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Reliability & Uncertainty

J. Oloba Z.
Slide Outline
 Reliability

 Uncertainty

 Legal aspects
Dassault Falcon 20s
• On the evening of April 17, 1973, 14 Dassault -
Falcon 20s owned by a little-known start-up
company took off from Memphis International

• And successfully delivered 186 packages to 25 U.S.

cities by the following morning.

• An idea that had first taken root eight years earlier

in a term paper by a Yale University student now
had taken flight across the darkened American

• Eventually it reshaped an industry and set the

standard for one of the most important goals of
every business in the world — reliability.
What is reliability?
• Consistency of measurement

• The extent to which a measurement instrument

can differentiate among subjects

• Reliability is relative
What is reliability?
• In the manufacturing world, it is simply:

• What is the likelihood that my

manufacturing line will produce quality
product at full rate for the next month
when operated within its design

• Reliability in this context is the probability

that an item will do what the user needs it
to do, under stated conditions for a
specified period of time
What is reliability?
• “Capability doesn’t have anything to
do with reliability. Some people
don’t have as much capability as
others have, but they make up for
their lack by being reliable.” —

• John Wooden
What is reliability?
• Indeed, nothing is more basic, more
foundational to business, than reliability.

• Brands rise and fall on reliability.

• Chester
What is reliability?
• That’s why brands spend so much time,
effort, and money trying to convince us
that we can always count on them.

• Indeed, reliability is central to just about

every advertising message you’ve ever

• Chester
What is reliability?
• Look at the promises of reliability in
renowned advertising slogans like

1. “It Takes a Licking and Keeps on Ticking”

2. “It Keeps Going and Going and Going . .
.” (Energizer),
3. “It’s Everywhere You Want to Be” (Visa), and
4. “A Diamond Is Forever” (De Beers).
5. “Everywhere you go” (………)

• Chester
What is reliability?
• If the brand delivers on the promise, it
grows and thrives in the marketplace.

• If it fails, it suffers. And if it fails

consistently, it dies.

• Chester
What is reliability?
• Toyota became the envy of the auto industry by
producing vehicles that delivered reliability.

• At one point, the automaker used the slogan,

– “The best-built cars in the world.”

• And it lived up to that promise by churning out

reasonably priced, nice-looking cars that got
good gas mileage and didn’t cost much to

• Chester
What is reliability?
• Then, in 2009, reports surfaced that some
Toyota models had problems with their

• Not only that, but the company appeared

slow in addressing the problems.

• Toyota’s reputation for reliability took a

hit in the marketplace, and it had to
regroup and begin reproving itself to the
car-buying public.

• Chester
What is reliability?
• Very few businesses — none that we can
think of — can survive (much less thrive)
with employees who consistently prove
themselves unreliable.

• We all want workers we can count on to

show up on time and prepared to do
their work, whether they will be
supervised or not.
What is reliability?
• And for individuals whose primary lifeline
is self-esteem,

• Apologies become an appeasement rather

than an expression of sorrow or regret.

• “I’m sorry you feel that way” and

• “I’m sorry you were disappointed” take the

place of:

• “I was wrong and I’ll make sure it never

happens again. Please forgive me.”
What is reliability?
Being reliable
• Means that you do what you promised to do and
that others can count on you.

• It is a positive social character trait.

• People don't like to deal with those who are


• They'd rather give their business and rewards to

someone they can count on.

• Also, the reliable person feels good, knowing that

he or she is trusted.

• Ron Kurtus (2013)

What is reliability?
Questions you may have are:

• What does it mean to be reliable?

• What is being unreliable?

• How does reliability pay?

• Ron Kurtus (2013)

What is reliability?
• The notion of reliability helps shed light on a
business’s decisions and practices, situating
them within a picture of the business’s
Being reliable
• A reliable person is one who has a track record
of doing what he or she promised to do.

• If a person continually completes tasks she

promised to do, she is then considered reliable.
Being reliable
• If a person says he will show up at 10:30, and
he is known to be reliable, you can count on
him to be on time.

• Being considered reliable means that you are

conscientious and keep your promises.

• A reliable person does not make excuses.

Being unreliable
• You cannot count on a person who is known to
be unreliable to follow through on what he or
she has promised to do.

• A person may promise to pick you up at the

airport but then not show up, because "he

• Or a person may come to a meeting late,

because she got involved in some other activity
and lost track of time.
Reasons people are unreliable
• Personal situations

• The person may have lied to get out of an

uncomfortable or awkward situation and
never intended to do what he said.

• Something more important may have come

Reasons people are unreliable
• Business or work

• A person at work is often late on completing

assignments, either because they are too
difficult or he gets sidetracked with more
interesting activities.

• His boss and fellow workers consider him

Benefits of being reliable
• Trust leads to promotions

• The benefits of being reliable are that people

trust you and feel they can count on you.

• A reliable person will get and keep friends

much easier than someone who is careless in
personal relationships and can't be counted on
to keep his or her word.
Benefits of being reliable
• Trust leads to promotions

• A reliable worker will be trusted to do the job as

promised and can reap the rewards of raises
and promotions.

• A business that has a reputation of being

reliable or making reliable products will get
repeat and new business, as well as reducing
costs of rework or repair.
Negative side to being reliable
• On the negative side of being considered
reliable, there are situations where others can
soon take you for granted and not appreciate
your reliability.

• It is a trait of human nature that if something or

someone is very predictable, then those actions
are not appreciated.

• Although it is possible to be taken advantage of

by being reliable and predictable, in the long
run reliability is the best way to be.
Obtaining reliability
• Observers or raters

• Tests over time

• Different versions of the same test

• A test at one point in time

The Importance of Reliability in Business

• From providing a service

to developing customer
relationships, today’s
companies demand
dependability in all
The Importance of Reliability in Business
• Efficiency
• Reliable systems are efficient systems, and
efficiency is key to succeeding in today’s
competitive marketplace.

• These two terms describe different measures of

success, but both are equally essential.

• Reliability refers to a system’s ability to

consistently perform well, while efficiency
measures that system’s output within a given

• Fewer mistakes lead to greater efficiency over

The Importance of Reliability in Business

What goes around…….............?

The Importance of Reliability in Business
• Trust
• Do you have a strong team that customers can
rely on to get the job done?

• Most companies benefit far more from attracting

return customers than continually prospecting
for new business, only to see it walk away.

• Likewise, trust proves beneficial when dealing

with suppliers and service providers.

• Vendors should know that orders will always be

correct and will always arrive on time.
Fostering Reliability
• The Importance of Effective
• When you understand the critical role reliability
plays in every element of business success, you’ll
be eager to improve your reputation as a
dependable company.

• Start with effective communication.

• Keep customers in the loop, beginning with

complete transparency as you embark on your
business relationship.
Fostering Reliability
• The Importance of Effective
• Let consumers know the status of each
project and when you anticipate completion.

• Alert them immediately if anything changes.

• Communicate effectively and hold true to

your values; these simple priorities could pay
dividends down the road.
Fostering Reliability
• High-quality internet and phone service
strengthen communication by ensuring
your ability to immediately respond to
customer or vendor questions and

• Reliability benefits businesses at every

phase of the sales funnel, from initial
customer interactions to attracting repeat
Fostering Reliability
• Your company can best
achieve a reputation for
reliability by consistently
delivering exceptional
service — and by working
with reliable internet and
telephone service
 The term “uncertainty principle” suggests
some grand philosophical idea, like “you can
never be sure of anything”,

 Or “there are some things you can never be

sure of” and sometimes people use it as if
this is what is meant.
 We adopt a general definition of uncertainty
as being any deviation from the unachievable
ideal of completely deterministic knowledge
of the relevant system.

 We further propose to discriminate among

three dimensions of uncertainty: location,
level and nature of uncertainty.

 W.E. Walker , P. Harremoës , J. Rotmans ,

J.P. van der Sluijs , M.B.A. van Asselt , P.
Janssen & M.P. Krayer von Krauss
 Understanding the various dimensions of
uncertainty helps in identifying, articulating,
and prioritizing critical uncertainties,

 Which is a crucial step to more adequate

acknowledgement and treatment of
uncertainty in decision support endeavors

 And more focused research on complex,

inherently uncertain, policy issues.

 W.E. Walker , P. Harremoës , J. Rotmans , J.P.

van der Sluijs , M.B.A. van Asselt , P. Janssen
& M.P. Krayer von Krauss
 a situation in which
something is not known,
or something that is
not known or certain
 Cambridge Dictionary
“You cannot be certain about uncertainty” - -
- Frank Knight
 1. Decision making:

 Situation where the current state of knowledge is such

 (1) the order or nature of things is unknown,
 (2) the consequences, extent, or magnitude of
circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable,
 (3) credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot
be assigned.

 Although too much uncertainty is undesirable,

manageable uncertainty provides the freedom to
make creative decisions.

 Business Dictionary
 2. Information theory:
 Degree to which available choices or the
outcomes of possible alternatives are free
from constraints.

 3. Statistics:
 Situation where neither the probability
distribution of a variable nor its mode of
occurrence is known.

 Business Dictionary
Business uncertainty
 The main competition in business, in the past and
now, always comes from innovation.
 Pomerol (2018)

 Small-business managers face a wide range of


 Between handling employee issues, maintaining

product or service quality and trying to keep cash
flows positive, managers get pulled in multiple

 One of the hardest parts of managing a business is

that it's hard to know what could come up next.

 Lander (2018)
Business uncertainty
 This uncertainty, which comes in three types,
is one of the biggest issues facing small

• State Uncertainty
– State uncertainty refers to when a
business manager is unable to
determine what could happen as a
result of the business environment.

– It can also occur when you're unsure of

what laws the government might pass
that could impact your business.
Business uncertainty
 This uncertainty, which comes in three types,
is one of the biggest issues facing small

• Effect Uncertainty
– Once you've figured out what might happen,
effect uncertainty comes into play.

– It refers to when you can't figure out how

outside environmental events might affect your
business either now or in the future.

– If you run an outdoor event business, effect

uncertainty occurs when you know it's going to
rain but you don't know if it'll keep people
Business uncertainty
 This uncertainty, which comes in three types,
is one of the biggest issues facing small
• Response Uncertainty
– Once you know what effects a change in state
will have for your business, you can then plan a

– Response uncertainty refers to your inability to

be sure of how the market will react to the
actions that you take.

– For instance, if you move your outdoor event

indoors, you can't be sure that people will want
to be inside.
Response Approaches
 A defensive manager structures his business
within a narrow and specific niche that he
can defend in face of uncertainty.

 Prospectors accept uncertainty and are

constantly looking for new business
opportunities that can replace any areas that
get negatively impacted.
Causes of Uncertainty
Causes of Uncertainty

Logistic Operations
• Supply Chain
–Control systems
–External uncertainties
Causes of Uncertainty

Logistic Operations
• Transport uncertainty
–Demand and inventory
–Lack of coordination
–Delivery constraints
Causes of Uncertainty
• General causes
• Ignorance
• Indolence
• Both

• Application
• Financial markets
• New products
The igloo of uncertainty
The taxonomy of
uncertainties and decisions
Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty & the Law

Risk Reliability Uncertainty Legalities

ON On Off On
- Court cases
- No court cases

OFF Off On Off

- Court cases
- No court cases

Oloba (2018)
Whether in:
- Politics
- Social life
- Business
- Workplace
- Religion
- Etc…,

and Uncertainty

is your god!
“Life without risk
issues, reliability
issues, and
uncertainty issues
is boring”
Easy Life!