Probability: Living with the Odds

6D Discussion Paragraph

1 web
50. Vital Significance
51. Recent Polls
52. Genetically Modified Foods
1 world
53. Statistical Significance
54. Significant Experiment?
55. Margin of Error
56. Confidence Intervals
57. Hypothesis Testing
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.
Unit 7A

Fundamentals of
Probability

Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-3

Lotteries

 Lotteries are big business and a major revenue

source for many governments. By 2009, all but
seven states in the US had some type of lottery,
generating a national total of more than $52 billion
in sales.
 About 1/3 of that money ($17 billion) ends up as
state revenue, with the rest going to prizes and
expenses.
 Lotteries present many lessons in probability, and
lottery stats can fuel great debate over whether
lotteries are an appropriate way for governments
to generate revenue.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 7-4
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Definitions
 Outcomes are the most basic possible results of
observations or experiments.

 An event consists of one or more outcomes that

share a property of interest.

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Expressing Probability
The probability of an event,
1 Certain
expressed as P(event), is
always between 0 and 1
(inclusive). Likely

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 0.5 50-50 Chance

A probability of 0 means the Unlikely

event is impossible and a
probability of 1 means the 0 Impossible
event is certain.
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Theoretical Method for
Equally Likely Outcomes
Step 1: Count the total number of possible
outcomes.
Step 2: Among all the possible outcomes, count
the number of ways the event of interest,
A, can occur.
Step 3: Determine the probability, P(A).
number of ways A can occur
P ( A) =
total number of outcomes

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Outcomes and Events

Assuming equal chance of having a boy or girl at
birth, what is the probability of having two girls and
two boys in a family of four children?

Scenarios Possible Combinations

All 4 Girls {GGGG} Of the 16 possible
3 Girls {GGGB}, {GGBG}, outcomes, 6 have the
and 1 Boy {GBGG}, {BGGG}
2 Girls {GGBB}, {GBGB},
event two girls and two
and 2 {GBBG}, {BGBG}, boys.
Boys {BBGG}, {BGGB}
1 Girl and {GBBB}, {BGBB}, P(2 girls) = 6/16 = 0.357
3 Boys {BBGB}, {BBBG}
All 4 Boys {BBBB}

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Playing Card Probabilities
CN (1)
 There are 52 cards in a standard deck. There are
four suits, hearts, diamonds, spades and clubs.
Each suit has card for the numbers 2 through 10
plus a jack, queen, king, and ace (for a total of 13
cards in each suit). Notice that 2 suits are red
and 2 suits are black.

 1. If you draw one card from a standard deck,

what is the probability that it is a spade?

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Guessing Birthdays
CN (2)
 You select a person at random from a large
conference group.

 2. What is the probability that the person has a

birthday in July?

 Assume 365 days a year.

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Two Boys and a Girl
CN (3)

 3. What is the probability that a family with three

children has two boys and one girl?

 Assume boys and girls are equally likely.

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Empirical and Subjective Probabilities

An empirical probability is based on observations
or experiments. It is the relative frequency of the
event of interest.

A subjective probability is an estimate based on

experience or intuition.

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500 Year Flood
CN (4)
 Geological records indicate that a river has
crested above a particular high flood level just
four times in the past 2000 years.

 What is the empirical probability that the river will

crest above this flood level next year?

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Empirical Coin Tossing
CN (5)
 If you are interested only in the number of heads in coin
tosses, then the possible events when tossing two coins
are 0 heads, 1 head, and 2 heads. Suppose you repeat a
two-coin toss 100 times and your results are as follows.
 0 heads occurs 22 times
 1 head occurs 51 times
 2 heads occurs 27 times

 Compare the empirical probabilities to the theoretical

probabilities.
5. Do you have reason to suspect that the coins are unfair?

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Three Types of Probabilities

Theoretical probability

The chance of
rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6.

Empirical probability Subjective probability

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Three Types of Probabilities

Theoretical probability

She’s a 92% free throw

shooter for the season.

Empirical probability Subjective probability

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Three Types of Probabilities

Theoretical probability

There’s about a 70%

chance she will go out
on a date with me.

Empirical probability Subjective probability

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Which Type of Probability?
CN (6a-c)
 6. Identify the method that resulted in the
following statements:
 a. I’m 100% certain that you’ll be happy with this
car.
 b. Based on data from the Department of
Transportation, the chance of dying in an
automobile accident during a one-year period is 1
in 7000
 c. The chance of rolling a 7 with a twelve-sided
die is 1/12.
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Probability of an Event Not Occurring

If the probability of an event A is P(A), then the

probability that event A does not occur is 1 – P(A).

Since the probability of a family of four children

having two girls and two boys is 0.375, what is the
probability of a family of four children not having
two girls and two boys?

P(not 2 girls) = 1 – 0.375 = 0.625

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Not Two Boys
CN (7)

 7. What is the probability that a randomly chosen

family with three children does not have two boys
and one girl?

 Assume boys and girls are equally likely.

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Making a Probability Distribution

A probability distribution represents the
probabilities of all possible events. To make a
probability distribution, do the following:
Step 1: List all possible outcomes. Use a table
or figure if it is helpful.
Step 2: Identify outcomes that represent the
same event and determine the
probability of each event.
Step 3: Make a table listing each event and
probability.
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A Probability Distribution
All possible outcomes and a probability distribution for
the sum when two dice are rolled are shown below.
Possible outcomes

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Tossing Three Coins
CN (8)

 8. Make a table of the probability distribution for

the number of heads that occur when three coins
are tossed simultaneously.

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Two Dice Distribution
CN (9)

 Make a probability distribution for the sum of the

dice when two dice are rolled.

 9. What is the most probable sum?

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Odds
Odds are the ratio of the probability that a particular
event will occur to the probability that it will not
occur.

P ( A)
The odds for an event A are .
P (not A)

P (not A)
The odds against an event A are .
P ( A)

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Two Coin Odds
CN (10a-b)

 10a. What are the odds for getting two heads in

tossing two coins?
 b. What are the odds against it?

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Horse Race Payoff
CN (11)
 At a horse race, the odds on Blue Moon are given
as 7 to 2.

11. If you bet $10 and Blue Moon wins, how much
will you gain?

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Quick Quiz
CN (13)
 13. Please answer the 10 quick quiz multiple
choice questions on p.425.

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Homework
7A
 Discussion Paragraph 6D
 P. 425-6: 1-12
 1 web
 70. Blood Groups

 71. Accidents

 1 world
 72. Probability in the News

 73. Probability in your Life

 74. Gambling Odds

 Class Notes 1-13

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