CERD-502

Date: 31/01/2018
Teacher’s Introduction
Dr. Ch. Haider Ali

 Ph.D. In Bio-Chemical Engineering

 East China University of Science & Technology, Shanghai China.

 M.Sc. In Chemical Engineering (Specialization in Energy)

 The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Stockholm Sweden

 B.Sc. In Chemical Engineering

 University of Engineering & Technology (UET) Lahore Pakistan
Today’s Topic
 Course Contents
 Definition and measurements of energy stocks and flows;
 Structure and format of the various types of energy
balances;
 Sectoral accounting of energy consumption by the major
energy consuming sectors;
 Accounting and assembling of traditional energy;
 Basic econometric methods; methodology for demand
analysis;
 Econometric energy demand forecasting;
 Time series models;
 End-use approach' for demand forecasting.
 Energy Flows in the Economy ? Basic Concepts,
Measurements and Main Issues
 1. Need for Energy Data
 2. Classification of Energy By Sources and Use
 3. Features of Energy Statistics
 4. Major Energy Flows,
 5. Boundary Problem, Problems of Measurements, Usual
Conventions
 II Energy Accounting Framework
 1. Energy Commodity Account
 2. Overall Energy Balance: Structure, Format and
Conventions
 3. Alternative Approaches for Energy Accounting
 4. Sectoral Energy Accounting
 5. Traditional Energy Accounting
 6. Issues in Energy Accounting
 Overview of Basic Econometric Methods
 1. The 2-variable Regression Model
 2. The Multiple Regression Model
 3. Tests of Regression Coefficients and Regression Equation
 4. Heteroskedasticity, Autocorrelation, and Multicollinearity
 5. Box Cox Transformation and the Choice of Functional Form
 IV Methodology for Energy Demand Analysis
 1. Econometric Energy Demand Modeling
 1.1. Structural and Reduced Form Models
 1.2. Partial Flow Adjustment Models
 1.3. Inter-fuel Substitution Models
 1.4. Functional Forms and their Implications
 2. End-Use Method of Energy Demand Analysis
 2.1. Sectoral Demand Analysis
 2.2. Decomposition of Energy Demand Effects
 2.3. Analysis of Unit Consumption and Decomposition
 3. Other Energy Demand Analysis methods "
 3.1. Trend Analysis
 3.2. Process Analysis
 3.3. The Elasticities Approach
 Energy Demand Forecasting Methodologies
 1. Econometric Method
 1.1. Forecasting With a Single Equation Model
 1.2. Instrumental Variables and Model Specification
 2. Time Series Method
 2.1. Stochastic Time Series
 2.2. Co-Integrated Time Series
 2.3. Linear Time Series Models
 3. Techno-Economic Approach for Forecasting
 3.1. Analytical Framework
 3.2. Sectoral Energy Demand Forecasting
Methodologies
 VI Case Studies
Assessment

 Assignment 1 15%
 Class Participation 5% Dr. Haider Ali
 Mid Term 30%

 Assignment 2 10% Dr. Mohsin Ali Kazmi

 End Term 40%
Text Book
 Energy At The Crossroads
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES AND UNCERTAINTIES

Author: VACLAV SMIL

Assignment No 1
 Write the review of the Book

 Energy At The Crossroads

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES AND UNCERTAINTIES

Author: VACLAV SMIL

 Format: Word File

 Words: 5000 minimum
 Deadline for submission = 14th March, 2018
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
ENERGY TRANSITIONS IN
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:
SOME THOUGHTS
A Standard Definition

The concept of ‘energy transitions' is based on

the notion that a single energy source, or
group of sources, dominated the market
during a particular period or era, eventually to
be challenged and then replaced by another
major source or sources.
From Emmett Duffy, “The Next Energy Transition” (2007)
(via Cutler Cleveland)
From Paul Kedrosky, “Energy Transitions, Then and Now,” (July, 2010)
From Robert Bryce, “Wood to Coal to Oil to Natural Gas and Nuclear:
The Slow Pace of Energy Transitions” (Aug., 2010)
Periodization Construct
Period I (pre-1820): dominated by human/animal power, wind-,
wood-, and waterpower.

Period II (1820-1914): Industrial era dependent on wood, waterpower,

and utlimately coal.

Period III (1914-9145): Oil emerges as a leading fuel; electrical power

production dramatically increases.

Period IV (1945-1970s): A ‘postindustrial’ economy dependent on oil,

punctuated by the 1970s ‘energy crisis.’

Period V: (1970s-?): Post-energy crisis America, still tied to carbon

with some rumblings for change in later years.
Period I
Period II
Period III
Period III
Period IV
Period V
Concerns: Energy Transitions Concept Too
Rational?
 Concept utilized too narrowly?

 Is it a more fluid process than rigidly ordered?

 What are its quantitative and qualitative

characteristics?

 Need to contextualize energy transitions.

Paraphrased from Coping With Abundance
(1985)
 The United States was blessed with abundant
energy sources. Whether immediately
exploitable or only potentially so, these
sources were vital.

 Abundance affected the way Americans used

energy, how businesses developed and
marketed it, and how government established
policies about it.
Paraphrased from Coping With Abundance
(1985)
 While bestowing many benefits, the array of
energy sources posed problems of choice. The
luxury of choice was preferable to the
necessity to choose, but it often proved a curse
when policy makers tried to arrive at coherent
energy strategies.

 The energy history of the United States has

been an ongoing effort to cope with
abundance.
More Concerns
 Regional versus national issues.

 Dominant energy source or dominant fuel?

 Any such things as a ‘single-source’ transition?

 Fuels and flexible use.

 Energy transitions and path dependency.

Path Dependency

 Path dependence can provide perspective on the

serviceable life of technologies and the constraint of
choices available to later generations of decision
makers.

 According to economic historian Louis Cain: “Choices

made in the first generation eliminate some
alternatives (yet to be discovered) that will be
available...in the second generation.”
Conclusions
 Will there be a post-carbon transition and
when?

 What about bridge fuels?

 What about conservation as a source of

energy?

 What about energy and technical efficiencies?