Inferential Statistics

Sample
Sample

Population Sample

Sample

Draw inferences about the

larger group
 data

Are our inferences valid?…Best we can do is to calculate probability

about inferences
Samples and Populations
• Random samples are drawn
from a population (Part A)
• The administration of the IV
causes the samples to differ
significantly (Part B)
• The experimenter
generalizes the results from
the experiment to the
general population (Part C)
 Hypothesis Testing
• The process of deciding statistically
whether the findings of an
investigation reflect chance or real
effects at a given level of probability.

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Elements of Testing hypothesis
• Null Hypothesis
• Alternative hypothesis
• Identify level of significance
• Degrees of Freedom
• Test statistic
• Identify p-value / confidence interval
• Conclusion
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 Hypothesis Testing

H0: There is no association between the

exposure and disease of interest

H1: There is an association between the

exposure and disease of interest

Note: With prudent skepticism, the null hypothesis

is given the benefit of the doubt until the data
convince us otherwise.
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 Errors in Decision Making

– Type 1 error: observing a difference

when in truth there is none
– Type 2 error: failing to observe a
difference where there is one.

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Four possible outcomes of any epidemiologic study:
REALITY
YOUR H0 True H1 True
DECISION (No assoc.) (Yes assoc.)
Do not reject H0 Correct Failing to find a
(not stat. sig.) decision difference when
one exists
Reject H0 Finding a Correct decision
(stat. sig.) difference when
there is none
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t test independent
To find out whether a new serum would arrest leukaemia. 16 patients who
had all reached an advanced stage of the disease were selected. Eight patients received
the treatment and eight did not. The survival was taken from the time the experiment
was conducted.
x x2 y y2
2.1 4.41 4.2 17.64
3.2 10.24 5.1 26.01
3.0 9.00 5.0 25.00
2.8 7.84 4.6 21.16
2.1 4.41 3.9 15.21
1.2 1.44 4.3 18.49
1.8 3.24 5.2 27.04
1.9 3.61 3.9 15.21

∑x= 18.1 ∑x2 = 44.49 ∑y= 36.2 ∑y2 = 165.76

n1 = 8 n2 = 8
Mean x = 2.26 Mean y = 4.52
SS1 = ∑x2 (∑x)2 SS2 = ∑y 2 (∑y)2
n1 n2
SS1 = 44.19 – [(18.1)2 /8] SS2 = 165.76 – [(36.2)2 /8]

SS1= 3.24 SS2= 1.96

t = 7.43
 Look up a

Look up df
The t Test for Correlated Samples
• If you used correlated groups such as matched pairs,
repeated measures, or natural pairs for your design, then
you will need to use the t test for correlated samples.
• Calculating t by hand –
– The formula for the correlated t test is as follows:

• In words, t equals the mean of x minus the mean of y,

divided by the standard error of the deviation scores.
The t-Test for correlated samples
An experimental study was conducted on the
effect of programmed materials in English
on performance of 3 selected students.
Before the program was implemented the
pretest was administered and after 5 months
the same instrument was used to get the
post test results. The following is the result
of the experiment:
Before After Diff D2
5 7 2 4
7 8 1 1
3 3 0 0
∑D= 3 ∑D2 = 5
D =1

D
t= t = 1
t = 1.732

√
∑D2 (∑D)2

√
n 5 (3)2
n(n-1) 3
3(3-1)
 Look up a

Look up df
A study was conducted to compare the
effectiveness of two teaching methods in statistics.
The first method is method A and the second is via
method B. A group of 15 students were randomly
chosen to undergo method A and a group of 12
students were taken to undergo method B. Below is
the results of the post test.

Mean1= 86 s1^2 = 9 n1=15

Mean2= 84 s2^2= 36 n2=12

Assuming that the distributions were approximately

normal and with 0.01 level of significance, is there a
significant difference between two methods?
One Sampled t test

According the the U.S. Department of Education, full-

time graduate students receive an average salary of
$12,800. The dean of graduate studies at a large state
university in PA claims that his graduate students earn
more than this. He surveys 16 randomly selected
students and finds their average salary is $13,445 with a
standard deviation of $1800. With alpha = 0.05, is the
dean’s claim correct?
Analysis of Variance

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The Logic and the Process of Analysis
of Variance

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 What if the salesman wanted to compare another
type of car, Pickup Trucks in addition to the
SUV’s and Mid-size vehicles?

Level n Mean StDev

Midsize 28 27.101 mpg 2.629 mpg
SUV 26 20.423 mpg 2.914 mpg
Pickup 8 23.125 mpg 2.588 mpg
 Yes, we see that no two of these
confidence intervals overlap,
therefore the means are
significantly different.
This is the question that the
ANOVA test answers
Do these sample means look significantly
mathematically.
different from each other?
 More Confidence Intervals

Not Significant
Significant

What if the confidence intervals were

different? Would these confidence intervals
be significantly different?
Analysis of Variance and Post Tests
• The null hypothesis for ANOVA states that for the
general population there are no mean differences
among the treatments being compared; H0: μ1 =
μ2 = μ3 = . . .
• When the null hypothesis is rejected, the
conclusion is that there are significant mean
differences.
• However, the ANOVA simply establishes that
differences exist, it does not indicate exactly
which treatments are different.
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Analysis of Variance and Post Tests
(cont.)
• With more than two treatments, this creates a
problem. Specifically, you must follow the
ANOVA with additional tests, called post tests, to
determine exactly which treatments are different
and which are not.
• The Scheffe test and Tukey=s HSD are examples
of post tests.
• These tests are done after an ANOVA where H0 is
rejected with more than two treatment conditions.
The tests compare the treatments, two at a time, to
test the significance of the mean differences.
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 Measuring Effect Size for an
Analysis of Variance
• As with other hypothesis tests, an ANOVA
evaluates the significance of the sample mean
differences; that is, are the differences bigger than
would be reasonable to expect just by chance.
• With large samples, however, it is possible for
relatively small mean differences to be statistically
significant.
• Thus, the hypothesis test does not necessarily
provide information about the actual size of the
mean differences.
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 Measuring Effect Size for an
Analysis of Variance (cont.)
• To supplement the hypothesis test, it is recommended
that you calculate a measure of effect size.
• For an analysis of variance the common technique for
measuring effect size is to compute the percentage of
variance that is accounted for by the treatment effects.

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 A sari-sari store is selling 4 brands of shampoo. The
owner is interested if there is a significant difference in the
average sales for one week. The following data are recorded.
Is there a significant difference between the sales of four
shampoos. Use alpha level of 0.05

x1 (x1)^2 x2 (x2)^2 x3 (x3)^2 x4 (x4)^2

7 49 9 81 2 4 4 16
3 9 8 64 3 9 5 25
5 25 8 64 4 16 7 49
6 36 7 49 5 25 8 64
9 81 6 36 6 36 3 9
4 16 9 81 4 16 4 16
3 9 10 100 2 4 5 25
37 225 57 475 26 110 36 204

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CF=(∑x1 + ∑x2 + ∑x3 + ∑x4 )2 / n1 + n2 + n3 + n4
CF= (37 + 57 + 26 + 36)2 / 7 + 7 + 7 + 7
CF= 869. 14
TSS = ∑x12 + ∑x22 + ∑x32 + ∑x42 - CF
TSS= 225 + 475 + 110 + 204 - 869. 14
TSS = 144.86
BSS = (∑x1 )2 + ( ∑x2 )2 + ( ∑x3 )2 + ( ∑x4 )2 - CF
n1 n2 n3 n4
BSS = 72.28

WSS = TSS – BSS

= 144.86 – 72.28
= 72.58

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 Analysis of Variance Table

Source of Variation Degrees of Sum of Mean

Freedom Squares Squares F value

Computed Tabular

Between
Groups (k-1) 3 72.28 24.09

Within Groups 7.98 3.01

(N-1) – (k-1) 24 72.58 3.02
Total N-1 27

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