Chapter 7

Business Valuation
PT Kalbe Farma
• Aisyah Lintang Kirana
• Patricia Tri Surbakti
• Willa Maharani
 Outline

01 Metode DDM

02 Metode DCF

03 Metode Price Multiple

 FINANCIAL PROFILE
merupakan forecasted dividend atas laba tahun
Dividend Growth Rate calculation (F) *in billion Rupiah 2018, 2019, dan 2020

Div 2014 di Div 2016 di

Div 2015 di annual report
Forecast Annual report Annual report 2018F 2019F 2020F
2016
2015 2017

Dividend 891 891 1.031 1.123,61 1.173,05 1.229,36

Neti Income (Net Profit) 2.072 2.025 2.291 2.631,42 2.747,20 2.879,06
Div payout ratio 43% 44% 45% 42,70% 42,70% 42,70%
Rentention ratio 57% 56% 55% 57,30% 57,30% 57,30%

laba bersih setelah pajak 2.066,02 2.004,24 2.299,83 2.631,42 2.747,20 2.879,06
jumlah ekuitas 9.764 10.938 12.464 15.516,60 17.159,26 18.885,04
ROE 21,16% 18,32% 18,45% 16,96% 16,01% 15,25%

Div Growth Rate =

Retention ratio x ROE 12,06% 10,26% 10,15% 9,72% 9,17% 8,74%
Average growth 2016 9,21% 2018
 FINANCIAL PROFILE
2015

2016

2017

2016 2017 2018

 FINANCIAL ASSUMPTION

Information Amount Sources

Cost of Capital BI rate (risk free rate)
beta
5,75%
1,17
BI Website
reuters
Calculation Market Return 9,19% ROI on IHSG (YTD)
k (Cost of Capital) 9,77%
DISCOUNTED
DIVIDEND
MODEL
Business Valuation - DDM

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

 DDM Calculation
Information Amount Sources
BI rate (risk free rate) 5,75% BI Website
beta 1,17 reuters
Market Return 9,19% ROI on IHSG (YTD)
k (Cost of Capital) 9,77%

*in Billion Rupiah 2018F 2019F 2020F

KLBF Value 198.539,09 207.274,81 217.224,00
outstanding share 2018 46,88 46,88 46,88
Stock intrinsic value 4.235,05 4.421,39 4.633,62
stock market value as of 12
1.270,00
Oct 2018
undervalue 2.965,05
2015 recommendation
2016 2017 BUY
2018 2019
DISCOUNTED
CASH FLOW
Business Valuation – DCF
Business Valuation – DCF
PRICE MULTIPLES
CURRENT PRICE MULTIPLES RATIO
 PRICE EARNINGS RATIO
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net Profit 2.299.734.572.559 2.403.605.933.399 2.578.786.790.175 2.692.253.408.943 2.821.481.572.572
WA Shares Outstanding 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110
EPS 49,06 51,28 55,01 57,43 60,19
Market Value 1515 1690 1295 1489 1713
Price Earnings Ratio 30,88 32,96 23,54 25,93 28,45

The price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that
measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. The price-
earnings ratio is also sometimes known as the or the earnings multiple. In
essence, the price-earnings ratio indicates the dollar amount an investor can
expect to invest in a company in order to receive one dollar of that company’s
earnings. Generally speaking, a high P/E ratio indicates that investors expect
higher earnings.
 PRICE TO BOOK RATIO
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Equity 12.463.847.141.085 13.894.031.782.689 15.516.595.815.437 17.159.258.343.530 18.885.036.472.200
WA Shares Outstanding 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110
Book Value 266 296 331 366 403
Market Value 1515 1690 1295 1489 1713
Price to Book Ratio 5,6977 5,7017 3,9122 4,0683 4,2510

P/B ratio examines market capitalization in relation to the book value of a company as shown on its balance
sheet. The P/B ratio has been favored by value investors for decades and is widely used by market analysts.
Traditionally, any value under 1.0 is considered a good P/B value, indicating a potentially undervalued stock.
However, value investors often consider stocks with a P/B value under 3.0.

P/B ratio should not be used as a single evaluation of a stock because, while a low P/B can indeed reveal an
undervalued stock, it can also indicate a company with serious underlying problems.
 PRICE TO SALES RATIO
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales 19.374.230.957.505 20.182.120.166.616 20.989.404.973.281 21.912.938.792.105 22.964.759.854.126
WA Shares Outstanding 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110 46.875.122.110
Sales Ratio 413 431 448 467 490
Market Value 1515 1690 1295 1489 1713
Price to Sales Ratio 3,6655 3,9252 2,8921 3,1857 3,4958

Investors are always seeking ways to compare the value of stocks.

The price to sales ratio (Price/Sales or P/S) provides a simple
approach: take the company's market capitalization (the number of
shares multiplied by the share price) and divide it by the company's
total sales over the past 12 months. The lower the ratio, the more
attractive the investment. As easy as it sounds, price-to-sales provides
a useful measure for sizing up stocks. But investors need to be mindful
of the ratio's potential pitfalls and possible unreliability.
CONCLUSION
We recommend that
investor should BUY
KLBF shares