ANALISIS PROSPEKTIF

1. DEA EPRIMIA 160810301013

2. SITI NURHOLISA 160810301015
3. ELSA OKTAVIA 160810301016
 Pentingnya Analisis Prospektif

Valuasi Sekuritas Penilaian Solvabilitas

Arus kas masa depan dan model Berguna bagi kreditor untuk
pendapatan residual membutuhkan menilai kemampuan perusahaan
estimasi laporan keuangan masa guna memenuhi persyaratan
depan. utang baik jangka pendek atau
jangka panjang.

Penilaian Manajemen
Estimasi kinerja keuangan menguji kelayakan rencana
strategis perusahaan.
 PROSES PROYEKSI
PROYEKSI LAPORAN LABA RUGI

TREN HISTORI TINGKAT PETA BAURAN TOKO

AKTIVITAS PERSAINGAN BARU DAN TOKO
EKONOMI LAMA
MAKRO YANG
DIHARAPKAN
 The Projection Process
Target Corporation Income Statements

(in millions) 2005 2004 2003

Sales.......................................................................................... $46,839 $42,025 $37,410
Cost of goods sold ..................................................................... 31,445 28,389 25,498
Gross profit................................................................................ 15,394 13,636 11,912
Selling, general and administrative expense ............................. 10,534 9,379 8,134
Depreciation and amortization expense ..................................... 1,259 1,098 967
Interest expense......................................................................... 570 556 584
Income before tax ...................................................................... 3,031 2,603 2,227
Income tax expense.................................................................... 1,146 984 851
Income (loss) from extraordinary items
and discontinued operations................................................. 1,313 190 247
Net income................................................................................. $ 3,198 $ 1,809 $ 1,623
Outstanding shares ................................................................... 891 912 910

Selected Ratios (in percent)

Sales growth............................................................................ 11.455% 12.336%
Gross profit margin.................................................................. 32.866 32.447
Selling, general and administrative expense/Sales ................. 22.49 22.318
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ........................... 6.333 5.245
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt .............................. 5.173 4.982
Income tax expense/Pretax income........................................... 37.809 37.803
 PROSES PROYEKSI
Proyeksi Laporan Laba Rugi
Langkahnya sbb:

1. Penjualan proyek
2. Biaya pokok penjualan proyek dan margin laba kotor menggunakan rata-rata
historis sebagai persen dari penjualan
3. Biaya proyek SG & A menggunakan rata-rata historis sebagai persen dari
penjualan
4. Beban depresiasi proyek sebagai persentase rata-rata historis aset yang
dapat didepresiasi mulai dari tahun-ke-tahun
5. Biaya bunga proyek sebagai persentase dari utang berbunga awal tahun
dengan menggunakan suku bunga yang ada jika tarif tetap dan diproyeksikan
jika berubah-ubah
6. Beban pajak proyek sebagai rata-rata beban pajak historis terhadap
penghasilan sebelum pajak
 PROSES PROYEKSI
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement

1. Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455

2. Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866%
3. Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157
4. Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49%
5. Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 =
$22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333%
6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173%
7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493
8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809%
9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none
10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328
 The Projection Process
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement

(in millions) Forecasting Step 2006 Estimate

Income statement
Total revenues......................................................................................... 1 $52,204
Cost of goods sold .................................................................................. 3 35,047
Gross profit............................................................................................. 2 17,157
Selling, general, and administrative expense ............................................ 4 11,741
Depreciation and amortization expense .................................................. 5 1,410
Interest expense...................................................................................... 6 493
Income before tax ................................................................................... 7 3,513
Income tax expense................................................................................. 8 1,328
Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations ...... 9 0
Net income.............................................................................................. 10 $ 2,185
Outstanding shares ......................................................................... 891

Forecasting Assumptions (in percent)

Sales growth........................................................................................... 1 11.455%
Gross profit margin................................................................................. 1 32.866
Selling, general, and administrative expense/Sales ............................... 1 22.49
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E .......................................... 1 6.333
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt............................................. 1 5.173
Income tax expense/Pretax income ......................................................... 1 37.809
 PROSES PROYEKSI
Proyeksi Laporan Neraca

Langkahnya sbb:

1. Memproyeksikan aktiva lancar selain uang tunai, menggunakan penjualan

yang diproyeksikan atau harga pokok penjualan dan rasio perputaran yang
sesuai seperti yang dijelaskan di bawah ini.
2. Proyek PP & E meningkat dengan perkiraan belanja modal yang berasal dari
tren historis atau informasi yang diperoleh di bagian MD & A dalam laporan
tahunan.
3. Memproyeksikan kewajiban lancar selain dari utang, menggunakan
penjualan yang diproyeksikan atau harga pokok penjualan dan rasio
perputaran yang sesuai seperti yang dijelaskan di bawah ini
4. Dapatkan jatuh tempo utang jangka panjang saat ini dari catatan kaki utang
jangka panjang.
5. Asumsikan utang jangka pendek lainnya tidak berubah dari saldo tahun
sebelumnya kecuali mereka telah menunjukkan tren yang nyata
 PROSES PROYEKSI
Proyeksi Laporan Neraca

6. Asumsikan saldo utang jangka panjang awal sama dengan periode

sebelumnya utang jangka panjang dikurangi jatuh tempo saat ini dari
Langkah 4.
7. Asumsikan kewajiban jangka panjang lainnya sama dengan saldo
tahun sebelumnya kecuali mereka telah menunjukkan tren yang nyata.
8. Asumsikan perkiraan awal saham biasa sama dengan saldo tahun
sebelumnya
9. Asumsikan laba ditahan sama dengan saldo tahun sebelumnya plus
(minus) laba bersih (rugi) dan dividen yang kurang diharapkan.
10. Asumsikan akun ekuitas lain sama dengan saldo tahun sebelumnya
kecuali mereka telah menunjukkan tren yang nyata.
 The Projection Process
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
(in millions) 2005 2004 2003
Cash ..................................................................................
$ 2,245 $ 708 $ 758
Receivables .......................................................................5,069 4,621 5,565
Inventories .........................................................................
5,384 4,531 4,760
Other current assets .......................................................... 1,224 3,092 852
Total current assets....................................................... 13,922 12,952 11,935
Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).............................. 22,272 19,880 20,936
Accumulated depreciation ................................................. 5,412 4,727 5,629
Net property, plant, and equipment ................................... 16,860 15,153 15,307
Other assets ......................................................................1,511 3,311 1,361
Total assets .......................................................................
$32,293 $31,416 $28,603
Accounts payable............................................................... $ 5,779 $ 4,956 $ 4,684
Current portion of long-term debt......................................504 863 975
Accrued expenses .............................................................. 1,633 1,288 1,545
Income taxes & other ......................................................... 304 1,207 319
Total current liabilities .................................................. 8,220 8,314 7,523
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities........................ 2,010 1,815 1,451
Long-term debt.................................................................. 9,034 10,155 10,186
Total liabilities ..............................................................19,264 20,284 19,160
Common stock ...................................................................74 76 76
Additional paid-in capital.................................................. 1,810 1,530 1,256
Retained earnings ............................................................. 11,145 9,526 8,111
Shareholders’ equity...................................................... 13,029 11,132 9,443
Total liabilities and net worth ............................................ $32,293 $31,416 $28,603

Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................................... 9.240 9.094 6.722
Inventory turnover rate.....................................................5.840 6.266 5.357
Accounts payable turnover rate ....................................... 5.441 5.728 5.444
Accrued expenses turnover rate ....................................... 28.683 32.628 24.214
Taxes payable/Tax expense...............................................
26.527% 122.663% 37.485%
Dividends per share .........................................................
$ 0.310 $ 0.260 $ 0.240
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...................... 3,012 2,671 3,189
CAPEX/Sales ....................................................................
6.431% 6.356% 8.524%
 The Projection Process
Steps in Projection (Target)
1 Receivables: $5,650 = $52,204 (Sales)/9.24 (Receivable turnover).
2 Inventories: $6,001 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.84 (Inventory turnover).
3 Other current assets: no change.
4 PP&E: $25,629 = $22,272 (Prior year’s balance) + $3,357 (Capital expenditure
estimate: estimated sales of $52,204 = 6.431% CAPEX/sales percentage).
5 Accumulated depreciation: $6,822 = $5,412 (Prior balance) + $1,410 (Depreciation
estimate).
6 Net PP&E: $18,807 = $25,629 - $6,822.
7 Other long-term assets: no change.
8 Accounts payable: $6,441 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.441 (Payable
turnover).
9 Current portion of long-term debt: amount reported in long-term debt footnote
as the current maturity for 2006.
10 Accrued expenses: $1,820 $52,204 (Sales)/28.683 (Accrued expense turnover).
11 Taxes payable: $352 = $1,328 (Tax expense) x 26.527% (Tax payable/Tax
expense).
12 Deferred income taxes and other liabilities: no change.
13 Long-term debt: $8,283 = $9,034 (Prior year’s long-term debt) - $751 (Scheduled
current maturities from step 9).
14 Common stock: no change.
15 Additional paid-in capital: no change.
16 Retained earnings: $13,054 = $11,145 (Prior year’s retained earnings) + $2,185
(Projected net income) - $276 (Estimated dividends of $0.31 per share x 891
million shares).
17 Cash: amount needed to balance total liabilities and equity less steps (1)–(7).
 The Projection Process
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
Forecasting 2006 2005
(in millions) Step Estimate
Cash .......................................................................... 17 $ 1,402 $ 2,245
Receivables ............................................................... 1 5,650 5,069
Inventories................................................................. 2 6,001 5,384
Other current assets .................................................. 3 1,224 1,224
Total current assets ..................................... 14,277 13,922
Property, plant, and equipment.................................. 4 25,629 22,272
Accumulated depreciation ......................................... 5 6,822 5,412
Net property, plant, and equipment ........................... 6 18,807 16,860
Other assets .............................................................. 7 1,511 1,511
Total assets ................................................ $34,595 $32,293
Accounts payable....................................................... 8 $ 6,441 $ 5,779
Current portion of long-term debt.............................. 9 751 504
Accrued expenses ...................................................... 10 1,820 1,633
Income taxes & other ................................................. 11 352 304
Total current liabilities.................................... 9,364 8,220
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities................ 12 2,010 2,010
Long-term debt.......................................................... 13 8,283 9,034
Total liabilities ............................................. 19,657 19,264
Common stock ........................................................... 14 74 74
Additional paid-in capital.......................................... 15 1,810 1,810
Retained earnings ..................................................... 16 13,054 11,145
Shareholders’ equity ...................................... 14,938 13,029
Total liabilities and net worth......................... $34,595 $32,293
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.................... 9.240 9.240
Inventory turnover rate.................................... 5.840 5.840
Accounts payable turnover rate ....................... 5.441 5.441
Accrued expenses turnover rate ...................... 28.683 28.683
Taxes payable/Tax expense............................. 26.527% 26.527%
Dividends per share......................................... $ 0.310 $ 0.310
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions......... 3,357 3,012
CAPEX/Sales ................................................. 6.431% 6.431%
 PROSES PROYEKSI
Proyeksi Laporan Neraca

Jika perkiraan saldo kas jauh lebih tinggi atau lebih rendah,
penyesuaian lebih lanjut dapat dilakukan untuk:

1. menginvestasikan kelebihan uang tunai dalam surat

berharga
2. mengurangi hutang jangka panjang dan / atau ekuitas
secara proporsional sehingga menjaga tingkat leverage
keuangan konsisten dengan tahun-tahun sebelumnya.
 The Projection Process
Target Corporation Projected Statement of Cash Flows
 PROSES PROYEKSI
Analisis Sensitivitas

• Asumsi proyeksi bervariasi untuk menemukan

mereka dengan efek terbesar pada proyeksi laba
dan arus kas
• Periksa variabel yang berpengaruh secara dekat
• Siapkan skenario yang diharapkan, optimis, dan
pesimis untuk mengembangkan berbagai
kemungkinan hasil
 Penerapan Analisis Prospektif dalam Model
Valuasi Pendapatan Residual

Model penilaian pendapatan residual mendefinisikan nilai ekuitas pada

saat t sebagai jumlah nilai buku saat ini dan nilai sekarang dari
semua sisa pendapatan yang diharapkan di masa depan:

di mana BVt adalah nilai buku pada akhir periode t, RIt + n adalah sisa pendapatan
pada periode t + n, dan k adalah biaya modal (lihat Bab 1). Penghasilan residual
pada waktu t didefinisikan sebagai laba bersih komprehensif dikurangi biaya pada
nilai buku awal, yaitu, RIt = NIt - (k x BVt - 1).
 Penerapan Analisis Prospektif dalam Model Valuasi
Pendapatan Residual

Dalam bentuk yang paling sederhana, kita dapat melakukan

penilaian dengan memproyeksikan parameter berikut:
• Pertumbuhan penjualan
• Bagian laba bersih (Laba bersih / Penjualan).
• Menghasilkan modal kerja bersih (Penjualan / WC Bersih).
• Fixed-assets turnover (Penjualan / Aktiva tetap).
• Financial leverage (Aset operasi / Ekuitas). -Biaya modal
ekuitas
9-18
 Tren Penggerak Nilai

Model penilaian Penghasilan Residual mendefinisikan sisa pendapatan

sebagai: RIt = NIt - (k X BVt-1) = (ROEt - k) X BVt-1
,dimana ROE = NI / BVt-1

• Harga saham hanya berdampak selama ROE ≠ k

• Nilai pemegang saham dibuat selama ROE> k
• ROE adalah penggerak nilai seperti komponennya Net Profit Margin,
Perputaran Aset,dan Leverage keuangan.
• Dua pengamatan yang relevan yaitu ROE cenderung kembali ke
ekuilibrium jangka panjang dan pembalikan tidak lengkap.
Tren Penggerak Nilai
Reversion of ROE
Tren Penggerak Nilai
Reversion of Net Profit Margin
Tren Penggerak Nilai
Reversion of Total Asset Turnover
That’s all. Thank you!
Any Questions?