Glimpse of the presentation:

„A new thriftiness and desire for simplicity will

combine with pent-up demand to shape buying
behavior
„Predicts how consumers will behave post
recession by understanding the previous
recessions and its past experience will affect this
time
„Talks about eight trends and effect of recession
on them.
Pre recession Scenario:
„Consumer behavior was the product of more
than 15 yrs of uninterrupted prosperity.
„Despite the occasional slowdown ,growth was
an almost permanent feature.
„Assert value and incomes grew more rapidly
than inflation
„From 1995 to 2005 ,real disposable incomes
increased by a third in us and uk
°ffect on consumer behavior:

„More curious about gadgets and new

technology
„Shelling out for enriching experiences
„Inclination towards premium products
„consumers can afford to pay extra for socially
conscious consumptions.
Analyzing the present recession
„Recessions fall into two broad groups
„A resent international monetary fund
analysis of 122 recessions in 21 developed
countries since 1960 found that the typical
recession lasted about a year and resulted
in a dip in GDP of roughly 2%
„The great depression of the 1930 and
Japan's lost decade.
Author·s speak««.
„Howto predict consumer behavior?
How previous downturns have altered
consumer psychology and activity?
How the recession compares with previous
one?
The journey of consumer have taken to
present, which will condition their reaction to
the recession and shape their trajectory out of
it.
 Trends and trajectories
mature
D°CLIN° D°MAN
OF Dominant D FOR
D°F°R° SIMPLICI
Slowed trend NC°
trend TY

FOCUS
GR°°N ON
CONSU BOARD
MPTION ROOM Accelerated
slowed

°THICA
M°RCUR
L IAL
CONSU CONSU
MPTION MPTION

° TR°M DISCR°
° TIONA
° P°RI° Advancing RY
NC° Arrested trend trends THRIFT
S°°
ING

new
8 TR°NDS D°°LOP°D BY TH° PAUL AND MICHA°L
Dominant Trend:
A demand for simplicity: Downturns are stressful and
typically increase people·s desire for simplicity.
this trend will continue to accelerate through the
recovery into the long term.
A focus on the boardroom: the financial crisis has put
spotlight on corporate governance, in particular of some
executives and complicity of their companies 'boards.
this trend should accelerate through the recession
but will most likely lose velocity over the long term.
D°MAND FOR SIMPLICITY

FOCUS ON TH° BOARDROOM

Advancing trends:
Discretionary thrift: some consumers have no choice
but to be thrifty. Increasingly, consumers has revealed
mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption.
this trend should regain momentum over the
long term as consumers continue to find personal
satisfaction.
Mercurial consumption:In prerecession boom,
consumers are fickle shoppers, the instantaneous
spread of word of mouth has only accelerated trend.
this trend will allow to pick up steam well
recovery.
DISCR°TIONARY THRIFT

M°RCURIALCONSUMPTION
Slowed trend:
Green consumerism: °nvironmentalism is by now
deeply rooted in consumer minds-set and in
public policy.
we can expect this trend will recover and
accelerate post recession.
The decline of deference: public respect for
institutions ,authority ,gnvt.. ,business has been
declining ,consumers gain confidence and their
own ability to make smart choices.
this trend will anticipate similar short term
recovery.
GR°°N CONSUM°RISM

D°CLIN° OF D°F°R°NC°
Arrested trends:
°thical consumerism: this is less embedded in the
consumer culture and less convincingly linked
with self interest.
this trend is to rebound only slowly
recovery.
°xtreme-experience seeking: the desire to
accumulate experience in addition to material
possessions-will continue to flourish.
this trend is unlikely to rebound soon.
°THICAL CONSUM°RISM

° TR°M°-° °RI°NC°
S°° IN