Semi-
empirical modelling, based on existing observed relationships, is
discounted.

Resonates with comments on my research: observation of links between

energy use & well-being is criticizes for not being “fully explained
through theory and causal pathways”. But does that mean it’s not true,
or shouldn’t be taken into account? Any research on complex social-
physical systems will suffer from this. 5
 Taken together, positivism (emphasis
on statistically likely outcomes) &
insistence on fully-coupled models
both lead to understating climate
impacts (including already occurring
ones).

They also lead to “carbon budget” and “safe

below X degree warming” views of the world,
taken on by social sciences.
The illusion is that we have a space and time to work within. Encourages
incremental, gradual, progressive narratives, including decoupling, green
growth, cost-benefit, economic and behavioural nudges, etc. 6
 Reactions/conclusions?
• As a scientist active in the economic/social
side of climate change, I feel personally
misled and betrayed by the IPCC portrayal
of the natural science.
• Incremental “how much emissions space is
left” or allocative “how can we best
redistribute” research is utterly inadequate
– but that’s what so many of us have been
and are doing. Alice goes through the looking glass
• Where to go from here?

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 What to do?
Need new scientific reflection and strategy.
Following Mark Hixon, University of Hawaii,
3 step program:

1. Ask uncomfortable questions regarding

our role and effectiveness in historical
perspective.

2. Prepare ourselves
• Personally (our own convictions Tove Jansson
and goals)
• Scientifically (factual knowledge)
• Skills (communication)

3. Act: advocacy is not optional anymore.

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Thoughts and questions on next steps
Communication is key.
Climate change & other environmental
issues as “existential threats” to human
civilization are under-reported and
misunderstood in terms of urgency & scope
(“just recycle more!”).
Media fail (deliberately) to make link
between heat waves, forest fires and climate
change.
Policy-makers at all levels (municipal- Hat Tip Peter Kalmus
regional-national) fail to understand what’s
at stake and what they can do.
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 Communication
opportunity
Bluedot Music Festival at Jodrell
Bank Radio Telescope near
Manchester.

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 What does a
“good life”
mean for
Earthlings?

Let’s ask an
academic …

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 Earthling well-being
looks a bit like a
many-legged bug …

Hello! I’m the

Good Life Bug! I
need ALL my legs
to live a good life.

If even one of
them fails, I’m
in trouble. 12
 What does 200 years
of burning fossil
fuels look like in the
big picture of
Earthling history?

Let’s take the

time machine 1
and see….
BC

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 Life expectancy Of which, only 3.4 Only $1’000 cannot be
linked to energy.
has increased by years can be explained
13 years by growth in energy.
internationally.

Key Fact 5:
Economic growth,
Steinberger et al (2018) in preparation

not well-being, is
tied to energy use.
Income has
Of which, $7’900
increased by can attributed to
Meaning 9.6 years can’t $8,900 per person growth in energy
be linked to energy. internationally. use. 14
 Being trapped in high energy use
Car dependency
1. Car
industry
Key Fact 6:
Living well
5. Car 2. Roads &
within limits culture parking
means facing
big & powerful Can
industries, and Earthlings
ways of life. 4. Neglect do it? Yes
3. Land use
public
transport
for cars you can!
Mattioli et al (2018) in 15
preparation
Overall conclusion
• Research should be vehicle for effective communication and radical,
urgent action (means, not end).
• Communication essential at all levels (education from nursery to uni,
politicians, journalists, all kinds of interest & community groups. Our
job to organise meetings.)
• Most important action is for urgent change: banning fossil fuel
extraction & use, eliminating investment in fossil industries, but also
socially in terms of preparing socially for a different planet (conflicts,
immigration, food, different economies). Enlightenment view of social
progress is insufficient here & now.

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@GretaThunberg

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Ideas Evidence Action
• Doughnut Economics  IPCC reports POLITICAL
K. Raworth  Grist.org • Speak up! Insist.
• Human Earth  Vox.com • Join 350.org, CAN, PlanB
Maslin & Lewis  Kate Marvel
COMMUNITY & WORK
• Prosperity without  Gavin Schmidt
• Participate
Growth T. Jackson  Katharine Hayhoe
• Steer decisions & policies
• This Changes Everything  Eric Holthaus
(divestment, travel,
N. Klein  David Roberts
purchasing)
• Heat, Greed & Human
Need I. Gough PERSONAL & FAMILY
• Degrowth G. Kallis Fut •
•
Eat plant-based food;
Stop driving & flying;
• Enough is Enough Dietz
& O’Neill ure •
•
Heat less, consume less;
Insulation, induction hob;
• Renewable energy. 18