Statistics & Probabi

Basic concepts in
Hypothesis
testing
Submitted by: Almira C. Romero
11- Patella

Submitted to: Ms. Louela Dolotina

a. Definition of statistical
Lesson
hypothesis
b. Consequences of making a
Outline:
decision
c. The difference of null
hypothesis
from alternative hypothesis
d . Tw o p o s s i b l e e r r o r s t h a t
could be
committed in a test of
Definition of
statistical
hypothesis
 Definition of statistical hypothesis

Statistical inference is concerned with either estimation or

evaluation of a statement or claim about a parameter or a
distribution. Evaluation of a claim about a parameter or a
distribution is done through a statistical test of hypothesis.
 Definition of statistical hypothesis

Describe the El Niño phenomenon

and its possible consequences
further

“The country will experience El Niño phenomenon in the

next few months.”
 Definition of statistical hypothesis

1. The occurrence of El Niño phenomenon is not sure.

2. There is a possibility that El Niño phenomenon
may not occur.
3. The effects of El Niño phenomenon are devastating
to the country.
4. Some of the consequences of the El Niño phenomenon
are tolerable while other consequences are not.
5. The validity of the statement could be tested based
on some empirical facts.
 Definition of statistical hypothesis

The pronouncement is a claim that may be true or false.

Such claim could be referred to
as a statistical hypothesis and is usually expressed in terms
of the value of a parameter or the distribution of the
population values.
 Definition of statistical hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or conjecture about

the distribution of one or more random variables.
If a statistical hypothesis completely specifies the
distribution, it is referred to as a simple hypothesis;
if not, it is referred to as a composite hypothesis.
Consequences of
making a decision
 Consequences of making a decision

There are two possible actions that one

can
do with the statement
These actions are either to accept the statement or to reject
it. These actions are brought about by a decision whether the
statement is true or false.
 Consequences of making a decision
Possible consequences of accepting that the statement
is true include:
(a) increase the importation of rice in anticipation
of supply shortage;
(b) buy materials for water storage;
(c) use drought-resistant varieties of rice;
(d) invest in programs to make Filipinos ready; and the like.

when the statement is rejected because we think it is false, possible consequences are
(a) We are not prepared for rice and water shortage;
(b) Farmers experience great loss on production;
(c) We do not do anything.
 Consequences of making a decision

Some of the consequences are tolerable while other consequences are severe. Experiencing
a few days of water shortage is tolerable but having rice shortage for a month or two is
unbearable.

The degree of the possible consequence is the basis in making the decision. If the
consequences of accepting the claim that El Niño phenomenon is going to happen are
tolerable, then we may not reject the pronouncement.

However, if the consequences are severe, then we reject the claim.

 Consequences of making a decision

A test of hypothesis is a procedure based on a

random sample of observations with a given level of probability
of committing an error in making the decision, whether the
hypothesis is true or false.
difference of null
hypothesis from
alternative
hypothesis
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

In hypothesis testing, we first formulate the hypotheses to be

tested.

There are two kinds of a statistical hypothesis:

null & alternative hypothesis
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

Null
Null hypothesis
hypothesis
The null hypothesis generally expresses the idea of no difference
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

The null hypothesis, denoted as 𝐻0 is the statement that the

value of the parameter is, in fact, equal to the claimed value. We
assume that the null hypothesis is true until we
prove that it is not.
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

alternative
alternative
hypothesis
hypothesis
expresses the idea of some
difference
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis, denoted as 𝐻1 is the statement that

the value of the parameter differs in some way from the null
hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis can use the symbols, 𝑜𝑟 ≠
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

1. A null hypothesis is generally a statement

of no change. Thus, a statement of equality or one which involves
the equality is usually considered in the null hypothesis.
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

Possible forms of the null hypothesis

include
(a) equality;
(b) less than orequal; and
(c) greater than or equal.
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

2. The statistical hypothesis is about a parameter or distribution

of the population values. Usually, the parameter is represented
by a symbol, like for the population mean, we use μ.
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

Hence, the null and alternative hypotheses could be stated using

symbols as

“𝐻o: μ = 100 against 𝐻1 : μ ≠ 100.”

 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis
3. The null and alternative hypotheses are
complementary and
must not overlap.
(a) 𝐻0 : Parameter = Value versus 𝐻1: Parameter ≠ Value;
(b) 𝐻0 : Parameter = Value versus 𝐻1 : Parameter < Value;
(c) 𝐻0 : Parameter = Value versus 𝐻1 : Parameter > Value;
(d) 𝐻0 : Parameter ≤ Value versus 𝐻1 : Parameter > Value;
(e) 𝐻0 : Parameter ≥ Value versus 𝐻1 : Parameter < Value
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis
there are two actions that one can make on the
hypothesis. One
can either reject or fail to reject (accept) a
Action hypothesis.
Hypothesis is TRUE Hypothesis is FALSE
Reject the hypothesis Error Committed No Error Committed
Fail to reject (Accept) the No Error Committed Error Committed
hypothesis
 difference of null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis

There are no errors committed when we reject a false

hypothesis and when we fail to reject a true
hypothesis.
 Two possible
errors in a test of
hypothesis
 Types of error

an error is committed when we reject a true

hypothesis and such error is called a Type I
error.
 Types of error

when we fail to reject (accept) a false hypothesis, we

are committing a
Type II error.
 Types of error

TypeI Error
Type I Error
incorrectly rejecting a true null hypothesis (false
negative)
 Types of error

TypeI Error
Type I Error
denoted by α “alpha”
 Types of error

TypeIi IiError
Type Error
incorrectly failing to reject an untrue null
hypothesis
(false positive)
 Types of error

TypeIi IiError
Type Error
denoted by β “beta”
 Key points

- A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or conjecture about the

distribution of one or more random variables.

- There are two possible actions that one can do with the
statement. These actions are
either to accept the statement or to reject it.
 Key points

- There are two kinds of a statistical hypothesis:

the null and the alternative hypothesis.
- Null hypothesis is denoted as 𝐻0
- Alternative hypothesis is denoted as 𝐻1
-The null and alternative hypotheses are complementary and
must not overlap.
 Key points

- There are two basic kinds of error:

Type I Error (α ): incorrectly rejecting a true null hypothesis
(false negative);

and Type II Error (β ): incorrectly failing to reject an untrue

null hypothesis (false positive)