Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Certainty
Response
Early Warning Surveillance
Epidemic
Early cases
Sentinel cases
Environmental observations
Climate forecasts
Time
Lessons Learned from Famine
Early Warning Systems
Data
– Spatial and temporal coverage of critical weather
variables
Methods
– Simple correlation; trend analysis; etc.
Acceptability / credibility
– Timely; relevant; compatible with existing
decision-making protocols; accessible
Context
– Early warning systems are not contingent on
climate information alone
Geographical Spread of Dengue
Fever in SEA Region
Countries in SEA Region reporting Dengue in 2003 and in 2007
Prediction of Possible Health
Outcomes
100
8 9 10
90 17
80 No
70
60
50
92 91 90
40 83
30
20
Sheridan, 2007 10
0 Yes
Dayton Phila. Phoenix Toronto
Cholera
Malaria
Dengue fever
Japanese encephalitis
Influenza
Leptospirosis
Rift valley fever (Major zoonosis)
Borreliosis (Tick-borne)
Others