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Spring, 2010
Dragon Tang
Lectures 13 & 14
Equity Valuation Models
March 9&11, 2010
Readings: Chapter 18
Practice Problem Sets: 1,5,7,14, 16,17
Objectives:
• Book Value
• Liquidation Value
• Replacement Cost
market price
Tobin' s Q
replacemen t cost
E ( D1 ) E ( P1 )
V0
1 k
Multi-period Case:
D1 D2 DH PH
V0 ...
1 k 1 k 2
1 k H
D1 D2 D3
V0 ...
1 k 1 k 2
1 k 3
D0 1 g D0 1 g D0 1 g
2 3
V0 ...
1 k 1 k 2
1 k 3
D0 1 g D1
V0 , gk
kg kg
D1
If V0 = P0 : k g
P0
Dividend Capital
Yield Gains Yield
D0 1 g D0 1 0 D1
If g = 0: V0
kg k 0 k
Perpetuity
Chapter 18: Equity Valuation
FIN 2808, Spring 10 - Tang 13
Implications of this Model
D1
V0
k g
• If D1 increases, then V0 increases.
• If k decreases, then V0 increases.
• If g increases, then V0 increases.
• If D1 increases X%, then V0 will
increase X%.
• g = the capital gains yield
Chapter 18: Equity Valuation
FIN 2808, Spring 10 - Tang 14
Dividend Payout Ratio
and
Plowback Ratio
g ROE b
Where:
D1 E1 ( 1-b)
P0
k g k-(ROE b)
E1
P0 PVGO
k
Present value Present value of growth
no-growth Opportunities
(b=0 or ROE=k) PVGO > 0 if ROE>k
PVGO <0 if ROE<k
Chapter 18: Equity Valuation
FIN 2808, Spring 10 - Tang 19
Estimating Growth
Example: Takeover Target has a plowback ratio of 60% and an
ROE of 10%. If it expects earnings to be $ 5 per share, what is
the present value of Takeover’s growth opportunities if the
appropriate capitalization rate is 15%? What is the PVGO?
P0 1 PVGO
1
E1 k E1
k
E1
If PVGO = 0: P 0
k
Chapter 18: Equity Valuation
FIN 2808, Spring 10 - Tang 24
Numerical Example: No Growth
P0 1 b
E1 k ROE b
P/E ratio rises with ROE but not necessarily with b
P/E
ROE>k
1/k
ROE<k
BUT
D1 D2 D3 D4 P E EPS
V0
1 k 1 k 2
1 k 3
1 k 4
P
VM E
E
where
1
P/ E
E P
and E P is the earnings yield
• Price-to-book
• Price-to-cash flow
• Price-to-sales
• Present Value of Free Cash Flow